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April 2022 Observations & Discussions


Iceresistance

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At the current time there is rain falling here at my house with a temperature of 48. The overnight low was 41.  Yesterday was the 1st day of April that was above average with a official high at Grand Rapids yesterday was 56. That is the warmest it has been so far this month.  In now looks like the the first 70 or better day has been pushed back as the forecasted high on Tuesday in now in the mid 60's with a chance of showers. The average first day of 70 or better is April 4th So this year will be later than average. The earliest date is March 3, 1983 and the latest is May 3, 1950. 

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It's going to be a windy Wednesday here with winds 25-35mph.  The storm next week looks to be a fun one with severe weather, lots of rain and a blizzard up north.  Should be a couple of days with large tornadoes possible in Oklahoma, big storm.

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Well, well, well...looky what we have here....I see you 0z Euro....#AprilBlitz'22 

@hawkstwelve @CentralNebWeather

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This looks like a typical spring storm that we have usually had in the past. Until I see moisture falling from the sky this season, I’ll remain very skeptical. Can be very hard to break a drought. I sure hope I’m wrong. 

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NWS Hastings morning disco::

Just beyond the current forecast...good model agreement with a potent system ejecting out of the southwest and into the plains towards the middle of next week...with plenty of time to focus on this system over the coming days and fine tune thinking as it should bring a solid shot for some beneficial precip to the region. In fact...there could even be some snow on the backside of this system..and the hazard outlook from CPC shows a slight risk for heavy snow just to our west in the 4/13-4/14 time frame.

 

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From OAX:

“The City of Lincoln is wrapping up the least snowy cold season on record. 

Only 20% of the city's normal snowfall has fallen (summer '21 to summer '22).”

Looking on the right, you can see I gave them permission to use an actual photo of me.

BEF36FD9-49F3-45BD-9D85-743E297D7A16.thumb.jpeg.a945cc312197ab6914df056652660a34.jpeg

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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15 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS coming in quite a bit further north with the potential snowstorm next week. Pretty much stays as all rain for KFSD. The snowfall map is a thing of my nightmares, with nice accumulations over the entire state besides the SE corner.

Still a lot to iron out with the track of that storm, thankfully.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

snku_acc.us_nc.png

"Still a lot to iron out with the track of that storm"

12 hour maps have busted hard for mby.

Good luck with your +/-200 hour maps.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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31 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS coming in quite a bit further north with the potential snowstorm next week. Pretty much stays as all rain for KFSD. The snowfall map is a thing of my nightmares, with nice accumulations over the entire state besides the SE corner.

Still a lot to iron out with the track of that storm, thankfully.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

snku_acc.us_nc.png

This would be the final kick in the rear for Nebraskans.  Would not be surprised at all if this verified.  Long ways to go.  Have to be pessimistic until the pattern changes.  

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The Euro is the only model still holding onto Mon-Wed warmth here next week.  All other models blow a cold front through Sunday night.  This morning's GFS and GDPS do surge 70s up here for one day, Wednesday.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Euro is slowly trending toward the other models and is now blowing the cold front through Iowa Sunday night.  However, it then lifts the front back up into Iowa on Tuesday, bringing warmth and storms with it.  Other models are keeping us in the 50s Mon/Tue, but the Euro is still getting us into the 60s Monday and 70s Tuesday.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Whoever said April, or at least the first half, was gonna be craptastic is dead on. So far every day has been cold, windy with rain or snow (when ya don't want it). I'd be excited if this was Fall but idc for this in the spring. Hopefully that storm next week goes north so Iowa can get some warm air.

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NWS Hastings afternoon disco:

Models continue to be in relatively good agreement regarding the presence of a deep upper trough from the N Rockies to Four Corners and strong ridging over the E Coast. This is typically a great setup for development of classic, strong Colorado Low that eventually ejects NE across the Plains. This appears mostly likely to occur in the Tue-Wed time frame, but details regarding exact track and strength of low pressure remains uncertain...and this will be key to determining sensible weather. Looks like classic system with storms/severe wx on warm side, strong wind/cold/snow on back side...and dry slot with fire weather concerns somewhere in between.

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Pretty weak sauce in the long term from DMX. I mean at least take a stab and break down which guidance you prefer or not , but no---

The thermal ridge begins to build back towards the area for the
weekend, allowing for modest warm. First into the 50s on Saturday
and then perhaps the 60s south on Sunday. Of course, this also means
winds will become breezy again. Model solutions diverge from there
as a sharp front is expected to pass across the area. Timing
differences amongst the models result in a spread of temperatures
for early next week. Discrepancies also translate to precipitation
timing with a reinforcing shortwave. Depending on the model or
the timing, this may be the next chance for convection across
Iowa.

