April 2022 (April 2008/2011 redux)

[Thunder98]

53 minutes ago, T-Town said:

10.3% sales tax here…

The best strategy is to live in Vancouver, WA so you don't pay state income tax, but shop in Portland due to Oregon not having a sales tax. 

[Phil]

Interestingly the leaves are still emerging today even with the winter precipitation. Haven’t slowed down at all since the cold front a few days ago, if anything it’s accelerated.

I think strong wind is what really stunts the leaves. Even warm/dry wind seems to have a negative effect if it’s blowing hard enough. And there is no wind at all right now.

[Phil]

Why couldn’t this pattern have occurred in the middle of winter? Would be epic stuff from coast to coast.

Even just a few weeks earlier and we’d be ripping dendrites right now, instead of this sloppy mix.

[Anti Marine Layer]

35 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm willing to let it go. Though as I walked through the Silver Falls backcountry yesterday and gazed into the crowns of 250' conifers, I could not help but wonder if the cold wind biting against my jacket was also sealing their fate.

O conifer, o conifer
Thy leaves are so unchanging
O conifer, o conifer
Thy leaves are so unchanging
Not only green when summer's here
But also when it's cold and drear
O conifer, o conifer
Thy leaves are so unchanging

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Why couldn’t this pattern have occurred in the middle of winter? Would be epic stuff from coast to coast.

Even just a few weeks earlier and we’d be ripping dendrites right now, instead of this sloppy mix.

La Ninas always have droughty winters and troughy springs

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

La Ninas always have droughty winters and troughy springs

I think this pattern can be chalked up to the dynamic final warming (basically a very late SSW).

Probably explains the anomalous cold in the PNW, too.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think this pattern can be chalked up to the dynamic final warming (basically a very late SSW).

Probably explains the anomalous cold in the PNW, too.

I was going to ask you if the cold out here was related to the SSW... seems like that was the case.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

50 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So keeping it going?

For the record... I did not bring up the stunting from the cold.  Meatyorologist did.   I just like to see the full leaf out and the cold is delaying it.   

If you ignore it then it stops. But it looks like the hooks worked again.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

If you ignore it then it stops. But it looks like the hooks worked again.

Apparently it goes both ways.   

[Phil]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was going to ask you if the cold out here was related to the SSW... seems like that was the case.

Interesting how dominating the teleconnection between the PV and NPAC/PNW has become in recent years. It was always there, but not necessarily this coherent or overwhelming.

There were plenty of winters in the 1980s/90s that delivered major cold to the NW absent any demolition of the PV. But in recent years, almost every winter with a strong vortex has torched up there, and every SSW has been followed by anomalous cold in the West.

I think these dynamic relationships evolve with respect to time. It used to be the Eastern US and Europe that saw the most direct effects from SSW events, but now that appears to have shifted such that the dynamic linkage is stronger in Western North America. At least for the time being.

I’d always said that SSW events were important for weather/climate dynamics across the NH, including the NW (as opposed to the myth that they only affected the E-US) but it’s still fascinating to watch it play out in real time.

The climate shift in 2013 (seemingly triggered by the SSW in winter 2012/13) is what ultimately woke me up to their importance. I believe there’s evidence that the late 1940s climate instability (and eventual transition to -PNA/-PDO) also began with a series of SSW/dynamic FW events and their effects on tropical convection and the ENSO/IPWP system.

Though it could be both were a symptom of larger scale, low frequency changes in the system state. Can’t know for sure.

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like the rains almost here. Should easily make this the wettest April since 2018 by the end of the day. 

[Phil]

On another note, what an embarrassing month for the GFS/GEFS. Caved to the Euro/EPS every step of the way.

Was even projecting a large ridge over the West during (what was inevitably) the most anomalous portion of the cold pattern.

Also the GFS didn’t even have this east coast storm a few days ago. Nothing. Just an open wave.

What a disgrace. I wouldn’t shed a tear if NCEP pulled the plug on the GFS tonight. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

So keeping it going?

For the record... I did not bring up the stunting from the cold.  Meatyorologist did.   I just like to see the full leaf out and the cold is delaying it.   

I was just sharing an observation. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I was just sharing an observation. 

Me too.  

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Looks like the rains almost here. Should easily make this the wettest April since 2018 by the end of the day. 

Likely going to end up being drier than normal here this month.   This pattern of negatively tilted troughs eliminates the orographic enhancement we usually get out here.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Likely going to end up being drier than normal here this month.   This pattern of negatively tilted troughs eliminates the orographic enhancement we usually get out here.

