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April 2022 (April 2008/2011 redux)


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7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Pics! 

Too late... sun won the battle and the snow has melted now.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

Pretty solid cloud cover here on the river in Salem and 44 at the office, I see SLE is reporting 47 and mostly sunny. They may hit 50 today, but it looks like they scored a low of 30 this morning after a 49/33 yesterday. Silver Falls currently 34 with flurries. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Too late... sun won the battle and the snow has melted now.  

Boo. I’ll ask mother nature to put another squall over you.

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Just now, Phil said:

Boo. I’ll ask mother nature to put another squall over you.

Don't worry... she always does.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

Wow, the GFS gives us more snow chances Saturday and Tuesday morning, and then closes out the month with an extremely cold trough that at face value would drop snow levels into the foothills. A few nice days on there too. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, Jginmartini said:

Sunny skies with rain falling from all the melting snow in the trees!   Beautiful in its own way 

 

36*

Seeing daytime snow like that in mid-April is really something special. Can't imagine that's happened more than a handful of times the last 100 years in Federal Way.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17.75"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

-2/22: 0.25"

-2/24: 0.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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All these records being smashed..maybe the Hunga Tonga eruption actually has reshuffled the deck somehow? :lol: 

Something like 8% of the total H2O mass above 100mb came directly from the eruption. Almost unimaginable.

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  • Longtimer

Hmmm... GFS ensemble is trending cooler. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer
3 minutes ago, Phil said:

All these records being smashed..maybe the Hunga Tonga eruption actually has reshuffled the deck somehow? :lol: 

Something like 8% of the total H2O mass above 100mb came directly from the eruption. Almost unimaginable.

It's possible, it could also be we were a bit "due" for a cooler than average spring, which makes sense given the -ENSO background state. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's possible, it could also be we were a bit "due" for a cooler than average spring, which makes sense given the -ENSO background state. 

Agreed.

http://spaceref.com/earth/tonga-volcano-had-a-smaller-cooling-impact-on-climate-change-than-first-thought.html

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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  • Longtimer

Friends of ours that lives at Lake Chelan posted a very snowy picture of their backyard on FB and wished they had held off on planting several new plants. 
Up here at home it’s been dry and cloudy. Had a low of 34. Might mow this afternoon. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Interesting. Basically says since the volcano erupted in the Southern Hemisphere, there isn't a mechanism for it to have much impact on the Northern Hemisphere. Volcanoes that erupt near the equator have a bigger impact globally and Northern ones impact us more.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

2021-22: 17.75"

-12/24: 0.5"

-12/26: 8.5"

-12/27: 1.5"

-12/29-30: 4"

-1/2: 2"

-1/5: 0.5"

-2/22: 0.25"

-2/24: 0.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

2019-20: 10.5"

2020-21: 14.5”

 

 

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Crazy morning trace of snowfall again for the second time in 3 days. Not as crazy as federal way but still pretty amazing! 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's possible, it could also be we were a bit "due" for a cooler than average spring, which makes sense given the -ENSO background state. 

Yeah the background state is as impressive as anything observed this century and would favor a cooler spring regime regardless.

But this pattern appears to be as impressive as anything observed since the end of the LIA. Could simply be the perfect alignment of variables on the subseasonal scale. Well within the realm of possibility. And perhaps the more likely explanation.

But it also wouldn’t surprise me if the immense injection of H2O (and other substances) into the stratosphere may have somehow affected the tropical-subtropical convection and circulation. Some of it even reached the mesosphere.

Almost 60km high. Blows Pinatubo out of the water..literally.

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/149474/tonga-volcano-plume-reached-the-mesosphere

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  • Longtimer

I bet this was a first for Wenatchee schools closing in April due to snow! 

67D2421C-B533-4D30-ADEC-E41614A0072F.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Problem is that only refers to the SO2 content (which is responsible for cooling the lower troposphere when injected into the stratosphere). 