 

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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4 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Pretty weak sauce in the long term from DMX. I mean at least take a stab and break down which guidance you prefer or not , but no---

The thermal ridge begins to build back towards the area for the
weekend, allowing for modest warm. First into the 50s on Saturday
and then perhaps the 60s south on Sunday. Of course, this also means
winds will become breezy again. Model solutions diverge from there
as a sharp front is expected to pass across the area. Timing
differences amongst the models result in a spread of temperatures
for early next week. Discrepancies also translate to precipitation
timing with a reinforcing shortwave. Depending on the model or
the timing, this may be the next chance for convection across
Iowa.

 

Kind of like OAX.....

Southwesterly flow increases early next week as troughing digs
across the Rockies. There are still many uncertainties within the
deterministic and ensemble solutions, but the large scale pattern
would favorable a stormy few days.
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Pertaining to the previous post about a cold baseball opener-- why in the world in early April do Northern teams without a roof (Twins/both Sox/Cubs/Clev/Det etc.) have games right outta the gate is beyond me. Seattle / Twins was postponed like a month ago. Why not play it in Seattle? I know scheduling is tough and all- but places mentioned above should at least a play a week or so in warmer locations and than roll the dice around April 15th or so---  Just my .02.

Seattle/Twins apparently still on for a double dip Friday- OH boy in front off about 3500 fans in wind chills near 32F. Sounds like a lot of fun for MLB home opener said no one ever. The players gotta hate it also after coming from FL or AZ...  I think it was the 14' Season Opener that Clev/Det like missed the first entire WEEK after scheduling each other back to back home and home series.

image.thumb.png.26e01b6f96fa083eaebd32693942b392.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Last April at DSM- wow, what a differnce-three days in a row with high in 80s'. This year- 3 in row in the 40's(upcoming)

image.png.0a53f1321a9b2cdd2870e88c0e5c90d7.pngimage.png.d4edf406bd6061af047c4d08250a7302.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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27 minutes ago, Thunder98 said:

McAllen, TX was 109F today. They broke their old April All time high of 107F!

Will be interesting if that gets verified or not. Some pretty crazy swings in the dewpoint before and after the 109F.  The "$" means maintenance is needed on the ASOS, my guess is the temp/dewpoint sensor is kitty wampus but I'am not saying it didn't get to 109, just that the extremes have caused the "$" sign,

KMFE 070253Z 06009KT 10SM CLR 25/15 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP130 T02500150 53051 $
KMFE 070153Z 05009KT 10SM CLR 27/17 A2986 RMK AO2 SLP111 T02720167 $
KMFE 070053Z 02010G20KT 10SM CLR 31/09 A2981 RMK AO2 SLP091 T03110089 $
KMFE 062353Z 36014G22KT 10SM CLR 33/09 A2977 RMK AO2 PK WND 36028/2304 SLP078 T03330094 10428 20333 53030 $
KMFE 062253Z 36019G28KT 10SM CLR 36/11 A2973 RMK AO2 PK WND 34033/2235 SLP067 T03560111 $
KMFE 062153Z 01019G35KT 10SM CLR 38/14 A2970 RMK AO2 PK WND 35036/2054 SLP055 T03780144
KMFE 062053Z 34024G36KT 8SM FEW030 39/13 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 35036/2039 SLP048 T03940128 55004
KMFE 061953Z 35009G19KT 10SM CLR 42/03 A2966 RMK AO2 SLP042 T04220028
KMFE 061853Z 29007G18KT 260V320 10SM CLR 41/08 A2967 RMK AO2 SLP045 T04110083
KMFE 061848Z 33010G18KT 10SM CLR 41/07 A2967 RMK AO2
KMFE 061753Z VRB04KT 7SM CLR 36/21 A2969 RMK AO2 SLP052 T03610206 10367 20200 58005
KMFE 061653Z VRB04KT 7SM CLR 33/21 A2971 RMK AO2 SLP058 T03330211

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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10 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Will be interesting if that gets verified or not. Some pretty crazy swings in the dewpoint before and after the 109F.  The "$" means maintenance is needed on the ASOS, my guess is the temp/dewpoint sensor is kitty wampus but I'am not saying it didn't get to 109, just that the extremes have caused the "$" sign,

