April 2022 (April 2008/2011 redux)

[Deweydog]

So it’s about that time…

What’s everybody’s summer predictions???

Here’s mine:

June: Slightly cool/average precip

July: Warm/dry

August: Average/wet

[Meatyorologist]

June: Average-ish temps and dry

July: A tad cool and damp

August: Warm and dry

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

So it’s about that time…

What’s everybody’s summer predictions???

Here’s mine:

June: Slightly cool/average precip

July: Warm/dry

August: Average/wet

Sounds about right. 

[Meatyorologist]

30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This is pretty inaccurate.      Go back farther and our summers were not normally like the coldest and wettest years.   Those were on far end of the climo spectrum.     This pattern all summer would be extremely unusual and should not be expected.

convergence zone gonna convergence zone

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

convergence zone gonna convergence zone

This is always true!  

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

This is always true!  

quoted the wrong post  meant your recent reply to me lol

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

quoted the wrong post  meant your recent reply to me lol

But what you said is a universal truth... it always applies!  

[AlTahoe]

26 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m talking about 500mb patterns. The last decade has been dominated by +TNH like patterns, which is responsible for the warm/dry conditions experienced in the western US, particularly during the warm season. It’s been driven by changes in convection over the west-Pacific warm pool (and the off-equator subtropical NPAC in general).

The 1940s are the closest dynamic analog I can think of (though not nearly as extreme). Which of course were followed by the opposite tendency dominating the 1950s.

Same story with the Great Pacific Climate Shift of 1976 occurring immediately after the most anomalous multiyear Niña/-PDO cycle on record.

Another interesting pattern I have noticed for Tahoe is that we have had a 100"+ snow month in 4 out of the last 6 winters. 1970 - 1994 featured 1 month with 100" of snow.

So the ridging pattern has been very amplified this decade which also makes sense for our extreme drought months as well. 

Similar periods were the 1910's and 1948-1953.

[TacomaWaWx]

Probably a slightly wetter and warmer than normal June.

 Warmer drier than normal july

 warmer than normal average august. 

[TacomaWaWx]

53 here after a low of 38 and mostly sunny. We will see if we can manage a freeze here in the next week or so. 

[Meatyorologist]

[T-Town]

Hail shower. 

[Phil]

I have no idea about summer yet. Basically just a wild guess on my part.

Jun: Average/Average

Jul: Average/leaning wet.

Aug: Above average/leaning wet.

[T-Town]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Okie dokie...

 

As ready as I am for summer, I say let’s do it. 

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Another interesting pattern I have noticed for Tahoe is that we have had a 100"+ snow month in 4 out of the last 6 winters. 1970 - 1994 featured 1 month with 100" of snow.

So the ridging pattern has been very amplified this decade which also makes sense for our extreme drought months as well. 

Similar periods were the 1910's and 1948-1953.

Interesting since 1970-1994 roughly correlates to the last Atlantic cold cycle. Lots of climate shifts worldwide in that 1995-2000 period.

The 1960s had a lot of -NAO, so I’m assuming that was a very wet decade in CA. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

60F and mostly cloudy but dry. Pretty standard stretch of spring weather. Not sure what all the fuss is about?

[gusky]

Still don't quite know how this works, but here's a link to a PNW weather "Community" on Twitter (not mine)
https://twitter.com/i/communities/1511430780425162756

[Omegaraptor]

31 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

60F and mostly cloudy but dry. Pretty standard stretch of spring weather. Not sure what all the fuss is about?

Think the last two Aprils in particular were an anomaly and kinda distorted our perception of normal April weather. 

To be fair, I usually do not run the heat in my dorm room and leave the window open. There is somewhat of a winterlike chill to the air today. Not exactly pleasant outside of direct sunlight, which there luckily is. Then again it is early April, warmth isn't exactly climo at this point.

[gusky]

Pea sized hail coming down in N Seattle

[Phil]

24 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Think the last two Aprils in particular were an anomaly and kinda distorted our perception of normal April weather. 

To be fair, I usually do not run the heat in my dorm room and leave the window open. There is somewhat of a winterlike chill to the air today. Not exactly pleasant outside of direct sunlight, which there luckily is. Then again it is early April, warmth isn't exactly climo at this point.

