Madtown Posted March 25, 2022 Report Share Posted March 25, 2022 Let's get this party started people! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 26, 2022 Report Share Posted March 26, 2022 It's going to end March with a BANG! Big storm system for the Entire Plains & Midwest to end March, with Severe Storms in the Southern Plains & Dixie Alley, Rain/Snow in the Great Plains, Midwest, & eventually mostly rain in the Northeast. Then, a Secondary system arrives in the Southern Plains to start April, & when that system exits into the Mid-Atlantic on the first Sunday of April, a 3rd system comes into the Southern Plains at the same time. A favorable Rinse & Repeat I guess. 2 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 26, 2022 Report Share Posted March 26, 2022 @Madtown @Beltrami Island...0z Euro suggesting a Beast and potential Blitz conditions up near the Northwoods....what a season...this would put an exclamation point on your season! I'm going to be paying attn to this one a bit more closely....this MAR has been quite a doozy and quite "fitting" to end it with a BANG... 0z GFS... 0z Canadien... Woah, looking deeper into the overnight data, the 0z EPS is showing more wrap around snows over the Plains.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 26, 2022 Report Share Posted March 26, 2022 0z NWS Blend going Big up North... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 26, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2022 Thinking I may be too far east on this one. More rain freezing rain here us my thought now...On the southern edge days out is noooooo bueno. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 26, 2022 Report Share Posted March 26, 2022 GFS is much further east with the precipitation compared with the Euro. Timing will be key but looks like the severe weather will split around mby. 0z GFS 0z Euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 26, 2022 Report Share Posted March 26, 2022 This storm will be a big severe weather producer across the south and the same areas that were hit last week. Impressive day 5 outlook 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 26, 2022 Report Share Posted March 26, 2022 There's also a D6 Slight for the Mid-Atlantic 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 26, 2022 Report Share Posted March 26, 2022 2 hours ago, Clinton said: This storm will be a big severe weather producer across the south and the same areas that were hit last week. Impressive day 5 outlook Don't be surprised to see a D3 Enhanced risk in Oklahoma & Texas tomorrow, the D4 Slight risk is very broad. 2 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 26, 2022 Report Share Posted March 26, 2022 No comment. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 26, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 26, 2022 Well.... Dont get much better than this! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 26, 2022 Report Share Posted March 26, 2022 6 minutes ago, Madtown said: Well.... Dont get much better than this! I think this one has just you written all over it. I'm thinking a rainstorm for me followed by 2" of slop on the back end. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 26, 2022 Report Share Posted March 26, 2022 Urgh, the WPC is trending the QPF ever so slightly drier compared to the previous forecast. Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 27, 2022 Report Share Posted March 27, 2022 The trend is not great for Nebraska and Iowa. Models are mostly keeping the heavy rain and storms east and south of Iowa, and then the strong low doesn't wrap up until it's mostly northeast of Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 27, 2022 Report Share Posted March 27, 2022 D3 Broad Slight Risk in place from the Southern Plains to the Midwest But D4 O_O Very Strong wording from the SPC ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D4/WED... ...DISCUSSION... An appreciable severe-weather risk appears increasingly likely across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Middle Gulf Coast region on Wednesday/Day 4. This includes the potential for widespread damaging winds and tornadoes, including the possibility of a regional tornado outbreak including strong (EF2+) tornadoes. On Wednesday, an increasingly moist air mass is expected across the region ahead of an upper-level trough that will take on an increasingly negative tilt, with very strong deep-layer/low-level winds coincident with a modestly unstable air mass. The potential for extensive early day precipitation/cloud cover ahead of the cold front casts some uncertainty in terms of destabilization details, particularly with northward extent into the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys. Regardless, the extremely strong wind fields are concerning for the potential for long-lived supercells/fast-moving bowing segments where modest destabilization does occur. The most-concerning severe-favorable ingredients currently appear most probable across sizable portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. And finally, a Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather potential on D5 1 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 27, 2022 Report Share Posted March 27, 2022 10 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: Canadian continues to be among the more snowy solutions even though it delays the changeover from rain to snow until Wednesday evening, later than other models. These higher totals for N Plains/SD