April 2022 Observations & Discussions

[westMJim]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

is there an Easter snow scenario???  I think it is very plausible for someone across the heartland...something tells me the IA magnet may come into play.  Just a hunch.

I am not sure why but it seams that when Easter is late there is a good chance of a colder pattern. We shall see.

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[Clinton]

Burrr!  Cold opening week for baseball.

[CentralNebWeather]

Don't remember ever seeing High Wind Warnings and Red Flag/Fire Warnings for 3 days in a row before.  NWS Hastings disco has been tremendous laying out the multiple dangers.  They didn't sugarcoat anything.  Things are bad; long term drought, high winds, dried out vegetation.  Ingredients are ripe for large, out of control fires and dust storms.  Sounds like the Dust Bowl, doesn't it?  To say we are desperate for moisture is an understatement.  Looking at the yards in town yesterday, they look absolutely horrendous. 

Usually my April 5th, I've mowed a time or two depending on lingering snow piles.  My yard is so brown and matted down, I don't see any need to mow for weeks.  What is sad, is I take good care of my yard, lawn spraying service, underground sprinklers.  I've held off turning on the sprinklers.  Most people in my neighborhood have already run them.  Local newspaper said we've only had 0.80" of moisture from Jan. 1st-April 4th.  Last year by April 4th, we had 8.63".  That doesn't go back to Oct., Nov., and Dec. which were also dry. 

Thanks for letting me vent.

[gimmesnow]

12 hours ago, bud2380 said:

For that matter what is gorilla hail? Just a sensationalist term to describe large hail? 

It's a rare and extreme meteorological condition where the hail pieces fall down in the shape of gorillas. Instead of being roundish balls they have distinct, strong extremities, as well as an ape-like head structure. Truly a marvel of weather phenomenon. Maybe if you are lucky you can catch a gorilla hail stone before the appendages melt, I suggest keeping it in the freezer to preserve it and most of them melt on the way down from the stratosphere. Definitely very cool!

[jaster220]

On 4/4/2022 at 8:53 AM, OttumwaSnomow said:

That seasonal  snowfall map is woefully inaccurate. I meticulously  measured 30" here near Ottumwa  Iowa. On a snow board according to standards. I find  snow  measuring  to be inaccurate  often, cocorahs or observers  that measure at 6 am only?  Probably mostly based on radar?  Ive found 3 sources for average annual  snowfall for my town online, why? Also  spots west  of Hagerstown  md with only 6 inches? Etc etc

Not here. Ofc, mby was a donut hole when it came to snow this winter, so I'm still less than 3 ft total here in "the hole", but most of this area is in the 3-4 foot range just as it shows.

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Burrr!  Cold opening week for baseball.

I see a high of 44F here for this Saturday. Going to guess that's around 15 degrees below normal? At least we have about 4 days of warmth to look forward to next week.

[Clinton]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I see a high of 44F here for this Saturday. Going to guess that's around 15 degrees below normal? At least we have about 4 days of warmth to look forward to next week.

I could see some 80s early next week.  That will be welcome after the cold Thursday and Friday.

[Hawkeye]

I'm not happy about the model trend for next week.  The GFS began to tease a less robust warmup, especially early in the week, yesterday.  Other models are now getting on board.  This morning's Canadian is significantly different next week, blowing a cold front through early in the week and then tracking the big storm way south.  The GFS also moves the cold front through early and keeps it there.  So, instead of a big, warm ridge Monday through Wednesday, we get stuck behind the front with clouds and rain.  The Euro is still holding onto more warmth as of last night.

[Hawkeye]

The Euro has delayed the warm-up by a day, dropping us to only mid 50s Sunday, but it still keeps the cold farther nw through Wednesday and boosts my area into the 70s Monday through Wednesday.  It still has a big Dakotas blizzard.

[snowstorm83]

Decided to check to see if this Dakotas blizzard means a decent soaker for Nebraska......it does not. 

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said:

Decided to check to see if this Dakotas blizzard means a decent soaker for Nebraska......it does not. 

Just not our year. Really sad. 

