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Alright, alright, alright...it finally looks like Real Spring will make an appearance this Sun thru next Wed around these parts as a classic late season Spring storm is taking shape.  This was a signature part of the LRC that should produce back-to-back cutters.  Last night's 0z Euro flashing that Blitz scenario I had envisioned and some of the other models are trying to do the same.  This should end up being a powerful CO Low that ejects out into the Plains/MW and cuts hard towards the W GL's.  Getting close for ya @hawkstwelve...

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2 rounds of snow for the Northwoods of MN... @Beltrami Island 1st round below...

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Severe Wx threat finally pushing farther N mid next week...I'm sure we'll have a storm thread for this one as it'll feature a clash between Ol' Man Winter vs Spring....Buckle up!

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Oh, and that pattern for Easter weekend....ya, not looking bueno...is there an Easter snow scenario???  I think it is very plausible for someone across the heartland...something tells me the IA magnet may come into play.  Just a hunch.

 

 

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12 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z Euro showed 1200+ jules of CAPE for early next week with 2200+ not too far away in SE SD/NE Nebraska. Might make things a little interesting!

I think the most J/kg I achieved in the PNW was 500-800 J, maybe 1000 in our more "extreme" events. Never got even close to 2000. 

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5/4/17 the Puget Sound saw CAPE around 1500-2000 j/kg. Lead to severe storms in Olympia and a lightning bonanza in Seattle.

Late summer 2013 also brought some gaudy midlevel CAPE, closing in on 2-3000 j/kg in the mountains at times.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

is there an Easter snow scenario???  I think it is very plausible for someone across the heartland...something tells me the IA magnet may come into play.  Just a hunch.

I am not sure why but it seams that when Easter is late there is a good chance of a colder pattern. We shall see.

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

5/4/17 the Puget Sound saw CAPE around 1500-2000 j/kg. Lead to severe storms in Olympia and a lightning bonanza in Seattle.

Late summer 2013 also brought some gaudy midlevel CAPE, closing in on 2-3000 j/kg in the mountains at times.

Ah I stand corrected. I forgot that 2017 reached up to those levels. That was a pretty sweet storm.

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Alright, alright, alright...it finally looks like Real Spring will make an appearance this Sun thru next Wed around these parts as a classic late season Spring storm is taking shape.  This was a signature part of the LRC that should produce back-to-back cutters.  Last night's 0z Euro flashing that Blitz scenario I had envisioned and some of the other models are trying to do the same.  This should end up being a powerful CO Low that ejects out into the Plains/MW and cuts hard towards the W GL's.  Getting close for ya @hawkstwelve...

2.png

 

2 rounds of snow for the Northwoods of MN... @Beltrami Island 1st round below...

1.png

 

Severe Wx threat finally pushing farther N mid next week...I'm sure we'll have a storm thread for this one as it'll feature a clash between Ol' Man Winter vs Spring....Buckle up!

2.gif

 

Oh, and that pattern for Easter weekend....ya, not looking bueno...is there an Easter snow scenario???  I think it is very plausible for someone across the heartland...something tells me the IA magnet may come into play.  Just a hunch.

 

 

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Nice little shift southward with the bullseye band on the 06z GFS. Getting awfully close. As it stands now it shows a foot for KFSD.

Although we had a superstition in the PNW that you never wanted to be in the bullseye this far out as chances are it will change between now and then. So maybe I'm exactly where I want to be at this point! 

gfs-deterministic-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-0045600.png

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Don't remember ever seeing High Wind Warnings and Red Flag/Fire Warnings for 3 days in a row before.  NWS Hastings disco has been tremendous laying out the multiple dangers.  They didn't sugarcoat anything.  Things are bad; long term drought, high winds, dried out vegetation.  Ingredients are ripe for large, out of control fires and dust storms.  Sounds like the Dust Bowl, doesn't it?  To say we are desperate for moisture is an understatement.  Looking at the yards in town yesterday, they look absolutely horrendous. 

