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April 2022 Observations & Discussions


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On 4/2/2022 at 7:02 PM, OmahaSnowFan said:

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That seasonal  snowfall map is woefully inaccurate. I meticulously  measured 30" here near Ottumwa  Iowa. On a snow board according to standards. I find  snow  measuring  to be inaccurate  often, cocorahs or observers  that measure at 6 am only?  Probably mostly based on radar?  Ive found 3 sources for average annual  snowfall for my town online, why? Also  spots west  of Hagerstown  md with only 6 inches? Etc etc

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Most of the overnight the temperature was at 40 or in the upper 30's the low so far today is the current temperature of  34. At this time there is moderate snow falling but with the temperature of 34 and a warm ground the snow is not sticking. 

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It's happening! Gorillas. 🤪

@Phil@Andie

2022-04-04 10_03_28-Facebook.png

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

That seasonal  snowfall map is woefully inaccurate. I meticulously  measured 30" here near Ottumwa  Iowa. On a snow board according to standards. I find  snow  measuring  to be inaccurate  often, cocorahs or observers  that measure at 6 am only?  Probably mostly based on radar?  Ive found 3 sources for average annual  snowfall for my town online, why? Also  spots west  of Hagerstown  md with only 6 inches? Etc etc

Yeah these maps aren't always the best, though I can say it's pretty accurare for eastern Nebraska so the contrast from most of IA should be even greater than that map shows ugh lol. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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3 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

That seasonal  snowfall map is woefully inaccurate. I meticulously  measured 30" here near Ottumwa  Iowa. On a snow board according to standards. I find  snow  measuring  to be inaccurate  often, cocorahs or observers  that measure at 6 am only?  Probably mostly based on radar?  Ive found 3 sources for average annual  snowfall for my town online, why? Also  spots west  of Hagerstown  md with only 6 inches? Etc etc

It did well for the PNW IMO. Last two La Nina's were predominantly Washington Cascades producers leaving most of Oregon south of about Mt. Hood in the dry.

Northeastern KY at best averages 12-18" and as the map shows around that much fell. My notes match with what has fallen and what the map shows. I guess it really depends where you live and may not reflect some micro climates. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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20 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z Euro showed 1200+ jules of CAPE for early next week with 2200+ not too far away in SE SD/NE Nebraska. Might make things a little interesting!

I think the most J/kg I achieved in the PNW was 500-800 J, maybe 1000 in our more "extreme" events. Never got even close to 2000. 

mucape.us_nc.png

mucape.us_nc.png

wait until the dog days of summer when it's in the 90s and dews in the 70s and you can get CAPE over 7k-8k!! Most of those days are sunny and humid with no storms as there's nothing to trigger any development.

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24 minutes ago, Bellona said:

Uhm...just wondering here, what is a wind bag? Lol I know what one is but, never heard it referenced in weather.

Relatively new term for me as well. May have heard it once but I'm convinced Reed invented a few of these. ;)

There's supposed to be a chaser term called bird fart but other than Reed I've never seen another chaser on video use it. lol

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Alright, alright, alright...it finally looks like Real Spring will make an appearance this Sun thru next Wed around these parts as a classic late season Spring storm is taking shape.  This was a signature part of the LRC that should produce back-to-back cutters.  Last night's 0z Euro flashing that Blitz scenario I had envisioned and some of the other models are trying to do the same.  This should end up being a powerful CO Low that ejects out into the Plains/MW and cuts hard towards the W GL's.  Getting close for ya @hawkstwelve...

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2 rounds of snow for the Northwoods of MN... @Beltrami Island 1st round below...

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Severe Wx threat finally pushing farther N mid next week...I'm sure we'll have a storm thread for this one as it'll feature a clash between Ol' Man Winter vs Spring....Buckle up!

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Oh, and that pattern for Easter weekend....ya, not looking bueno...is there an Easter snow scenario???  I think it is very plausible for someone across the heartland...something tells me the IA magnet may come into play.  Just a hunch.

 

 

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12 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z Euro showed 1200+ jules of CAPE for early next week with 2200+ not too far away in SE SD/NE Nebraska. Might make things a little interesting!

I think the most J/kg I achieved in the PNW was 500-800 J, maybe 1000 in our more "extreme" events. Never got even close to 2000. 

mucape.us_nc.png

mucape.us_nc.png

5/4/17 the Puget Sound saw CAPE around 1500-2000 j/kg. Lead to severe storms in Olympia and a lightning bonanza in Seattle.

Late summer 2013 also brought some gaudy midlevel CAPE, closing in on 2-3000 j/kg in the mountains at times.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

is there an Easter snow scenario???  I think it is very plausible for someone across the heartland...something tells me the IA magnet may come into play.  Just a hunch.

I am not sure why but it seams that when Easter is late there is a good chance of a colder pattern. We shall see.

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Don't remember ever seeing High Wind Warnings and Red Flag/Fire Warnings for 3 days in a row before.  NWS Hastings disco has been tremendous laying out the multiple dangers.  They didn't sugarcoat anything.  Things are bad; long term drought, high winds, dried out vegetation.  Ingredients are ripe for large, out of control fires and dust storms.  Sounds like the Dust Bowl, doesn't it?  To say we are desperate for moisture is an understatement.  Looking at the yards in town yesterday, they look absolutely horrendous. 

