April 2022 Observations & Discussions

[Iceresistance]

It currently looks like that April 2022 is going to be wetter-than-normal for most of the Eastern & Southern USA, the Ensembles are going crazy for that.

[Andie]

13 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

It currently looks like that April 2022 is going to be wetter-than-normal for most of the Eastern & Southern USA, the Ensembles are going crazy for that.

I hope that includes North Tx.  
We really need it!!

[Iceresistance]

8 minutes ago, Andie said:

I hope that includes North Tx.  
We really need it!!

Yes it does!

[Hawkeye]

Early April is not looking good at all.

[Thunder98]

11 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Yes it does!

Ugh I wish every state was shaded in green

[Iceresistance]

27 minutes ago, Thunder98 said:

Ugh I wish every state was shaded in green

I know, I wish that too, but the patterns would not let that happen anytime soon

[Tom]

Are the "Ides of March" going to continue into April???  It appears the pattern will continue as potent troughs barrel their way into the PAC NW/West Coast and make their way through the Rockies into our Sub.  The Trio of Climate Models are all suggesting that the next 30 days are not signaling a return to Spring for the North/East members but those in the south are going to see some real summer time warmth induced by storms that will likely pump up the GOM warmth.  Gosh, I'm so ready for some warmer wx.

 

 

The JMA...cool/cold and wet for MW/GL's...

 

 

If you are to believe the Euro Weeklies, there is a signal that sometime after mid April a ridge could develop over the heartland of the nation....Iirc, the LRC suggests the active pattern to subside during this time which would allow for real warmth to build.  My concern, however, is the high lat blocking will put a wrench into any true sustained warmth near the GL's and parts of the MW.  The -NAO is not forecast to go away anytime soon and this could very well be a part of the summer pattern as well.  Something interesting is happening in the atmosphere this year and I'm getting a feeling that blocking will be a part of our pattern heading into Summer.

[Iceresistance]

The 3/25/2022 0z GEFS Ultra-Long Range is currently suggesting Above-Normal Rainfall for the Southern Plains for most of April

[Tom]

Buckle up, the pattern that keeps on giving will continue the storm parade...this time, however, we may be seeing more of a "southern stream" storm track and not so many cutters with blocking really blossoming up on top and the EPO relaxing after a brief spike into + territory.  A winter lover's dream but in the wrong season....nature may be delivering more "stat padding" April snows in the Plains/MW....#AprilFools???

 

[Tom]

On this cold Monday morning (21F), there is no sugar coating this week's weather around these parts as the doldrums of Spring shall continue.  The Good, The Bad and The Ugly....The Good??  Moisture....The Bad...more cloudy, chilly and Sub normal temps likely....The Ugly....The CFSv2 is painting a very dreary and cold April for most of this Sub Forum....BUT, the Silver Lining....MOISTURE....I'm seeing a potent shot of some chilly air in the D 10-15 period targeting more of the eastern Sub and would not be surprised to see some LES and system snow near the GL's region.  

The key elements to the LR pattern ahead, is very active storm track coupled with high lat blocking that will produce a corridor of systems to track across our Sub.  It's going to be an active Severe Wx season for our southern members but how far north it gets is looking less likely, except for the KC region and maybe at times the S MW/Lower Lakes.  Our member in KY @Timmy_Supercellshould see some boomers this month.

 

 

[Tom]

If the LR clues that I normally would use during the winter are right, Easter Weekend for the eastern CONUS, esp the GL's/MW will see a major trough in the region.  I know its a long ways out but this idea is strictly based on what I see is forecast to develop around Hudson Bay & W NAMER where it will create a favorable pattern to amplify the North American 500mb pattern.  If you are thinking of making any plans to head south to escape the cold, I recommend it.

 

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Pretty strong, slow-moving low advertised on the global models for next week. Euro basically stalls it in the arrowhead for a day @992mb, GFS brings the low over me. That'll be something to watch next week, at least for us Northerners.

[Minny_Weather]

1 minute ago, MSP_Weather said:

Pretty strong, slow-moving low advertised on the global models for next week. Euro basically stalls it in the arrowhead for a day @992mb, GFS brings the low over me. That'll be something to watch next week, at least for us Northerners.

Wow, I actually did not look at GFS close enough before making this post. GFS actually brings a CO low up towards me, it actually cuts up here like a bowling ball. It phases with Euro's clipper over the Dakotas and brings worlds of fun to me. Euro just keeps the lows separate.

[Tom]

Where have we seem this before???  The southern stream storm track continues to show that the "slot" has been a magnet for areas of LP to eject out near the TX PanHandle region.  3-peat???  As @MSP_Weathermentioned, another powerhouse storm is poised to target the MW/GL's region.  This is a storm generating pattern I have not seen in quite some time.  In years past, we would see 1, maybe 2, of these gigantic systems but to track one per week is rather unusual.  I'm pretty sure the high lat blocking has something to do with it, thus keeping the jet stream stronger than normal.  These systems just wanna...dig, dig, dig and GO BIG!

 

 

[Tom]

Who's ready for some #RealSpring weather?  The models are suggesting a reversal in the PNA (-) that will pop the SER and alongside the +EPO will flood the Sub with a "Spring Surge" as temps will likely head into the 70's/80's for a lot of peeps on here...some may see Summer time temps! 

First, however, there are multiple systems to track every other day it seems for parts of the MW into the GL's.  Some models even suggest more stat padding snow for parts of IA/WI this weekend and next Monday and then the Big storm late next week.

 

 

 

 

[Andie]

Off the charts lightning display from this recent hard pushing front.  
it’s been a while since Mother Nature went bonkers.  

