3/9 - 3/12 Spring Storm

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[Clinton]

6z EC

Mean

[mlgamer]

2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Haven’t seen this type of forecast this winter. 
 

Mother Nature says she was having some supply chain issues but is now going to make the deliveries for your area! Hopefully no last minute snags.  Good luck!

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z NAM.  Good hit right over my house.

[Andie]

As usual we missed our chance this weekend.  

[bud2380]

Models are really honing in on the south half of NE and IA and northern MO for this one.  RGEM below for illustration.

 

 

[bud2380]

GFS shifting further south this run.  

[winterfreak]

12z CMC Kuchera:

[someweatherdude]

48 hour trends GFS and CMC

 

[snowstorm83]

Don’t like how this trending for Nebraska, by 00z it’s going to be 1-3”

[gimmesnow]

8 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Don’t like how this trending for Nebraska, by 00z it’s going to be 1-3”

Looking worse and worse for me too in SE Wisconsin, my fellow victim of old man winter's neglect.

[Bellona]

At this point, unless it is going to be something double digits I'd just as soon not have any more snow. I'm ready for spring

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z Euro is up and running.  Let's see if the south trend of the other models continues.  I'm pretty happy where I am at now, but wouldn't want much more of a south shift. 

[mlgamer]

Old Man Winter this year is like the bad relative that shows up late for the family gathering and then won't leave...lol. Oh well, maybe some last minute stat padding...

[CentralNebWeather]

Local ABC Met. saying 5-10" south of I 80.  This is where I live.  Probably a pretty good start with changes still to come, one way or the other.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z Euro.  Little further south than previous runs, amounts have come down a few inches.  We'll see if this is also a trend or not in future runs.

[gabel23]

This afternoon's runs have not been kind to my area. I have been missed all winter so far and wouldn't be shocked if I get missed again. These clippers tend to throw a lot of curve balls before the event so I'm sure more changes are to come. 

[snowstorm83]

31 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z Euro.  Little further south than previous runs, amounts have come down a few inches.  We'll see if this is also a trend or not in future runs.

Thought that was 10:1 and then saw it was Kuchera 

[snowstorm83]

1" at LNK brings us all the way to 4.8" for the season, reports across town generally 1-2". I slept in until like 11 lol, but there was still around 1.5-2" outside of direct sunlight. It should be about completely gone by the end of the afternoon. It's always when there's a 30% chance of snow it overperforms, not when there's already snow accumulation forecasted 

Need 2.4" on Thursday to match the least snowiest season on record (7.2"). If that doesn't happen, there's a pretty good chance 2021-22 will take the top spot for the lowest season ever. 

Edit: whoops wrong thread

[GDR]

What falls now is just needed Moisture because it’s only gonna stick around for a day or two

[snowstorm83]

GEFS further south and weaker as well. Now 3.5" in Lincoln vs. 5" at 00z. Any further shifts and we're probably out of the game, 00z runs tonight are going to be scary. 

[CentralNebWeather]

42 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Thought that was 10:1 and then saw it was Kuchera 

I had to check it myself.  Not a great run of models today so far, except for the NAM.  This thing might have more surprises ahead.  

[OmahaSnowFan]

37 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

1" at LNK brings us all the way to 4.8" for the season, reports across town generally 1-2". I slept in until like 11 lol, but there was still around 1.5-2" outside of direct sunlight. It should be about completely gone by the end of the afternoon. It's always when there's a 30% chance of snow it overperforms, not when there's already snow accumulation forecasted 

Need 2.4" on Thursday to match the least snowiest season on record (7.2"). If that doesn't happen, there's a pretty good chance 2021-22 will take the top spot for the lowest season ever. 

Edit: whoops wrong thread

I don't mean to brag, but with our 2.8", we're up to 11.8" IMBY.

[CentralNebWeather]

3 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I don't mean to brag, but with our 2.8", we're up to 11.8" IMBY.

Whoa, my 2" last night brought us up to about 9" for the season.

[snowstorm83]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I had to check it myself.  Not a great run of models today so far, except for the NAM.  This thing might have more surprises ahead.  

NAM has fooled me several times being north and wet, especially in the 2-3 day range. Speaking of the devil, 18z NAM is coming in slightly south and weaker. 

[bud2380]

18z NAM

 

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings initial snow forecast, subject to updating and change.  Local Met. saying 5-10" so fairly close.

 

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Yawn. Looks like another 2-4" for Omaha.

