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3/9 - 3/12 Spring Storm


Tom
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Just now, winterfreak said:

The differences in placement in modeling is astounding this close. 

The models this season just love being so different and spread out so close to the event. Luckily the GFS has been pretty reliable compared to the other models but this time tomorrow we will see who will be the winner 

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8 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said:

The GFS is NOT a good model people. It's busted horribly multiple times this winter. Not to be trusted. Serfs are the way to go 

The gem is pretty similar to GFS 

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1 minute ago, clintbeed1993 said:

The GFS is NOT a good model people. It's busted horribly multiple times this winter. Not to be trusted. Serfs are the way to go 

Meh.  They all bust at times.  And what constitutes a "bust" can be completely different for two people only 50 miles apart. 

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5 minutes ago, centralweather44 said:

Some how this doesn’t surprise me. Caving to the GFS? How does it treat Lincoln?

We do decent but on the edge. Much less in Omaha. Just another step towards the GFS. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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3 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Looking at the HRRR beyond a 18-24 hr lead time seems risky.

Yeah NAM is already moving towards GFS and Euro. I imagine models will mostly be corrected by tomorrow morning.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Winter Storm Warning issued.

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and
  central, north central, northwest and west central Missouri.

* WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
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2 hours ago, Tom said:

KC magnet???  0z EPS showing the dry northerly flow and the "bullseye" near KC proper...

1.png

 

2.png

NWS Hastings morning disco spent most of their time on the dry air cutting back on amounts in the north.  My location is right on the edge.  Maybe far enough south to get 5" or more.  Could also see 2-3" if the band is too far south and dry air continues to sag.  We'll take what we can get.

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This winter can die a slow death. Been cut off and on the edge of every storm and missed in all directions. With this miss I should finish the year off with less than 5” of snow. Wohoo to futility!

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44 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

This winter can die a slow death.

Why not a quick death?

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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  • Tom changed the title to 3/9 - 3/12 Spring Storm
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