Usually my April 5th, I've mowed a time or two depending on lingering snow piles.  My yard is so brown and matted down, I don't see any need to mow for weeks.  What is sad, is I take good care of my yard, lawn spraying service, underground sprinklers.  I've held off turning on the sprinklers.  Most people in my neighborhood have already run them.  Local newspaper said we've only had 0.80" of moisture from Jan. 1st-April 4th.  Last year by April 4th, we had 8.63".  That doesn't go back to Oct., Nov., and Dec. which were also dry. 

Thanks for letting me vent.

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12 hours ago, bud2380 said:

For that matter what is gorilla hail? Just a sensationalist term to describe large hail? 

It's a rare and extreme meteorological condition where the hail pieces fall down in the shape of gorillas. Instead of being roundish balls they have distinct, strong extremities, as well as an ape-like head structure. Truly a marvel of weather phenomenon. Maybe if you are lucky you can catch a gorilla hail stone before the appendages melt, I suggest keeping it in the freezer to preserve it and most of them melt on the way down from the stratosphere. Definitely very cool!

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On 4/4/2022 at 8:53 AM, OttumwaSnomow said:

That seasonal  snowfall map is woefully inaccurate. I meticulously  measured 30" here near Ottumwa  Iowa. On a snow board according to standards. I find  snow  measuring  to be inaccurate  often, cocorahs or observers  that measure at 6 am only?  Probably mostly based on radar?  Ive found 3 sources for average annual  snowfall for my town online, why? Also  spots west  of Hagerstown  md with only 6 inches? Etc etc

Not here. Ofc, mby was a donut hole when it came to snow this winter, so I'm still less than 3 ft total here in "the hole", but most of this area is in the 3-4 foot range just as it shows.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:

Burrr!  Cold opening week for baseball.

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I see a high of 44F here for this Saturday. Going to guess that's around 15 degrees below normal? At least we have about 4 days of warmth to look forward to next week.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I see a high of 44F here for this Saturday. Going to guess that's around 15 degrees below normal? At least we have about 4 days of warmth to look forward to next week.

I could see some 80s early next week.  That will be welcome after the cold Thursday and Friday.

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I'm not happy about the model trend for next week.  The GFS began to tease a less robust warmup, especially early in the week, yesterday.  Other models are now getting on board.  This morning's Canadian is significantly different next week, blowing a cold front through early in the week and then tracking the big storm way south.  The GFS also moves the cold front through early and keeps it there.  So, instead of a big, warm ridge Monday through Wednesday, we get stuck behind the front with clouds and rain.  The Euro is still holding onto more warmth as of last night.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Euro has delayed the warm-up by a day, dropping us to only mid 50s Sunday, but it still keeps the cold farther nw through Wednesday and boosts my area into the 70s Monday through Wednesday.  It still has a big Dakotas blizzard.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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34 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro has delayed the warm-up by a day, dropping us to only mid 50s Sunday, but it still keeps the cold farther nw through Wednesday and boosts my area into the 70s Monday through Wednesday.  It still has a big Dakotas blizzard.

Yup, 12z was the snowiest run yet for my area. Shows 8-9 inches here. Not quite the 12-24+ inches it shows for the majority of the Dakotas but at this point, I'll take it!

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Decided to check to see if this Dakotas blizzard means a decent soaker for Nebraska......it does not. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Euro also continues to show an environment that (I believe) is ripe for thunderstorms prior to the snow onset. CAPE just a little under 2000 J/kg, lapse rates around 9 C/km, bulk shear around 75 knots, and some moisture to work with too.

Admittedly, I am still learning about thunderstorm parameters like the above so I'm not entirely sure what it translates to but have to imagine those are fairly decent numbers for April and would be enough to kick off some storms.

Need to find some reading on best thunderstorm parameters so I can better understand what I'm looking at and what it means for the realized surface weather. 

