April 2022 (April 2008/2011 redux)

[FroYoBro]

Already a pretty juicy morning with some solid rain starting up. Hoping to hear some thunder today. Missed out on the action last week. 

[BLI snowman]

Still only 42 here with a nice blob of rain moving in from the south. Setting up to be a chilly one today.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

42F and rainy. 0.1" so far today. Love to see it!

[MossMan]

We had a very intense squall line move through around 7pm or so that knocked out our power, could have been the same line but I didn’t look at the radar. 

[Omegaraptor]

Hopefully we get to see some thunder here over the next couple days. It’s only 9:45 so nothing quite yet... but things could get more interesting in a few hours.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

Hopefully we get to see some thunder here over the next couple days. It’s only 9:45 so nothing quite yet... but things could get more interesting in a few hours.

Gonna need some sunbreaks.

[AlTahoe]

3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Hopefully we get to see some thunder here over the next couple days. It’s only 9:45 so nothing quite yet... but things could get more interesting in a few hours.

NWS Reno has us at a 20% chance for thundersnow on Thursday! Also 6-12" of snow at lake level which would be awesome. I can finally use the rest of the gas in my snow blower which I haven't used since Dec.

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

We had a very intense squall line move through around 7pm or so that knocked out our power, could have been the same line but I didn’t look at the radar. 

I posted a link to video earlier this morning, looks pretty wild (for up here at least)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still solid overcast in Salem, but maybe we can get some clearing in a couple hours as this little wave of showers finally pulls through. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

On 4/15/2022 at 4:32 PM, TT-SEA said:

Don't think so... not much wind here at all this week.    The cottonwoods leaves always look yellow for the first week or two and then turn green.    Of course they looked the same 10 days ago and everything just stopped progressing.

Young cottonwood leaves are coated with a brownish balsam, which is what causes this color. The balsam is also responsible for the fragrance our cottonwoods make when their leaves emerge. (Sorry, Phil, Eastern cottonwoods don’t make this fragrance; they are in different clade of the poplars that does not have this characteristic.)

[Omegaraptor]

Top 5 wettest April looking very likely for PDX at this point. #5 is 4.57” and they should be pretty close after today.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Pretty nice looking 12z Euro

[Phil]

30 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Young cottonwood leaves are coated with a brownish balsam, which is what causes this color. The balsam is also responsible for the fragrance our cottonwoods make when their leaves emerge. (Sorry, Phil, Eastern cottonwoods don’t make this fragrance; they are in different clade of the poplars that does not have this characteristic.)

Interesting, I didn’t know that. We have an eastern cottonwood, and yeah definitely no brown hue.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Pretty nice looking 12z Euro

Agreed. It is outstanding. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Top 5 wettest April looking very likely for PDX at this point. #5 is 4.57” and they should be pretty close after today.

Historically speaking the only current top 5 April at PDX that did not feature a wet May was 1955, and that month was cool and dry. The only one that had a warm may following a top 5 wet April was 1993, and it was still very wet and had an epic July.

[BLI snowman]

20 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Top 5 wettest April looking very likely for PDX at this point. #5 is 4.57” and they should be pretty close after today.

The good news is that most of the years with the really wet Aprils have had a tendency to feature wet or troughy Mays as well.

2011, 1996, 1993, 1991, 1988, 1955... let's keep it going!!

Edited April 19, 2022 by BLI snowman

[BLI snowman]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Historically speaking the only current top 5 April at PDX that did not feature a wet May was 1955, and that month was cool and dry. The only one that had a warm may following a top 5 wet April was 1993, and it was still very wet and had an epic July.

Didn't even see your post, but you read my mind!

And May 1993 was a very fun month. Warm but probably one of the most convectively dynamic months that I can think of on the westside. Probably at least 8-9 different days of warm core thunderstorms that month west of the Cascades.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Didn't even see your post, but you read my mind!

And May 1993 was a very fun month. Warm but probably one of the most convectively dynamic months that I can think of on the westside. Probably at least 8-9 different days of warm core thunderstorms that month west of the Cascades.

I remember a huge thunderstorm outbreak in early June 1993 too.

[Skagit Weather]

23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Agreed. It is outstanding. 

Significantly drier than the 00z up here with less than half the precipitation of the previous few runs.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I remember a huge thunderstorm outbreak in early June 1993 too.

