April 2022 (April 2008/2011 redux)

[Phil]

GFS is trying hard for another trapped ULL solution.

I could fine tune those model physics in a month. Only half joking...just hand over the keys. No charge.

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

GFS is trying hard for another trapped ULL solution.

I could fine tune those model physics in a month. Only half joking...just hand over the keys. No charge.

A cut-off low into CA would be pretty nice right now.     You could at least pretend you want something that would obviously be way more beneficial than just sending it all to western WA where its gone for most of the last 8 months.   

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A cut-off low into CA would be pretty nice right now.     You could at least pretend you want something that would obviously be way more beneficial than just sending it all to western WA where its gone for most of the last 8 months.   

Jokes aside, I don’t have a personal preference since I don’t live there. But these ridiculous to borderline non-physical GFS solutions do irritate the hell out of me. It’s embarrassing how far behind our numerical modeling has fallen. The ECMWF way back in 2010 had higher D5 z500 skill scores than today’s GFS.  

The CFSv2 is literally useless (sorry Andrew) yet we run that behemoth 4x per day. Stupid.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Jokes aside, I don’t have a personal preference since I don’t live there. But these ridiculous to borderline non-physical GFS solutions do irritate the hell out of me. It’s embarrassing how far behind our numerical modeling has fallen. The ECMWF in 2010 had higher D5 z500 skill scores than the 2022 GFS.  

The CFSv2 is literally useless and we still run that behemoth 4x per day. Stupid.

Not that our preferences matter... but you do lecture us on ecological issues all the time and I assure you it would be way more beneficial in CA right now.   We are all likely going to be breathing CA wildfire smoke this summer no matter how much rain falls on western WA.   Unfortunately you are almost certainly right about the GFS and I understand your point.

[Phil]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Not that our preferences matter... but you do lecture us on ecological issues all the time and I assure you it would be way more beneficial in CA right now.   We are all likely going to be breathing CA wildfire smoke this summer no matter how much rain falls on western WA.   Unfortunately you are almost certainly right about the GFS and I understand your point.

Some of that is performative on my part, I admit. I generally don’t enjoy the warm season, and this place is kind of therapeutic for me on that front (though my concern over the prospect of prolonged western drought is real).

But my disgust with the GFS isn’t performative. That is *very* real, haha. I’d be saying the same thing if it were going off on the opposite tangent. I know we can do better.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 00Z GEM looks sort of like the 00Z GFS for next week.     Probably not meaningful either.

[snow_wizard]

No doubt this is going down as a most impressive cold April.  SEA put up another max temp 10 degrees below normal today and it's already down to 41 here under clear skies this evening.

[MossMan]

A warm cozy house on this cold winter night! 

[Phil]

37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

FWIW... the 00Z GEM looks sort of like the 00Z GFS for next week.     Probably not meaningful either.

The GEM doesn’t cut off the trough, though.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

We finally did it - we finally got a new house!! We had to pretty much sacrifice our first born child in order to get it but still, we got it! 4 bed/3 bath, 2200 sq ft for roughly $400k. Best elementary school in the city is literally right down the street around the corner. It's also open to corn fields in the back so you best believe I'm going to grab an IP camera and put it up for time lapse videos like @Jginmartini (love your videos dude!) as we don't really have anything blocking our view besides a farm house.

Redfin recently notified me of a house that sold a few doors down from our old house in Maple Valley. 3 bed/2 bath, 1300 sq ft. Listed for $625k and sold for $730k. Freaking insane! So glad we made the jump over here and are able to get a house almost twice the size for only $10k more than we spent on our old home. 

Should be moving in by the end of May/early June. We are so excited!!

Congrats man!

I know that is not your photo... but I find it interesting that they painted in a sunset when you can see the pic was taken in the middle of the day based on the shadows.    

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

We finally did it - we finally got a new house!! We had to pretty much sacrifice our first born child in order to get it but still, we got it! 4 bed/3 bath, 2200 sq ft for roughly $400k. Best elementary school in the city is literally right down the street around the corner. It's also open to corn fields in the back so you best believe I'm going to grab an IP camera and put it up for time lapse videos like @Jginmartini (love your videos dude!) as we don't really have anything blocking our view besides a farm house.

Redfin recently notified me of a house that sold a few doors down from our old house in Maple Valley. 3 bed/2 bath, 1300 sq ft. Listed for $625k and sold for $730k. Freaking insane! So glad we made the jump over here and are able to get a house almost twice the size for only $10k more than we spent on our old home. 

Should be moving in by the end of May/early June. We are so excited!!

Congrats!! Now I want to see pics of that house under feet of snow!!

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

We finally did it - we finally got a new house!! We had to pretty much sacrifice our first born child in order to get it but still, we got it! 4 bed/3 bath, 2200 sq ft for roughly $400k. Best elementary school in the city is literally right down the street around the corner. It's also open to corn fields in the back so you best believe I'm going to grab an IP camera and put it up for time lapse videos like @Jginmartini (love your videos dude!) as we don't really have anything blocking our view besides a farm house.