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Geez Louise... 18z GFS doubled down for the snowy scenario next week. Up to 14 inches now. The southward shift also means much more for NE than previous runs.

I'm sure the track will fluctuate much more between now and then but nice to see the possibility.

gfs-deterministic-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-0024000.png

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We officially picked up 2.17” rain yesterday but it felt like a lot more.  Heavens opened up and it just poured hard for over 30 minutes.  
The area at large was dealing with very heavy rain, hail, and tornados.  Quite a rain maker   We need another in a week or 2  to try to reach average  

5.69 Total rainfall this year.
Still -3.52 for the year.  
 

Per NWS Ft Worth Tx :

4 pm Damage Survey Update

 The NWS survey team has found damage consistent with an EF-2 rating (max winds 112 mph) north of Egan in Johnson County. Additional surveys & damage assessments will be done over the next few days.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Early to mid this week was supposed to be decent, temp-wise, but it's not panning out.  Today was going to be the warmest of the week.  The Euro has been advertising upper 50s to low 60s.  The NWS had mid 50s in the forecast.  Instead, we were stuck in the upper 40s.  Wednesday also had looked like 50s, but now it'll be a struggle to get out of the 40s again.  Thursday and Friday will struggle to get out of the 30s.  Saturday should be another day in the 40s.  It has already been a week since we hit 50º.  The moisture is nice, but, otherwise, this pattern really sucks.  Our average high is approaching 60º for Pete's sake.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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6 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Euro also continues to show an environment that (I believe) is ripe for thunderstorms prior to the snow onset. CAPE just a little under 2000 J/kg, lapse rates around 9 C/km, bulk shear around 75 knots, and some moisture to work with too.

Admittedly, I am still learning about thunderstorm parameters like the above so I'm not entirely sure what it translates to but have to imagine those are fairly decent numbers for April and would be enough to kick off some storms.

Need to find some reading on best thunderstorm parameters so I can better understand what I'm looking at and what it means for the realized surface weather. 

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Sometimes simple observation is the best educator. Every region has its own unique quirks.

But then again, convection is a fickle, unpredictable beast. You might get screwed during a moderate risk, but experience one of the best thunderstorms of your life on a general/see text day.

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Edit: Meant to post this yesterday so I updated the latest data this morning

 

CFSv2 and Euro Weeklies both pointing towards the same theme...."wet & cool to Rule"......the exception would be the Dry signal that continues for parts of the central Plains...

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At the current time there is rain falling here at my house with a temperature of 48. The overnight low was 41.  Yesterday was the 1st day of April that was above average with a official high at Grand Rapids yesterday was 56. That is the warmest it has been so far this month.  In now looks like the the first 70 or better day has been pushed back as the forecasted high on Tuesday in now in the mid 60's with a chance of showers. The average first day of 70 or better is April 4th So this year will be later than average. The earliest date is March 3, 1983 and the latest is May 3, 1950. 

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

CFSv2 and Euro Weeklies both pointing towards the same theme...."wet & cool to Rule"

Not the best weather for the start of baseball season. It affects me as it gets cold out at the old ballpark

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It's going to be a windy Wednesday here with winds 25-35mph.  The storm next week looks to be a fun one with severe weather, lots of rain and a blizzard up north.  Should be a couple of days with large tornadoes possible in Oklahoma, big storm.

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Well, well, well...looky what we have here....I see you 0z Euro....#AprilBlitz'22 

@hawkstwelve @CentralNebWeather

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This looks like a typical spring storm that we have usually had in the past. Until I see moisture falling from the sky this season, I’ll remain very skeptical. Can be very hard to break a drought. I sure hope I’m wrong. 

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NWS Hastings morning disco::

Just beyond the current forecast...good model agreement with a potent system ejecting out of the southwest and into the plains towards the middle of next week...with plenty of time to focus on this system over the coming days and fine tune thinking as it should bring a solid shot for some beneficial precip to the region. In fact...there could even be some snow on the backside of this system..and the hazard outlook from CPC shows a slight risk for heavy snow just to our west in the 4/13-4/14 time frame.

