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3/9 - 3/12 Spring Storm


Tom
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2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Haven’t seen this type of forecast this winter. 
 

50959B63-6264-4E0A-94E9-AE7BA601BFDD.png

Mother Nature says she was having some supply chain issues but is now going to make the deliveries for your area! Hopefully no last minute snags.  Good luck!

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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As usual we missed our chance this weekend.  🙁

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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8 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Don’t like how this trending for Nebraska, by 00z it’s going to be 1-3”

Looking worse and worse for me too in SE Wisconsin, my fellow victim of old man winter's neglect.

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Old Man Winter this year is like the bad relative that shows up late for the family gathering and then won't leave...lol. Oh well, maybe some last minute stat padding...

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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This afternoon's runs have not been kind to my area. I have been missed all winter so far and wouldn't be shocked if I get missed again. These clippers tend to throw a lot of curve balls before the event so I'm sure more changes are to come. 

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31 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z Euro.  Little further south than previous runs, amounts have come down a few inches.  We'll see if this is also a trend or not in future runs.

12Z Euro 3 7.png

Thought that was 10:1 and then saw it was Kuchera 😬

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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1" at LNK brings us all the way to 4.8" for the season, reports across town generally 1-2". I slept in until like 11 lol, but there was still around 1.5-2" outside of direct sunlight. It should be about completely gone by the end of the afternoon. It's always when there's a 30% chance of snow it overperforms, not when there's already snow accumulation forecasted 😂

Need 2.4" on Thursday to match the least snowiest season on record (7.2"). If that doesn't happen, there's a pretty good chance 2021-22 will take the top spot for the lowest season ever. 

Edit: whoops wrong thread

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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GEFS further south and weaker as well. Now 3.5" in Lincoln vs. 5" at 00z. Any further shifts and we're probably out of the game, 00z runs tonight are going to be scary. 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-central-total_snow_10to1-6978400.thumb.png.3489a1caff7f5113a64937bb8dc7a902.png

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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37 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

1" at LNK brings us all the way to 4.8" for the season, reports across town generally 1-2". I slept in until like 11 lol, but there was still around 1.5-2" outside of direct sunlight. It should be about completely gone by the end of the afternoon. It's always when there's a 30% chance of snow it overperforms, not when there's already snow accumulation forecasted 😂

Need 2.4" on Thursday to match the least snowiest season on record (7.2"). If that doesn't happen, there's a pretty good chance 2021-22 will take the top spot for the lowest season ever. 

Edit: whoops wrong thread

I don't mean to brag, but with our 2.8", we're up to 11.8" IMBY.😋

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I had to check it myself.  Not a great run of models today so far, except for the NAM.  This thing might have more surprises ahead.  

NAM has fooled me several times being north and wet, especially in the 2-3 day range. Speaking of the devil, 18z NAM is coming in slightly south and weaker. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Yawn. Looks like another 2-4" for Omaha.

The snow chances begin to slowly increase Wednesday afternoon,
but really get going Wednesday night, and linger through Thursday.
Models today have perhaps come into better agreement on the track
of the storm system, and have perhaps shifted just slightly
south. The evening commute should be OK Wednesday with flurries
mostly just beginning. The snow becomes moderate into the evening
and overnight and will definitely have an impact on the morning
commute Thursday with a few inches of snow on the ground at that
point. Winds during the event will be from the northeast gusting
up to 20 mph, so there could be a small chance of blowing an
drifting, but it could certainly be worse. Meanwhile, the snow
will end in northeast NE Thursday afternoon, and end along/south
of I80 early Thursday evening. Overall, the upcoming event feels
like a solid winter weather advisory with some travel impacts
expected. Our storm totals range from 2 to 6 inches, depending on
location, which matches well with both the 12z GEFS and EC
ensembles. The 25th/75th percentile ranges with the QPF we have
forecast will show 1 to 8 (with the highest amounts in southeast
NE). 8 inches seems like a bit of stretch to me, as even purely
NBM 75th percentile output still only shows amounts up to around
6.5 inches. The snow will be spread out over a 24 hour period so
that will help manage the impacts, despite what could be pretty
messy commute Thursday morning. 
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1 minute ago, bud2380 said:

GFS just shifted several hundred miles south.  Hard to trust that model right now.  It's had a very rough winter.  Hard to put much stock in it right now.  

I believe this system will push south with strong high pressure pushing in fr the North. It looks like it’s going to be moving south of 1-80 and between 1-70 at the moment 

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When this goes south, it will make it that much easier to warm up again to spring like temps right away. Already a 20+ degree difference in temps over the new snow and where it misses this coming weekend.

At this point, give me a blizzard or a big storm or just miss me and keep the spring temps around.

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The massive south jump only 60 hours out is just comical. 18z GEFS is another slashing of totals for Nebraska, looks good for KC. I hope it's wrong, but probably not with how this winter has gone. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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3 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

The massive south jump only 60 hours out is just comical. 18z GEFS is another slashing of totals for Nebraska, looks good for KC. I hope it's wrong, but probably not with how this winter has gone. 

This pattern has been repeating this year. Models start off in NE and IA, then shift south as the storm approaches.   KC has benefitted to some degree.  But we've even had them push too far south as well.  I'm going to be watching with a fear that it will ultimately push too far south.  

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As much as I'd really like to move onto true spring, my in-laws are reporting "big snow". Knowing the connections, I'm expecting I'm not done with flakes here.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The lag time between model disaster and NWS forecast updates is always depressing. Of course there's still time for further model changes and corrections but 4-8" is starting to look very unlikely. 

Tab2FileL.thumb.png.d441ff0e15b6af0494581fa65970bcad.png

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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The 18z Euro has shifted south again.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said:

The lag time between model disaster and NWS forecast updates is always depressing. Of course there's still time for further model changes and corrections but 4-8" is starting to look very unlikely. 

Tab2FileL.thumb.png.d441ff0e15b6af0494581fa65970bcad.png

That map doesn’t even match their forecast discussion from this afternoon where they basically said 2-6” 

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2 hours ago, jcwxguy said:

Ukie score a win? One could only hope

image.thumb.png.948305f9af50676a0e3c41a2287b5002.png

 

0z Euro sorta agrees with the UKIE...at this point, another minimal stat padder is prob in the works around here unless this just craps out.

1.png

 

2.png

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  • Tom changed the title to 3/9 - 3/12 Spring Storm
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