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April 2022 Observations & Discussions


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36 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Nobody could get snow for the holidays.  Now you guys up north can't get it to shut off!  Frustrating I bet.

You said it perfectly bud.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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@TomI think I remember you posting a map showing a ton of snow for S MI a couple days and I remember saying to myself, nah, this must be a fluke, but, I guess it wasn't. Wow. 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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50 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Nobody could get snow for the holidays.  Now you guys up north can't get it to shut off!  Frustrating I bet.

In the 70's on Christmas! lol huuge chance that doesn't repeat next 10 years. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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18 minutes ago, Niko said:

@TomI think I remember you posting a map showing a ton of snow for S MI a couple days and I remember saying to myself, nah, this must be a fluke, but, I guess it wasn't. Wow. 

Ya, the Euro was showing this system a little bit over a week ago but backed off on the higher totals.  Needless to say, it's still going to snow at the worst times in late Spring.  I'm glad I left Chicago for the AZ sunshine...I couldn't take it anymore.  I literally was not feeling 100% since I'd say about March.  This was the longest time I spent in Chicago during the spring months of MAR/APR in over a decade.  As you guys know, I'm usually out here by late Feb or very early MAR when winter in my book is pretty much over and done.  Living through the Yo-Yo period of the Spring season in the GL's can be very miserable.

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Currently light snow and 36F just outside of Des Moines on April 17th. April will be below normal temp wise making no above normal months this year at Kdsm. Last time that happened was 2018. Then 2008 and then back to early/mid 90's after Pinatubo. 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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From my buddy in Rhinelander,WI,

 

Scattered snow showers late tonight into tomorrow morning.  Bursts of heavier snow will likely lead to snow covered roadways for the Monday morning commute. 1-3 inches of new snow is on the way.  This may or may not be enough to enter the Top 5 Snowiest Seasons (on record) in Rhinelander.  We need exactly 2.0" to do that with 89.3" recorded (so far) this snow season.  91.3" is needed to tie with the 1949/50 snow season.  If we don't get it this time, another round of snow arrives Wednesday before 50s get in here later in the week.

 

 

received_408870427277563.jpeg

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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48 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

In the 70's on Christmas! lol huuge chance that doesn't repeat next 10 years. 

You’d be surprised. Christmas 2015 it was in the mid-70s here at 3AM with frequent thunder/lightning. It can get worse!

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Ya, the Euro was showing this system a little bit over a week ago but backed off on the higher totals.  Needless to say, it's still going to snow at the worst times in late Spring.  I'm glad I left Chicago for the AZ sunshine...I couldn't take it anymore.  I literally was not feeling 100% since I'd say about March.  This was the longest time I spent in Chicago during the spring months of MAR/APR in over a decade.  As you guys know, I'm usually out here by late Feb or very early MAR when winter in my book is pretty much over and done.  Living through the Yo-Yo period of the Spring season in the GL's can be very miserable.

Enjoy AZ and the full, warmth sunshine there. Also, AZ is on my list. Post some pics when ya get a chance.

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

Oh No....that -NAO...Hello Blocky, Blocky....the pattern is gonna slow down to a crawl late month and into May.  Man, this is going to be a Blessing for the central CONUS ag belt regions.  To much of a good thing???  Maybe for some but welcome for others.

image.png

 

Then you also couple that with a -EPO and you'll undoubtedly form a massive "Pool of Cool" where it's going to rain frequently.

image.png

 

CFSv2 jumping on it...

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.202205.gif

 

Wet, wet, wet...is a certain BET....

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.202205.gif

 

 

What does that mean for my area? More Severe Storms & Supercells?

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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All models are showing something like this Thursday night... widespread storms developing north of a lifting warm front.

image.thumb.png.6c9be3540ea5f4cd8990ff82ea163bde.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

You’d be surprised. Christmas 2015 it was in the mid-70s here at 3AM with frequent thunder/lightning. It can get worse!

Decembers here sound like how Novembers can differ year to year in the northwest. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Unfortunately, as the Euro has sped up and shifted the big system north, just like the last storm as it got closer, Nebraska has really dried out.

image.thumb.png.b3d14b003cfe6ecc422f28a543250d87.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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15 minutes ago, Tom said:

Here was the sunrise before Easter Mass at 6:30am…not a cloud in the sky and Day 2 in a row with zero Chem trails.

 

 

Absolutely beautiful! Luv the mountains in the far distance.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Much cooler today, mid-50s and sunny with a dry NW wind. Frost is possible any of the next three nights.