[Andie]

We officially picked up 2.17” rain yesterday but it felt like a lot more.  Heavens opened up and it just poured hard for over 30 minutes.  
The area at large was dealing with very heavy rain, hail, and tornados.  Quite a rain maker   We need another in a week or 2  to try to reach average  

5.69 Total rainfall this year.
Still -3.52 for the year.  
 

Per NWS Ft Worth Tx :

4 pm Damage Survey Update

 The NWS survey team has found damage consistent with an EF-2 rating (max winds 112 mph) north of Egan in Johnson County. Additional surveys & damage assessments will be done over the next few days.

[james1976]

Miserable weather up here in Vadnais Heights all day. Started out with rain/snow/sleet and mid 30s and then rained steady to heavily at times rest of the day with temps only rising to low 40s.

[Hawkeye]

Early to mid this week was supposed to be decent, temp-wise, but it's not panning out.  Today was going to be the warmest of the week.  The Euro has been advertising upper 50s to low 60s.  The NWS had mid 50s in the forecast.  Instead, we were stuck in the upper 40s.  Wednesday also had looked like 50s, but now it'll be a struggle to get out of the 40s again.  Thursday and Friday will struggle to get out of the 30s.  Saturday should be another day in the 40s.  It has already been a week since we hit 50º.  The moisture is nice, but, otherwise, this pattern really sucks.  Our average high is approaching 60º for Pete's sake.

[Phil]

6 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Euro also continues to show an environment that (I believe) is ripe for thunderstorms prior to the snow onset. CAPE just a little under 2000 J/kg, lapse rates around 9 C/km, bulk shear around 75 knots, and some moisture to work with too.

Admittedly, I am still learning about thunderstorm parameters like the above so I'm not entirely sure what it translates to but have to imagine those are fairly decent numbers for April and would be enough to kick off some storms.

Need to find some reading on best thunderstorm parameters so I can better understand what I'm looking at and what it means for the realized surface weather. 

Sometimes simple observation is the best educator. Every region has its own unique quirks.

But then again, convection is a fickle, unpredictable beast. You might get screwed during a moderate risk, but experience one of the best thunderstorms of your life on a general/see text day.

[Phil]

Pouring rain here. Much needed, too.

Temps steady in the 50s with a light but steady easterly wind.

[Phil]

@hawkstwelve 00z Euro

[Tom]

Well, well, well...looky what we have here....I see you 0z Euro....#AprilBlitz'22 

@hawkstwelve @CentralNebWeather

 

 

 

[Tom]

Edit: Meant to post this yesterday so I updated the latest data this morning

 

CFSv2 and Euro Weeklies both pointing towards the same theme...."wet & cool to Rule"......the exception would be the Dry signal that continues for parts of the central Plains...

[westMJim]

At the current time there is rain falling here at my house with a temperature of 48. The overnight low was 41.  Yesterday was the 1st day of April that was above average with a official high at Grand Rapids yesterday was 56. That is the warmest it has been so far this month.  In now looks like the the first 70 or better day has been pushed back as the forecasted high on Tuesday in now in the mid 60's with a chance of showers. The average first day of 70 or better is April 4th So this year will be later than average. The earliest date is March 3, 1983 and the latest is May 3, 1950. 

[westMJim]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

CFSv2 and Euro Weeklies both pointing towards the same theme...."wet & cool to Rule"

Not the best weather for the start of baseball season. It affects me as it gets cold out at the old ballpark

[Clinton]

It's going to be a windy Wednesday here with winds 25-35mph.  The storm next week looks to be a fun one with severe weather, lots of rain and a blizzard up north.  Should be a couple of days with large tornadoes possible in Oklahoma, big storm.

[CentralNebWeather]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Well, well, well...looky what we have here....I see you 0z Euro....#AprilBlitz'22 

@hawkstwelve @CentralNebWeather

 

 

 

This looks like a typical spring storm that we have usually had in the past. Until I see moisture falling from the sky this season, I’ll remain very skeptical. Can be very hard to break a drought. I sure hope I’m wrong. 

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings morning disco::

Just beyond the current forecast...good model agreement with a potent system ejecting out of the southwest and into the plains towards the middle of next week...with plenty of time to focus on this system over the coming days and fine tune thinking as it should bring a solid shot for some beneficial precip to the region. In fact...there could even be some snow on the backside of this system..and the hazard outlook from CPC shows a slight risk for heavy snow just to our west in the 4/13-4/14 time frame.