 

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From OAX:

“The City of Lincoln is wrapping up the least snowy cold season on record. 

Only 20% of the city's normal snowfall has fallen (summer '21 to summer '22).”

Looking on the right, you can see I gave them permission to use an actual photo of me.

BEF36FD9-49F3-45BD-9D85-743E297D7A16.thumb.jpeg.a945cc312197ab6914df056652660a34.jpeg

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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12z GFS coming in quite a bit further north with the potential snowstorm next week. Pretty much stays as all rain for KFSD. The snowfall map is a thing of my nightmares, with nice accumulations over the entire state besides the SE corner.

Still a lot to iron out with the track of that storm, thankfully.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

snku_acc.us_nc.png

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15 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS coming in quite a bit further north with the potential snowstorm next week. Pretty much stays as all rain for KFSD. The snowfall map is a thing of my nightmares, with nice accumulations over the entire state besides the SE corner.

Still a lot to iron out with the track of that storm, thankfully.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

snku_acc.us_nc.png

"Still a lot to iron out with the track of that storm"

12 hour maps have busted hard for mby.

Good luck with your +/-200 hour maps.

Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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11 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

"Still a lot to iron out with the track of that storm"

12 hour maps have busted hard for mby.

Good luck with your +/-200 hour maps.

1000% do not expect a 168+ hour map to verify. Still fun to track the changes though. :)

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31 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z GFS coming in quite a bit further north with the potential snowstorm next week. Pretty much stays as all rain for KFSD. The snowfall map is a thing of my nightmares, with nice accumulations over the entire state besides the SE corner.

Still a lot to iron out with the track of that storm, thankfully.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

snku_acc.us_nc.png

This would be the final kick in the rear for Nebraskans.  Would not be surprised at all if this verified.  Long ways to go.  Have to be pessimistic until the pattern changes.  

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The Euro is the only model still holding onto Mon-Wed warmth here next week.  All other models blow a cold front through Sunday night.  This morning's GFS and GDPS do surge 70s up here for one day, Wednesday.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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We've actually had some wind blown showers move through in the last 15 minutes pinwheeling down the back side of the Low.  It actually blew mud against the windows of the school as blowing dust is in the air.  Things you never thought you'd see in the mini Dust Bowl of 2022.

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The Euro is slowly trending toward the other models and is now blowing the cold front through Iowa Sunday night.  However, it then lifts the front back up into Iowa on Tuesday, bringing warmth and storms with it.  Other models are keeping us in the 50s Mon/Tue, but the Euro is still getting us into the 60s Monday and 70s Tuesday.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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And the 12z Euro follows in the 12z GFS footsteps in bringing the storm further north and maintaining all rain for KFSD. 

It wouldn't be interesting without the storm track fluctuating. Should have a better idea once the system moves inland from the west coast around Monday. Until then, going to get some swings!

Weather station: https://sodakweather.com

Twitter: https://twitter.com/SoDakWx

 

 

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Whoever said April, or at least the first half, was gonna be craptastic is dead on. So far every day has been cold, windy with rain or snow (when ya don't want it). I'd be excited if this was Fall but idc for this in the spring. Hopefully that storm next week goes north so Iowa can get some warm air.

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NWS Hastings afternoon disco:

Models continue to be in relatively good agreement regarding the presence of a deep upper trough from the N Rockies to Four Corners and strong ridging over the E Coast. This is typically a great setup for development of classic, strong Colorado Low that eventually ejects NE across the Plains. This appears mostly likely to occur in the Tue-Wed time frame, but details regarding exact track and strength of low pressure remains uncertain...and this will be key to determining sensible weather. Looks like classic system with storms/severe wx on warm side, strong wind/cold/snow on back side...and dry slot with fire weather concerns somewhere in between.

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