 

[Iceresistance]

Joe Bastardi has this to say for April 2022, & we need to get ready for anything, especially if we need to jump into our Storm Shelters.

 

[Iceresistance]

@Andie

Already something worth watching on Monday, April 4th from the WPC

 

[bud2380]

Euro and EPS both showing about day 9-10 (April 8th-9th) before we show signs of an actual warm up.  

The average high for April 8th in Cedar Rapids is 57.3 and in Iowa City it is 60.1, so this would be right around average, which would feel great compared to this dismal weather we've been having.  

[Hawkeye]

The latest Euro has two compact, fairly potent, snow systems through early next week.  All the models show the Saturday morning snow.

[Hawkeye]

Today's Euro showing a pretty wet pattern over the next week.  Unfortunately, it does not include Nebraska.

[Tom]

The 0z Euro is showing some pretty strong wind gusts into all of NE on Sun afternoon from that vigorous upper level wave that will track into the MW.  A bit of a wave train is setting up shop and will continue the wet/active/cool pattern into next week. 

Max gusts up to 50-60mph???  Hold onto your hats!  #NEDustBowl

More snow??  Yup...precip through Tuesday...

 

[westMJim]

Welcome to April. One of the issues I have with the CoCoRaHS is that the time that is used is 7AM to 7AM thus the amounts of rain/snow do not match up with the official NWS readings. Anyway that said I recorded 0.09" of rain/melted snow yesterday and overnight. The overnight low here was 30 and it looks like the official overnight low at GRR was 31. I have a trace of snow on the ground at this time with a current temperature of 32. March ended up with a mean temperature of 36.2 at Grand Rapids and that was just a departure of +0.5. There was 3.50" of rain/melted snow and that is above the average of 2.39" and 6.0" of snow fell that is below the average of 7.6". At Muskegon it was also wet and somewhat mild with less snow fall. At Lansing all three were above average as they had above average snow fall as well.

[Hawkeye]

The NWS is thinking there will be a band of 1-3" (isolated 4") of snow in the area tonight, probably a bit north of me.  The 06z HRRR does sink it down to Cedar Rapids, but it's a south outlier.

[Clinton]

Rain moves back in tonight.  The storm early next week looks much wetter for my area.

[Hawkeye]

The 12z HRRR continues to be farther south with tonight's snow.  It will probably be a bit north and weaker than this.

[bud2380]

9z RAP similar to the 12z HRRR

 

[Hawkeye]

The NAM is trending weaker, and it's still mostly north of Cedar Rapids.  The FV3 is also nothing like the HRRR.  I expect the HRRR to back off at 18z and 00z.

[Timmy Supercell]

Mother Nature knows today is April Fools apparently. For a brief less than 10 minutes a wet snow shower came over me and briefly produced a 40-45mph gust. Some graupel was falling too. 

It made the grass all white for a few minutes. 

[bud2380]

I'm going to visit my parents tomorrow (in northeast Iowa), if the GFS is correct they'll have several inches of new snow.

 

[Andie]

On 3/31/2022 at 9:43 AM, Iceresistance said:

@Andie

Already something worth watching on Monday, April 4th from the WP

Wow,  more rain.  Love it.  We may be on the edge of the good stuff but I'll take it. 

Is all this goodness due to the Nino backing off, of just dumb luck??

 

[bud2380]

15z RAP came north from the 09z run, but still is further south of other guidance.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

47 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I'm going to visit my parents tomorrow (in northeast Iowa), if the GFS is correct they'll have several inches of new snow.

 

That's something else for sure. I've never experienced more than 2" on the ground in the month of April when I lived in Klamath Falls. 

[Tom]

Welcome to April!  Will April showers, or rather, snow showers bring May flowers??  If this wet/cool pattern continues through April across the eastern ag belt, I'm worried that the soils will be to wet for the farmers to get out there and till the soils.  Let's think warmer thoughts bc the models are showing relief from this abysmal cool, cloudy, wet pattern we have been stuck in.   I read that Chicago has recorded (9) 100% cloudy days since MAR 17th.  I'm soo looking forward to see the sunshine today, albeit, a cool day in the 40's.

With that being said, a warmer pattern is on the horizon and a pattern that is ripe for severe wx action....the clash of airmass's is going to ignite some boomers...SW Flow aloft is a classic signal...

 

 

[Tom]

26 minutes ago, Andie said:

Wow,  more rain.  Love it.  We may be on the edge of the good stuff but I'll take it. 

Is all this goodness due to the Nino backing off, of just dumb luck??

 

You mean La Nina...and no, it's not backing off...in fact, its holding on strong through this summer...IMHO, it's the amount of blocking that is allowing storms to dig a lot farther south this Spring compared to recent ones where storms cut NW of your region and OK.  This season storms are tracking into the Deep South and ultimately producing more action down your way.  Enjoy as much of it as you can bc I think the heat will build in come May/June.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

This is a cruel joke, unfortunately not an April Fools joke. 

 

[Hawkeye]

The formerly south outlier HRRR is trending north with tonight's snow.  It is now mostly north of Cedar Rapids.

[Iowawx]

The HRRR is suggesting that there could be a narrow 4-5" band somewhere in eastern Iowa. Looks like it's just north of highway 30 as of the most recent run.

I doubt we will see more than 2" in CR but anything is possible. WWA just issued for CR.

[bud2380]

Well I'm one county too far south for this one.  But I hope those along and north of Hwy 30 get some nice snow out of this.  

[Phil]

Last night’s Tornado confirmed by NWS just south of me. First March tornado around here since 2011.