 

[snowstorm83]

From OAX:

“The City of Lincoln is wrapping up the least snowy cold season on record. 

Only 20% of the city's normal snowfall has fallen (summer '21 to summer '22).”

Looking on the right, you can see I gave them permission to use an actual photo of me.

[Iceresistance]

Finally back, couldn't figure out my password.

 

Managed to get 2.4 inches of rain earlier this week.

[jaster220]

15 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS coming in quite a bit further north with the potential snowstorm next week. Pretty much stays as all rain for KFSD. The snowfall map is a thing of my nightmares, with nice accumulations over the entire state besides the SE corner.

Still a lot to iron out with the track of that storm, thankfully.

"Still a lot to iron out with the track of that storm"

12 hour maps have busted hard for mby.

Good luck with your +/-200 hour maps.

[CentralNebWeather]

31 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS coming in quite a bit further north with the potential snowstorm next week. Pretty much stays as all rain for KFSD. The snowfall map is a thing of my nightmares, with nice accumulations over the entire state besides the SE corner.

Still a lot to iron out with the track of that storm, thankfully.

This would be the final kick in the rear for Nebraskans.  Would not be surprised at all if this verified.  Long ways to go.  Have to be pessimistic until the pattern changes.  

[CentralNebWeather]

The old Blowing Dust Advisory.  Welcome to 1936, I mean 2022.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Not to be outdone by the Blowing Dust Warning. 

[Hawkeye]

The Euro is the only model still holding onto Mon-Wed warmth here next week.  All other models blow a cold front through Sunday night.  This morning's GFS and GDPS do surge 70s up here for one day, Wednesday.

[CentralNebWeather]

We've actually had some wind blown showers move through in the last 15 minutes pinwheeling down the back side of the Low.  It actually blew mud against the windows of the school as blowing dust is in the air.  Things you never thought you'd see in the mini Dust Bowl of 2022.

[Hawkeye]

The Euro is slowly trending toward the other models and is now blowing the cold front through Iowa Sunday night.  However, it then lifts the front back up into Iowa on Tuesday, bringing warmth and storms with it.  Other models are keeping us in the 50s Mon/Tue, but the Euro is still getting us into the 60s Monday and 70s Tuesday.

[CentralNebWeather]

Today blows. 

 

[james1976]

Whoever said April, or at least the first half, was gonna be craptastic is dead on. So far every day has been cold, windy with rain or snow (when ya don't want it). I'd be excited if this was Fall but idc for this in the spring. Hopefully that storm next week goes north so Iowa can get some warm air.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings afternoon disco:

Models continue to be in relatively good agreement regarding the presence of a deep upper trough from the N Rockies to Four Corners and strong ridging over the E Coast. This is typically a great setup for development of classic, strong Colorado Low that eventually ejects NE across the Plains. This appears mostly likely to occur in the Tue-Wed time frame, but details regarding exact track and strength of low pressure remains uncertain...and this will be key to determining sensible weather. Looks like classic system with storms/severe wx on warm side, strong wind/cold/snow on back side...and dry slot with fire weather concerns somewhere in between.

[Grizzcoat]

Pretty weak sauce in the long term from DMX. I mean at least take a stab and break down which guidance you prefer or not , but no---

The thermal ridge begins to build back towards the area for the
weekend, allowing for modest warm. First into the 50s on Saturday
and then perhaps the 60s south on Sunday. Of course, this also means
winds will become breezy again. Model solutions diverge from there
as a sharp front is expected to pass across the area. Timing
differences amongst the models result in a spread of temperatures
for early next week. Discrepancies also translate to precipitation
timing with a reinforcing shortwave. Depending on the model or
the timing, this may be the next chance for convection across
Iowa.

 

[gabel23]

4 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Pretty weak sauce in the long term from DMX. I mean at least take a stab and break down which guidance you prefer or not , but no---

The thermal ridge begins to build back towards the area for the
weekend, allowing for modest warm. First into the 50s on Saturday
and then perhaps the 60s south on Sunday. Of course, this also means
winds will become breezy again. Model solutions diverge from there
as a sharp front is expected to pass across the area. Timing
differences amongst the models result in a spread of temperatures
for early next week. Discrepancies also translate to precipitation
timing with a reinforcing shortwave. Depending on the model or
the timing, this may be the next chance for convection across
Iowa.

