Powerful Spring Equinox Storm System

[Tom]

Nature is seemingly timing our next storm system as a trough tracks into SoCAL right on cue when we welcome the Spring Solstice on Sunday at 10:33am CDT local time.  On the 1st full day of Spring, the closed ULL ejects out into the TX Panhandle region and a broad area of SLP forms over the LRC's Slot.  This is one dynamic Spring storm as deep moisture is initially pulled up from the GOM into the central/southern Plains and then the system cuts off from the main flow as it slowly moves ENE.  There are some differences in placement of a variety of precip types.  Let's discuss...

0z Euro is not as bullish with the snow across the Foothills of CO of Plains...

 

That changes as we move east towards the GL's region where the models are showing some consistency and laying down a pretty good snowstorm for parts of the N GL's...

 

@Madtownmagnet in play...

 

 

Lot's of much welcomed moisture and a big severe wx event lurking for the deep south and near @Andie...CPC already has an Enhanced Risk...

 

 

[Iceresistance]

I may get some of the Storm action here too

[gimmesnow]

Spring snow is usually over-done on models, by a lot. GFS and CMC were showing 6-10 for Cascade Mountain for a week and it ended up a 1-3 event. I am ready for spring after this, all my ski resorts except for Granite Peak (3 hours away) will be closed, lakes/revers are all thawed so no snowmobile. If it does happen it's just a big stat-padder that I can't enjoy that'll be gone in a couple days.

[CentralNebWeather]

06 GFS moisture. Much better than the Euro around here. 

[CentralNebWeather]

[Iceresistance]

14 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

06 GFS moisture. Much better than the Euro around here. 

Yes! 1-2 inches of rain is an extremely welcome sight!

[Mr Marine Layer]

Spring Equinox, not Spring Solstice. 

[Madtown]

Bring it on!

[Andie]

Yes! It’s Spring here!  
We’re getting a lot of updates on storm action lately. We’ve had some beautiful cloud action pre and post storm, so it’s a very dynamic atmosphere.   
 

My principle concern is the drought.  The dry air has put a damper on our rain.  We get storm build up then it moves into NE Texas and they get the rain. Farmers, Ranchers, and Homeowners alike are concerned about this drought growing and deepening. Keep us updated on its growth or receding.  
Bring on the rain! 
 

Edit:  They are forecasting 100% chance strong storms Monday. Let’s hope there is enough to soak in and not just run off.  Crops will be grateful so will my yard.  

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Spring Equinox, not Spring Solstice. 

My bad, my brain wasn’t functioning properly early this morning.  On top of that I was dealing with major pain from a nerve in my back tooth!  Ughh, it’s been a rough morning and I’m going to need to extract it on Monday. 

[Iceresistance]

This sounding on Next Tuesday over SE Mississippi is really scary, the 6z GFS has a Supercell composite of 15. 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z GFS 

[CentralNebWeather]

12z GFS. 

[Iceresistance]

5 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12z GFS 

It's even better than the previous run! Bring it on! (I'm getting very excited over this)

[Tom]

2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12z GFS 

This is the type of storm that can break down a dry pattern and I think that's where we may be heading deeper into Spring.

[Tom]

The differences continue between the Euro vs GFS across the Plains but they are in somewhat agreement in terms of snow for the N GL's...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

@OKwx2k4 @Andie

 

 

 

[hawkstwelve]

Starting to get in the range of the 12km NAM and it's looking snowier than the global deterministic models. Should be interesting to see how it all shakes out.

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

The differences continue between the Euro vs GFS across the Plains but they are in somewhat agreement in terms of snow for the N GL's...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

@OKwx2k4 @Andie

 

 

 

Please don't forgot to include me! I'm in Central Oklahoma! XD

[jaster220]

Thinking back to my 5 months working remote in Ft. Worth (hard to believe it's a dozen years ago already), that ENH severe threat is concerning to say the least. I also worked here in The Mitt with a native of that region who told me that "below a 3 are just nuisance twisters". He laughed at a "EF0", saying "those are like mosquitoes you wave away from your face". Vivid in my memory is one of the tallest sky-scapers downtown Ft. Worth with a ton of windows missing or boarded over. Apparently it had sat that way since it took a direct hit from an EF3 a couple years prior. Very odd to see TOR damage to a downtown skyline. Vivid reminder of the old "Tornado Alley" 

[Andie]

34 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Thinking back to my 5 months working remote in Ft. Worth (hard to believe it's a dozen years ago already), that ENH severe threat is concerning to say the least. I also worked here in The Mitt with a native of that region who told me that "below a 3 are just nuisance twisters". He laughed at a "EF0", saying "those are like mosquitoes you wave away from your face". Vivid in my memory is one of the tallest sky-scapers downtown Ft. Worth with a ton of windows missing or boarded over. Apparently it had sat that way since it took a direct hit from an EF3 a couple years prior. Very odd to see TOR damage to a downtown skyline. Vivid reminder of the old "Tornado Alley" 

I remember those tornados, early 2000's.  We lived west of Weatherford and I stood on my west porch as one passed south of me along I30 ( about 1.5 mi.) and the other north of me about a mile. The skies were phenomenal. 