Redfin recently notified me of a house that sold a few doors down from our old house in Maple Valley. 3 bed/2 bath, 1300 sq ft. Listed for $625k and sold for $730k. Freaking insane! So glad we made the jump over here and are able to get a house almost twice the size for only $10k more than we spent on our old home. 

Should be moving in by the end of May/early June. We are so excited!!

Congrats man! Looks like a nice place. And relatively new as well?

Plant a few trees on that lot when you move in, though. Looks like some kind of desert.  

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Congrats man!

I know that is not your photo... but I find it interesting that they painted in a sunset when you can see the pic was taken in the middle of the day based on the shadows.    

Looks like 2 photos combined. Wanted the sunset pic but it was probably too dark.

[Blizzard777]

14 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

We finally did it - we finally got a new house!! We had to pretty much sacrifice our first born child in order to get it but still, we got it! 4 bed/3 bath, 2200 sq ft for roughly $400k. Best elementary school in the city is literally right down the street around the corner. It's also open to corn fields in the back so you best believe I'm going to grab an IP camera and put it up for time lapse videos like @Jginmartini (love your videos dude!) as we don't really have anything blocking our view besides a farm house.

Redfin recently notified me of a house that sold a few doors down from our old house in Maple Valley. 3 bed/2 bath, 1300 sq ft. Listed for $625k and sold for $730k. Freaking insane! So glad we made the jump over here and are able to get a house almost twice the size for only $10k more than we spent on our old home. 

Should be moving in by the end of May/early June. We are so excited!!

Congratulations and excited for you and your family!!! Your storm videos will rule and can’t wait to see the show from your area!  

Looks like I missed and active day yesterday in my neighborhood but I’m out playing…again. 
Sunrise in Moab

[T-Town]

57 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Congratulations and excited for you and your family!!! Your storm videos will rule and can’t wait to see the show from your area!  

Looks like I missed and active day yesterday in my neighborhood but I’m out playing…again. 
Sunrise in Moab

Moab is amazing. It’s been 20 years since we were last there. Definitely a place I want to get back to. 

[T-Town]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

We finally did it - we finally got a new house!! We had to pretty much sacrifice our first born child in order to get it but still, we got it! 4 bed/3 bath, 2200 sq ft for roughly $400k. Best elementary school in the city is literally right down the street around the corner. It's also open to corn fields in the back so you best believe I'm going to grab an IP camera and put it up for time lapse videos like @Jginmartini (love your videos dude!) as we don't really have anything blocking our view besides a farm house.

Redfin recently notified me of a house that sold a few doors down from our old house in Maple Valley. 3 bed/2 bath, 1300 sq ft. Listed for $625k and sold for $730k. Freaking insane! So glad we made the jump over here and are able to get a house almost twice the size for only $10k more than we spent on our old home. 

Should be moving in by the end of May/early June. We are so excited!!

Zillow shows our MV house we sold for $469K in 2017 as being worth $973K today. It’s 2800 sf on a 4800 sf lot. The back slider stares into the neighbors back slider. I would never believe that someone would pay $1M for that place but your story about the 1300 sf place makes me wonder. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

23 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Zillow shows our MV house we sold for $469K in 2017 as being worth $973K today. It’s 2800 sf on a 4800 sf lot. The back slider stares into the neighbors back slider. I would never believe that someone would pay $1M for that place but your story about the 1300 sf place makes me wonder. 

Geez... My house has tripled in value since I bought it in 2011, still a lot cheaper than your area. 

[Phil]

In addition to another trade burst, the EPS projects westerlies across the IO, which should promote the development of a -IOD &/or warming in the E-IO.

Would help maintain the strong Walker Cell and further enhance what is already an impressive La Niña regime.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

In addition to another trade burst, the EPS projects westerlies across the IO, which should promote the development of a -IOD &/or warming in the E-IO.

Would help maintain the strong Walker Cell and further enhance what is already an impressive La Niña regime.

I noticed one of the ENSO regions was down to a -1.9C anomaly this week. CFSv2 shows ENSO in the 3.4 region dropping to around -1.5C before rebounding to around where we are at now by fall. Probably a weak Nina in the cards for us. 

[Meatyorologist]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I noticed one of the ENSO regions was down to a -1.9C anomaly this week. CFSv2 shows ENSO in the 3.4 region dropping to around -1.5C before rebounding to around where we are at now by fall. Probably a weak Nina in the cards for us. 

One has to wonder if the global models like the CFS are several steps behind the ENSO trajectory. Thus far they have been behind all Spring. There’s a very notable seasonal barrier around this time of year and this is a great example.

[Meatyorologist]

Nice sky to greet me out of class

[TacomaWaWx]

Low of 38 this morning…first time we’ve gotten into the 30s in a week. 

[TacomaWaWx]

11 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt this is going down as a most impressive cold April.  SEA put up another max temp 10 degrees below normal today and it's already down to 41 here under clear skies this evening.