 

Kind of like OAX.....

Southwesterly flow increases early next week as troughing digs
across the Rockies. There are still many uncertainties within the
deterministic and ensemble solutions, but the large scale pattern
would favorable a stormy few days.

[Grizzcoat]

Pertaining to the previous post about a cold baseball opener-- why in the world in early April do Northern teams without a roof (Twins/both Sox/Cubs/Clev/Det etc.) have games right outta the gate is beyond me. Seattle / Twins was postponed like a month ago. Why not play it in Seattle? I know scheduling is tough and all- but places mentioned above should at least a play a week or so in warmer locations and than roll the dice around April 15th or so---  Just my .02.

Seattle/Twins apparently still on for a double dip Friday- OH boy in front off about 3500 fans in wind chills near 32F. Sounds like a lot of fun for MLB home opener said no one ever. The players gotta hate it also after coming from FL or AZ...  I think it was the 14' Season Opener that Clev/Det like missed the first entire WEEK after scheduling each other back to back home and home series.

[Grizzcoat]

Last April at DSM- wow, what a differnce-three days in a row with high in 80s'. This year- 3 in row in the 40's(upcoming)

[Thunder98]

McAllen, TX was 109F today. They broke their old April All time high of 107F!

[Grizzcoat]

27 minutes ago, Thunder98 said:

McAllen, TX was 109F today. They broke their old April All time high of 107F!

Will be interesting if that gets verified or not. Some pretty crazy swings in the dewpoint before and after the 109F.  The "$" means maintenance is needed on the ASOS, my guess is the temp/dewpoint sensor is kitty wampus but I'am not saying it didn't get to 109, just that the extremes have caused the "$" sign,

KMFE 070253Z 06009KT 10SM CLR 25/15 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP130 T02500150 53051 $
KMFE 070153Z 05009KT 10SM CLR 27/17 A2986 RMK AO2 SLP111 T02720167 $
KMFE 070053Z 02010G20KT 10SM CLR 31/09 A2981 RMK AO2 SLP091 T03110089 $
KMFE 062353Z 36014G22KT 10SM CLR 33/09 A2977 RMK AO2 PK WND 36028/2304 SLP078 T03330094 10428 20333 53030 $
KMFE 062253Z 36019G28KT 10SM CLR 36/11 A2973 RMK AO2 PK WND 34033/2235 SLP067 T03560111 $
KMFE 062153Z 01019G35KT 10SM CLR 38/14 A2970 RMK AO2 PK WND 35036/2054 SLP055 T03780144
KMFE 062053Z 34024G36KT 8SM FEW030 39/13 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 35036/2039 SLP048 T03940128 55004
KMFE 061953Z 35009G19KT 10SM CLR 42/03 A2966 RMK AO2 SLP042 T04220028
KMFE 061853Z 29007G18KT 260V320 10SM CLR 41/08 A2967 RMK AO2 SLP045 T04110083
KMFE 061848Z 33010G18KT 10SM CLR 41/07 A2967 RMK AO2
KMFE 061753Z VRB04KT 7SM CLR 36/21 A2969 RMK AO2 SLP052 T03610206 10367 20200 58005
KMFE 061653Z VRB04KT 7SM CLR 33/21 A2971 RMK AO2 SLP058 T03330211

[Thunder98]

10 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Will be interesting if that gets verified or not. Some pretty crazy swings in the dewpoint before and after the 109F.  The "$" means maintenance is needed on the ASOS, my guess is the temp/dewpoint sensor is kitty wampus but I'am not saying it didn't get to 109, just that the extremes have caused the "$" sign,

