Jump to content

April 10th - 15th Extremely dynamic storm system


Recommended Posts

The latest GFS, GDPS, and UK all show little precip out of this entire system through much of Nebraska and Iowa.

  • Sad 2

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sunday has a Marginal risk, this does need to be watched because if one of the storms manages to break the cap, we could have some isolated supercellular action from Texas to Oklahoma & to Missouri

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Goodness gracious, this sounding on the 18z GFS over OKC on Next Tuesday is looking very dangerous for Powerful Supercells, parts of Kansas has slightly more favorable Shear, the offset is the LCL is much weaker, but this sounding over OKC does not have that issue. O_O365855558_18zGFSSoundingoverOKC.thumb.png.e5bb5af0fc90306f54dc7f12ebd61ac5.png

  • Like 1

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Geeze, the 0z Euro is about as bad as it could get for @CentralNebWeather and OMA/LNK peeps...literally, a miss for those areas through THU...

image.png

 

On the flip side of things, as a wx enthusiast, this system is going to be a Beast of a Blizzard tracking across the Upper MW/GL's for days on end as a blocked up pattern takes hold through Easter Weekend...parts of the N Rockies into the Black Hills was my original target area, but the shift NW is taking place as this system just bombs out somewhere over N MN.

image.png

 

The 2nd cutter is showing up on the 0z EPS and it has a wintry component to it....#EasterSnowBunny

1.gif

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Iceresistance changed the title to April 10th - (?) Storm systems with Severe Storms. Enhanced risk for severe storms in place on D4 & D5

Day 5

image.png.deba2b4625440440fa59dd1820f6565d.png

   Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A substantial, multi-day severe thunderstorm event will continue on
   Day 4/Tuesday and Day 5/Wednesday across much of the central CONUS.
   Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes should
   occur.

   ...Day 4/Tuesday: Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi
   Valley/Midwest...
   Medium-range guidance is coming into somewhat better agreement
   regarding the eastward progression of an upper trough across the
   western/central CONUS on Day 4/Tuesday. A deep surface cyclone is
   forecast to eject eastward across the central Plains through the
   day, reaching the vicinity of the Upper Midwest Tuesday night.
   Low-level moisture will advect rapidly northward ahead of the
   surface low and east of a dryline across parts of the
   southern/central Plains into the mid MS Valley. Rather steep
   mid-level lapse rates are expected to be present over much of the
   warm sector, which should aid in the development of moderate to
   strong instability east of the dryline by Tuesday afternoon.

   As mid-level height falls and related ascent preceding the upper
   trough overspread the southern/central Plains, convection will
   likely initiate along the dryline from eastern KS to central TX.
   Even with deep-layer shear forecast to remain fairly modest through
   the day, the large reservoir of buoyancy will likely support robust
   severe thunderstorms. Large to very large hail should occur with
   initially discrete convection, and damaging winds will be a concern
   as convection grows upscale Tuesday night. Greater tornado potential
   may focus across the central Plains into parts of the Midwest/mid MS
   Valley, where better low-level shear should be present owing to a
   strengthening low-level jet. A 30% severe area has been included
   where confidence is greatest in supercells occurring Tuesday
   afternoon/evening.

   ...Day 5/Wednesday: Southern/Central Plains into the Mississippi
   Valley/Midwest and Southeast...
   Convection still posing some severe threat may be ongoing Wednesday
   morning across parts of the lower MS Valley and Mid-South in a
   strong low-level warm advection regime. As the large-scale upper
   trough ejects eastward over the central CONUS, low-level moisture
   should continue to stream northward across the lower/mid MS Valley
   into parts of the Midwest. There are some differences in model
   guidance regarding the evolution of this upper trough on Day
   5/Wednesday. Still, it appears likely that scattered to numerous
   severe thunderstorms will develop across the broad warm sector and
   to the east of a cold front/dryline through much of the day. Strong
   deep-layer shear should combine with adequate instability to support
   updraft organization
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Starting to look like I will be too far SE for snow and too far NW for thunderstorms. Drats!

There seems to be a consistent theme for the past few storms in this area - close but no cigar. 

You're literally getting dry slotted, it gets really old really quickly after repeated Dry Slotting.

