April 2022 (April 2008/2011 redux)

[Cascadia_Wx]

Only a little over .30” with the system so far here, but looks like areas to the north and south have done much better. Nice to see .80” in Roseburg on the day so far 

[Skagit Weather]

Pretty remarkable how dry this storm will be in the lowlands and how wet it will be in the mountains. Maybe I'm just used to all the atmospheric rivers we've had this year, but I probably won't even pick up an inch of rain here while the strong orographic lift will lead to 5-7" in the Olympics/Cascades. Anyways, gusts close to 40 mph so far this morning and 0.34" in the bucket, mostly from a thunderstorm that rolled through just after 6 a.m.

Mount Baker has picked up 30" of snow since yesterday morning with possibly another 30" by tomorrow afternoon so that's exciting.

[TT-SEA]

20 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

For once this wet season it’s a strong system with excellent jet support. Pretty lacking since 2012.

There is definitely strong jet support with this system... but it appears to be short-lived.     The next troughy period will have much less jet stream influence.    Also... I am pretty sure we had a strong jet stream at times in April of 2017 and 2018.    Those were very wet months in western WA.

[TacomaWaWx]

Some of those cells moving on the coast look pretty intense. Down to 42 here suns back out and 0.64” today. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a 56/43 day yesterday mostly cloudy and breezy with rain starting in the early evening 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Some of those cells moving on the coast look pretty intense. Down to 42 here suns back out and 0.64” today. 

Just had some hail mixed in here with that last band of precip.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty strong system develops a week from today on the 12z. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ICON is colder for next weekend, would be snowy at the higher elevations. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pretty strong system develops a week from today on the 12z. 

Nice am hoping the current strong system isn’t just a one and done and there are more in the pipeline 

[The Blob]

Wet day, sun came out for our school walk.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Nice am hoping the current strong system isn’t just a one and done and there are more in the pipeline 

Just checked out the Oregon snow pack and it is absolutely horrific. Washington snowpack south of I-90 is pretty bad too. 

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just checked out the Oregon snow pack and it is absolutely horrific. Washington snowpack south of I-90 is pretty bad too. 

Klamath Basin snowpack 19% of normal. Rogue-Umpqua 25% of normal.

Gonna be tough to avert another nasty fire season.

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

There is definitely strong jet support with this system... but it appears to be short-lived.     The next troughy period will have much less jet stream influence.    Also... I am pretty sure we had a strong jet stream at times in April of 2017 and 2018.    Those were very wet months in western WA.

I don’t think the patterns in 2017 and 2018 were all that similar to this one. Look at the AAM tendency and anomalies in both of those..quite different.

What’s more anomalous here is the evolution of the pattern..from +EPO/zonal to -PNA/meridional through discontinuous retrogression within a few days. That’s pretty nuts.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just checked out the Oregon snow pack and it is absolutely horrific. Washington snowpack south of I-90 is pretty bad too. 

Snoqualmie Pass is getting pounded right now... my son is pretty stoked for spring skiing later this week when its in the 60s and sunny up there.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snowing in the passes here today too. TIM. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Operational GFS seems to be kind of on its own with how it handles the trough next weekend. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Snoqualmie Pass is getting pounded right now... my son is pretty stoked for spring skiing later this week when its in the 60s and sunny up there.   

Must be nice. The situation is absolute shitt here.

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Operational GFS seems to be kind of on its own with how it handles the trough next weekend. 

This isn’t a pattern the GFS will handle well.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Must be nice. The situation is absolute shitt here.

 

[RentonHill]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

An already interesting day is going to be even more so I have a feeling…Turbulent looking sky currently at work. 

 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

This isn’t a pattern the GFS will handle well.

Big picture is pretty much the same on all the models with a trough diving into the West early next week and focusing more on CA and OR next time and then the pattern becomes less amplified and quieter.  

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Big picture is pretty much the same on all the models with a trough diving into the West early next week and focusing more on CA and OR next time and then the pattern becomes less amplified and quieter.  

