April 2022 Observations & Discussions

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Thanks...I knew it looked familiar and I recall posting a GEFS 500mb animation way back in OCT that looked literally the same as the one above.  Fascinating stuff.

Gary wrote a more detailed forecast on this part of the pattern.

A very strong storm formed in the first LRC cycle and lifted out across western Nebraska and the Dakotas on October 13. 63 days later a similar system formed southeast of Salt Lake City on December 15, 2021, and it also vigorously lifted out across the Dakotas as well. And, on the far right is the forecast for later this week showing another vigorous storm forecast to track across the same region.

• In the first LRC Cycle, there was significant severe weather for five days in a row and a stretch of wet and stormy weather that cycled through us over a three week stretch.
• In the second LRC Cycle, there were two major severe weather outbreaks, the first of which produced the horrific tornadoes in Mayfield, Kentucky, and the Mississippi River Valley and then a second major severe weather outbreak that produced tornadoes where tornadoes had never been reported before in December (across northern Iowa and Minnesota). This also produced 77-mile-per-hour winds at the downtown Kansas City airport.
• We have had this in our forecast to arrive this week. In our spring special we made the forecast for this to arrive between April 16 and 24, and here it comes.

So, what does it mean for this week?

That strong storm, shown on the upper right map, will be ripping out of the southern Rocky Mountains and across the northern plains producing another snowstorm in spots that had three feet last week. For Kansas City, this means fronts moving through us, stalling, lifting north, and then moving out by next week. It may end up setting us up for a severe weather risk or two and we will learn more later today.

[Tom]

34 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Gary wrote a more detailed forecast on this part of the pattern.

A very strong storm formed in the first LRC cycle and lifted out across western Nebraska and the Dakotas on October 13. 63 days later a similar system formed southeast of Salt Lake City on December 15, 2021, and it also vigorously lifted out across the Dakotas as well. And, on the far right is the forecast for later this week showing another vigorous storm forecast to track across the same region.

• In the first LRC Cycle, there was significant severe weather for five days in a row and a stretch of wet and stormy weather that cycled through us over a three week stretch.
• In the second LRC Cycle, there were two major severe weather outbreaks, the first of which produced the horrific tornadoes in Mayfield, Kentucky, and the Mississippi River Valley and then a second major severe weather outbreak that produced tornadoes where tornadoes had never been reported before in December (across northern Iowa and Minnesota). This also produced 77-mile-per-hour winds at the downtown Kansas City airport.
• We have had this in our forecast to arrive this week. In our spring special we made the forecast for this to arrive between April 16 and 24, and here it comes.

So, what does it mean for this week?

That strong storm, shown on the upper right map, will be ripping out of the southern Rocky Mountains and across the northern plains producing another snowstorm in spots that had three feet last week. For Kansas City, this means fronts moving through us, stalling, lifting north, and then moving out by next week. It may end up setting us up for a severe weather risk or two and we will learn more later today.

Bingo!  I guess my mind was on the same wavelength early this morning before Gary wrote this blog.  Good stuff.

[Phil]

Getting a sleet/snow mix! Nice change of pace after 4 days in the 80s over the last week.

[Phil]

Man some crazy snow/ice totals in the mountains already. LWX just issued a winter storm warning for Garrett County.

Sloppy mix here. Just a few weeks sooner and we’d probably be ripping dendrites.

[Grizzcoat]

To show how crazy this current weather is -look at Grand Forks climo data- record high of 100F in a few days in 1980.Then look at record lows. (again set tonight>)  Not being mentioned in major media is the 3' of snow on the ground in and around Minot,ND. (your on your own for that) . Not one iota of a mention of how EXTREME this is in a media that seems to favor the other side. What happened in ND (and will again) is off the charts epic both in precip and temps.

 

[Hawkeye]

The GFS is awful as far out as it goes.  It's more of the same blocking that causes cold air to sag down over the central and eastern US.  The latest run, after this weekend, has nothing but 40s to low 50s every day through May 4th.  In addition, models are now turning this Friday to crap.  Instead of a warm day, we get stuck with rain and ese wind north of the warm front.  The GFS has gone from low 70s to only 50º.  This s*** makes me want to scream.