KMFE 070253Z 06009KT 10SM CLR 25/15 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP130 T02500150 53051 $
KMFE 070153Z 05009KT 10SM CLR 27/17 A2986 RMK AO2 SLP111 T02720167 $
KMFE 070053Z 02010G20KT 10SM CLR 31/09 A2981 RMK AO2 SLP091 T03110089 $
KMFE 062353Z 36014G22KT 10SM CLR 33/09 A2977 RMK AO2 PK WND 36028/2304 SLP078 T03330094 10428 20333 53030 $
KMFE 062253Z 36019G28KT 10SM CLR 36/11 A2973 RMK AO2 PK WND 34033/2235 SLP067 T03560111 $
KMFE 062153Z 01019G35KT 10SM CLR 38/14 A2970 RMK AO2 PK WND 35036/2054 SLP055 T03780144
KMFE 062053Z 34024G36KT 8SM FEW030 39/13 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 35036/2039 SLP048 T03940128 55004
KMFE 061953Z 35009G19KT 10SM CLR 42/03 A2966 RMK AO2 SLP042 T04220028
KMFE 061853Z 29007G18KT 260V320 10SM CLR 41/08 A2967 RMK AO2 SLP045 T04110083
KMFE 061848Z 33010G18KT 10SM CLR 41/07 A2967 RMK AO2
KMFE 061753Z VRB04KT 7SM CLR 36/21 A2969 RMK AO2 SLP052 T03610206 10367 20200 58005
KMFE 061653Z VRB04KT 7SM CLR 33/21 A2971 RMK AO2 SLP058 T03330211

Nearby weather stations like Harlingen and Weslaco also experienced a dramatic drop in dew points when temps spiked above 100F.

 

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KHRL.html

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KTXW.html

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Last couple runs of GFS showing a pretty strong setup for severe weather next Tuesday across Kansas

[Andie]

7 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Will be interesting if that gets verified or not. Some pretty crazy swings in the dewpoint before and after the 109F.  The "$" means maintenance is needed on the ASOS, my guess is the temp/dewpoint sensor is kitty wampus but I'am not saying it didn't get to 109, just that the extremes have caused the "$" sign,

KMFE 070253Z 06009KT 10SM CLR 25/15 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP130 T02500150 53051 $
KMFE 070153Z 05009KT 10SM CLR 27/17 A2986 RMK AO2 SLP111 T02720167 $
KMFE 070053Z 02010G20KT 10SM CLR 31/09 A2981 RMK AO2 SLP091 T03110089 $
KMFE 062353Z 36014G22KT 10SM CLR 33/09 A2977 RMK AO2 PK WND 36028/2304 SLP078 T03330094 10428 20333 53030 $
KMFE 062253Z 36019G28KT 10SM CLR 36/11 A2973 RMK AO2 PK WND 34033/2235 SLP067 T03560111 $
KMFE 062153Z 01019G35KT 10SM CLR 38/14 A2970 RMK AO2 PK WND 35036/2054 SLP055 T03780144
KMFE 062053Z 34024G36KT 8SM FEW030 39/13 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 35036/2039 SLP048 T03940128 55004
KMFE 061953Z 35009G19KT 10SM CLR 42/03 A2966 RMK AO2 SLP042 T04220028
KMFE 061853Z 29007G18KT 260V320 10SM CLR 41/08 A2967 RMK AO2 SLP045 T04110083
KMFE 061848Z 33010G18KT 10SM CLR 41/07 A2967 RMK AO2
KMFE 061753Z VRB04KT 7SM CLR 36/21 A2969 RMK AO2 SLP052 T03610206 10367 20200 58005
KMFE 061653Z VRB04KT 7SM CLR 33/21 A2971 RMK AO2 SLP058 T03330211

North Texas hit 94* a few days ago.  
Really stinks.  
We’ll hit 70 today.  That’s more like it.  
These big swings are just miserable.  

[Clinton]

Winds were gusty yesterday and will be about the same today, only todays highs here will be in the mid 40s with clouds.

[Madtown]

Light snow n 33 this am. looks like just nw of here should see a foot or 2 by fri night! Lake is gonna get rocking they say

[Hawkeye]

All the morning models are trending toward more good action in the 9-10 day period as the pattern reloads.

[Timmy Supercell]

Had a couple low rumbles in the vicinity, upper 50's out and alternating between partly sunny and darkening sky. 

Airport hasn't registered any thunder but hopefully some kind of lightning map can prove it.