Sounds like the ideal pattern for everyone, then. North Bend becomes a dry oasis, while all of the Cascades and OR/N-CA run surpluses. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Little bit drier GFS run once we get through this week. 

[RentonHill]

Interesting that they added all the ski areas and passes to the meteograms locations. Sorry if someone already pointed that out

[RentonHill]

Light snow shower moved in and its down to 36. Last year on this date it was....75 degrees. MTD we've had nine sub-freezing lows in April and last year we had....one. 

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF run is about 45 minutes late today... just starting now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Need it to trend wetter, but it's a start. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS was a bit of a warm/dry outlier. The ensemble mean actually trended cooler and wetter. 

[Meatyorologist]

[Meatyorologist]

17 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Need it to trend wetter, but it's a start. 

Isn’t that about as wet as it gets this time of year?

[Chewbacca Defense]

On 4/17/2022 at 12:45 PM, TT-SEA said:

Moving?  No.   That is silly. 

But we are actively looking to buy a vacation rental property in Hawaii or maybe Isle of Palms in South Carolina.   Regardless of spring weather here. 

I've heard the Isle of Palms is really nice.  My wife used to work with a sales rep that lived there and he loved it. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

14 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Definitely tough.   My mom is good still... but my dad was diagnosed with Parkinsons and the symptoms mimic dementia and alzheimers and he is in a memory care facility now.    I think my mom is ready to go wherever she can be with him and have skilled medical care available. 

That sucks, but hopefully you can find a place they like.  My mom hates where she is at.  It's a really nice place, but she didn't want to go.  Be prepared that even with the best facility, it will be an extremely difficult transition giving up their "independence."  Hopefully the fact that your mom will be able to be with your dad will soften the blow for her.

 

If you need a realtor, let me know, the realtor we worked with to buy our house is amazing, we have actually become friends with him over the years.  He is 100% referral based, so he really takes care of his clients.  Shoot me a message if you want his contact info.  He actually lives across Britton from Tweed Twenty (I think it is called Spring Hill/Springdale neighborhood...I forget the name).  The market is still a zoo up here.  Another buddy is trying to buy, and they gave up on Bellingham are looking at Mt. Vernon.  Even there they are putting in offers $20-50k over asking and getting outbid by another 20k+ over that.  He said that Bellingham was way worse (from a buyer's perspective).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like SLE north has seen about 0.15-0.25" so far today. Eugene seeing some gusty winds at last report. 

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Isn’t that about as wet as it gets this time of year?

I tend to feel a pretty stark sense of emptiness and meaninglessness when it isn't running historically wet.

[TT-SEA]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like SLE north has seen about 0.15-0.25" so far today. Eugene seeing some gusty winds at last report. 

58F and blustery with some rain. Fun, active day. Nice to keep the rain going and hopefully keep the fire threats low.

[FroYoBro]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Everyone needs to give this man (monster) a down arrow reaction. 

Edited April 18, 2022 by FroYoBro

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Everyone needs to give this man (monster) a down arrow reaction. 

DONE!

[TT-SEA]

Light rain has finally started here... you can definitely tell the pause on the vegetation has ended.   Things have jumped quite a bit since we left on Saturday... with a sunny day near 60 yesterday and a mild night and now some rain.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Light rain has finally started here... you can definitely tell the pause on the vegetation has ended.   Things have jumped quite a bit since we left on Saturday... with a sunny day near 60 yesterday and a mild night and now some rain.   

There was never a pause. It's all in your head. 

Edited April 18, 2022 by SilverFallsAndrew

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There was never a pause. It's all in your head. 

There definitely was a pause... everything stayed the same for about 10 days and has progressed more in 36 hours than the last 10 days combined.    Fairly normal for things to progress in spurts during the early and middle part of spring.   But the pattern ahead will lead to pretty consistent progress.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

There definitely was a pause... everything stayed the same for about 10 days and has progressed more in 36 hours than the last 10 days combined.    Fairly normal for things to progress in spurts during the early and middle part of spring.   But the pattern ahead will lead to pretty consistent progress.

It's weird there was not a noticeable pause here where it was colder and we had more snow...

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It's weird there was not a noticeable pause here where it was colder and we had more snow...

Other people up here also noticed the pause... not sure about your area. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Regardless of what the vegetation was or was not doing last week. We had a mean temp of 36.0,  3.65" of precip, and 18" of snow. We also recorded 8 straight days of snow cover. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yikes, getting pretty stormy out there. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 44 at Astoria behind the cold front. About to hit 1" of rain on the day there too.