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April 2022 (April 2008/2011 redux)


TacomaWaWx

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I do think we'll see another period of ridging sometime in the May 10-15th timeframe. Likely somewhat transitory. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Definitely an issue with the GFS... but the reality usually ends up being a compromise rather than complete cave.  

Agreed, however compromise was a lot closer to the ECMWF/EPS. It’s objectively true as evidenced by the D5 z500 skill scores.

That said, yes, seasonal transition periods are complicated, and errors/biases will exist across numerical guidance. And that will never change, given the physical impossibility of simultaneously measuring the instantaneous velocity and location of a particle. Everything becomes probabilistic at such small scales..we’ll never build a perfect model. Not in a billion years.

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Quite sunny here now... should be a nice afternoon ahead of the rain tonight.   The 12Z ECMWF is fairly decent by tomorrow afternoon.    And Sunday looks nice too.    Not bad.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I do think we'll see another period of ridging sometime in the May 10-15th timeframe. Likely somewhat transitory. 

I would’ve expected it roughly a week before then, but anything is possible I guess? By the middle of May we have the strongest bout of Indo-Pacific convergence yet, as the MJO constructively interferes with the enso/low pass signal. Hard to get a more La Niña look than that.

Though of course, there are all kinds of lags and external/state dependent variables involved in the teleconnection between that and extratropical wavetrains.

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5 minutes ago, Phil said:

I would’ve expected it roughly a week before then, but anything is possible I guess? By the middle of May we have the strongest bout of Indo-Pacific convergence yet, as the MJO constructively interferes with the enso/low pass signal. Hard to get a more La Niña look than that.

Though of course, there are all kinds of lags and external/state dependent variables involved in the teleconnection between that and extratropical wavetrains.

Yeah, we will have some ridging for a couple days next week. Seems like we are in a ridge trough, ridge trough type pattern. Hopefully into June.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, we will have some ridging for a couple days next week. Seems like we are in a ridge trough, ridge trough type pattern. Hopefully into June.

So much better than the trough, trough, trough, trough type pattern we have been stuck in during April.   😃

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So much better than the trough, trough, trough, trough type pattern we have been stuck in during April.   😃

That's not even true... We have had two decent ridges spaced about two weeks apart. Now the ridging will move to 5-7 day intervals. We also had ridging for about 6 straight weeks in January/February, and much of the latter half of March.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, we will have some ridging for a couple days next week. Seems like we are in a ridge trough, ridge trough type pattern. Hopefully into June.

Only thing I’m really hoping for this month is no snow in the passes on 5/20. Have a class field trip scheduled for that day.

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2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Only thing I’m really hoping for this month is no snow in the passes on 5/20. Have a class field trip scheduled for that day.

I doubt any pass elevation snow by then would stick on the roadways. Especially during the day. The May 21, 2013 trough was an absolute beast. We had a high of 41 and non-sticking snow fall in the morning. I hiked to Marion Lake which is around 4,000' a couple days later and there was no snow even left on the ground. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That's not even true... We have had two decent ridges spaced about two weeks apart. Now the ridging will move to 5-7 day intervals. We also had ridging for about 6 straight weeks in January/February, and much of the latter half of March.

I was referring to just April.   And overall... its been almost entirely troughy with a couple minor exceptions.   Hopefully a little less so going forward.

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was referring to just April.   And overall... its been almost entirely troughy with a couple minor exceptions.   Hopefully a little less so going forward.

True. But after the last two Aprils which were pretty persistently ridgy... I imagine mother nature is balancing the scales.

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15 hours ago, Kayla said:

Under a Winter Weather Advisory here for 4-10" of snowfall tonight into tomorrow morning. Currently raining heavily and 35 degrees.

In case anyone was keeping track, our grass is finally showing signs of life again and the daffodils have emerged from the ground! Everything seems to be running a couple of weeks behind schedule.

And the moisture gift keeps giving!

Screen Shot 2022-04-28 at 9.51.16 PM.png

Nice. We could really use some of that down here. At least it looks like we should get a little moisture early next week.

Just lots of wind for now.