[snowstorm83]

12z GFS has dried out even more, nothing of significance in Nebraska outside of fantasy land. 

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, westMJim said:

Yesterdays official high at Grand Rapids was just 44 that is -15 below average for April 17. Yesterdays low of 27 was the 4th coldest for any April 17 at Grand Rapids. Today also looks to be one of the coldest April 18 in GR history. It may end up in the top 3 coldest. It will be interesting to see how much todays official snow fall will be. Todays record looks to be safe (3.0" in 1912) and just a few years ago in 2018 1.8" fell. But there is a very good chance that today will end up with one of the most snow falls for any April 18 at Grand Rapids. At the current time there is light to moderate snow falling there is snow on the roofs and a trace on the ground here with a temperature of 32.

Yup, late April in SMI..

[OmahaSnowFan]

1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

To show how crazy this current weather is -look at Grand Forks climo data- record high of 100F in a few days in 1980.Then look at record lows. (again set tonight>)  Not being mentioned in major media is the 3' of snow on the ground in and around Minot,ND. (your on your own for that) . Not one iota of a mention of how EXTREME this is in a media that seems to favor the other side. What happened in ND (and will again) is off the charts epic both in precip and temps.

 

It's North Dakota. It's the northern Minnesota arrowhead. I'm sure the national media would be talking about it if it was hitting a major city or populated area. Why the hell would most people in the rest of the US care if Minot, ND had a record cold April and snowfall? 

 

[Grizzcoat]

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

It's North Dakota. It's the northern Minnesota arrowhead. I'm sure the national media would be talking about it if it was hitting a major city or populated area. Why the hell would most people in the rest of the US care if Minot, ND had a record cold April and snowfall? 

 

It's Climate all the same , no??  "They" don't answer your question. Because why do most care when Death Valley gets near to 134-135F when no one lives there??  Same thing. It seems the media is ALL Over that than the opposite speaking when Embarrass,MN/ Tower,MN/ Rogers Pass,MT

or other cold towns-- when they get near ALL TIME cold records for Lower 48.   Lets be honest- the media over hypes warmth and warm spells more than then the other "side" --I will not get into the why's. But they do BOTH get over hyped. See my previous posts. this is an EPIC cold spell in ND and MN right now and is getting little attention  and if it was summer and warmth- it would garner more attention no? That's my .02, we seem to disagree but agree at the same time??

[OmahaSnowFan]

1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

It's Climate all the same , no??  "They" don't answer your question. Because why do most care when Death Valley gets near to 134-135F when no one lives there??  Same thing. It seems the media is ALL Over that than the opposite speaking when Embarrass,MN/ Tower,MN/ Rogers Pass,MT

or other cold towns-- when they get near ALL TIME cold records for Lower 48.   Lets be honest- the media over hypes warmth and warm spells more than then the other "side" --I will not get into the why's. But they do BOTH get over hyped. See my previous posts. this is an EPIC cold spell in ND and MN right now and is getting little attention  and if it was summer and warmth- it would garner more attention no? That's my .02, we seem to disagree but agree at the same time??

I would argue an all time record high for Death Valley, a place many actually would recognize, and is one of the hottest places on the Earth, is much different than Minot, ND breaking snowfall records and some record lows in April. Hell, looking at the forecast discussions for the NWS in NoDak is rather boring.... 

The heat waves covered by media are normally for much larger areas of the country just like you do see stories for record cold for large areas of the country. I watch ABC Nightly News pretty regularly and pretty regularly see stories on record cold and record heat. But, I don't think if it was just North Dakota and northern MN that were experiencing a heat wave in the middle of summer, it would get much attention. Now if it was entire areas of the Midwest and Plains, then yes it would.