Chilly storm arrives tomorrow, with snow likely in the mountains. Probably just a cool rain here, but some ice pellets or sloppy flakes could mix in the strongest bands.

Warm-up begins Thursday, with highs in the 80s likely next weekend. Getting more difficult to beat back the warmth.

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But this is mid April and going onto to late April........

Significant changes were made to the forecast for the Monday period
as widespread accumulating snow is expected across the forecast
area. While some variance still remains in the numerical output,
model trends toward a phased and rapidly deepening low pressure
system over portions of Lake Erie, Southwest Ontario, and the
southern Lake Huron basin necessitates heightened messaging for
possible high impact snowfall rates and potential rapid snow
accumulations for Southeast Michigan. 
 

This just in:

The next factors consideration will be any changes in precipitation
type and snow rates. Given the degree of web bulbing that may occur
with forecast dewpoints climbing into the mid/upper 20s to possibly
around 30s by tomorrow afternoon There is moderate to high
confidence at this point that snow will be the predominate
precipitation type given the vertical temperature profiles being
well below cold enough. Accumulating snowfall becomes more likely
regardless of April sun angle with forecast high temperatures now
expected in the mid to upper 30s, which is especially true if rates
become high enough. There will be plenty of good moisture wrapping N
to NNW along the frontal slope into southeast Michigan Monday
morning and afternoon helping support the potential for higher
rates. Models indicate a period of strong FGEN/deformation
developing between 17Z-22Z Monday around 850 mb over the Detroit
Metro region northeast toward the Port Huron area. This set up
certainly brings potential for 1 inch per hour snow rates during
that time with good omega values/lift also present through the DGZ.

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Part of central/west-central IA has been in the low 30s with snow all afternoon.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Here we go:

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
846 PM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022

MIZ069-070-180900-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0013.220418T1600Z-220418T2300Z/
Oakland-Macomb-
Including the cities of Pontiac and Warren
846 PM EDT Sun Apr 17 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 7 PM EDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4
  inches.

* WHERE...Oakland and Macomb Counties.

* WHEN...From noon to 7 PM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A period of high intensity snowfall is
  expected Monday afternoon. The snowfall rates may be enough to
  overcome mid April daytime heating and allow for some quick wet
  snow accumulations onto the roads.

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Now there's a 4.2" report south of Des Moines.

It is just a bit of very light rain here.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Minot, ND received another 10-12" of snow today.  That is 3-4 ft of snow in a week in mid April.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This is in the Arrowhead of MN (mid Gunflint Trail for those that wanna know) taken Friday, April 15th. This is before the 6-10" forecast for late in the weekend/Monday with ANOTHER Warning snow. Ice out on lakes close to Superior and the heat sink will likely not be out till Mid May or later. https://photos.bwca.com/m/MOCHA-170422-160540.JPG

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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With 1.4" of snowfall officially recorded at KDSM yesterday puts the season total at 36.0". Somehow someway, KDSM has nickled and dimed it's way to an above normal snowfall season. 11 out of the last 16 seasons have been above normal snowfall wise.

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
132 AM CDT MON APR 18 2022

...................................

...THE DES MOINES IA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR APRIL 17 2022...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1878 TO 2022


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         38   1248 AM  86    1975  63    -25       64       
  MINIMUM         31   1159 PM  19    1907  41    -10       42       
  AVERAGE         35                        52    -17       53     

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                    
  YESTERDAY        0.22          3.14 2013   0.14   0.08      T       
  MONTH TO DATE    0.91                      1.98  -1.07     1.18     
  SINCE MAR 1      4.36                      4.15   0.21     3.76     
  SINCE JAN 1      6.02                      6.57  -0.55     5.81     

SNOWFALL (IN)                                                              
  YESTERDAY        1.4           8.2  1983   0.0    1.4      0.0      
  MONTH TO DATE    1.4                       0.8    0.6      0.0      
  SINCE MAR 1     10.2                       5.2    5.0      1.3      
  SINCE JUL 1     36.0                      35.9    0.1     55.8      
  SNOW DEPTH       0  

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Tomorrows (4/19) forecast low is 26F for KDSM. One degree from the record of 25F set in 1928. To show readers how rare a 26F or lower temp is this time of year the following is top 3 coldest daily temps from 4/19 - 5/1. Only two times in the last 50 years has the temp dropped to 26F-at later date than 4/19) 4/20/2013 and 4/22/1986. Pretty remarkable but no mention of this in local media or AFD by the NWS.