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

GFS operational vs its own ensemble mean @ D10: F2E94832-58E3-4DE1-9A14-52E9B5E0AA8B.gif

And of course the 12Z ECMWF has an entirely different idea about day 10. 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2097600.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Sunday's weather looks good for the Lilac Bloomsday race. We get some beneficial moisture tomorrow and Monday. We could definitely use the rain. Then some nice weather returns in the middle of next week. Spokane may finally eclipse the 70 degree mark. Spokane Valley already reached 70 degrees in late March. It's nice to see some spring weather for a change.

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I was referring to just April.   And overall... its been almost entirely troughy with a couple minor exceptions.   Hopefully a little less so going forward.

Most of the troughing was wasted here. We received very little moisture, and we could definitely use a few raindrops.

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So what are your thoughts for CPC's summer prediction of a warmer summer? At this point it feels like every summer is a new record.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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1 minute ago, LowerGarfield said:

So what are your thoughts for CPC's summer prediction of a warmer summer? At this point it feels like every summer is a new record.

I think it’ll be cooler than last summer everywhere except western WA. Probably still warmer than normal across the board though. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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On 4/28/2022 at 10:30 AM, Phil said:

I will say if you’re on the coast it’s more tolerable due to the afternoon sea breeze, which can be quite stiff. Down in Saint Simon’s GA it turns on every day around noontime from June/July to September. Conditions would be intolerable without that.

Eh.....I can remember plenty of summer trips where it didn't kick in, and you are spot on, it was intolerable.  This was in the early/mid-80's and we almost always went to week of July 4th.  It rarely hit triple digits, but there were plenty of 98-99 degree days (triple digits in Brunswick and Waycross). 

There were some years where that was the case several days, but it happened at least once almost every year.....and inevitably it was the day we would decide to rent bikes over on Jekyll island.

Usually those brutal stretches ended with some wicked thunderstorms.

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On 4/28/2022 at 11:18 AM, snow drift said:

The South has nice springs before the humidity starts really cranking up in May.

You cannot beat early spring in the south.  Those first sunny days and all of the landscaping in bloom...March into early April.  I always get incredibly homesick watching the Masters.

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27 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Eh.....I can remember plenty of summer trips where it didn't kick in, and you are spot on, it was intolerable.  This was in the early/mid-80's and we almost always went to week of July 4th.  It rarely hit triple digits, but there were plenty of 98-99 degree days (triple digits in Brunswick and Waycross). 

There were some years where that was the case several days, but it happened at least once almost every year.....and inevitably it was the day we would decide to rent bikes over on Jekyll island.

Usually those brutal stretches ended with some wicked thunderstorms.

Yeah that’s true, had a few days like that on my visits. I should’ve said *almost* always.

Or sometimes the breeze will turn on *very* late in the day, like 4-5pm, so the majority of the day is unbearable but there’s some last minute relief.

And yeah, the days without the sea breeze almost always have big storms. I remember an incredible lightning barrage in one case..literally 1-2 CG bolts and simultaneous thunder every second. Scared the s**t out of me at the time (I was 12 or 13 years old). Only other time I experienced that was in July 2008 here at home. Really want to experience another one of those.

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Baltimore broke their record low last night.

Previous record was from 1874. Analog???

Impressive. 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

Only thing I’m really hoping for this month is no snow in the passes on 5/20. Have a class field trip scheduled for that day.

I have to drive a U-Haul back from Bozeman May 16th-17th, I'm starting to get really worried about Homestake and Lookout Pass based on what Kayla is seeing.   We will be doing Homestake in the late afternoon when there is the most daytime heating so fingers crossed.  We will be hitting Lookout around 10am.  I'm hoping to get across Snoqualmie before sunset, so we should be good there.

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38 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

You cannot beat early spring in the south.  Those first sunny days and all of the landscaping in bloom...March into early April.  I always get incredibly homesick watching the Masters.

Good old Savannah is hard to beat in March and April. I remember arriving at Ft Stewart in February of 1997. I was with another guy from Portland, Oregon, and I'm from Spokane. Temperatures were in the 70s and 80s. Neither one of us had ever experienced anything like that before. 😁

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55 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

So what are your thoughts for CPC's summer prediction of a warmer summer? At this point it feels like every summer is a new record.

