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3/9 - 3/12 Spring Storm


Tom

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5 minutes ago, centralweather44 said:

Some how this doesn’t surprise me. Caving to the GFS? How does it treat Lincoln?

We do decent but on the edge. Much less in Omaha. Just another step towards the GFS. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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3 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Looking at the HRRR beyond a 18-24 hr lead time seems risky.

Yeah NAM is already moving towards GFS and Euro. I imagine models will mostly be corrected by tomorrow morning.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Winter Storm Warning issued.

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and
  central, north central, northwest and west central Missouri.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
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2 hours ago, Tom said:

KC magnet???  0z EPS showing the dry northerly flow and the "bullseye" near KC proper...

1.png

 

2.png

NWS Hastings morning disco spent most of their time on the dry air cutting back on amounts in the north.  My location is right on the edge.  Maybe far enough south to get 5" or more.  Could also see 2-3" if the band is too far south and dry air continues to sag.  We'll take what we can get.

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Just started snowing here in the last 30 minutes.  I see by the 511 site that many places north and west of here are already snow covered.  I will be waiting anxiously this evening when the main band comes up from the southwest.  Will it just miss me to the south, or can it shift a little north?  

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3 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Funny.  He has the heaviest stuff southeast of the city.  NWS has it northwest of the city.  Gary's looks closest to the GFS, which I understand he tends to favor (and which has outperformed the Euro for the KC area this year).

I don’t get the NWS snow map either. All the models show the heaviest band over and south of the city but they have the band 2 counties north. I’m sure they will be changing their map or have egg on their face tomorrow 

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17 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Funny.  He has the heaviest stuff southeast of the city.  NWS has it northwest of the city.  Gary's looks closest to the GFS, which I understand he tends to favor (and which has outperformed the Euro for the KC area this year).

 

13 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

I don’t get the NWS snow map either. All the models show the heaviest band over and south of the city but they have the band 2 counties north. I’m sure they will be changing their map or have egg on their face tomorrow 

I am watching to see if that 2nd piece of energy misses us to the SE.  The NWS map is awful, it will be changed drastically this afternoon I bet. 

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