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

@AndieSlight risk with HATCHED area is over DFW & Texarkana for Next Monday

Well, I’m glad we’re dodging the main event.  We’ll take the rain to avoid fire threats and drought however.  

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sitting on the western edge of the D4 (Tue) severe enhanced area. Precip probabilities are 20% Tuesday and 40% Tuesday night in MBY so nothing certain here. Just keeping an eye on things for now.

  • Like 1

23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Looks like the Euro caved to the GFS (again)….

As has been the case all season. The models are an utter disaster for us. I would think more devastating fires are in our future. NWS Hastings disco was pretty pessimistic this morning about lack of rain and more wind. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS still refuses to slow down the midweek front.  It has the front moving through first thing Wednesday morning, while other models are more toward evening.  That will greatly impact the high temp.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Boy this is going to be quite the storm for North Dakota, as been the case all winter. 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
231 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022

NDZ002>005-009>013-017>023-031>036-040>046-100345-
/O.NEW.KBIS.WS.A.0003.220412T1200Z-220414T1200Z/
Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-
Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Golden
Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Slope-Hettinger-
Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-
Including the cities of Parshall, Hettinger, Fessenden, Wilton,
Marmarth, Glenburn, Dunseith, Sherwood, Killdeer, Tappen,
Dickinson, Minot, Mcclusky, Mandan, Beach, New Leipzig, New Town,
Watford City, Columbus, Solen, Shell Valley, Hazen, New England,
Underwood, St. John, Bismarck, Portal, Lignite, Harvey, Beulah,
Rugby, Center, Bowman, Rolette, Selfridge, Drake, Towner, Velva,
Linton, Mohall, Garrison, Medora, Washburn, Bowbells, Carson,
Elgin, Fort Yates, Halliday, Goodrich, Steele, Rolla, Mott,
Strasburg, Powers Lake, Stanley, Williston, Turtle Lake, and
Bottineau
231 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022 /131 PM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022/

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blizzard conditions possible. Total snow
  accumulations between 10 and 20 inches possible. Winds could gust
  as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Most of western and central North Dakota.

* WHEN...From Tuesday morning through Thursday morning.

 

  • Like 3
  • Snow 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

Slight risk now in place for Missouri tomorrow, appears that the cap is weaker there.

Just not alot of moisture available for mby with this storm. I think the Ohio Valley will be where the action is early next week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, gabel23 said:

Boy this is going to be quite the storm for North Dakota, as been the case all winter. 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
231 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022

NDZ002>005-009>013-017>023-031>036-040>046-100345-
/O.NEW.KBIS.WS.A.0003.220412T1200Z-220414T1200Z/
Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-McHenry-
Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-Oliver-McLean-Sheridan-Wells-Golden
Valley-Billings-Stark-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Slope-Hettinger-
Grant-Bowman-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-
Including the cities of Parshall, Hettinger, Fessenden, Wilton,
Marmarth, Glenburn, Dunseith, Sherwood, Killdeer, Tappen,
Dickinson, Minot, Mcclusky, Mandan, Beach, New Leipzig, New Town,
Watford City, Columbus, Solen, Shell Valley, Hazen, New England,
Underwood, St. John, Bismarck, Portal, Lignite, Harvey, Beulah,
Rugby, Center, Bowman, Rolette, Selfridge, Drake, Towner, Velva,
Linton, Mohall, Garrison, Medora, Washburn, Bowbells, Carson,
Elgin, Fort Yates, Halliday, Goodrich, Steele, Rolla, Mott,
Strasburg, Powers Lake, Stanley, Williston, Turtle Lake, and
Bottineau
231 PM CDT Sat Apr 9 2022 /131 PM MDT Sat Apr 9 2022/

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blizzard conditions possible. Total snow
  accumulations between 10 and 20 inches possible. Winds could gust
  as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Most of western and central North Dakota.

* WHEN...From Tuesday morning through Thursday morning.

 

What are the chances that The Weather Channel sends Reynolds Wolf or even Cantore to Dickinson, ND?  Like 1 in a million. 😉

  • Like 1
  • lol 2

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This guy is a pretty well known name in the chasing field. Used to be a forecaster for DDC too, and works in the private field now I believe.

He’s normally very pragmatic and realistic when it comes to setups, so this is the strongest wording I’ve ever seen from him.