Early April is analogous to early/mid November in much of the country. We’re barely out of winter, let-alone anywhere close to summer.

[The Blob]

So should I bring the lemon tree in next week?

[Cascadia_Wx]

High of only 52 so far today despite a good deal of sunbreaks the wind has been cold though when the sun goes behind clouds just had a small downpour that dropped the temp to 47. Tonight looks like a good chance for frost if it clears out 

Yesterday was 52/39 with a midnight low could see one tonight too have picked up close to 3/4” precip since Sunday evening about an inch month to date 

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

High of only 52 so far today despite a good deal of sunbreaks the wind had been cold though when the sun goes behind clouds just had a small downpour that dropped the temp to 47. Tonight looks like a good chance for frost if it clears out 

Yesterday was 52/39 with a midnight low could see one tonight too have picked up close to 3/4” precip since Sunday evening about an inch month to date 

Should get down to freezing in most places. If KSEA gets there it will be the first April freeze since 2008.

[TT-SEA]

Pic of my son today at Crystal... the kid makes me nervous!

[snow_wizard]

I would sure like to see the 6 to 10 inch snowstorm the ECMWF is showing for next week.  I will say it's conceivable with the pattern coming up, but exceedingly unlikely.  1911 is the only year on record that a really big snowstorm has happened in the Central Puget Sound in the period of record so deep into April.

[snow_wizard]

22 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Should get down to freezing in most places. If KSEA gets there it will be the first April freeze since 2008.

The stuff coming up looks even more impressive.  At face value the models are showing what would be an extraordinary cold trough digging in for a long stay starting late this week.  Low temps could be in the coldest it ever gets this late category by early next week.  We'll have to see if it gives 2008 and 2011 a run for their money.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The stuff coming up look seven more impressive.  At face value the models are showing what would be an extraordinary cold trough digging in for a long stay starting late this week.  Low temps could be in the coldest it ever gets this late category by early next week.  We'll have to see if it gives 2008 and 2011 a run for their money.

My guess is that the upcoming troughy period lasts around a week, followed by a return to +EPO, with perhaps a more zonal element to it than we've seen since the first half of December. Ironically the second half of April may bring more typical -ENSO/-QBO zonal troughing than we saw all second half of winter.

[TT-SEA]

24 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I would sure like to see the 6 to 10 inch snowstorm the ECMWF is showing for next week.  I will say it's conceivable with the pattern coming up, but exceedingly unlikely.  1911 is the only year on record that a really big snowstorm has happened in the Central Puget Sound in the period of record so deep into April.

What were the dates in April 1911?

Wow... the summer of 1911 was gorgeous!    It warmed up during the second half of April that year... there was no precip at Snoqualmie Falls during the last 12 days of the month.    The first couple weeks of May weren't so great but then summer kicked into high gear later in May.    There was basically no rain from 5/26 through 6/26.    Then a couple wet days at the end of June per usual... but July and August were just spectacular.    

1910-11 was also a La Nina winter.

[BLI snowman]

4 hours ago, MossMan said:

Can I hitch a ride? I can be your service animal and could lay at your feet on the plane! Anything to get me away from this crap weather for a week! 

Sneak into my suitcase! Just gotta get down to PDX by 6am!

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What were the dates in April 1911?

Wow... the summer of 1911 was gorgeous!    It warmed up during the second half of April that year... there was no precip at Snoqualmie Falls during the last 12 days of the month.    The first couple weeks of May weren't so great but then summer kicked into high gear later in May.    There was basically no rain from 5/26 through 6/26.    Then a couple wet days at the end of June per usual... but July and August were just spectacular.    

1910-11 was also a La Nina winter.

I think it was the 12th / 13th.  Landsburg had over 6 inches with that.

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What were the dates in April 1911?

Wow... the summer of 1911 was gorgeous!    It warmed up during the second half of April that year... there was no precip at Snoqualmie Falls during the last 12 days of the month.    The first couple weeks of May weren't so great but then summer kicked in high gear later in May.    There was basically no rain from 5/26 through 6/26.    Then a couple wet days at the end of June per usual... but July and August were just spectacular.    

According to the DT Seattle federal building records, July was quite the dynamic month. Large 20-30°F high temperature shifts in the span of a few days, going from 90s to 60s and back. August was quite chilly.