are mainly due to a deformation-like band setting up behind the low as it departs to the east that allows for heavier precip than what other models are picking up on. At least in PNW weather patterns, the Canadian often times had a propensity to model the advection of more precip into the region than what actually ended up occuring. Not sure if it exhibits that same behavior over the central CONUS or not but could be a case of that happening again as most models show limited precip on the NW/backside of the low. I will sell my kidneys if temps aloft are this cold. 4 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 27, 2022 Report Share Posted March 27, 2022 Models are not on the same page with regard to the complex interaction between the multiple pieces of energy. The Euro is shifting east and northeast because it digs the Canadian energy southward farther east (or even much farther east) than other models. Now the Euro doesn't even really spin up the main low until it gets into Canada. Most of Iowa gets almost nothing. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 27, 2022 3 hours ago, MSP_Weather said: I will sell my kidneys if temps aloft are this cold. maybe just one to be on the safe side 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted March 28, 2022 Report Share Posted March 28, 2022 Oh baby!! Storms AND a Kidney Auction!!! Things are picking up ! 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Andie said: Oh baby!! Storms AND a Kidney Auction!!! Things are picking up ! I knew this thread was going places when I created it 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted March 28, 2022 Report Share Posted March 28, 2022 1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said: GFS has really cut back on any meaningful precip or snow accumulations for SE SD. System forms, weakens over the Rockies, then re-forms east of us over the GL with not much to write home about in between. Seems awfully familiar to the last storm which looked like something nice in the medium range but quickly fell apart as it got closer. Lame. Storms busting isn’t solely a PNW phenomenon. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 28, 2022 Report Share Posted March 28, 2022 0z Euro is pretty much lining up with most of the CAM's and showing a very long line of storms stretching all the way down from @Andie @OKwx2k4 @Iceresistance up near @Clinton and the Lower Lakes region... The wintry part of the system is trending away from anything of significance except for the snowbelt region near the U.P. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 28, 2022 Report Share Posted March 28, 2022 The SPC is strongly thinking that the storms that are expected for my area are likely to go linear very quickly 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 28, 2022 Report Share Posted March 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: The SPC is strongly thinking that the storms that are expected for my area are likely to go linear very quickly Straight-line winds could get severe for your area...do you live out in the open areas of OKC??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted March 28, 2022 Report Share Posted March 28, 2022 Wow. Here we go. High of 86 will definitely drive these storms here. This feels more like early May storms. Grass still brown though. Is it just me or is it acting a little premature weather wise? 1 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 28, 2022 Report Share Posted March 28, 2022 2 hours ago, Tom said: 0z Euro is pretty much lining up with most of the CAM's and showing a very long line of storms stretching all the way down from @Andie @OKwx2k4 @Iceresistance up near @Clinton and the Lower Lakes region... The wintry part of the system is trending away from anything of significance except for the snowbelt region near the U.P. Strong straight line winds and hail look to be the primary threats for mby. Storms look to move in after dark and another good soaker looks to be on the way with 1-2 inches possible. The GFS has a sharp western edge more like a snow storm. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 28, 2022 Report Share Posted March 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Tom said: Straight-line winds could get severe for your area...do you live out in the open areas of OKC??? I live ~35 Miles SE of OKC 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 28, 2022 looks like a .25 of freezing rain, some rain then 3-4" of snow...not what the hope was going into this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 28, 2022 Report Share Posted March 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Andie said: Wow. Here we go. High of 86 will definitely drive these storms here. This feels more like early May storms. Grass still brown though. Is it just me or is it acting a little premature weather wise? Down south, yea…that’s the way I’ve been looking at it…it really started in the opening days of March across the MW with a major severe wx outbreak. That was rather unusual. The tornadoes in IA and then into IL/WI/IN was pretty early to say the least, plus the strength of the storms raised some eye brows. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted March 28, 2022 Report Share Posted March 28, 2022 Tonight and next 2 days we have elevated risk for severe storms. it was 94* yesterday and mid 80’s today and tomorrow. Very dry. Wild fires west of Ft Worth out to Abilene. This past few days saw over 100,000 acres burned. It’s dangerous out there. Rain over the next few days will help but we need a good deal more. https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/texas-news/tracking-weekend-wildfires-across-texas/2925834/ 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 28, 2022 Report Share Posted March 28, 2022 34 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: Well the snow chances have pretty much faded into oblivion but it does look like we might have some thunderstorms to contend with. 12z NAM is showing 700-800 jules of CAPE Tuesday evening over far SE SD and 1500-1600 jules not too far away over NW IA. Not sure when the typical thunderstorm season starts around these parts (May/June?) but would be nice to get something interesting out of this storm so I'm crossing my fingers. Another nothingburger around here. This is getting pretty serious to keep missing out on storms and moisture. My father in law is 76 years old, and told me yesterday he only remembers one other year in this area where things were as dry as they are now. Usually yards are starting to green up a little by now, but everything is an ugly brown. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted March 28, 2022 Report Share Posted March 28, 2022 12z GFS with a snowier solution on the NW side of the storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 28, 2022 Report Share Posted March 28, 2022 The GFS and, especially, the Canadian are trying to wrap up the system more over Iowa. The UK and Euro are not buying that at all. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 28, 2022 Report Share Posted March 28, 2022 MPX must have a good AFD cooking seeing as they still haven't posted their afternoon one. Unless they pull an OAX where they wait until 23Z then it just ends up being something stupid like "snow is possible". 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 29, 2022 Report Share Posted March 29, 2022 MPX: Quote KEY MESSAGES: - Large system to bring a variety of precipitation types Tuesday night into Thursday. - A degree or two difference could result in more substantial ice accumulation across central MN and northwest WI Tuesday night. Thick cirrus overhead has halted warming this afternoon. Increasing low level moisture has resulted in humidities stabilizing and thus has reduced the elevated fire weather threat. The moisture advection will continue into midweek as the trough across the western U.S. advances east. Isentropic upglide-induced precipitation will break out Tuesday afternoon and intensify Tuesday night. Dry, easterly low level flow will keep surface dew points in the teens across WI and lower 20s across central MN during the onset of the precipitation. The intensifying precipitation should cause surface temps to wetbulb down into the lower 30s Tuesday evening in those areas, resulting in a freezing rain threat. The amount of potential ice accumulation is highly dependent on surface wetbulb temperatures, and only 1 or 2F could mean significantly different outcomes. HREF has a large area of a tenth of an inch of ice across central MN and WC/NW WI. However, temperatures only slightly below freezing aren`t efficient in ice production so unless it`s even colder, say the upper 20s, then only minor ice accumulation should be expected. A further increase in moisture late should bring temperatures above freezing by Wednesday morning, ending any ice threat. Precipitation type across western MN is equally as uncertain Wednesday with the lack of consistent ice aloft per forecast soundings. Heavier bursts of precipition could be in the form of snow, but absent any convective lift into the drier DGZ, it may be more of a drizzle/light rain scenario with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. Perhaps the biggest uncertainty comes Wednesday night with the trailing piece of energy. Model consistency on this feature remains poor, but there is some signal for a band of snow setting up from southern MN to western and central WI. This band may be steady enough to generate accumulation, but at this point amounts would probably be light given the marginal boundary layer temperatures. Dry weather returns Thursday, but a compact shortwave heading east across the Upper Midwest Friday night and Saturday will bring our next chance for rain and snow. A modest warming trend may arrive early next week, but no big warm ups are foreseen yet. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted March 29, 2022 Report Share Posted March 29, 2022 Who knows what will happen tomorrow temperature wise. NAM models keep Omaha in the 40s, while the other models have us in the 60s-low 70s. Seems most are discounting the NAM models, but they aren't budging on their highs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 29, 2022 Report Share Posted March 29, 2022 It's mostly a rainer here, even on cold NAM (which has me at 32, so still liquid). 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 29, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 29, 2022 latest GFS. .5 freezing rain followed by 14" of snow...that would be one for the ages. Jury is still out on that happening 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 29, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 29, 2022 Marquette news take on the snow part 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 29, 2022 Report Share Posted March 29, 2022 That wind is just crazy right now 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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