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April 2022 (April 2008/2011 redux)


TacomaWaWx

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Under a Winter Weather Advisory here for 4-10" of snowfall tonight into tomorrow morning. Currently raining heavily and 35 degrees.

In case anyone was keeping track, our grass is finally showing signs of life again and the daffodils have emerged from the ground! Everything seems to be running a couple of weeks behind schedule.

And the moisture gift keeps giving!

Screen Shot 2022-04-28 at 9.51.16 PM.png

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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On 4/28/2022 at 11:31 AM, Phil said:

Odds are definitely increased under Niña/+QBO. Vast majority of the big dogs were such.

Just want to avoid a super niña. Other complications can arise if it gets too strong. But even that didn’t stop years like 1949/50.

If we get a SUPER NINA, we should just call it THE BIG GIRL

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More showers moving through this evening. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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00z gfs is fantastic!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

00z gfs is fantastic!

All these dynamic model runs and nobody’s talking about it.

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If we have a decent nina and +QBO plus some slight amount of volcanic influence then this could be the most memorable winter of our lifetimes.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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image.png

This is pretty close to a nice convective outbreak. Warm/moist nose around ~800mb just asking to convect under a better upper level environment. Often the GFS misses out on just how unstable these setups can be, misinterpreting midlevel convection to a good degree. Would be something to get one with sfc temps in the upper 40s! In the summer when evenings are still in the 70s or so, it can be quite pleasant to watch cells roll in from the Cascades in the backyard... Not so when it's the average high temp for December 10th ;)

Will need that whole trough to dig out further like in previous runs if we want a decent amount of instability though. In particular, we need lapse rates above 500mb to steepen. But given the GFS' bias to dig out big, dynamic troughs, in all likelihood this very minimal convective threat will be snuffed out in future runs as is. Just a thought though.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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image.png

-ENSO regime slicing through the 2012-2021 "table" like a hot knife through butter; the same "table" supporting the massive summer climate chance in the last decade. With this regime continuing into the indefinite beyond on all global scale models, this gives cadence to the notion that we may approach some vague sense of "normalcy" this upcoming summer, in ways we haven't seen in over a decade. Won't trust that gut feeling until I see it... Though I will say, troughing has seemed easier to achieve lately, in ways I haven't seen since the -PDO dip around 2006-2012. I don't know. Maybe I'm making no sense and we'll torch harder than ever. Tough to say. I'll believe any promises of colder summer weather when I see it...

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Interestingly... its been really cold in the Midwest this month as well.   Usually when we have a cold month out here the offset is warmth in the middle of the country.    Back in 2012... summer basically started there in March.   The trees were all leafed out by the beginning of April and that was the one year when they were actually ahead of us which is really unusual.   

I was checking out web cams in the Twin Cities this morning and everything is still basically dormant with May arriving on Sunday.    That is crazy late there.  

 

msp2.png

msp1.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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39 and cloudy. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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On 4/28/2022 at 7:07 AM, T-Town said:

Great shots. I recognize delicate arch for sure. Is that landscape arch?  I remember the rock formation in the third photo but forget the name. 
 

On our last trip to arches my employer was going through a round of layoffs. I remember waiting for a call from my boss to find out if I still had a job. Surprisingly good cell reception in the park. And, I kept my job…

Pine tree arch and lol, what a way to remeber your time in Arches….”the phone call!”.  

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

5F94FF23-8819-4855-9B2F-0E9AE9821E52.jpeg

Hopefully we can at least manage some more dry days.     

SEA is going to end up with 20 days with precip this month... normal is 14 days for April.    We are going to finish with 22 days out here.   

May averages 11 days with precip at SEA.     Even normal would be a win in my book.   😁

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Hopefully we can at least manage some more dry days.     

SEA is going to end up with 20 days with precip this month... normal is 14 days for April.    We are going to finish with 22 days out here.   

May averages 11 days with precip at SEA.     Even normal would be a win in my book.   😁

Tuesday-Wednesday look nice. I’m going camping those days. Might get close to 70 on Wednesday possibly. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Interestingly... its been really cold in the Midwest this month as well.   Usually when we have a cold month out here the offset is warmth in the middle of the country.    Back in 2012... summer basically started there in March.   The trees were all leafed out by the beginning of April and that was the one year when they were actually ahead of us which is really unusual.   

I was checking out web cams in the Twin Cities this morning and everything is still basically dormant with May arriving on Sunday.    That is crazy late there.  

 

msp2.png

msp1.png

March 2012 was historic across the US including here. A very rare pattern with little precedent. I remember many days in the mid/upper 80s with some trees fully leafed out by April 1st, which has never happened before.

2022 has been more old school. Lots of -NAO/Baffin Ridge. Most of the recent cold springs in the Midwest had +NAOs. Which sets 2022 apart from anything seen during the last decade at least.