At this point, this should be considered a "one off" for an abnormal April in NoDak. Until the 12th, Grand Forks was having a relatively normal April temp wise and Minot was above normal temp wise. Now for the last 6 days, they've been running 20-25 degrees below normal, because of the snowfall and the snow depth on the ground. The extreme snowfall was caused by a completely cut off strong low that took sitting for 3 days to get that amount of snow. It's been an interesting weather week up there is how I see it.

[OmahaSnowFan]

10 day Euro precip and GFS precip from 12Z not that impressive for Nebraska unfortunately.

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

It's Climate all the same , no??  "They" don't answer your question. Because why do most care when Death Valley gets near to 134-135F when no one lives there??  Same thing. It seems the media is ALL Over that than the opposite speaking when Embarrass,MN/ Tower,MN/ Rogers Pass,MT

or other cold towns-- when they get near ALL TIME cold records for Lower 48.   Lets be honest- the media over hypes warmth and warm spells more than then the other "side" --I will not get into the why's. But they do BOTH get over hyped. See my previous posts. this is an EPIC cold spell in ND and MN right now and is getting little attention  and if it was summer and warmth- it would garner more attention no? That's my .02, we seem to disagree but agree at the same time??

Media overhypes everything since they get more viewers and more brownie points. Take climate change for example, which is a real threat, but they use scaremongering and exaggerate everything. I think that can be just as bad as ignoring the threat altogether. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Next 15 days on 18z GFS. Really no words at this point. 

[jaster220]

I had guestimated 1.5" fell in my region (work and home only about 5 miles by air), and it looks like I was pretty close

0309 PM     SNOW             3 NNE CANTON            42.35N 83.47W
04/18/2022  M1.6 INCH        WAYNE              MI   COCORAHS

            3 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTAL.

This puts me in a near dead heat with last winter's total. Regardless if this year manages to barely pass last year, I have just experienced my all-time #2 and #3 least snowiest winters of my lifetime: 

#1  1982-83  33.6"

#2  2021-22  35.7"

#3  2020-21  36.2"

[jaster220]

Looking out my window. Have better snow cover than in December or most of January!

So twisted. Just make it stop!

[CentralNebWeather]

It is April 19th tomorrow and we still sit at 0.0” for precipitation this month. April is typically a wet month around here. NWS Hastings not overly impressed with moisture later this week. After that chance, the extended looks bleak. 

[OKwx2k4]

2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Next 15 days on 18z GFS. Really no words at this point. 

Same but for different reasons.

That's inexplicable. I have little faith much of that west of I-35 in OK/TX will materialize, but no doubt bad news for those enduring the droughts.

[Beltrami Island]

15 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

This is extreme, even for the Arrowhead. The only years that I know come close are  2013-2014 - 2008 and 1996. Then it's 1950 and 1936.  The later two are extremely nuts. In 1936- the owner of Gunflint Resort on Gunflint Lake that is a large/deep border water with Canada walked across the lake on June 1st. The ice went out June 3rd that year on Gunflint -- 1950 was way later according to other lakes in MN but Gunflint is missing for that year.

Imagine a family from IA,IL or where ever coming up for Memorial Day weekend for some fun in the sun only to be forced to ice fish!!! But hey- at least you get to use two lines!!!

I don't know the specifics of spring 1996 other than it was cold in general. April 2008 had some significant snowstorms, but these were disconnected from the "winter", where the winter snowpack had all melted.  2013-14 was an epic winter but kinda flipped to spring after the first week of April.

April 2013 is the only thing comparable to this April I can think of. I remember hearing guys getting stuck snowmobiling the MN north shore trail on May 1. 

[Niko]

47 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Looking out my window. Have better snow cover than in December or most of January!

So twisted. Just make it stop!

It was beautiful today amigo....even though, my mode is definitely switched on severe weather, I have to admit, at some point today, it was coming down so heavy, that I almost had visions of ol' Man Winter. Visibility was down to less than a mile for a while. Picked up couple of inches here in northern Macomb. It looked beautiful w/ all of that heavy wet snowfall on the trees. Even the roads were slushy, considering the time of the year.

