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April 2022 (April 2008/2011 redux)


TacomaWaWx

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+1.7°F on the day at KSEA w/ a 67/42 spread. The first warmer than normal day since the 7th when they reached 73°F. We return to cooler than average weather tomorrow and will stay there for a few days at least, potentially for a while longer than that.

Nice to finally have a Niña that behaves like normal, where the mean regresses to below normal.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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2 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Hilarious that there was a drought argument earlier. I guess Cliff really does read this forum.

 

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2022/04/is-large-portion-of-washington-state-in.html

Almost like TIM wrote it himself 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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9 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Almost like TIM wrote it himself 

Just common sense.   Its silly to talk about central and eastern WA being in such a bad situation.    Its not... by any metric.   But it makes for good drama on here from Phil and others.     WA state is doing just fine.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just common sense.   Its silly to talk about central and eastern WA being in such a bad situation.    Its not... by any metric.   But it makes for good drama on here from Phil and others.     WA state is doing just fine.   

I'd even dare to say South/Eastern Oregon is doing better than what the drought monitor gives. That built up snowpack is gonna pay huge dividends. 

If this April didn't play out the way it it, I'd be screaming from the rooftops that this fire season was gonna be incredibly bad.

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just common sense.   Its silly to talk about central and eastern WA being in such a bad situation.    Its not... by any metric.   But it makes for good drama on here from Phil and others.     WA state is doing just fine.   

Yeah I understand, I was just messing with you a bit. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

+1.7°F on the day at KSEA w/ a 67/42 spread. The first warmer than normal day since the 7th when they reached 73°F. We return to cooler than average weather tomorrow and will stay there for a few days at least, potentially for a while longer than that.

Nice to finally have a Niña that behaves like normal, where the mean regresses to below normal.

Really does feel old school. Have had plenty of NW flow out here too under the -NAO, and no humidity to speak of. Reminds me of the springs when I was in elementary school during the 1999-2001 La Niña (I have a photographic memory when it comes to observed weather, lol).  

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16 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Looking forward to many more days like today! 
67/39 on the day. Currently 53. 

948BF219-700D-47FC-A562-7A85CF4C0173.jpeg

Beautiful photo.

Only thing that’d make it better are snow and sideways icicles.

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19 minutes ago, Phil said:

Really does feel old school. Have had plenty of NW flow out here too under the -NAO, and no humidity to speak of. Reminds me of the springs when I was in elementary school during the 1999-2001 La Niña (I have a photographic memory when it comes to observed weather, lol).  

I remember the blustery, active winters of 06-07, 07-08, and 08-09 well. Lots of windstorms, leaves blowing around, cold weather. Even some ornery convergence zones.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Beautiful photo.

Only thing that’d make it better are snow and sideways icicles.

My snow shovel was still leaning against the house on the deck, does that count? 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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50 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Looking forward to many more days like today! 
67/39 on the day. Currently 53. 

948BF219-700D-47FC-A562-7A85CF4C0173.jpeg

Wow, I'm embarrassed to admit I didn't realize it got so warm out today.  I was inside trying to finish doing some upgrades to my 3D printer.  We had the windows open, so I at least got some fresh air.  Looks like we hit 68 up here.

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Just common sense.   Its silly to talk about central and eastern WA being in such a bad situation.    Its not... by any metric.   But it makes for good drama on here from Phil and others.     WA state is doing just fine.   

He does highlight a good point in that basing a drought monitor solely on precipitation departures, even based on percentages of normal, is a terrible idea, particularly so in desert regions.

It results in deserts being burdened with massive, inordinate anomalies in either direction, despite wet season precip and soil moisture anomalies staying within reasonable, common limits of normal. Out near Yakima and the lower basin very few years would qualify for a genuine 'drought' year, where rainfall and snowfall are actually worryingly low. But even then the native sagebrush is well equipped to handle such drought. To cause serious lasting ecological damage it would take a biblical, never before seen drought of the ages here, alongside vastly increased temperatures so as to nuke both snowpack and soil moisture. Something like 2015 on steroids, for 3-5 years on end.

An actual threat is wildfire damage and the influx of European drygrass choking out shrub-steppe ecosystems. Even during the wettest years, wildfires are still a major concern during the vast majority of the year, and drygrass would probably spread at even faster rates.

As global warming progresses and accelerates, we stand to see an ever increasing chance of such biblical droughts toward the end of the century. But by then we will have already probably seen much more visible damage west of the Cascade crest. Until then things are relatively fine Portland north.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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15 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

He does highlight a good point in that basing a drought monitor solely on precipitation departures, even based on percentages of normal, is a terrible idea, particularly so in desert regions.

It results in deserts being burdened with massive, inordinate anomalies in either direction, despite wet season precip and soil moisture anomalies staying within reasonable, common limits of normal. Out near Yakima and the lower basin very few years would qualify for a genuine 'drought' year, where rainfall and snowfall are actually worryingly low. But even then the native sagebrush is well equipped to handle such drought. To cause serious lasting ecological damage it would take a biblical, never before seen drought of the ages here, alongside vastly increased temperatures so as to nuke both snowpack and soil moisture. Something like 2015 on steroids, for 3-5 years on end.

