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April 2022 (April 2008/2011 redux)


TacomaWaWx

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Absolutely amazing how cold the 40s feel this time of year.  Currently 42 after a scorching high of 46.  Amazingly the models show even colder weather mid week.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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20 minutes ago, Outpost54 said:

Another noteworthy change here is that the GFS now shows most of the Portland area just kissing the freezing mark while all this snow is falling. Previously it had been putting up all these crazy snowfall amounts with temperatures in the mid 30s. This is significant as it makes the idea of heavy accumulations much more plausible if it is actually 32 degrees while this is happening.

gfs-deterministic-washington-t2m_f_min_last24-9743200.png

Don’t be embarrassed. Zulu time can be VERY confusing for beginners.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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15 minutes ago, nwsnow said:

GFS sounding looks good. 32F. Euro and GRAF have more modest accumulation due to 33-34F surface temps.  

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_3.png

 

image.thumb.png.4f9c14650d99044234c276f6c72e3ec0.png

That is drop dead gorgeous for Portland.  Incredibly rare for this time of year.  Should be a nice surge of cold N winds in the backwash behind the low as well.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Some real hefty precip rates modeled with that low which is pretty nice to see. Coast range could get absolutely hammered.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Well this is a mess I've come back to...

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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52 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I’ve had my skull cut into twice and I have an RNS on my left temporal lobe, with some nodes stuck down deeper into it where my language and math are processed, and whatever is happening has caused me convulsions while I’m conscious since I was 3.

I came to peace knowing that my last moments alive might be joking around with anesthesiologists.

The stimulator works somewhat, but I still have a lot of seizures and memory problems, as well as a general extreme sadness because of my life before 2017. 

You’re a strong dude. Glad you’re here.

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6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Heavy hail! 

69ACD7FF-8DBE-48EE-96D7-1B341C04BFED.jpeg

C’mon, even you have to admit this is better than bland ridging.

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

C’mon, even you have to admit this is better than bland ridging.

It’s exciting but I am ready for some sun and warmth. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That is drop dead gorgeous for Portland.  Incredibly rare for this time of year.  Should be a nice surge of cold N winds in the backwash behind the low as well.

Yeah it is looking like a pretty remarkable setup. I think there is going to be significant snow accumulation somewhere in the lowlands of NW OR and SW WA. The main models seem to favor Portland but we still have some that show it could be north of PDX. Quite incredible for nearly mid April regardless of where that snow ends up.

The PDX NWS AFD was a pretty decent read this afternoon:

This is quite the unusual low especially for April. The 12Z GFS shows
a broad area of Q-vector convergence encapsulating the entire CWA
starting this afternoon and persisting through Monday. This lift
coupled with abundant moisture will keep rain across the area tonight
and into tomorrow morning. Embedded within this broad area of
convergence is strong areas of frontogenesis and slantwise
convection. These coupled with the convergence and high humidities
from the subtropical moisture will provide all the necessary
ingredients for heavy bands of precip. Hi-res guidance is showing 3
accumulations of 0.4-0.6 inches over much of the terrain and across
the lowlands north of McMinnville and Woodburn.

As the low tracks onshore there will be varying wind regimes and
differing snow levels as those winds push and pull different air
masses across the area. Strong winds within a bent-back occlusion
will bring winds gusting up to 40 mph across the central Willamette
Valley and along the coast. Wind gusts between 20 to 30 mph should be
expected elsewhere. Subsidence within occlusion will bring cold
temperatures aloft down to the surface and with evaporational cooling
from high precip rates snow levels will drop between 200-500 ft
across areas north of Salem. Looking at soundings, the layer above
freezing is roughly only 50mb deep and with precip rates of 0.25" per
hour as they are in the hi-res output that would cool the column by
2.5 degrees which is enough to dip low elevation temperatures in the
early morning to below freezing. That is the major concern. The
forecast temperatures are fairly warm right now so it may not seem
like snow could be an issue but if evaporational cooling and heavy
bands of snow materialize those temperatures will drop, the ground
will cover with snow before the Sun rises and accumulate more than
expected. This could warrant upgrades and new issuance of headlines
during the overnight hours in this scenario.
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Cleaned up some of the mess from earlier. Let’s hug it out and enjoy what looks to be an epic January…er, April.