Subtle differences in the big picture reveal a lot about the evolution of the system state, though. The GFS keeps wanting to prograde the pattern again, then catches on and pushes it back.

It’s true that another bout of +EPO is showing up on both GEFS and the EPS, which is possible if models are correct in their handling of the Indo-Pacific convection (remains to be seen). 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Big picture is pretty much the same on all the models with a trough diving into the West early next week and focusing more on CA and OR next time and then the pattern becomes less amplified and quieter.  

Are we sure?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Are we sure?

The 12Z GEM at 240 hours... time will tell.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z GEM at 240 hours... time will tell.   

GFS at 240 hours is rock solid?

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS at 240 hours is rock solid?

Nope.      As I said... time will tell.  

[RentonHill]

Very windy and a sprinkling of rain overnight in Twisp. Just that teeny bit of moisture seems to have resulted in serious greenification of the hillsides overnight. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Had some hail a bit ago…suns out again. 

[Blizzard777]

Power flickering and hail!

it’s happening

[Chewbacca Defense]

Wind was pretty crazy last night but it is calm this morning and some light rain.  I have no idea what the temp is as the replacement part I put on my weather station already the bed.  Looks like I might be doing that Davis upgrade a lot sooner than I had planned.  I'm going to wait and see what the Ambient weather support team has to say.

 

Up  to .38" on the day.

[RentonHill]

25 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Very windy and a sprinkling of rain overnight in Twisp. Just that teeny bit of moisture seems to have resulted in serious greenification of the hillsides overnight. 

temp dropped from 48 to 35 in the last 45 minutes as wind switched to out of the North.

[Phil]

51 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12Z GEM at 240 hours... time will tell.   

To be fair it’s a better performing model than the GFS. 

[Omegaraptor]

Wow... windy in Corvallis. Trees are shaking. Strong winds here are about as common as 75 degree low humidity August days where Phil lives.

[Phil]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

Wow... windy in Corvallis. Trees are shaking. Strong winds here are about as common as 75 degree low humidity August days where Phil lives.

D**n, that’s really impressive then.  

[Omegaraptor]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

D**n, that’s really impressive then.  

Some of the lowest average windspeeds in the United States are in Western Oregon’s interior valleys. Particularly the Rogue and Umpqua valleys, although the Willamette Valley (excluding areas near the Columbia Gorge) isn’t much better.

What would be called a “windy day” by east coast/your standards probably happens once or twice a year here.

[Phil]

March and April might be my favorite months of the year. Almost always dynamic, low humidity, and increasing daylight (I have some degree of SAD). Perfect combination.

The antithesis of August and September (stagnant and oppressively humid).

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just checked out the Oregon snow pack and it is absolutely horrific. Washington snowpack south of I-90 is pretty bad too. 

In 2017 and 2019 I remember people wanting it to stop snowing around this time frame. 

[Timmy Supercell]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

March and April might be my favorite months of the year. Almost always dynamic, low humidity, and increasing daylight (I have some degree of SAD). Perfect combination.

The antithesis of August and September (stagnant and oppressively humid).

May, late September and early October were the magical weeks at my other place. 

In the early 2010's, June fit in there somewhere, until about the 4th week when it really warmed up. But in recent years the heat can start anytime after 5/31. 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Some of the lowest average windspeeds in the United States are in Western Oregon’s interior valleys. Particularly the Rogue and Umpqua valleys, although the Willamette Valley isn’t much better.

What would be called a “windy day” by east coast/your standards probably happens once or twice a year here.

Must be a lot of falling deadwood during wind events out there.  

 

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

May, late September and early October were the magical weeks at my other place. 

In the early 2010's, June fit in there somewhere, until about the 4th week when it really warmed up. But in recent years the heat can start anytime after 5/31. 

You might enjoy Aug/Sep if you can tolerate the heat indexes. They’re still “convective” months.