Who knows. The pattern isn’t behaving the way it typically does ahead of a hot western summer, but given the likelihood of another monstrous 4CH this year, at least the interior West seems likely to roast again, IMO.

But the NPAC High might exert more influence on the PNW region this year. So a cool outcome confined to WA/OR wouldn’t surprise me in the least. 

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26 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah that’s true, had a few days like that on my visits. I should’ve said *almost* always.

Or sometimes the breeze will turn on *very* late in the day, like 4-5pm, so the majority of the day is unbearable but there’s some last minute relief.

And yeah, the days without the sea breeze almost always have big storms. I remember an incredible lightning barrage in one case..literally 1-2 CG bolts and simultaneous thunder every second. Scared the s**t out of me at the time (I was 12 or 13 years old). Only other time I experienced that was in July 2008 here at home. Really want to experience another one of those.

We never got the sea breeze at Ft Stewart. It was nothing but popcorn variety afternoon thunderstorms, which did little to alleviate the tropical heat.

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59 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

So what are your thoughts for CPC's summer prediction of a warmer summer? At this point it feels like every summer is a new record.

Only have to go back to 2020 to find a summer that wasn't close to record-breaking in your area. 😉

JJA20TDeptWRCC-NW.png

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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Only have to go back to 2020 to find a summer that wasn't close to record-breaking in your area. 😉

JJA20TDeptWRCC-NW.png

You're right about that. I moved from western WA (about ten mins from MossMan) at the start of July to Lewiston, ID and we had a really mild summer with the exception of a week of smoke and maybe two or three days of 105 plus heat which is not bad for that area. It didn't get hot until August and then quickly cooled. Slightly higher at my current location but it was mild there as well and I see it was yellow so about the mean.

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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14 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

You're right about that. I moved from western WA (about ten mins from MossMan) at the start of July to Lewiston, ID and we had a really mild summer with the exception of a week of smoke and maybe two or three days of 105 plus heat which is not bad for that area. It didn't get hot until August and then quickly cooled. Slightly higher at my current location but it was mild there as well and I see it was yellow so about the mean.

Summer 2020 was a late bloomer, but September into early October was pretty nice, minus the apocalyptic wildfire smoke in September.

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8 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Hopefully we can at least manage some more dry days.     

SEA is going to end up with 20 days with precip this month... normal is 14 days for April.    We are going to finish with 22 days out here.   

May averages 11 days with precip at SEA.     Even normal would be a win in my book.   😁

Sure, but SEA averages 13 days with more than .01" of precip and if the rain tonight was going to arrive a couple hours later, then SEA would be at 15 days for April (not that 16 days is that much more significant). Unless the storm over performs, SEA will end up below average for rainfall on the month. I think it will be pretty hard to argue that April has been a wet month at least from SEA north. Of course south of Seattle (and especially Oregon) is a completely different story.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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16 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Sure, but SEA averages 13 days with more than .01" of precip and if the rain tonight was going to arrive a couple hours later, then SEA would be at 15 days for April (not that 16 days is that much more significant). Unless the storm over performs, SEA will end up below average for rainfall on the month. I think it will be pretty hard to argue that April has been a wet month at least from SEA north. Of course south of Seattle (and especially Oregon) is a completely different story.

SEA actually picked up measurable rain this morning so the timing tonight is irrelevant now.   And tomorrow is a lock as well.

And I did not say it was a wet month.    It featured my least favorite way to get rain... a little bit on many days.    Hoping for a little more spacing in May.   

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah summer 2020 was fine... September... ugh... 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looks like North Bend topped out at 62.5 this afternoon... the 16th day this year at 60+ degrees.

For comparison... that same station was at 33 days above 60 by this day in 2015.    And just 5 days above 60 by this day in 2011.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Looks like North Bend topped out at 62.5 this afternoon... the 16th day this year at 60+ degrees.

For comparison... that same station was at 33 days above 60 by this day in 2015.    And just 5 days above 60 by this day in 2011.

It definitely has not been as consistently cool as 2011. This month should come in about 2F warmer than April 2011 down here at least. And March 2011 was much cooler than this past March. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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