Iceresistance Posted April 6, 2022 Report Share Posted April 6, 2022 This needs a topic of itself, Big Joe B & Mike Ventrice are very concerned for severe storms across Oklahoma & Texas starting April 11th (Members that could get Supercell storms: @Iceresistance(Me ). @Andie, & @OKwx2k4.) Joe Bastardi's Tweet Mike Ventrice on April 13th (Nothing yet from the SPC due to high model divergence at time of forecasting) 4 1 2 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted April 6, 2022 Report Share Posted April 6, 2022 This looking like another version of December's TOR craziness! 2 1 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 6, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 6, 2022 7 minutes ago, jaster220 said: This looking like another version of December's TOR craziness! Except this time, it's in the Central & Southern Plains . . . Forgot to mention that Mike Ventrice's Forecast needs to be treated with a Grain of Salt 1 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 6, 2022 Report Share Posted April 6, 2022 12Z GFS, Canadian, and Euro all want to move the Low over Nebraska and have the heavy precipitation north. Really not shocking as that has been the theme since the Fall. Have to hope models come back south, though this year that has meant south of Nebraska. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted April 6, 2022 Report Share Posted April 6, 2022 Oh well, it sounds like another very active spring where we duck and dodge the hail and high winds. That's not out of the ordinary for us, but when the hail climbs above marble and winds exceed 50mh, I'm ready to duck and cover. Just out of curiosity what's creating the uptick in strength? Also, I have noticed that as our winters have become prone to deeper arctic cold, how is this affecting our springtime weather? Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 6, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 6, 2022 38 minutes ago, Andie said: Just out of curiosity what's creating the uptick in strength? Also, I have noticed that as our winters have become prone to deeper arctic cold, how is this affecting our springtime weather? Spring storms are usually more crazy, but it's still anyone's guess for the Spring season after winter because 2021 was crazier with winter, but less crazy with the Spring Storms. 2022 (Now) also had a crazy winter, & it's posed with a equally crazy spring as well, already a record high number of Tornado Warnings issued from NWS-DFW. 2 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted April 7, 2022 Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 We’re very much in a period of turbulence. The DFW area is under a high wind warning till 7am. Nighttime wind is curious. Usually it’s the daytime wind blowing us off the map. Newbies to Texas hate our crazy weather . “Wilcommen!!!” edit: We’re also under high fire warnings. Warm, dry, windy. Oh yeah. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, Andie said: We’re very much in a period of turbulence. The DFW area is under a high wind warning till 7am. Nighttime wind is curious. Usually it’s the daytime wind blowing us off the map. Newbies to Texas hate our crazy weather . “Wilcommen!!!” In Oklahoma, it's known as "Sweeping down the Plains!" Nebraska has managed to record Hurricane-force wind gusts. 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted April 7, 2022 Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 I don’t know if Texas has a phrase for it. Most of us say it’s windy as hell! Or simply, “Breezy”. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 @Andie My Local TV met will let us know if it's going to be windy soon if they say something like: "Cranking up the Wind Machine" 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 Got this forecast from KWTV-News 9, you can clearly see the high moisture/Dewpoint levels Next Week 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted April 7, 2022 Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 Definitely of concern about the upcoming weather. Areas west of Tulsa and metros look to be safer than I do at this juncture. Will be watching it develop. Possible late freeze Saturday also. Lots of folks out enjoying wild edibles this time of year (morels and wild onions) are going to be miffed off. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 7, 2022 Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 3 day severe weather event next week. If the gulf moisture can surge northward things could get real dicey! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted April 7, 2022 Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 GFS has highs next Tuesday in the upper 80s to mid 90s with dews dropping into the 20s/RH dropping into the single digits in south central Nebraska into north central Kansas. One thing I notice about severe potential/storm chances on Tuesday and probably why the GFS doesn't break out any storms on Tuesday afternoon is the lack of convergence along the dry line. Notice how you have almost no change in wind direction from the dry air to the moist air. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 7, 2022 Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 GFS and ICON dry slot most of Nebraska as it heads north. Just as I said yesterday. Will need it to really shift south if we want any meaningful precipitation. Not looking good as of now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted April 7, 2022 Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 DOT camera from out at Kearney, NE in central Nebraska showing the blowing dust 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 7, 2022 Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: GFS and ICON dry slot most of Nebraska as it heads north. Just as I said yesterday. Will need it to really shift south if we want any meaningful precipitation. Not looking good as of now. Yeah, they've trended toward an almost total nothingburger for Nebraska and Iowa for the entire week. The early week cold front shoots through the region with no precip, then that front holds all the convection way south. Meanwhile, the big low then tracks nw of the area so all the good lift/forcing is across the Dakotas and Minnesota. In between the low and the southern convection there is nothing. Ugh. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 7, 2022 Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 45 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Yeah, they've trended toward an almost total nothingburger for Nebraska and Iowa for the entire week. The early week cold front shoots through the region with no precip, then that front holds all the convection way south. Meanwhile, the big low then tracks nw of the area so all the good lift/forcing is across the Dakotas and Minnesota. In between the low and the southern convection there is nothing. Ugh. We've been missed in every direction this season. You would think our luck would turn with at least one of these. Not looking promising in any model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted April 7, 2022 Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 Yikes blowing dust advisory put out all the way to Lancaster county. Says visibility between a quarter mile to a mile. Will probably be a greater concern outside of the city but D**n. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 7, 2022 Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said: Yikes blowing dust advisory put out all the way to Lancaster county. Says visibility between a quarter mile to a mile. Will probably be a greater concern outside of the city but D**n. Couldn't see outside of town around noon today. This is like the 1930's. Not good for anyone. 