The snow chances begin to slowly increase Wednesday afternoon,
but really get going Wednesday night, and linger through Thursday.
Models today have perhaps come into better agreement on the track
of the storm system, and have perhaps shifted just slightly
south. The evening commute should be OK Wednesday with flurries
mostly just beginning. The snow becomes moderate into the evening
and overnight and will definitely have an impact on the morning
commute Thursday with a few inches of snow on the ground at that
point. Winds during the event will be from the northeast gusting
up to 20 mph, so there could be a small chance of blowing an
drifting, but it could certainly be worse. Meanwhile, the snow
will end in northeast NE Thursday afternoon, and end along/south
of I80 early Thursday evening. Overall, the upcoming event feels
like a solid winter weather advisory with some travel impacts
expected. Our storm totals range from 2 to 6 inches, depending on
location, which matches well with both the 12z GEFS and EC
ensembles. The 25th/75th percentile ranges with the QPF we have
forecast will show 1 to 8 (with the highest amounts in southeast
NE). 8 inches seems like a bit of stretch to me, as even purely
NBM 75th percentile output still only shows amounts up to around
6.5 inches. The snow will be spread out over a 24 hour period so
that will help manage the impacts, despite what could be pretty
messy commute Thursday morning. 

[snowstorm83]

Lol omg the 18z GFS 

[bud2380]

GFS just shifted several hundred miles south.  Hard to trust that model right now.  It's had a very rough winter.  Hard to put much stock in it right now.  

[Jayhawker85]

1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

GFS just shifted several hundred miles south.  Hard to trust that model right now.  It's had a very rough winter.  Hard to put much stock in it right now.  

I believe this system will push south with strong high pressure pushing in fr the North. It looks like it’s going to be moving south of 1-80 and between 1-70 at the moment 

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings holding off on issuing Winter Storm Watch for now. Knowing them they’ll issue it during the storm. Their disco gives many reasons to issue one, but not ready yet. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

When this goes south, it will make it that much easier to warm up again to spring like temps right away. Already a 20+ degree difference in temps over the new snow and where it misses this coming weekend.

At this point, give me a blizzard or a big storm or just miss me and keep the spring temps around.

[snowstorm83]

The massive south jump only 60 hours out is just comical. 18z GEFS is another slashing of totals for Nebraska, looks good for KC. I hope it's wrong, but probably not with how this winter has gone. 

[someweatherdude]

3 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

The massive south jump only 60 hours out is just comical. 18z GEFS is another slashing of totals for Nebraska, looks good for KC. I hope it's wrong, but probably not with how this winter has gone. 

This pattern has been repeating this year. Models start off in NE and IA, then shift south as the storm approaches.   KC has benefitted to some degree.  But we've even had them push too far south as well.  I'm going to be watching with a fear that it will ultimately push too far south.  

[CentralNebWeather]

My NWS grid forecast. So 4-9” Wednesday/Wednesday night and more Thursday morning. 
 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[jaster220]

As much as I'd really like to move onto true spring, my in-laws are reporting "big snow". Knowing the connections, I'm expecting I'm not done with flakes here.

[snowstorm83]

The lag time between model disaster and NWS forecast updates is always depressing. Of course there's still time for further model changes and corrections but 4-8" is starting to look very unlikely. 

[Hawkeye]

The 18z Euro has shifted south again.

[Clinton]

18z Euro Control

Mean

[OmahaSnowFan]

1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said:

The lag time between model disaster and NWS forecast updates is always depressing. Of course there's still time for further model changes and corrections but 4-8" is starting to look very unlikely. 

That map doesn’t even match their forecast discussion from this afternoon where they basically said 2-6” 

[Bryan1117]

43 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The 18z Euro has shifted south again.

Just brutal... relieved that we somehow got to double digit snowfall for the season last night - it's time to stick a fork in Winter here. 

[Clinton]

0z GFS has a I-70 snowstorm targeting KC.

[gabel23]

I’m not surprised. I’ll now be rooting for a miss and an all time record season low of snow. Let this god forsaken winter end already. 

[gabel23]

The one thing the models have done an amazing job at this year is the consistent shift as we near the event. We have seen it all year. 

[jcwxguy]

Ukie score a win? One could only hope

 

[Tom]

2 hours ago, jcwxguy said:

Ukie score a win? One could only hope

 

0z Euro sorta agrees with the UKIE...at this point, another minimal stat padder is prob in the works around here unless this just craps out.

 

[Clinton]

6z models this morning still showing accumulating snow along the I-70 corridor with the heaviest snow around KC.

[Clinton]

EAX first guess at accumulations