Yeah, a lot of deep troughing in the sweet spot immediately offshore during that stretch before it shifted east directly over us from mid June to late July. Kind of an ideal progression IMO. Warm, wet, and convective during the juicier spring months with troughing offshore. And then cool, troughy, and occasionally wet during the peak stretch of summer.

A shame that the fall of 1993 kind of sucked because otherwise it would have been just about the perfect weather year.

[Cascadia_Wx]

12 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Significantly drier than the 00z up here with less than half the precipitation of the previous few runs.

Nice to see things shift south seems like a win win 

Although I guess even BLI is running a little dry ytd 

[TT-SEA]

27 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Significantly drier than the 00z up here with less than half the precipitation of the previous few runs.

EPS is trending that way as well.    The 12Z run is drier than normal across western WA over the next couple of weeks... and puts the mean trough position in the eastern US during the second half of the run.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

48 here after a low of 40. 0.32” so far today. Had a rain shower move through a bit ago but not much excitement today. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

48 here after a low of 40. 0.32” so far today. Had a rain shower move through a bit ago but not much excitement today. 

Another little shower moving in here now... but it has been fairly dry during the day so far with plenty of sun breaks.

[TacomaWaWx]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Another little shower moving in here now... but it has been fairly dry during the day so far with plenty of sun breaks.

Wasn’t expecting much here today anyways. We’ve already had 1/3” of rain today so not really a big deal if we don’t see much this afternoon. 

[TacomaWaWx]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

EPS is trending that way as well.    The 12Z run is drier than normal across western WA over the next couple of weeks... and puts the mean trough position in the eastern US during the second half of the run.

 

Probably due for some ridging has been pretty troughy lately. Wet cool april analogs are apparently not in your favor though tim  

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Probably due for some ridging has been pretty troughy lately. Wet cool april analogs are apparently not in your favor though tim  

I guess not.   But analogs aren't usually the best indicator of what is coming.   Nature always seems to veer in different directions.    We will see.

Interestingly... SEA has been running drier than normal this month.  

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Probably due for some ridging has been pretty troughy lately. Wet cool april analogs are apparently not in your favor though tim  

I’d expect some kind of warm-up later this month and/or early May with the MJO crossing the IPWP again. But it’s a fleeting signal so might not happen.

I’m more interested in what happens later in May. IMO, there is an increasing likelihood of a substantial cold shot into the West around that timeframe. Still way far out in advance, but I’m watching it closely.

[Deweydog]

14 years ago RIGHT NOW.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

36 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’d expect some kind of warm-up later this month and/or early May with the MJO crossing the IPWP again. But it’s a fleeting signal so might not happen.

I’m more interested in what happens later in May. IMO, there is an increasing likelihood of a substantial cold shot into the West around that timeframe. Still way far out in advance, but I’m watching it closely.

I know exactly when it will happen: Victoria Day weekend (a week before Memorial Day weekend). I will be camping that weekend.

[FroYoBro]

Up to a blistering 47 degrees here with clouds and rain all day. Not great for t-storms.

Edited April 19, 2022 by FroYoBro

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Didn't even see your post, but you read my mind!

And May 1993 was a very fun month. Warm but probably one of the most convectively dynamic months that I can think of on the westside. Probably at least 8-9 different days of warm core thunderstorms that month west of the Cascades.

please

[The Blob]

Chance of thunder tomorrow

[TacomaWaWx]

Shower activity has been pretty minimal so far even with some sunbreaks here. 52 currently. 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I guess not.   But analogs aren't usually the best indicator of what is coming.   Nature always seems to veer in different directions.    We will see.

Interestingly... SEA has been running drier than normal this month.  

Definitely true. I think next month will end up being pretty normal. Average precipitation and temps. Maybe a 1-2 day heatwave in the low 80s mid month no big deal like this month. 

[Meatyorologist]

Sept 2013 was the last great thunderstorm month in Seattle. 2015 also had a few gems, but not nearly as concentrated.

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I know exactly when it will happen: Victoria Day weekend (a week before Memorial Day weekend). I will be camping that weekend.

Sounds about right.  I'll be getting my son home from Montana that week before Victoria Day weekend, and the first thing he wants to do as a freshly minted college graduate it string his hammock up somewhere at Larrabee or Teddy Bear Cove, and spend the day soaking in the salt air and decompressing.  I warned him it will probably cold wet and stormy

[Meatyorologist]

Hoping this cell makes it here. It’s growing increasingly bubbly overhead.

[Omegaraptor]

I don’t know what’s coming up right now but it’s making me sniffle.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

40 degrees with 0.67" of rain today.