Usually my April 5th, I've mowed a time or two depending on lingering snow piles.  My yard is so brown and matted down, I don't see any need to mow for weeks.  What is sad, is I take good care of my yard, lawn spraying service, underground sprinklers.  I've held off turning on the sprinklers.  Most people in my neighborhood have already run them.  Local newspaper said we've only had 0.80" of moisture from Jan. 1st-April 4th.  Last year by April 4th, we had 8.63".  That doesn't go back to Oct., Nov., and Dec. which were also dry. 

Thanks for letting me vent.

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12 hours ago, bud2380 said:

For that matter what is gorilla hail? Just a sensationalist term to describe large hail? 

It's a rare and extreme meteorological condition where the hail pieces fall down in the shape of gorillas. Instead of being roundish balls they have distinct, strong extremities, as well as an ape-like head structure. Truly a marvel of weather phenomenon. Maybe if you are lucky you can catch a gorilla hail stone before the appendages melt, I suggest keeping it in the freezer to preserve it and most of them melt on the way down from the stratosphere. Definitely very cool!

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On 4/4/2022 at 8:53 AM, OttumwaSnomow said:

That seasonal  snowfall map is woefully inaccurate. I meticulously  measured 30" here near Ottumwa  Iowa. On a snow board according to standards. I find  snow  measuring  to be inaccurate  often, cocorahs or observers  that measure at 6 am only?  Probably mostly based on radar?  Ive found 3 sources for average annual  snowfall for my town online, why? Also  spots west  of Hagerstown  md with only 6 inches? Etc etc

Not here. Ofc, mby was a donut hole when it came to snow this winter, so I'm still less than 3 ft total here in "the hole", but most of this area is in the 3-4 foot range just as it shows.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Burrr!  Cold opening week for baseball.

0d40d5_1f751061d044479f9a9217ce0acb50ce~mv2.gif

I see a high of 44F here for this Saturday. Going to guess that's around 15 degrees below normal? At least we have about 4 days of warmth to look forward to next week.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I see a high of 44F here for this Saturday. Going to guess that's around 15 degrees below normal? At least we have about 4 days of warmth to look forward to next week.

I could see some 80s early next week.  That will be welcome after the cold Thursday and Friday.

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I'm not happy about the model trend for next week.  The GFS began to tease a less robust warmup, especially early in the week, yesterday.  Other models are now getting on board.  This morning's Canadian is significantly different next week, blowing a cold front through early in the week and then tracking the big storm way south.  The GFS also moves the cold front through early and keeps it there.  So, instead of a big, warm ridge Monday through Wednesday, we get stuck behind the front with clouds and rain.  The Euro is still holding onto more warmth as of last night.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Euro has delayed the warm-up by a day, dropping us to only mid 50s Sunday, but it still keeps the cold farther nw through Wednesday and boosts my area into the 70s Monday through Wednesday.  It still has a big Dakotas blizzard.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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We officially picked up 2.17” rain yesterday but it felt like a lot more.  Heavens opened up and it just poured hard for over 30 minutes.  
The area at large was dealing with very heavy rain, hail, and tornados.  Quite a rain maker   We need another in a week or 2  to try to reach average  

5.69 Total rainfall this year.
Still -3.52 for the year.  
 

Per NWS Ft Worth Tx :

4 pm Damage Survey Update

 The NWS survey team has found damage consistent with an EF-2 rating (max winds 112 mph) north of Egan in Johnson County. Additional surveys & damage assessments will be done over the next few days.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Early to mid this week was supposed to be decent, temp-wise, but it's not panning out.  Today was going to be the warmest of the week.  The Euro has been advertising upper 50s to low 60s.  The NWS had mid 50s in the forecast.  Instead, we were stuck in the upper 40s.  Wednesday also had looked like 50s, but now it'll be a struggle to get out of the 40s again.  Thursday and Friday will struggle to get out of the 30s.  Saturday should be another day in the 40s.  It has already been a week since we hit 50º.  The moisture is nice, but, otherwise, this pattern really sucks.  Our average high is approaching 60º for Pete's sake.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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6 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Euro also continues to show an environment that (I believe) is ripe for thunderstorms prior to the snow onset. CAPE just a little under 2000 J/kg, lapse rates around 9 C/km, bulk shear around 75 knots, and some moisture to work with too.

Admittedly, I am still learning about thunderstorm parameters like the above so I'm not entirely sure what it translates to but have to imagine those are fairly decent numbers for April and would be enough to kick off some storms.

Need to find some reading on best thunderstorm parameters so I can better understand what I'm looking at and what it means for the realized surface weather. 

mucape.us_nc.png

lr75.us_nc.png

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Sometimes simple observation is the best educator. Every region has its own unique quirks.

But then again, convection is a fickle, unpredictable beast. You might get screwed during a moderate risk, but experience one of the best thunderstorms of your life on a general/see text day.

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Edit: Meant to post this yesterday so I updated the latest data this morning

 

CFSv2 and Euro Weeklies both pointing towards the same theme...."wet & cool to Rule"......the exception would be the Dry signal that continues for parts of the central Plains...

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