I know however that you were looking at the Cedar Lake station, which shows August as a warmer than usual month that year. And July is an absolute torchfest. The two stations seem entirely disconnected from one another, one showing intense heat waves lasting for days on end and erasing negative departures, while the other shows a rather dynamic, but more realistic, July pattern.

Given that the DT federal building's station was the official Weather Bureau station for Seattle, and that we know the early 20th century was much cooler than now, I think it's safe to say that Cedar Lake station had an overexposure problem. Other stations in 1911 recorded cool weather.

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

What were the dates in April 1911?

Wow... the summer of 1911 was gorgeous!    It warmed up during the second half of April that year... there was no precip at Snoqualmie Falls during the last 12 days of the month.    The first couple weeks of May weren't so great but then summer kicked into high gear later in May.    There was basically no rain from 5/26 through 6/26.    Then a couple wet days at the end of June per usual... but July and August were just spectacular.    

1910-11 was also a La Nina winter.

FWIW, 1911 was an El Niño transition year. The winter of 1911/12 was a borderline strong niño, in fact.

Probably not in the cards this year, with respect to ENSO.

[Meatyorologist]

29 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That’s crazy PDX had one as late as the 11th just last year 

KSEA got close that day... To 34°F. The lowest since 2011's 33°F.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

According to the DT Seattle federal building records, July was quite the dynamic month. Large 20-30°F high temperature shifts in the span of a few days, going from 90s to 60s and back. August was quite chilly.

I know however that you were looking at the Cedar Lake station, which shows August as a warmer than usual month that year. And July is an absolute torchfest. The two stations seem entirely disconnected from one another, one showing intense heat waves lasting for days on end and erasing negative departures, while the other shows a rather dynamic, but more realistic, July pattern.

Given that the DT federal building's station was the official Weather Bureau station for Seattle, and that we know the early 20th century was much cooler than now, I think it's safe to say that Cedar Lake station had an overexposure problem. Other stations in 1911 recorded cool weather.

Not even looking at temps... just looking at just rainfall stats at Snoqualmie Falls.     That was a spectacular summer in terms of days with rain.    Really started during the second half of April.  

[TT-SEA]

The federal building station in Seattle only recorded total rainfall of .75 for all of JJA in 1911.    It was an unusually dry summer there... as it was out here.  

Last summer... SEA record 2.02 inches of rain in JJA and that was a dry summer.     But 1911 was more impressive.

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

According to the DT Seattle federal building records, July was quite the dynamic month. Large 20-30°F high temperature shifts in the span of a few days, going from 90s to 60s and back. August was quite chilly.

I know however that you were looking at the Cedar Lake station, which shows August as a warmer than usual month that year. And July is an absolute torchfest. The two stations seem entirely disconnected from one another, one showing intense heat waves lasting for days on end and erasing negative departures, while the other shows a rather dynamic, but more realistic, July pattern.

Given that the DT federal building's station was the official Weather Bureau station for Seattle, and that we know the early 20th century was much cooler than now, I think it's safe to say that Cedar Lake station had an overexposure problem. Other stations in 1911 recorded cool weather.

A lot of old station records around here also had overexposure issues. The 110°F at KMRB in 1930, for instance, is almost certainly BS.

Not sure why it was such a systemic issue. Either siting or poor maintenance. Or both.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

The federal building station in Seattle only recorded total rainfall of .75 for all of JJA in 1911.    It was an unusually dry summer there... as it was out here.  

And what little rain did fall fell on days in which there was obvious cloudcover. No wet thunderstorms on warm evenings.

August and September 2013 were great for that. Warm and wet, mostly from thunderstorms. Would take a repeat.

[SnowWillarrive]

46 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I would sure like to see the 6 to 10 inch snowstorm the ECMWF is showing for next week.  I will say it's conceivable with the pattern coming up, but exceedingly unlikely.  1911 is the only year on record that a really big snowstorm has happened in the Central Puget Sound in the period of record so deep into April.

Could you imagine if that really happened? Would really make this season special. 

[Phil]

Holy crap..watch the end of this video.

 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Holy crap..watch the end of this video.

 

Talk about risking your life... wow!