4/19 25 in 1928 27 in 1988 28 in 1983+
4/20 21 in 1888 26 in 2013 26 in 1953
4/21 24 in 1966 27 in 1907 28 in 1934
4/22 26 in 1986 29 in 2021 30 in 1936+
4/23 25 in 1956 26 in 1893 28 in 1927+
4/24 24 in 1967 25 in 1956 28 in 2013
4/25 28 in 1934 29 in 1968 30 in 1887
4/26 25 in 1907 29 in 1950 30 in 1931
4/27 28 in 1950 31 in 1933 31 in 1909
4/28 30 in 1950 31 in 2019 31 in 1958
4/29 24 in 1958 31 in 2008 32 in 1994+
4/30 29 in 1908 29 in 1903 31 in 1907+
5/1 27 in 1909 31 in 1940 32 in 1997+
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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5 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

This is in the Arrowhead of MN (mid Gunflint Trail for those that wanna know) taken Friday, April 15th. This is before the 6-10" forecast for late in the weekend/Monday with ANOTHER Warning snow. Ice out on lakes close to Superior and the heat sink will likely not be out till Mid May or later. https://photos.bwca.com/m/MOCHA-170422-160540.JPG

That is wild to see mid winter conditions this late in the year and such a deep snow pack.  I don't know about the history up there but one would imagine that these type of scenes are more common closer to the Canadian border?  Maybe not so much in the past decade but maybe this will be a trend going forward?

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@Clinton, are we in the later parts of the OCT pattern in terms of the LRC?  Reason why I ask is bc the pattern post D5 looks very similar iirc when a deep low developed just south of Greenland that pumped the Greenland Block.  I didn't take my notebook with me to look back at what happened.

1.gif

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

That is wild to see mid winter conditions this late in the year and such a deep snow pack.  I don't know about the history up there but one would imagine that these type of scenes are more common closer to the Canadian border?  Maybe not so much in the past decade but maybe this will be a trend going forward?

This is extreme, even for the Arrowhead. The only years that I know come close are  2013-2014 - 2008 and 1996. Then it's 1950 and 1936.  The later two are extremely nuts. In 1936- the owner of Gunflint Resort on Gunflint Lake that is a large/deep border water with Canada walked across the lake on June 1st. The ice went out June 3rd that year on Gunflint -- 1950 was way later according to other lakes in MN but Gunflint is missing for that year.

Imagine a family from IA,IL or where ever coming up for Memorial Day weekend for some fun in the sun only to be forced to ice fish!!! But hey- at least you get to use two lines!!!

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Ya, I don't miss this at all...

Screen Shot 2022-04-18 at 4.04.12 AM.png

 

 

Meantime, we are heading up into the upper 90's today and tomorrow in PHX....the SW ridge is going to be strong over the next couple weeks and I'm concerned the storms will track north of here and just produce dry frontal systems with a lot of wind.

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3 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

This is extreme, even for the Arrowhead. The only years that I know come close are 2014 and 1996. Then it's 1950 and 1936.  The later two are extremely nuts. In 1936- the owner of Gunflint Resort on Gunflint Lake that is a large/deep border water with Canada walked across the lake on June 1st. The ice went out June 3rd that year on Gunflint -- 1950 was way later according to other lakes in MN but Gunflint is missing for that year.

Imagine a family from IA,IL or where ever coming up for Memorial Day weekend for some fun in the sun only to be forced to ice fish!!! But hey- at least you get to use two lines!!!

Ice fishing for walleye on MDW...that would be something!

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14 minutes ago, Tom said:

@Clinton, are we in the later parts of the OCT pattern in terms of the LRC?  Reason why I ask is bc the pattern post D5 looks very similar iirc when a deep low developed just south of Greenland that pumped the Greenland Block.  I didn't take my notebook with me to look back at what happened.

1.gif

We are entering the mid October part of the pattern and a very active stretch of weather.

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2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

We are entering the mid October part of the pattern and a very active stretch of weather.

Thanks...I knew it looked familiar and I recall posting a GEFS 500mb animation way back in OCT that looked literally the same as the one above.  Fascinating stuff.

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Yesterdays official high at Grand Rapids was just 44 that is -15 below average for April 17. Yesterdays low of 27 was the 4th coldest for any April 17 at Grand Rapids. Today also looks to be one of the coldest April 18 in GR history. It may end up in the top 3 coldest. It will be interesting to see how much todays official snow fall will be. Todays record looks to be safe (3.0" in 1912) and just a few years ago in 2018 1.8" fell. But there is a very good chance that today will end up with one of the most snow falls for any April 18 at Grand Rapids. At the current time there is light to moderate snow falling there is snow on the roofs and a trace on the ground here with a temperature of 32.

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