An actual threat is wildfire damage and the influx of European drygrass choking out shrub-steppe ecosystems. Even during the wettest years, wildfires are still a major concern during the vast majority of the year, and drygrass would probably spread at even faster rates.

As global warming progresses and accelerates, we stand to see an ever increasing chance of such biblical droughts toward the end of the century. But by then we will have already probably seen much more visible damage west of the Cascade crest. Until then things are relatively fine Portland north.

Great analysis. 

Yakima is just 1 inch below normal since last October... they have received 5 inches instead of the usual 6 inches.   And summer is always dry and hot there.     But regardless of that small precip deficit... the Yakima River is roaring at 154% of normal in Yakima thanks to above normal snowpack in the Cascades.   That is much more meaningful to their water situation than getting another inch of rain.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Great analysis. 

Yakima is just 1 inch below normal since last October... they have received 5 inches instead of the usual 6 inches.   And summer is always dry and hot there.     But regardless of that small precip deficit... the Yakima River is roaring at 154% of normal in Yakima thanks to above normal snowpack in the Cascades.   That is much more meaningful to their water situation than getting another inch of rain.    

Snowpack is a big deal over here. If the snowpack cooperates, everything will be fine. Much of The Columbia Basin is irrigated anyway, so it will be all right.

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Really does feel old school. Have had plenty of NW flow out here too under the -NAO, and no humidity to speak of. Reminds me of the springs when I was in elementary school during the 1999-2001 La Niña (I have a photographic memory when it comes to observed weather, lol).  

It's been vaguely similar to 2008 or 2011, but then again springs can be rather sketchy out this way. You can never count on consistent warmth until July in most years.

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24 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

He does highlight a good point in that basing a drought monitor solely on precipitation departures, even based on percentages of normal, is a terrible idea, particularly so in desert regions.

It results in deserts being burdened with massive, inordinate anomalies in either direction, despite wet season precip and soil moisture anomalies staying within reasonable, common limits of normal. Out near Yakima and the lower basin very few years would qualify for a genuine 'drought' year, where rainfall and snowfall are actually worryingly low. But even then the native sagebrush is well equipped to handle such drought. To cause serious lasting ecological damage it would take a biblical, never before seen drought of the ages here, alongside vastly increased temperatures so as to nuke both snowpack and soil moisture. Something like 2015 on steroids, for 3-5 years on end.

An actual threat is wildfire damage and the influx of European drygrass choking out shrub-steppe ecosystems. Even during the wettest years, wildfires are still a major concern during the vast majority of the year, and drygrass would probably spread at even faster rates.

As global warming progresses and accelerates, we stand to see an ever increasing chance of such biblical droughts toward the end of the century. But by then we will have already probably seen much more visible damage west of the Cascade crest. Until then things are relatively fine Portland north.

I agree completely with this. I know last year the dry spring was quite bad for some of the non irrigated agriculture over there, but this year they have not had that problem. This wetter/cooler spring has definitely helped things though, even if just bumping up the Yakima basin snow depth which was pretty pitiful in March (many places were melting out months early which is one of the reasons why the reservoirs were so full so early).

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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7 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

3BBDD5A8-676B-49AD-8D8F-7811B57A6EB0.jpeg

14A6AB22-318F-4D06-82CE-EC60B563A973.png

Actually getting some light convective activity overhead in advance of the incoming front. Not going to get a lightning outbreak out of this, but the fact that these are showing up even during the most dull transitional setups shows that the warm season is nearly here.

Good observation.

6z GFS in 1 hour 31 minutes

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4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Good observation.

6z GFS in 1 hour 31 minutes

night shift? in late april, with nothing too interesting on the horizon?

i'm here for it!

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Friday night's system looks like a widespread soaking. 

gfs_apcpn24_nwus_18.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Chilly trough for early May.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_28.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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GFS slowly backing off from its cutoff madness. Not quite there yet but at least it’s less egregious now.

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5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z GFS looking stellar 

At least it waited until D9 to have its panic attack. Progress!

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Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z GFS ensembles. The ridgy spell the first week of May comes with a nice crash afterward which is always fun 

C7B4C845-2D77-470A-B6A1-E38DD67DB6FB.png

It doesn't look particularly cold. Spring is up and down. I remember it snowing in Spokane during Bloomsday 1984. This year should be rather seasonable with highs near 60. I don't think any of the runners will complain. A cooler day is preferable to a warmer day.

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31 minutes ago, snow drift said:

It doesn't look particularly cold. Spring is up and down. I remember it snowing in Spokane during Bloomsday 1984. This year should be rather seasonable with highs near 60. I don't think any of the runners will complain. A cooler day is preferable to a warmer day.

It's late April. "A bit cooler than average" with NW flow is very pleasant, at least around here. Glad that we're taking advantage of ULL season.

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Just now, Omegaraptor said:

It's late April. "A bit cooler than average" with NW flow is very pleasant, at least around here. Glad that we're taking advantage of ULL season.

I'm just glad it doesn't feel like summer already. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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