2 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 7, 2022 Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 The Euro is much different than the other models. First, the other models blow the early-week front way south of the region, pushing all convection far away. The Euro, however, continues to stall the front up in this area. Because of this, the Euro has multiple rounds of storms across Iowa and into the lakes. Then, midweek, the Euro is much farther south with the main low. This leads to major precip across Nebraska. I really hope the Euro is right. 7 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 7, 2022 Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: The Euro is much different than the other models. First, the other models blow the early-week front way south of the region, pushing all convection far away. The Euro, however, continues to stall the front up in this area. Because of this, the Euro has multiple rounds of storms across Iowa and into the lakes. Then, midweek, the Euro is much farther south with the main low. This leads to major precip across Nebraska. I really hope the Euro is right. You beat me to it. Was just going to post the 12Z Euro, great minds think a like. This would be a dream scenario, either rain or snow would be fine at this point. As I watched out my 2nd floor classroom at lunch, I could see the dust rolling across the north edge of town. Any moisture would be a god send. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 7, 2022 Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 Meanwhile, this is the GFS. The Euro and GFS are on different planets. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 7, 2022 Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 Hope I'm wrong but I lean towards the GFS on this upcoming storm, I'm much more optimistic about rain for Nebraska with the following storm on the 16th. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 7, 2022 Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 35 minutes ago, Hawkeye said: Meanwhile, this is the GFS. The Euro and GFS are on different planets. Seems like there is always a meanwhile in the models this year. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted April 7, 2022 Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: 12z GFS was definitely a bit of a shift back southward compared to 00z and 06z runs for next week's storm. Still plenty of time for this thing to work out for SE SD/NE/IA. @MSP_Weatherare you wishing you were back in Fargo for this storm?! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 41 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: @MSP_Weatherare you wishing you were back in Fargo for this storm?! Sounds like that the storm systems hate @MSP_Weather , they always snow when he's not there! 1 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 7, 2022 Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 43 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: @MSP_Weatherare you wishing you were back in Fargo for this storm?! Lowkey yeah... 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 7, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 7, 2022 Also, it appears that the storm systems starting April 10th are slowing down (West shift), they do have a really bad tendency to do that over me for some reason. 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted April 8, 2022 Report Share Posted April 8, 2022 13 hours ago, Clinton said: 3 day severe weather event next week. If the gulf moisture can surge northward things could get real dicey! It’s been blowing hard all day. Gusting to 45-50 mph. Really uncomfortable. Certainly acting like it’s setting things up for a change. It’s the right timing for a warm up If this is any preview midweek should be a lulu! 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 8, 2022 April 12th is now needed to be watched very closely, 18z GFS went absolutely full-outbreak mode for Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, & Missouri. I'll put out the parameters on a different post because it's going to be huge. 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 8, 2022 Report Share Posted April 8, 2022 0z Euro...still advertising a major blizzard but its cutting this storm NW....what a temp gradient pattern across NE next week... Crazy winds yet again for the High Plains... 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 8, 2022 Report Share Posted April 8, 2022 It always opens up a hornets nest anytime I bring up the LRC but here I go anyways. This storm fits the part of the pattern related to Dec 10th which produced a severe and deadly tornado outbreak for the Ohio Valley and is a big reason I favour the further south solutions with this storm. The following storm showing up after Easter will also be a big severe weather producer further NW. Current day 6 outlook. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 8, 2022 10 hours ago, Iceresistance said: April 12th is now needed to be watched very closely, 18z GFS went absolutely full-outbreak mode for Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, & Missouri. I'll put out the parameters on a different post because it's going to be huge. Whoops, guess I forgot it was bedtime. 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 8, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 8, 2022 The High Parameters are also increasing further south for April 12th, this is the 6z GFS sounding over OKC 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 8, 2022 Report Share Posted April 8, 2022 1 hour ago, Clinton said: It always opens up a hornets nest anytime I bring up the LRC but here I go anyways. This storm fits the part of the pattern related to Dec 10th which produced a severe and deadly tornado outbreak for the Ohio Valley and is a big reason I favour the further south solutions with this storm. The following storm showing up around Easter will also be a big severe weather producer further NW. Current day 6 outlook. Back 2 Back cutters? I don’t see why not…it certainly fits the pattern. Usually we hear about a Palm Sunday severe wx event but this year it may just end up being an Easter Day storm threat. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted April 8, 2022 Report Share Posted April 8, 2022 DFW had a strong storm system in 2000 Easter. Interesting. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 8, 2022 Report Share Posted April 8, 2022 36 minutes ago, Tom said: Back 2 Back cutters? I don’t see why not…it certainly fits the pattern. Usually we hear about a Palm Sunday severe wx event but this year it may just end up being an Easter Day storm threat. Good call on the back to back cutters, I hope the drought areas can get some relief but models are already indicating moisture may stay east. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 8, 2022 Report Share Posted April 8, 2022 Local met has his eye on Wed for potential severe wx for eastern IA 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 8, 2022 Report Share Posted April 8, 2022 Unfortunately, it appears the cooler and drier GFS scenario is winning and the warm, wet Euro lost. The Euro is now blowing the early-week front well through the area, so now instead of rounds of storms around here there is nothing. Ugh. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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