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April 2022 Observations & Discussions


Iceresistance

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The official high at Grand Rapids yesterday was 58 and for a change there was a reported 77% of possible sunshine. There were just a few sprinkles here in MBY this morning and the overnight low here was 49 it looks like the overnight low at GRR will be 48 At this time with clear skies it its 49 here.

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Using some LR pattern tools, I'm seeing troughs entering So Cal late April into the opening weeks of MAY.  This would be a very welcome pattern that will lead to slow, cut-off storms to eject out into the C/S Plains heading into the 1st half of MAY.  The jet will undoubtedly slow down, all awhile, the blocking up north will continue to force storms to take a southerly track.  Could we have an extended Bowling Ball season?  It would be very interesting to see that happen bc in MAY we generally don't see that happen.  Welcome to 2022...

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

I went outside about an hour ago and it actually felt a bit balmy as we are situated in the warm tongue.  The temp was 59F but it has now dropped into the low 50's as the CF approaches.  Sunday was a picture perfect day, albeit a bit gusty, the sunshine made up for it.  My goodness, its amazing what the sun can do to your psyche, esp since the stretch o abnormally cloudy, dreary and cold days we have endured.  70's look like a good bet on Wednesday over here and a severe wx threat...

  image.gif

Nasty set-up Wednesday, this area was hit with a nasty tornado outbreak back in December and there will likely be big tornadoes again.  The severe storms look to skip over me this time but towards the end of the month I probably won't get so lucky.

  ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely across a
   large portion of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest,
   Ohio Valley, and Southeast on Wednesday. Large to very large hail,
   damaging winds and tornadoes will all be possible. Strong tornadoes
   may occur.
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52 and I see echoes on the radar coming from central KY. ;)

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Heading for 90 today.  Only 15% chance of rain.  Windy 29mph 
Tomorrow will be different. 40% chance, 86 muggy degrees.  Windy 23 mph. 
(If you can call that different)

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Several low booms I'm hearing a few miles to my north/NW. A bit louder than the ones on 4/7 and more frequently. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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The core of this was just a couple miles to our north. Somebody got a hailstorm out of it because a few pieces of pea size hail fell for just a moment before a few louder booms. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Dark again. Almost dark enough to switch the street lights on. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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The long-range Euro continues to be horrible.  This morning's op run has endless 40s and 30s for highs through day ten, and it would continue for days beyond that if the op run went out farther.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The long-range Euro continues to be horrible.  This morning's op run has endless 40s and 30s for highs through day ten, and it would continue for days beyond that if the op run went out farther.

The weather patterns are like: "FINE! If the beginning of winter was like Spring. Then the Beginning of Spring will be like Winter!"

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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Briefly dipped below freezing this AM. Now into the mid-60s as return flow/WAA takes over.

Warm-up has officially arrived. Could reach the low 80s on Wednesday.

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More fires. Look at the vegetation. Should be green everywhere in a normal year. Nothing normal about this year. Tomorrow could be a repeat or worse of fires from last Thursday if a fire gets going. Never seen anything like this in all my years living in Central Nebraska. My father is 81 and says it is the worst drought conditions he’s seen in his lifetime at this point of the year. 

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

More fires. Look at the vegetation. Should be green everywhere in a normal year. Nothing normal about this year. Tomorrow could be a repeat or worse of fires from last Thursday if a fire gets going. Never seen anything like this in all my years living in Central Nebraska. My father is 81 and says it is the worst drought conditions he’s seen in his lifetime at this point of the year. 

This is why vaping should be encouraged 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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1 hour ago, luminen said:

Nice sunny day here at 50F.

Love your icon!🤠👍

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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11 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

52 and I see echoes on the radar coming from central KY. ;)

Cant wait to get severe weather in my neck of the woods. Had some lightning this morning, but that is about it.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Felt so nice today. Temps reached the 70s w/ sunshine, but clouds rapidly increased. Still was a very mild day. Luv it!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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40 minutes ago, Niko said:

Cant wait to get severe weather in my neck of the woods. Had some lightning this morning, but that is about it.

This should be a stretch of at least 3 days in a row I have thunder. Wednesday looks promising with western KY in an Enhanced Risk. Maybe a couple lines/complexes form in the eastern section. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Back to Back warm days here in Chitown has brighten up the mood around these parts.  Made it up to 62F later in the afternoon when the sun made an appearance after the cloud deck from the disturbance that tracked south of here by @Timmy Supercell back yard.  Looking forward to a bright and sunny day today with even warmer temps up near 70F!

 

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Yikes, the 0z Euro continues to advertise and Easter Sunday Snow along the I-80 corridor which makes its way E into the Lower Lakes.  This is part of the double barrel low pattern I've seen cycle a few times this past season.

1.png

 

On a brighter note, the models are trending towards the idea of a more encouraging pattern for the central Plains later in the month as a wetter pattern is in the cards.  There are a couple systems I've got on my calendar before the month is out.

Instead of seeing the models trend drier in the extended, they are trending the opposite way for our friends in NE....all the globals are hinting at this as the pattern gets really blocked up late month.

gem-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_8.png

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High of 86* today and a 40% chance of severe storms this afternoon. 
4-8 pm. 

I think the worst of it will be east of DFW but I’d gladly take the rain.  Currently 73* with 85% humidity 

Wind 16-37 mph.   It’s going to get bouncy today. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Smell of smoke in the air this morning from the fires in the Flint Hills of Kansas. Wind is already howling out of the south/southeast. Another day of high fire danger as we get 50 mph or higher gusts from the south then 50 mph or higher gusts from the northwest behind the front. As usual, we are dry slotted, so the drought rolls on unabated. 

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The official high yesterday at Grand Rapids was 59 at 10 AM a cold front then came thru and our temperatures slowly fell to the mid then low 50's. The overnight low here at my house was 30 and there is a lot of frost this morning. At the current time it is clear and 33. After a very brief warm up it looks to turn much colder and that cold looks to hang around for good while. Some long range hints point to well below average temperatures to hang around for the rest of April and maybe even into the start of May. Grand Rapids has not yet reached 70. While the average 1st 70 days is April 4 the latest is May 3rd in 1950 of note 1950 had a cold summer season. My guess is that it will reach 70 this week but we shall see.

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2 minutes ago, jcwxguy said:

Sun just came out in Fremont and it's now warming up pretty quick

 

LNK went from 60 to 81 in two hours. Cloud cover seemed expansive but moved out very quickly. 

  • scream 1

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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37 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

1:30 PM, temp has rocketed to 86 degrees with 13% humidity and a dew of 26 with winds gusting out of the west to 45 MPH.  Dew was in the 50s less than 2 hours ago.  As I'm looking north and west, it appears a dust cloud is forming.  

It's crazy with as many systems that have moved through the middle part of the country and upper MW that you guys get zero precip.

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46 minutes ago, james1976 said:

It's crazy with as many systems that have moved through the middle part of the country and upper MW that you guys get zero precip.

We used to joke about it, but it is no laughing matter now.  Storms fly right through, then all of a sudden hit a brick wall.  Never seem to have any blocking that can help us.  You would think we would get lucky with at least 1 system.  Planting will be starting any day, and most farmers will now have to turn on irrigation systems.  If it wasn't a crisis earlier, we are there now.

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Models have backed off a bit with the later period cold, which includes shifting the Easter sun/mon system north.  The Euro, which a couple runs ago was very cold through day 10 and beyond, has removed the 30s and now has warmth surging back into the region by day 10.  I hope this sticks.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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