[Niko]

Detroit has now received 47.1" of snowfall, after 2.3" fell today. Above average snowfall, for sure. Not bad at all.

Are we done w/ this snowy April. Not too sure about that. More snow could be on tap for early Thursday morning, b4 things warm up a bit, briefly that is, before colder air arrives again by the end of the weekend. Highs potentially back in the 40s and lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s, especially for early next week.

DTW  : Detroit Metro Airprt:   39 /  33  /  36  / 0.41  / 2.3" /

[OmahaSnowFan]

2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

It is April 19th tomorrow and we still sit at 0.0” for precipitation this month. April is typically a wet month around here. NWS Hastings not overly impressed with moisture later this week. After that chance, the extended looks bleak. 

Now that's nuts. No measurable precip nearly 3 weeks into April. We've had .50" IMBY. Not much but we also had 2.5" last month.

[Grizzcoat]

Cando,ND at -2F 2:55AM-- latest in the season I've seen below zero temps in the Plains/Upper Midwest at an airport other than Hibbing,MN at -1F on 4/20/2013.  To put that against other longer term climate sites in the region- Record lows for 4/19 are-  Grand Forks- 7F  (they have at least tied it and now 4 consecutive min records) - Fargo- 11F and I-Falls 15F.

Edit to the above with some non airport data

*** EDIT *** Embarrass,MN was -14F on 4/20 and 4/21 2013. Embarrass is also where it was -60F in early Feb,1996 -- the coldest temp ever recorded in MN.
Gunflint Lak,MN e recorded -9F and -8F on the same dates in 2013. 

[Grizzcoat]

On 4/18/2022 at 4:48 AM, Grizzcoat said:

Tomorrows (4/19) forecast low is 26F for KDSM. One degree from the record of 25F set in 1928. To show readers how rare a 26F or lower temp is this time of year the following is top 3 coldest daily temps from 4/19 - 5/1. Only two times in the last 50 years has the temp dropped to 26F-at later date than 4/19) 4/20/2013 and 4/22/1986. Pretty remarkable but no mention of this in local media or AFD by the NWS.

4/19	25 in 1928	27 in 1988	28 in 1983+
4/20	21 in 1888	26 in 2013	26 in 1953
4/21	24 in 1966	27 in 1907	28 in 1934
4/22	26 in 1986	29 in 2021	30 in 1936+
4/23	25 in 1956	26 in 1893	28 in 1927+
4/24	24 in 1967	25 in 1956	28 in 2013
4/25	28 in 1934	29 in 1968	30 in 1887
4/26	25 in 1907	29 in 1950	30 in 1931
4/27	28 in 1950	31 in 1933	31 in 1909
4/28	30 in 1950	31 in 2019	31 in 1958
4/29	24 in 1958	31 in 2008	32 in 1994+
4/30	29 in 1908	29 in 1903	31 in 1907+
5/1	27 in 1909	31 in 1940	32 in 1997+

DSM just  shattered it's previous record of 25F in 1928 for 4/19.  Currently 21F. The coldest (tied with 1888)  it's ever been this late in the year on record.  And with no snow cover. Pretty impressive. Again, no mention of this in AFD or local media leading up to it. 

[Grizzcoat]

^^ They did mention it in this AM's AFD- but nothing yday leading up to the event.

National Weather Service Des Moines IA
404 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022

.DISCUSSION.../Today through Monday/
Issued at 404 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022

Key Messages:
-- Wet Wednesday with a rumbles of thunder
-- Warmer Thursday
-- Storm chances at times Thursday night into Saturday
-- Windy on Saturday

Details: GOES-East Nighttime Microphysics RGB shows a mainly clear
sky over Iowa as surface high pressure is centered over the state.
There are low clouds just east of Iowa associated with the departing
upper level closed low that is just east of Lake Huron with high
clouds spilling overtop of an approaching ridge into far western
Iowa. The clear sky is causing a very chilly mid-April night and may
near a record low at Des Moines, which is 25 degrees for the day.

[Tom]

Dry soils and low DP's will allow temps to surge into the low 90's across the Plains this Friday...

