Jump to content
The Weather Forums

Powerful Spring Equinox Storm System


Tom
 Share

Recommended Posts

Nature is seemingly timing our next storm system as a trough tracks into SoCAL right on cue when we welcome the Spring Solstice on Sunday at 10:33am CDT local time.  On the 1st full day of Spring, the closed ULL ejects out into the TX Panhandle region and a broad area of SLP forms over the LRC's Slot.  This is one dynamic Spring storm as deep moisture is initially pulled up from the GOM into the central/southern Plains and then the system cuts off from the main flow as it slowly moves ENE.  There are some differences in placement of a variety of precip types.  Let's discuss...

0z Euro is not as bullish with the snow across the Foothills of CO of Plains...

4.png

 

That changes as we move east towards the GL's region where the models are showing some consistency and laying down a pretty good snowstorm for parts of the N GL's...

 

@Madtownmagnet in play...

3.png

 

 

Lot's of much welcomed moisture and a big severe wx event lurking for the deep south and near @Andie...CPC already has an Enhanced Risk...

 

1.gif1.png

 

2.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Spring snow is usually over-done on models, by a lot. GFS and CMC were showing 6-10 for Cascade Mountain for a week and it ended up a 1-3 event. I am ready for spring after this, all my ski resorts except for Granite Peak (3 hours away) will be closed, lakes/revers are all thawed so no snowmobile. If it does happen it's just a big stat-padder that I can't enjoy that'll be gone in a couple days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

06 GFS moisture. Much better than the Euro around here. 
image.thumb.png.8b650295f5a77e4f4edfd45449039e1c.png

Yes! 1-2 inches of rain is an extremely welcome sight!

  • Like 3

Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes! It’s Spring here!  
We’re getting a lot of updates on storm action lately. We’ve had some beautiful cloud action pre and post storm, so it’s a very dynamic atmosphere.   
 

My principle concern is the drought.  The dry air has put a damper on our rain.  We get storm build up then it moves into NE Texas and they get the rain. Farmers, Ranchers, and Homeowners alike are concerned about this drought growing and deepening. Keep us updated on its growth or receding.  
Bring on the rain! 
 

Edit:  They are forecasting 100% chance strong storms Monday. Let’s hope there is enough to soak in and not just run off.  Crops will be grateful so will my yard.  

  • Like 1
  • Storm 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Tom changed the title to Powerful Spring Equinox Storm System
1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Spring Equinox, not Spring Solstice. 

My bad, my brain wasn’t functioning properly early this morning.  On top of that I was dealing with major pain from a nerve in my back tooth!  Ughh, it’s been a rough morning and I’m going to need to extract it on Monday. 

  • Sad 4
  • Sick 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12z GFS 

image.thumb.png.3726d904cebd90aec1b188a7c2de27a0.png

It's even better than the previous run! Bring it on! (I'm getting very excited over this)

  • Like 2

Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4.png

2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12z GFS 

image.thumb.png.3726d904cebd90aec1b188a7c2de27a0.png

This is the type of storm that can break down a dry pattern and I think that's where we may be heading deeper into Spring.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Tom said:

The differences continue between the Euro vs GFS across the Plains but they are in somewhat agreement in terms of snow for the N GL's...

 

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

1.png

 

 

 

 

@OKwx2k4 @Andie

 

2.png

 

 

4.png

Please don't forgot to include me! I'm in Central Oklahoma! XD

  • Thanks 2

Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thinking back to my 5 months working remote in Ft. Worth (hard to believe it's a dozen years ago already), that ENH severe threat is concerning to say the least. I also worked here in The Mitt with a native of that region who told me that "below a 3 are just nuisance twisters". He laughed at a "EF0", saying "those are like mosquitoes you wave away from your face". Vivid in my memory is one of the tallest sky-scapers downtown Ft. Worth with a ton of windows missing or boarded over. Apparently it had sat that way since it took a direct hit from an EF3 a couple years prior. Very odd to see TOR damage to a downtown skyline. Vivid reminder of the old "Tornado Alley" 

  • Like 3

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Thinking back to my 5 months working remote in Ft. Worth (hard to believe it's a dozen years ago already), that ENH severe threat is concerning to say the least. I also worked here in The Mitt with a native of that region who told me that "below a 3 are just nuisance twisters". He laughed at a "EF0", saying "those are like mosquitoes you wave away from your face". Vivid in my memory is one of the tallest sky-scapers downtown Ft. Worth with a ton of windows missing or boarded over. Apparently it had sat that way since it took a direct hit from an EF3 a couple years prior. Very odd to see TOR damage to a downtown skyline. Vivid reminder of the old "Tornado Alley" 

I remember those tornados, early 2000's.  We lived west of Weatherford and I stood on my west porch as one passed south of me along I30 ( about 1.5 mi.) and the other north of me about a mile. The skies were phenomenal. 