Won’t be the coldest here…will probably be slightly warmer than 2008 and 2011 but still a pretty decent negative departure. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Current monthly temp is 46.2. Will probably finish 2.5-3.0 degrees below normal. 2011 finished 45.2 degrees here. 

[The Blob]

Got the blueberries planted finally 

[Meatyorologist]

8 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Current monthly temp is 46.2. Will probably finish 2.5-3.0 degrees below normal. 2011 finished 45.2 degrees here. 

2011 was more consistently chilly but didn’t nearly have the magnitude that this mid-month cold snap had. Have to go back to the 70s and prior to find April airmasses like that one. This April was like 2008 but more impressive.

Unbelieveably during that stretch from the late 40s to the early 70s, April airmasses like these were a 1-10 year occurrence. Def a cold time for the PNW.

[Meatyorologist]

Even this month’s “warm spells” have only managed to put one above average day a piece. Every other day this month has and will end up below average. May ain’t starting out particularly warm either. Feb 2019 is the most recent comparison.

[TacomaWaWx]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

2011 was more consistently chilly but didn’t nearly have the magnitude that this mid-month cold snap had. Have to go back to the 70s and prior to find April airmasses like that one. This April was like 2008 but more impressive.

Unbelieveably during that stretch from the late 40s to the early 70s, April airmasses like these were a 1-10 year occurrence. Def a cold time for the PNW.

Oh yeah, the period of cold mid April was more impressive than what we saw in 2008 or 2011…atleast at this location. Those months were just more consistently chilly throughout. It’s still going to end up pretty impressive month here. 

[snow drift]

3 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

We finally did it - we finally got a new house!! We had to pretty much sacrifice our first born child in order to get it but still, we got it! 4 bed/3 bath, 2200 sq ft for roughly $400k. Best elementary school in the city is literally right down the street around the corner. It's also open to corn fields in the back so you best believe I'm going to grab an IP camera and put it up for time lapse videos like @Jginmartini (love your videos dude!) as we don't really have anything blocking our view besides a farm house.

Redfin recently notified me of a house that sold a few doors down from our old house in Maple Valley. 3 bed/2 bath, 1300 sq ft. Listed for $625k and sold for $730k. Freaking insane! So glad we made the jump over here and are able to get a house almost twice the size for only $10k more than we spent on our old home. 

Should be moving in by the end of May/early June. We are so excited!!

Congrats!

[MossMan]

Dribbles. 

[snow drift]

22 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Oh yeah, the period of cold mid April was more impressive than what we saw in 2008 or 2011…atleast at this location. Those months were just more consistently chilly throughout. It’s still going to end up pretty impressive month here. 

The mean in 2011 was 41.5 at Spokane. We are running at 41.7 through yesterday. 2008 ended up at 42. We'll likely be in the neighborhood. I'm pretty sure Spokane Valley was warmer. I'm going to look at Spokane Valley's records.

[snow drift]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Dribbles. 

From the sky or the dogs?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow drift said:

The mean in 2011 was 41.5 at Spokane. We are running at 41.7 through yesterday. 2008 ended up at 42. We'll likely be in the neighborhood. I'm pretty sure Spokane Valley was warmer. I'm going to look at Spokane Valley's records.

Impressive. 

[TT-SEA]

The trees have really filled out here in the last week.     The forest canopy is all green and everything is looking full and lush now... which is pretty typical for late April.    I had some FB memories pop up from 2011 and we are way ahead of that year... probably thanks to some warmer spikes.  

[snow drift]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The trees have really filled out here in the last week.     The forest canopy is all green and everything is looking full and lush now... which is pretty typical for late April.    I had some FB memories pop up from 2011 and we are way ahead of that year... probably thanks to some warmer spikes.  

It's gotten better here. We still have a few that are holding out. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like our monthly mean is 41.9 as of today. The park was 39.9 in 2011, the park station is heavily shaded and runs a little cooler than us, but I doubt they are running colder than 2011. Looks like 2008 was 40.3. Looks like 1975 was 41.5, my guess is the park ends up around 41.0 this month. 

Looking at the PRISM data back to 1892 here are the top 5 cold April's here. Will be interesting to see where this year comes in. 

1) 2008

2) 2011

3) 1955

4) 1975

5) 1967

 

Top 5 warm April's

1) 1926

2) 1934

3) 1906

4) 1989

5) 1990, 1939, 1915

Edited April 27, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Phishy Wx]

KGEG flirting with Coldest April on record according to local news last night.  not sure specifics.  need to look into it

[Phishy Wx]

25 minutes ago, snow drift said:

It's gotten better here. We still have a few that are holding out. 

seems like most everything popped in the last 4-5 days ish.  I still have 3 trees barely budding.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the ECMWF has trended significantly drier and warmer for next Tuesday and Wednesday.    There is huge difference between the 12Z ECMWF run yesterday and the new 12Z run today for those days.    The GFS and ECMWF are sort of in the process of compromising now.    The GFS has clearly been too aggressive with the cut off solution but the ECMWF might have been too aggressive with the troughing.      

[Phishy Wx]

looks like potentially first 70s of the season later next week here