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

If anyone else wants to make fun of, dismiss, or insult those with disabilities, then go ahead and tell one of us. We'd be happy to streamline this process instead of having to wait until you say some stupid BS.

Outpost wants to talk about this hitting close to home? Well he has no idea how close it hits to home for me, and likely most others on this forum and alive on earth.

You shouldn't even have to explain it.  The things he says are just disgusting.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I'm going with 4 inches for Portland.  Yeah...I'm jealous, but they are due to kick Seattle's arse.  This setup is just textbook for that area....assuming the low track on the models is correct.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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I understand where Fred was trying to go with the unbans, and I appreciate the opportunity he gave us to lead the ship ourselves, but Outpost is not one of those people you can have under any circumstances.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm going with 4 inches for Portland.  Yeah...I'm jealous, but they are due to kick Seattle's arse.  This setup is just textbook for that area....assuming the low track on the models is correct.

Definitely a textbook mid April snow setup for our area.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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If somewhere actually gets significant accumulating snow... I have to wonder about the impact it could have on deciduous trees. A lot of trees are leafing out right now. Think someone on here (can’t remember who) talked about a dump of wet snow in May in New Mexico that resulted in damage to some trees that had already leafed out.

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm going with 4 inches for Portland.  Yeah...I'm jealous, but they are due to kick Seattle's arse.  This setup is just textbook for that area....assuming the low track on the models is correct.

I'm glad PDX is getting something decent now. @TigerWoodsLibido actually out-wintered them in December! :lol:

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I understand where Fred was trying to go with the unbans, and I appreciate the opportunity he gave us to lead the ship ourselves, but Outpost is not one of those people you can have under any circumstances.

Ditto for Link. It was unfortunate but that person was unwell. 

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6 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

If somewhere actually gets significant accumulating snow... I have to wonder about the impact it could have on deciduous trees. A lot of trees are leafing out right now. Think someone on here (can’t remember who) talked about a dump of wet snow in May in New Mexico that resulted in damage to some trees that had already leafed out.

How far along are things out there?

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19 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm glad PDX is getting something decent now. @TigerWoodsLibido actually out-wintered them in December! :lol:

I still consider that event a miracle here. 10" in onshore flow!! Lol I never thought that was possible here. Yeah, we're still anxiously awaiting the next day we spend entirely below freezing, which still has not happened since before I found this forum. Here's to hoping that changes in 22-23!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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57 minutes ago, MWG said:

I think we are in January not April 😂

image.png.f70a7d2ab374cf694ef316dbc5529a2b.png

 

April actually is superior to January in one way... lapse rates on average are much higher. Main reason why it seems easier to get big dumps of snow in the Cascades in Feb/March than in December, and why winter rules for snowfall don’t apply in spring.

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1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I’ve had my skull cut into twice and I have an RNS on my left temporal lobe, with some nodes stuck down deeper into it where my language and math are processed, and whatever is happening has caused me convulsions while I’m conscious since I was 3.

I came to peace knowing that my last moments alive might be joking around with anesthesiologists.

The stimulator works somewhat, but I still have a lot of seizures and memory problems, as well as a general extreme sadness because of my life before 2017. 

I know your story so I was very angry with him saying that stuff. Sorry for contributing to a mess earlier but I absolutely can’t stand that dude. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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48/37 today. 46 now with increasing clouds. I’m not expecting much here but also wouldn’t be surprised if we wound up with wrap around precipitation making it further north than expected overnight. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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18z Euro pretty much still locked on. Some of the snow accumulates at 35F which isn't really gonna happen of course. Most of it falls as 34F wet snow. Hopefully the 32-33F from the GFS and GRAF end up verifying instead of the slightly warmer Euro. That degree or two change will make a huge difference in snow accumulation potential obviously. 

web_ECMWF_Text_18z_HourlyData.jpg

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

I don’t know about Portland area... but it can’t be that much different. Here most trees seem to have leaves at this point, and virtually all are at least budding.

Wow, you’re much farther along than we are, then. Only a select few species in the earliest stages of leafout here, most still bare.

Though we’ll probably catch up in a hurry this week.

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