Will be interesting to see how this year unfolds. Hoping for something like 1964 which was a coast to coast cool summer, but probably won’t happen. :( 

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Some showers rolling through. Wasn’t expecting that this morning: 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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10 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Another snowy morning. Picked up 5" overnight and still coming down heavily. Currently 32F.

Screen Shot 2022-04-29 at 9.20.34 AM.png

 

How much more snow do you get than the airport. I looked at their April stats the other day and saw they only had about 12”. Seems like you have had way more. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Some sunshine in Salem. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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28 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

How much more snow do you get than the airport. I looked at their April stats the other day and saw they only had about 12”. Seems like you have had way more. 

A lot more. The airport sits in another town 15 miles away (Belgrade) in the low point of the valley at 4,400ft and is largely precip shadowed and is classified as more high desert compared to Bozeman.

Think the airport averages around 60"/yr vs 92" in Bozeman and probably ~130" here. Town sits at 4,900ft and my house is 6 miles further south of town and sits at 5,350ft. 

Here you can see the large precipitation gradient between the two cities and as you head south and east.

Screen Shot 2022-04-29 at 10.04.49 AM.png

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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34 minutes ago, Kayla said:

A lot more. The airport sits in another town 15 miles away (Belgrade) in the low point of the valley at 4,400ft and is largely precip shadowed and is classified as more high desert compared to Bozeman.

Think the airport averages around 60"/yr vs 92" in Bozeman and probably ~130" here. Town sits at 4,900ft and my house is 6 miles further south of town and sits at 5,350ft. 

Here you can see the large precipitation gradient between the two cities and as you head south and east.

Screen Shot 2022-04-29 at 10.04.49 AM.png

Makes sense. I thought I had remembered you saying before the airport isn't really representative of even Bozeman proper.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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GFS really upping the juice on the system coming in this afternoon. Overall the run is a bit drier through day 10, but shows a good soaker with about 0.5-1" in the Willamette Valley and about 1-1.5" up here by tomorrow afternoon. PDX may get that April rainfall record...

3 decent soakers, tonight, Monday, and then on Thursday. 

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS really upping the juice on the system coming in this afternoon. Overall the run is a bit drier through day 10, but shows a good soaker with about 0.5-1" in the Willamette Valley and about 1-1.5" up here by tomorrow afternoon. PDX may get that April rainfall record...

3 decent soakers, tonight, Monday, and then on Thursday. 

... which could lead to 3 decent drizzle events in California.

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5 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

... which could lead to 3 decent drizzle events in California.

LOL. The 12z overall looks like it's going to be a warm outlier around the 10th. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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There’s some light sprinkles around…but not expecting much more precip. Suns coming out and we’re up to 52. If the euros right we should end April with about 3.75” of rain just slightly above average. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

LOL. The 12z overall looks like it's going to be a warm outlier around the 10th. 

It wants to cut off that trough sooo badly. Typical GFS.

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10 minutes ago, Phil said:

GFS operational vs its own ensemble mean @ D10: F2E94832-58E3-4DE1-9A14-52E9B5E0AA8B.gif

That partially a timing issue... the GFS operational is faster with evolution.

Also remember... a few days ago the ECMWF was showing a very cold trough diving into the PNW on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week while the GFS was dry.    The ECMWF and GFS did compromise on the 500mb pattern but the ECMWF is now dry on those days as well.    The GFS was not totally out to lunch.    

Here is the 00Z ECMWF for next Wednesday morning... very different than what it was showing 2 days ago.    And in fact the GFS is now more aggressive with that trough.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1665600.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That partially a timing issue... the GFS operational is faster with evolution.

Also remember... a few days ago the ECMWF was showing a very cold trough diving into the PNW on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week while the GFS was dry.    The ECMWF and GFS did compromise on the 500mb pattern but the ECMWF is now dry on those days as well.    The GFS was not totally out to lunch.    

Here is the 00Z ECMWF for next Wednesday morning... very different than what it was showing 2 days ago.    And in fact the GFS is now more aggressive with that trough.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1665600.png

It’s a lot more than a timing issue. The problem was the GFS cutting off the GOA trough into a ULL and trapping it. The trend across guidance was/is to increase the wavenumber, which included the ECMWF, and is a typical seasonal occurrence.

The chronic error(s) in the GFS are something entirely different and are vulnerable to exposure during the spring/early summer months. 

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s a lot more than a timing issue. 

The problem was the GFS cutting off the GOA trough into a ULL and trapping it. The trend across guidance was/is to increase the wavenumber, which included the ECMWF, and is a typical seasonal occurrence.

The chronic error(s) in the GFS are something entirely different and vulnerable to exposure during the spring/early summer months.

Definitely an issue with the GFS... but the reality usually ends up being a compromise rather than complete cave.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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