I’m planning on chasing Tuesday probably down near/east of Wichita 

9D77C538-1B55-4BBA-A7F5-937FAA5456C2.jpeg

56132483-E29D-41DF-A7BA-C0D3E16F5614.jpeg

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

This guy is a pretty well known name in the chasing field. Used to be a forecaster for DDC too, and works in the private field now I believe.

He’s normally very pragmatic and realistic when it comes to setups, so this is the strongest wording I’ve ever seen from him.

I’m planning on chasing Tuesday probably down near/east of Wichita 

9D77C538-1B55-4BBA-A7F5-937FAA5456C2.jpeg

56132483-E29D-41DF-A7BA-C0D3E16F5614.jpeg

Sounds like fun. Don't get blown away.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

This guy is a pretty well known name in the chasing field. Used to be a forecaster for DDC too, and works in the private field now I believe.

He’s normally very pragmatic and realistic when it comes to setups, so this is the strongest wording I’ve ever seen from him.

I’m planning on chasing Tuesday probably down near/east of Wichita 

9D77C538-1B55-4BBA-A7F5-937FAA5456C2.jpeg

56132483-E29D-41DF-A7BA-C0D3E16F5614.jpeg

I don't know him very well, what does this usually mean? A potentially dangerous outbreak that even a strong cap would fail from keeping the storms from going?

 

EDIT: Apparently, he's not very trustworthy.

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

I don't know him very well, what does this usually mean? A potentially dangerous outbreak that even a strong cap would fail from keeping the storms from going?

 

EDIT: Apparently, he's not very trustworthy.

There’s actually a fairly decent sized area with minimal cap. And a cap under 50 can still be broken with the right atmospheric conditions which is what he’s saying above. Plus a little cap keeps storms more isolated and discrete.

I have no idea what you’re referring to in your edit nor do I know him personally. I’m only referring to the storm chasing forum I’m been on with him and other chasers for 10+ years so I’ve seen how he forecasts setups and that is normally not one with the bias of everything is huge and going to be the biggest outbreak ever like a lot of other chasers do.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

0z Euro flashing a Taste of Summer for the heartland on Tuesday...

image.png

 

All a while, a Blizzard will more than likely be taking aim for the Upper MW just hours later...a bit of a shift Etowards N MN with the heaviest snows... @Beltrami Island Go Big or Go Home say the 0z Euro??

1.png

 

 

Meantime, the 0z GFS/Canadien say ND is the epicenter...

snku_acc.us_nc.png

 

snku_acc.us_nc.png

 

 

Ya, looking deeper into the data, the 0z EPS certainly is shifting E with the heaviest snows in the last 24 hours...could be the Big Dog of the season for the Northwoods of MN...

 

 

image.png

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1
  • Sick 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Iceresistance changed the title to April 10th - (?) Storm systems with Severe Storms. Enhanced risk for severe storms in place on D3 & D4

The Euro continues to trend toward the GFS for us, which means lessening chance of storms Tuesday and an earlier frontal passage Wednesday.

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GFS continues to own the Euro wrt this system.  For days the GFS has not budged an inch with its prediction of a sunrise frontal passage Wednesday, so no warm day or storms.  Every run of the Euro, including the latest, gets closer to the GFS.  The latest run has the frontal passage around noon, so the 70º day is now gone.  Also, the latest Euro has the storms barely catching Cedar Rapids before they move east of the area.  This morning's UK is even closer to the GFS and has no storms in eastern Iowa.

  • Like 3
  • Sad 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The GFS continues to own the Euro wrt this system.  For days the GFS has not budged an inch with its prediction of a sunrise frontal passage Wednesday, so no warm day or storms.  Every run of the Euro, including the latest, gets closer to the GFS.  The latest run has the frontal passage around noon, so the 70º day is now gone.  Also, the latest Euro has the storms barely catching Cedar Rapids before they move east of the area.  This morning's UK is even closer to the GFS and has no storms in eastern Iowa.

Did you somehow forget that there's an Enhanced risk just outside of Des Moines for Tuesday's system?

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 373

      March 2024 Observations and Discussion

    2. 0

      March 31st - April 2nd Potent Plains Storm

    3. 373

      March 2024 Observations and Discussion

    4. 5703

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    5. 5703

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

×
×
  • Create New...