The southern twister went into Arlington and the northern one hit downtown Ft. Worth.  My attorney was in that big glass tower and he later told me the IT man grabbed their 2 mainframe towers and walked down 22 floors with one under each arm.   (He was a big guy). He saved the largest business law firm in the county.  

My husband worked for the City in Fuel and Equipment and is a Regional Manager for FEMA when activated.  He and the Equip. Div. spent a lot of time cleaning that city up.  Freakin' glass everywhere! 

[Iceresistance]

21z SREF already has a 75% STP over Louisiana for Next Tuesday

[Grizzcoat]

18Z Euro is much further E with snowfall-- and actually looks to be cutting off and retrograding.

[Iceresistance]

0z HRRR looks really rough for @Andie

[Hawkeye]

The 18z Euro shifted east, and now the 00z NAM shifted way east, taking Nebraska almost completely out of everything.  

[Grizzcoat]

I can't remember the last time I saw such spread in guidance at HR 60. Check out latest NAM and HRW-FV3-- it's mind blowing the difference.

[CentralNebWeather]

3 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

I can't remember the last time I saw such spread in guidance at HR 60. Check out latest NAM and HRW-FV3-- it's mind blowing the difference.

I sure hope the FV3 is correct. If the NAM is right, it will be a horrendous gut punch around here. 

[jcwxguy]

nam was been worse than any model this year

 

[Grizzcoat]

RDPS is also going E.

[Madtown]

Hope this gets its act together for a nice storm, but looks like a mess right now

[snowstorm83]

The NAM has been useless past 36 hours but watch it be right for once lol 

[Andie]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

0z HRRR looks really rough for @Andie

Am I going to get my tookus whipped? 

[OmahaSnowFan]

GFS going a little nuts with the snowfall on the backside 

[Grizzcoat]

Euro also further E.

[Hawkeye]

Nebraska has gone from much-needed soaker to bupkis.  

[Grizzcoat]

Totals-

 

[Grizzcoat]

Euro also continues to expand snow shield and further E into N.Central Iowa.

[Tom]

4 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

I can't remember the last time I saw such spread in guidance at HR 60. Check out latest NAM and HRW-FV3-- it's mind blowing the difference.

Part of the reason why I love tracking storms like these during blocked up patterns.  I wish we could have more of these during the heart of winter instead of waiting till the Spring months.  Maybe next year we'll see more of this during the heart of the cold season.

Meantime, the 0z Euro trending more towards a Northwoods Special...looks a lot like the 12z EPS mean...

 

Much of the ag belt will get a soaking rain but NE/SD ain't looking good in terms of moisture...

 

@Iceresistance and OK/TX crew looking rather turbulent and moist...

[Tom]

Tonight's 0z EPS is taking away more of the SN out west and increasing totals over the GL's.  Strong E flow off of Superior will surely dump SN up near the Arrowhead.  Prob a repeat scenarios of what we saw earlier this month when Duluth raked up totals.

 

 

0z EPS precip mean...trending E...

[Madtown]

Duluth and Green Bay NWS saying it's a rainer, little impact except the north shore of Superior.

[hawkstwelve]

This system has quickly turned into a big nothingburger for SE SD. Hardly any snow and not even that much total QPF. Lame.

 

[gimmesnow]

I told you guys, the models always have one big last winter storm on their maps to get your hopes up and it always craps out. It's reliable and it's given, and it reliably marks the end of winter, once you get your big winter storm on the models that never materializes. At least it's going to be 70 Tuesday then some good rain here, the lake will be cleared and ready for me to use my jet skis and canoe. Even though the weather sucked I had an awesome snowboard season so I'm content. Hopefully next year I get more than 4 weeks of actual winter conditions for snowboarding.

[CentralNebWeather]

53 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

This system has quickly turned into a big nothingburger for SE SD. Hardly any snow and not even that much total QPF. Lame.

 

Gut punch for my area. From inches of rain to virtually nothing. Drought continues. Disaster in the making for agricultural and consumers unless a major pattern change. 

[CentralNebWeather]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

Tonight's 0z EPS is taking away more of the SN out west and increasing totals over the GL's.  Strong E flow off of Superior will surely dump SN up near the Arrowhead.  Prob a repeat scenarios of what we saw earlier this month when Duluth raked up totals.

 

 

0z EPS precip mean...trending E...

Horrendous again for Nebraska. Drought breeds drought. 

[Iceresistance]

9 hours ago, Andie said:

Am I going to get my tookus whipped? 

No, Lots of Supercell activity in Southern Texas, Houston is now under an Enhanced risk for Tornadoes

[Iceresistance]

26 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Horrendous again for Nebraska. Drought breeds drought. 

Welcome to the Drought Feedback loop.

[Iceresistance]

Rare D3 Moderate risk issued for Mississippi & Louisiana

[Iceresistance]

All I can say here is OH MY GOSH!

[Bryan1117]

3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

This system has quickly turned into a big nothingburger for SE SD. Hardly any snow and not even that much total QPF. Lame.

 

Story of the year so far for most of NE/ SD… this pattern has been lame for most of us west of the Missouri River, and it just won’t break.

[CentralNebWeather]

15z SREF looks better for Central Nebraska. 

[Bryan1117]

31 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

15z SREF looks better for Central Nebraska. 

That’s a heck of an improvement. Hopefully this pans out.