KMFE 070253Z 06009KT 10SM CLR 25/15 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP130 T02500150 53051 $
KMFE 070153Z 05009KT 10SM CLR 27/17 A2986 RMK AO2 SLP111 T02720167 $
KMFE 070053Z 02010G20KT 10SM CLR 31/09 A2981 RMK AO2 SLP091 T03110089 $
KMFE 062353Z 36014G22KT 10SM CLR 33/09 A2977 RMK AO2 PK WND 36028/2304 SLP078 T03330094 10428 20333 53030 $
KMFE 062253Z 36019G28KT 10SM CLR 36/11 A2973 RMK AO2 PK WND 34033/2235 SLP067 T03560111 $
KMFE 062153Z 01019G35KT 10SM CLR 38/14 A2970 RMK AO2 PK WND 35036/2054 SLP055 T03780144
KMFE 062053Z 34024G36KT 8SM FEW030 39/13 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 35036/2039 SLP048 T03940128 55004
KMFE 061953Z 35009G19KT 10SM CLR 42/03 A2966 RMK AO2 SLP042 T04220028
KMFE 061853Z 29007G18KT 260V320 10SM CLR 41/08 A2967 RMK AO2 SLP045 T04110083
KMFE 061848Z 33010G18KT 10SM CLR 41/07 A2967 RMK AO2
KMFE 061753Z VRB04KT 7SM CLR 36/21 A2969 RMK AO2 SLP052 T03610206 10367 20200 58005
KMFE 061653Z VRB04KT 7SM CLR 33/21 A2971 RMK AO2 SLP058 T03330211

Nearby weather stations like Harlingen and Weslaco also experienced a dramatic drop in dew points when temps spiked above 100F.

 

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KHRL.html

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KTXW.html

 

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7 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Will be interesting if that gets verified or not. Some pretty crazy swings in the dewpoint before and after the 109F.  The "$" means maintenance is needed on the ASOS, my guess is the temp/dewpoint sensor is kitty wampus but I'am not saying it didn't get to 109, just that the extremes have caused the "$" sign,

KMFE 070253Z 06009KT 10SM CLR 25/15 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP130 T02500150 53051 $
KMFE 070153Z 05009KT 10SM CLR 27/17 A2986 RMK AO2 SLP111 T02720167 $
KMFE 070053Z 02010G20KT 10SM CLR 31/09 A2981 RMK AO2 SLP091 T03110089 $
KMFE 062353Z 36014G22KT 10SM CLR 33/09 A2977 RMK AO2 PK WND 36028/2304 SLP078 T03330094 10428 20333 53030 $
KMFE 062253Z 36019G28KT 10SM CLR 36/11 A2973 RMK AO2 PK WND 34033/2235 SLP067 T03560111 $
KMFE 062153Z 01019G35KT 10SM CLR 38/14 A2970 RMK AO2 PK WND 35036/2054 SLP055 T03780144
KMFE 062053Z 34024G36KT 8SM FEW030 39/13 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 35036/2039 SLP048 T03940128 55004
KMFE 061953Z 35009G19KT 10SM CLR 42/03 A2966 RMK AO2 SLP042 T04220028
KMFE 061853Z 29007G18KT 260V320 10SM CLR 41/08 A2967 RMK AO2 SLP045 T04110083
KMFE 061848Z 33010G18KT 10SM CLR 41/07 A2967 RMK AO2
KMFE 061753Z VRB04KT 7SM CLR 36/21 A2969 RMK AO2 SLP052 T03610206 10367 20200 58005
KMFE 061653Z VRB04KT 7SM CLR 33/21 A2971 RMK AO2 SLP058 T03330211

North Texas hit 94* a few days ago.  
Really stinks.  
We’ll hit 70 today.  That’s more like it.  
These big swings are just miserable.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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All the morning models are trending toward more good action in the 9-10 day period as the pattern reloads.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Had a couple low rumbles in the vicinity, upper 50's out and alternating between partly sunny and darkening sky. 

Airport hasn't registered any thunder but hopefully some kind of lightning map can prove it. 😎

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Added a 'thunders' section on the signature. Since it might get longer this summer, took the frog away. :P

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Had some occasional snow/sleet showers all day off and on. Radar is very convective looking in nature with the showers moving through.

I've recorded my highest gusts yet on my new weather station IMBY with this system. 43.4 mph last evening which is rather impressive considering it's surrounded by trees and houses in the neighborhood. I'm still debating whether I want to put it up on a big pole to try and get it up in the wind better for days like this.... Maintenance would be harder and not sure if I would like getting temp/humidity reports from  25-30 feet off the ground.

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Long long range looks depressing with blocking.  I hate this new spring pattern the last few years.  April has become worse than March.  Use to be active with storms in Michigan.  Doesn't happen anymore.  Slightly below temps me crap damp weather.  

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10 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

 

You can see that real good on radar scope also. Been getting hit by off and on grapuel showers earlier than transitioned to snow showers. Then in between that we have blowing dust. Just a crazy time around these parts. 

PNG image-0FE2468F8211-1.png

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15 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

You can see that real good on radar scope also. Been getting hit by off and on grapuel showers earlier than transitioned to snow showers. Then in between that we have blowing dust. Just a crazy time around these parts. 

PNG image-0FE2468F8211-1.png

Wind gusting over 60 mph at times. It was tough walking to my truck. I can see dust blowing in the country. 

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