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April 2022 (April 2008/2011 redux)


TacomaWaWx

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

I plan to celebrate accordingly.

Buddy of mine swears by Mountain Home. You?

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

Eugene windspeed just went up to sustained 20s.

KEUG on 1/27/2023 after spending a week between -12 and 18

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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10 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Rain. Looks like we maxed out at 51 today so 51/37 day…another chilly one. Down to 47 with 0.06” so far today. 

No rain here yet today and likely won't be much more than sprinkles... easterly flow is in charge out here.     Currently 54 in North Bend.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No rain here yet today and likely won't be much more than sprinkles... easterly flow is in charge out here.     Currently 54 in North Bend.

Basically a mid January day here. Great for the mountains but I’ll be ready for may and June soon enough. Hoping for decent amounts of warm rain and sunshine weather variety the next couple months. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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48 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Buddy of mine swears by Mountain Home. You?

ACDC for me. I need the zen more than the happy. 

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16 minutes ago, Phil said:

18z GFS looks wet at Tim’s house. 

Are you bored?   That is how you analyze a run from 3,000 miles away?  😀

Technically its not that wet either... actually drier than normal for the next 10 days.   Who cares what it shows after that... that is just throwing darts.

 

gfs-deterministic-nw-qpf_anom_10day-1341600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Sunbreaks now. 51F and very rainy. Somewhere in the Willamette Valley is gonna have a fun few hours at this rate.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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FWIW... the 18Z ECMWF shows what looks like a convective band of precip lifting north through western OR overnight.   This loop starts at 8 p.m. and goes through 11 a.m. tomorrow.

ecmwf-deterministic-oregon-precip_1hr_inch-1650477600-1650510000-1650564000-20.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Mean temp 2/3rds through this month is currently 44.8 degrees. Pretty chilly compared to March this year at 47.0. Could potentially end April a little colder or close to it…will be a close call. 
 As for precip 2.61” as of today. Euro shows over 2” of rain to finish out the month…with 1.2” of that falling in the next 7 days. Should end up wetter than March with 2.98”. Pretty good chance we will be above average this month.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the 18Z ECMWF shows what looks like a convective band of precip lifting north through western OR overnight.   This loop starts at 8 p.m. and goes through 11 a.m. tomorrow.

ecmwf-deterministic-oregon-precip_1hr_inch-1650477600-1650510000-1650564000-20.gif

Things are completely capped overnight though (even now for the most part). If that piece of energy moved in a few hours earlier it would have been game on.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Are you bored?   That is how you analyze a run from 3,000 miles away?  😀

Technically its not that wet either... actually drier than normal for the next 10 days.   Who cares what it shows after that... that is just throwing darts.

image.gif

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11 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

My grandmothers shanty would have been blown off The res with this one

How much did you smoke this evening 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Impressive how much colder ENSO is vs 2021 at this time. Also note the southwestward consolidation of the IPWP into the E-IO/SW-Pacific. This regime plans on staying for the long term.

FBBAF299-8232-4ADB-BF1D-B5116E1E8706.gif

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Good news for Tim: every 3+ year Niña event since (at least) WWII was followed by a multiyear +ENSO event.

I’m sure the long overdue “dud” winter will occur then.

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3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Has anyone checked on the North Atlantic current??

Lol. If you mean the Gulf Stream, it’s currently on 🔥.

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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Good news for Tim: every 3+ year Niña event since (at least) WWII was followed by a multiyear +ENSO event.

I’m sure the long overdue “dud” winter will occur then.

1998-01 was followed by a neutral year first though. And 2001-02 basically acted like a Nina prior to the switch to +ENSO that summer.

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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

1998-01 was followed by a neutral year first though. And 2001-02 basically acted like a Nina prior to the switch to +ENSO that summer.

Good point, for all intents and purposes that was a 4yr event.

Same goes for 1956/57 (as the 3rd year of -ENSO) not meeting Niña criteria but essentially behaving like one.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Good point, for all intents and purposes that was a 4yr event.

Same goes for 1956/57 (as the 3rd year of -ENSO) not meeting Niña criteria but essentially behaving like one.

Theoretically, what is the maximum amount of consecutive years that could qualify for a La Niña event? 4? 5 even?

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Theoretically, what is the maximum amount of consecutive years that could qualify for a La Niña event? 4? 5 even?

The 1906-11 period appeared to be a semi-continuous Nina stretch, with a brief negative neutral reprieve in 1907-08. But the North Pacific anomalies weren't coupled as intensely with the equatorial anomalies and that stretch featured some lengthy +PDO. Still had some bonkers winter weather for our region though in 4/5 years.

And Phil mentioned it I believe, but I consider the 1889-95 period to be the greatest -ENSO stretch we have observed in the era of SST records.

It did feature a reprieve from true Nina anomalies through much of 1891, so technically 1890-91 and 1891-92 were both neutral winters. But the 1892-95 stretch was continuous Nina and the 1889-90 Nina was so massive that it seemed to at least moderately impact the following winter's patterns as well, with a near constant deep -PDO signature for most of that 6 year stretch.

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No measurable rain today... that should end a 12-day streak with rain in North Bend.    Should be a some measurable rain tomorrow morning... but tomorrow afternoon looks decent.    So does Friday-Sunday on the 00Z GFS.     I mentioned last week that the pattern this week would be quite dry out here which usually happens when the focus is on NoCal and OR.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No measurable rain today... that should end a 12-day streak with rain in North Bend.    Should be a some measurable rain tomorrow morning... but tomorrow afternoon looks decent.    So does Friday-Sunday on the 00Z GFS.     I mentioned last week that the pattern this week would be quite dry out here which usually happens when the focus is on NoCal and OR.

image.gif.afdaee630d1a582e9a79594484a140de.gif

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

Good news for Tim: every 3+ year Niña event since (at least) WWII was followed by a multiyear +ENSO event.

I’m sure the long overdue “dud” winter will occur then.

I'm betting next winter is a very good one and then a mega dud for 23/24.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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