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April 2022 (April 2008/2011 redux)


TacomaWaWx

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

This isn’t a pattern the GFS will handle well.

255C1751-C5E6-4C18-A687-FED8D6ACE60F.jpeg

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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Showers and sun breaks kind of day... live view from Issaquah getting a sun break currently.      Classic spring weather.  

iss 4-4.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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30 minutes ago, Phil said:

March and April might be my favorite months of the year. Almost always dynamic, low humidity, and increasing daylight (I have some degree of SAD). Perfect combination.

The antithesis of August and September (stagnant and oppressively humid).

April is my 12th favorite month. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Noticed that urban/UHI afflicted stations are putting up negative departures much more easily since the move to 1991-2020 climatology. Much less of a change in tendency of rural stations, by comparison.

It was nearly impossible for DCA to achieve negative departures during the summer months before the switch.

Now there’s been so much UHI that a 90/72 day in July registers a negative departure. An 81/63 day is a whopping -9 departure, while 97/74 is only +4. :lol: 

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EURO looks frosty. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

EURO looks frosty. 

Almost the entire West is in the purple. 🥶 

5E637075-3962-4423-8D0C-65481C7963B2.png

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Feels pretty chilly outside. 42 here with breezy SW winds and occasional hail so far. Nothing too crazy so far today but I’ve got a good feeling about later this afternoon. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

For once this wet season it’s a strong system with excellent jet support. Pretty lacking since 2012.

Something definitely shifted around the 2011-12 or 2012-13 seasons that has led to worsening drought over much of the western half of the country. Northern California has felt it the most, but other areas have been significantly impacted as well. I am trying to figure out exactly what that something is that shifted in the time period I mentioned above.

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10 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Just had the line pass over with hail and a burst of "high winds" (relatively speaking).  Looks like several lightning strikes in the north county.

IMG_2862.GIF

At least someone’s radar is working…

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Pretty substantial intraseasonal wave/MJO coming into the picture on the 12z EPS. Looks like a clean p8-1-2 transition (convection returning to IO/E-Hem late this month).

It’s a complicated time of year for state-independent projections, as these tropical/ET teleconnections are changing rapidly right now, but such a state change (at this point in time) would statistically favor a warm-up in the West late this month. I’d put the odds at 70-30 after the 20th.

But it’s a delicate balance, as there’ll likely be a +EPO/zonal component that could present a cool/wet outcome in areas more vulnerable to that. And any significant timing changes could redraw the picture (just 3 weeks later and you get a very different result from an E-Hem MJO transit).

A20117FC-B033-41FD-93FC-932E017DE59E.png

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Pretty substantial intraseasonal wave/MJO coming into the picture on the 12z EPS. Looks like a clean p8-1-2 transition (convection returning to IO/E-Hem late this month).

It’s a complicated time of year for state-independent projections, as these tropical/ET teleconnections are changing rapidly right now, but such a state change (at this point in time) would statistically favor a warm-up in the West late this month. I’d put the odds at 70-30 after the 20th.

But it’s a delicate balance, as there’ll likely be a +EPO/zonal component that could present a cool/wet outcome in areas more vulnerable to that. And any significant timing changes could redraw the picture (just 3 weeks later and you get a very different result from an E-Hem MJO transit).

A20117FC-B033-41FD-93FC-932E017DE59E.png

Also, this would bring about another significant trade surge over the IPWP/Dateline, later this month and into May (as presently modeled).

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15 minutes ago, Phil said:

Pretty substantial intraseasonal wave/MJO coming into the picture on the 12z EPS. Looks like a clean p8-1-2 transition (convection returning to IO/E-Hem late this month).

It’s a complicated time of year for state-independent projections, as these tropical/ET teleconnections are changing rapidly right now, but such a state change (at this point in time) would statistically favor a warm-up in the West late this month. I’d put the odds at 70-30 after the 20th.

But it’s a delicate balance, as there’ll likely be a +EPO/zonal component that could present a cool/wet outcome in areas more vulnerable to that. And any significant timing changes could redraw the picture (just 3 weeks later and you get a very different result from an E-Hem MJO transit).

A20117FC-B033-41FD-93FC-932E017DE59E.png

A WUFACD?

That’s some old skool sheeeought right there.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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January-March ONI came in at -0.9. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Noticed that urban/UHI afflicted stations are putting up negative departures much more easily since the move to 1991-2020 climatology. Much less of a change in tendency of rural stations, by comparison.

It was nearly impossible for DCA to achieve negative departures during the summer months before the switch.