The southern twister went into Arlington and the northern one hit downtown Ft. Worth.  My attorney was in that big glass tower and he later told me the IT man grabbed their 2 mainframe towers and walked down 22 floors with one under each arm.   (He was a big guy). He saved the largest business law firm in the county.  

My husband worked for the City in Fuel and Equipment and is a Regional Manager for FEMA when activated.  He and the Equip. Div. spent a lot of time cleaning that city up.  Freakin' glass everywhere

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18Z Euro is much further E with snowfall-- and actually looks to be cutting off and retrograding.

image.thumb.png.5dfad9e6e2898e6ea5c4195cd1e5345a.png

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 18z Euro shifted east, and now the 00z NAM shifted way east, taking Nebraska almost completely out of everything.  🙁

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I can't remember the last time I saw such spread in guidance at HR 60. Check out latest NAM and HRW-FV3-- it's mind blowing the difference.

  • Like 1

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

0z HRRR looks really rough for @Andie

Am I going to get my tookus whipped? 

  • lol 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nebraska has gone from much-needed soaker to bupkis.  🙁

  • Sad 1
  • Angry 1

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro also continues to expand snow shield and further E into N.Central Iowa. sn10_acc.conus.png

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

I can't remember the last time I saw such spread in guidance at HR 60. Check out latest NAM and HRW-FV3-- it's mind blowing the difference.

Part of the reason why I love tracking storms like these during blocked up patterns.  I wish we could have more of these during the heart of winter instead of waiting till the Spring months.  Maybe next year we'll see more of this during the heart of the cold season.

Meantime, the 0z Euro trending more towards a Northwoods Special...looks a lot like the 12z EPS mean...

3.png

 

Much of the ag belt will get a soaking rain but NE/SD ain't looking good in terms of moisture...

5.png

 

@Iceresistance and OK/TX crew looking rather turbulent and moist...

6.png

  • Like 4
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tonight's 0z EPS is taking away more of the SN out west and increasing totals over the GL's.  Strong E flow off of Superior will surely dump SN up near the Arrowhead.  Prob a repeat scenarios of what we saw earlier this month when Duluth raked up totals.

1.png

 

2.png

 

0z EPS precip mean...trending E...

3.png

  • Like 1
  • Sick 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I told you guys, the models always have one big last winter storm on their maps to get your hopes up and it always craps out. It's reliable and it's given, and it reliably marks the end of winter, once you get your big winter storm on the models that never materializes. At least it's going to be 70 Tuesday then some good rain here, the lake will be cleared and ready for me to use my jet skis and canoe. Even though the weather sucked I had an awesome snowboard season so I'm content. Hopefully next year I get more than 4 weeks of actual winter conditions for snowboarding.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

53 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

This system has quickly turned into a big nothingburger for SE SD. Hardly any snow and not even that much total QPF. Lame.

 

Gut punch for my area. From inches of rain to virtually nothing. Drought continues. Disaster in the making for agricultural and consumers unless a major pattern change. 

  • Sad 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Tom said:

Tonight's 0z EPS is taking away more of the SN out west and increasing totals over the GL's.  Strong E flow off of Superior will surely dump SN up near the Arrowhead.  Prob a repeat scenarios of what we saw earlier this month when Duluth raked up totals.

1.png

 

2.png

 

0z EPS precip mean...trending E...

3.png

Horrendous again for Nebraska. Drought breeds drought. 

  • Like 1
  • Sad 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Andie said:

Am I going to get my tookus whipped? 

No, Lots of Supercell activity in Southern Texas, Houston is now under an Enhanced risk for Tornadoes

Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Horrendous again for Nebraska. Drought breeds drought. 

Welcome to the Drought Feedback loop. :(

  • Sad 1

Never day Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

This system has quickly turned into a big nothingburger for SE SD. Hardly any snow and not even that much total QPF. Lame.

 

Story of the year so far for most of NE/ SD… this pattern has been lame for most of us west of the Missouri River, and it just won’t break.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Tom unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share


×
×
  • Create New...