In this case there was an insane amount of water vapor injected into the stratosphere (and even the mesosphere!) which may not cool the climate, but may drastically impact the structure of radiative/thermal fluxes and perturb tropical convection and global circulation. Perhaps even more significantly than SO2 alone would.

We’ve never had a massive phreatic eruption in the satellite era before, so this is a live experiment, of sorts.

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15 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Interesting. Basically says since the volcano erupted in the Southern Hemisphere, there isn't a mechanism for it to have much impact on the Northern Hemisphere. Volcanoes that erupt near the equator have a bigger impact globally and Northern ones impact us more.

That is nonsense and goes against everything we know about the Brewer Dobson Circulation and thermal-radiative balance (esp given the eruption was near the equator and roughly 20% of the ejected material is already in the NH).

It could be the eruption has a net warming effect on the climate when it’s all said and done. But the idea that an eruption just south of the equator (during boreal winter especially) cannot affect the NH is absurd.

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20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's possible, it could also be we were a bit "due" for a cooler than average spring, which makes sense given the -ENSO background state. 

The last real cold April in the region was 2011. Mother nature’s probably just tipping the scales back.

April 2017 was more incessantly wet and cloudy than it was cold, April 2011 was more of a continental nature. If anything 2011 was probably more “pleasant” outdoors, at least around here.

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

The last real cold April in the region was 2011. Mother nature’s probably just tipping the scales back.

April 2017 was more incessantly wet and cloudy than it was cold. If anything 2011 was probably more “pleasant” outdoors, at least around here.

I remember spring 2011 being exceptionally chilly, and a lot of cloud cover overall. Interesting we also had the late February cold snap in 2011, though that was a bit more pronounced than the one this year. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Tim mentioned the foliage has stopped progressing in his area. I haven't noticed that as much, because things are still fairly dormant up here, there are some leaves coming in on the alders, and vine maple are budding, but it will be interesting to watch the progression of the field grasses. Because I have grazing livestock that is always something I pay a close attention to. 

We bought the place in 2011, and I remember clearly how short the grass was when I first visited the home in early June. I have never seen it close to that short in any of the years since, and some of the understory vegetation had also not fully leafed out yet. Usually that's a process which occurs very rapidly in late April and early May. Will be interesting to see if this cold snap has any delaying effects on the process this year. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I remember spring 2011 being exceptionally chilly, and a lot of cloud cover overall. Interesting we also had the late February cold snap in 2011, though that was a bit more pronounced than the one this year. 

I don’t remember spring 2011 all that well because I was a kid then and I kind of still am. Was it very cloudy on the valley floor particularly? I remember 2012 being rainy though.

I get why Tim and Mossman complain about spring troughing... they’re in an NW flow orographic lift area. Very different geography. Hillsboro and Corvallis are both shadowed so even the troughing here still often produces “nice” weather. Just need an extra layer on is all.

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  • Longtimer

Oh good Lord. 

ORE214 at Silver Creek

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

The last real cold April in the region was 2011. Mother nature’s probably just tipping the scales back.

April 2017 was more incessantly wet and cloudy than it was cold, April 2011 was more of a continental nature. If anything 2011 was probably more “pleasant” outdoors, at least around here.

You may be correct on the moisture being generally wetter in 2017. April 2011 totaled almost no snow in K-Falls, so quite a bit different than 2012/2017. though it did graupel a heckuva lot in Spring 2011 on those afternoons with spotty showers all over the place. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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I notice there's fewer references to Spring 2010 after it started getting cold. I still lived in NW Oregon at the time and don't remember hating that season really. Even tho it had an insanely wet May, it was more temperate than the one's we've been discussing lately?

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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  • Longtimer
1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

I don’t remember spring 2011 all that well because I was a kid then and I kind of still am. Was it very cloudy on the valley floor particularly? I remember 2012 being rainy though.

I get why Tim and Mossman complain about spring troughing... they’re in an NW flow orographic lift area. Very different geography. Hillsboro and Corvallis are both shadowed so even the troughing here still often produces nice weather. Just need an extra layer on is all.

March was extremely cloudy. Salem had measurable rain on 28 of 31 days. 