Now there’s been so much UHI that a 90/72 day in July registers a negative departure. An 81/63 day is a whopping -9 departure, while 97/74 is only +4. :lol: 

Yep. People started noticing the same thing with SEA last year, and I think PDX to an extent.

Makes sense, a lot of airports saw meaningful UHI increase in the 90s/2000s.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yep. People started noticing the same thing with SEA last year, and I think PDX to an extent.

Makes sense, a lot of airports saw meaningful UHI increase in the 90s/2000s.

Very noticeable at SEA... it's been much easier to put up negative departures since the change.   It's comforting to those who want to pretend the climate is not actually warming.    😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This might be the most impressive La Niña background state of the 21st century. Right up there with the big ones.

These regimes rarely last through the summer (not even 2008 and 2011 maintained coherence) but the effects of this, and the inevitable transition away from it, will likely reverberate.

Amazing how much has changed since January, when the system was seemingly pulling away from -ENSO. Fooled me at the time. But the poleward transport of -AAM failed and the system snapped back hard (the failure may actually have amplified the snap-back).

98012476-DFDA-415F-8122-4DA1E7D9BC4B.jpeg

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18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Very noticeable at SEA... it's been much easier to put up negative departures since the change.   It's comforting to those who want to pretend the climate is not actually warming.    😀

Also puts the degree of UHI into perspective.

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Forecasted to see 70+mph winds this evening with the frontal passage along with heavy rain changing to snow with near whiteout conditions likely. Later this week our first 70 degree day of the year is possible.

Next week the coldest mid April airmass since 2020 looks to hit here with heavy snowfall possible. Must be Spring in the Northern Rockies!

Screen Shot 2022-04-04 at 3.13.47 PM.png

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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0A7B779D-20E5-4B65-B8E4-EE2F285EC7BE.jpeg

84048F24-3E9B-4313-9E9A-F90A030D4413.jpeg

Blustery, beautiful day out there.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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56 minutes ago, Phil said:

This might be the most impressive La Niña background state of the 21st century. Right up there with the big ones.

These regimes rarely last through the summer (not even 2008 and 2011 maintained coherence) but the effects of this, and the inevitable transition away from it, will likely reverberate.

Amazing how much has changed since January, when the system was seemingly pulling away from -ENSO. Fooled me at the time. But the poleward transport of -AAM failed and the system snapped back hard (the failure may actually have amplified the snap-back).

98012476-DFDA-415F-8122-4DA1E7D9BC4B.jpeg

So is this 19756/6 in reverse? This will catapult us back down??

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

This might be the most impressive La Niña background state of the 21st century. Right up there with the big ones.

These regimes rarely last through the summer (not even 2008 and 2011 maintained coherence) but the effects of this, and the inevitable transition away from it, will likely reverberate.

Amazing how much has changed since January, when the system was seemingly pulling away from -ENSO. Fooled me at the time. But the poleward transport of -AAM failed and the system snapped back hard (the failure may actually have amplified the snap-back).

98012476-DFDA-415F-8122-4DA1E7D9BC4B.jpeg

GLAAM!!!

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A forum for the end of the world.

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52 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Forecasted to see 70+mph winds this evening with the frontal passage along with heavy rain changing to snow with near whiteout conditions likely. Later this week our first 70 degree day of the year is possible.

Next week the coldest mid April airmass since 2020 looks to hit here with heavy snowfall possible. Must be Spring in the Northern Rockies!

Screen Shot 2022-04-04 at 3.13.47 PM.png

Your post had me looking at the the weather averages for Bozeman and it looks like if those temperatures at the end of the run verified they would be close to record lows. And then I found myself distracted by the fact that you had a 32F high on May 21st last year??? I had completely forgotten that and it's amazing how anomalous that was!

Not applicable to MT or you, but it also had me looking back at the older posts and it appears the June discussion thread from last year is gone? Did it get removed from the history books because of the heat trauma it caused for everyone?

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Interesting little feature on the 18z. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_27.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Well alrighty then...

sn10_024h.us_nw.pngsnku_024h.us_nw.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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11 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Your post had me looking at the the weather averages for Bozeman and it looks like if those temperatures at the end of the run verified they would be close to record lows. And then I found myself distracted by the fact that you had a 32F high on May 21st last year??? I had completely forgotten that and it's amazing how anomalous that was!

Not applicable to MT or you, but it also had me looking back at the older posts and it appears the June discussion thread from last year is gone? Did it get removed from the history books because of the heat trauma it caused for everyone?

August and September 2021 discussions are gone too too bad Fred is gone because it seemed like he was really good at maintaining archives 

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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