 

Enjoy the "brief" taste of Summer on Sat...those farther east across the Sub could manage and extra day or two depending on how the second piece of energy comes out of the SW along the trailing CF.

[westMJim]

Yesterdays official high of 37 at Grand Rapids was the 2nd coldest maximum at Grand Rapids for any April 18th The only colder April 18th was the 34 in 1983. The reported 0.3" of snow fall is the 4th most snow to fall on any April 18th at Grand Rapids. Yesterday was also the 3rd coldest at Lansing and the 4th coldest at Muskegon. All in all a very cold late April day. For the month the mean at Grand Rapids is now 40.9 and that is a departure of -4.2 there have been only 5 days of above average meant temperature and 13 days below (today will be the 14th) At this time it is cloudy and 34 here in MBY.

[Clinton]

Frosty down here this morning as the temp seems to have bottomed out at 29.  I'm ready for the end of the week warm up and maybe hear a rumble or 2 of thunder.  Some stronger thunderstorms look possible this week for me and points south.

[Tom]

Yeesh, about as ugly as it can get to open up the Merry Month of May where we see flowers blooming along with sunny and warm days...well, maybe not so much this year for the majority of the N & E Sub...

 

Thankfully, as avg high temps continue to rise these departures won't  "feel" that bad....next 30 days off the CFSv2 look good in the precip dept as blocking will allow to provide more opportunities.

 

If you looked at the Euro Weeklies, it'll pretty much solidify a cold finish to met Spring....

[Tom]

9 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Frosty down here this morning as the temp seems to have bottomed out at 29.  I'm ready for the end of the week warm up and maybe hear a rumble or 2 of thunder.  Some stronger thunderstorms look possible this week for me and points south.

Moving along towards early May, as the pattern gets suppressed, I think those of our members down farther south are going to see more bumpy times ahead.

[Tom]

Yesterday, ORD record another nuisance April snow of 0.2" and a Trace the day before....season total up to 32.8"...

[Hawkeye]

It's unclear how warm we will get Friday afternoon.  The Euro has boosted us back to 70º, but if the warm front is slower getting up here we could get stuck much lower.

[westMJim]

Just had a brief but heavy snow shower go through here. With yesterdays official 0.3" of snow fall for Grand Rapids puts the seasonal total at 71.0" That is still some 6.2" below average but is more than the winter of 2020/21's 46.1" and the winter of 2019/20's 53.2 in 2018/19 the total was 81.3"

[Grizzcoat]

Coldest I've seen at my pad this late ---

[Madtown]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Yeesh, about as ugly as it can get to open up the Merry Month of May where we see flowers blooming along with sunny and warm days...well, maybe not so much this year for the majority of the N & E Sub...

 

Thankfully, as avg high temps continue to rise these departures won't  "feel" that bad....next 30 days off the CFSv2 look good in the precip dept as blocking will allow to provide more opportunities.

 

If you looked at the Euro Weeklies, it'll pretty much solidify a cold finish to met Spring....

Entering the ok, I'm done with this phase

[Hawkeye]

DVN radar is down for up to two weeks for scheduled maintenance.

[Minny_Weather]

Excuse my friend's language at the beginning, but this was our drive to Fargo yesterday morning. Jackknifed semi, icy roads, and blizzard conditions made for a fun time.

[jaster220]

14 hours ago, Niko said:

It was beautiful today amigo....even though, my mode is definitely switched on severe weather, I have to admit, at some point today, it was coming down so heavy, that I almost had visions of ol' Man Winter. Visibility was down to less than a mile for a while. Picked up couple of inches here in northern Macomb. It looked beautiful w/ all of that heavy wet snowfall on the trees. Even the roads were slushy, considering the time of the year.

I kept seeing out the window here at work and thinking to self "this would be awesome.....in December!!!"

[CentralNebWeather]

Just a county to my west, but I can see dust in the air.  Too many of these advisories to count this spring.  

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Blowing dust video a few minutes ago about 30 miles west of me moving east.