April it was more showery. A lot of days like yesterday and today in the valley. 

May was also damp, and very gloomy by May standards here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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some short range models hinting at a couple inches tonight.  NWS made this statement a couple hours ago

 

The not so surprising, but very difficult to forecast, situation 
  where a very small scale circulation moving through the cold and 
  conditionally unstable airmass over Eastern Washington and North 
  Idaho has manifested in the form of heavy snow in the Wenatchee  
  area this morning. Storm reports reporting localized snow  
  accumulations of up to 16 inches near East Wenatchee, Washington  
  as of 830 AM this morning are verifying this morning. The  
  circulation is showing signs of weakening and slowly moving  
  northwest away from the area. With the expectation that pavement  
  temperatures will warm and at some time should at least inhibit,  
  if not work against, accumulation we will continue to mark the  
  activity of the snowfall associated with this small scale  
  circulation with a nowcast. Where and when could the next small  
  scale circulation make use of the cold conditionally unstable  
  airmass and produce a localized intense snowfall? In addition to a 
  circulation moving northeast that looks to move through Grant and 
  Adams county later this morning and early afternoon short term  
  Ensembles suggest such a circulation could approach the Spokane  
  and Coeur d`Alene area tonight into tomorrow morning and possibly  
  produce similar results in Southern Spokane and Southern Kootenai  
  Counties and further southward into parts of Whitman, Benewah,  
  Latah, and Shoshone counties (but north of Moscow/Pullman area)  
  with the probability of exceeding 4 inches of snowfall in 12 hours 
  between 5 PM PDT tonight and 5 AM PDT Friday morning is running  
  between 30 and 40 percent. /Pelatti 
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  • Longtimer
3 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

I notice there's fewer references to Spring 2010 after it started getting cold. I still lived in NW Oregon at the time and don't remember hating that season really. Even tho it had an insanely wet May, it was more temperate than the one's we've been discussing lately?

I was living in Oklahoma at the time, I do remember a lot of comments on Mark's blog and this forum around that time around how gloomy that spring was. I do notice some of Silver Falls record Min/maxes are from late April-June 2011. Looks like May 2010 had 5 sub-50 highs at Silver Falls and a monthly average high of only 55. June had a high of 48 on like the 20th... That's pretty impressive. 

May/June 2010 were much wetter than 2011. May 2011 was slightly cooler than 2010, but June 2010 was slightly cooler than 2011. 

Also checked on April, 2011 is the coldest April on record, 2010 was just a little below average, but was extremely wet.

 

  • Storm 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You must have dewpoints in the 80s to see that... right Phil? 😀

Depends what the ambient temperature is. 😄

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  • Longtimer

And it’s snowing. Guess I won’t be mowing. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

And it’s snowing. Guess I won’t be mowing. 

You’re a poet and you don’t even know it.

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  • Longtimer
5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

And it’s snowing. Guess I won’t be mowing. 

I love mowing... Haven't had a chance yet... Part of that is probably due to over expanding our duck flock... They browse through the front yard at night and keep the lawn at about 1-2" in length. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

Had a beautiful sunset last night. Tim you can see the progress of our leaf out...

No description available.

  • scream 6

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Had a beautiful sunset last night. Tim you can see the progress of our leaf out...

No description available.

That’s a more wintry look than 75% of January days here.

  • lol 1
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8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Had a beautiful sunset last night. Tim you can see the progress of our leaf out...

No description available.

That looks like Spring in Siberia. ;)

  • Snow 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Hmmm... GFS ensemble is trending cooler. 

I remember when the GFS/GEFS was projecting a big ridge for this timeframe (and a weird backtracking TPV). Oops.

I’ll never trust that model. Could be 100% correct, but the EPS/Canadian ensembles have lots of divergent solutions in the long range. Looks like a period of low predictability coming up late this month into early May (which is when MJO/tropical forcing would favor a warmer (or at least a less cold) upper level pattern in the NW).

Could be a very short hiatus, though. 🥶

  • Snow 1
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