Minny_Weather Posted April 11, 2022 Report Share Posted April 11, 2022 I have tickets for Dodgers @ Twins on Wednesday, so if the dry slot verifies I'd be superrrr happy. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted April 11, 2022 Report Share Posted April 11, 2022 17 hours ago, Tom said: 0z Euro flashing a Taste of Summer for the heartland on Tuesday... All a while, a Blizzard will more than likely be taking aim for the Upper MW just hours later...a bit of a shift Etowards N MN with the heaviest snows... @Beltrami Island Go Big or Go Home say the 0z Euro?? Meantime, the 0z GFS/Canadien say ND is the epicenter... Ya, looking deeper into the data, the 0z EPS certainly is shifting E with the heaviest snows in the last 24 hours...could be the Big Dog of the season for the Northwoods of MN... So close yet so far over here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 11, 2022 @Hawkeye Enhanced risk for Tornadoes & BIG Hail in place for most of Iowa for Tuesday 3 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 11, 2022 Report Share Posted April 11, 2022 Iowa could be in for a bumpy day tomorrow. The cap will be an issue further south, it will be interesting to see if any storms can break through the cap in Kansas tomorrow afternoon. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 11, 2022 Report Share Posted April 11, 2022 6 hours ago, Iceresistance said: @Hawkeye Enhanced risk for Tornadoes & BIG Hail in place for most of Iowa for Tuesday I'll be heading back down to Iowa tomorrow morning. Could be interesting for sure 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 11, 2022 Report Share Posted April 11, 2022 I have a decent shot at my first rumbles of thunder tomorrow night it appears. Maybe some small hail but I really don't see the point of including MSP in any risk zone. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mlgamer Posted April 11, 2022 Report Share Posted April 11, 2022 2 hours ago, Clinton said: Iowa could be in for a bumpy day tomorrow. The cap will be an issue further south, it will be interesting to see if any storms can break through the cap in Kansas tomorrow afternoon. For MBY it seems a pre-midnight squall line is the most likely scenario, hopefully without any embedded tornadoes and perhaps beginning to weaken as it gets to my area. Any discrete storms that form earlier and sustain their strength could be a real problem. 2 Quote 23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted April 11, 2022 Report Share Posted April 11, 2022 Given the lack of almost any afternoon convection showing up on any of the models, I'm definitely more pessimistic on tomorrow. At this point, only the HRRR-v3 is showing anything in Kansas in the afternoon and that is a single supercell that blows up and moves northeast across eastern Kansas. I'm pretty sure I'm going to end up chasing the warm front or triple point and hope something goes up with at least a couple of hours of daylight left, otherwise the front lights up but not until near/after sunset. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 11, 2022 Y'all need to keep in mind that the models have a bad tendency of overestimating the Cap. Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterSquall23 Posted April 11, 2022 Report Share Posted April 11, 2022 20 hours ago, hawkstwelve said: Unless we can score some thunderstorms Tuesday night, this system has quickly turned into another whimper for Sioux Falls. What was once looking like a system with severe storm potential followed by a blizzard has turned into a little rain and some wind. Lame. 12z Euro does show the Easter system delivering 7+ inches of snow for KFSD but with how the storms have gone over the past month I've been here, going to assume it will find a way to miss us again. Meanwhile.. In Portland its snowing. April 11. Several inches reported in the hills above. Last time that happened was 80 years ago. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted April 11, 2022 Report Share Posted April 11, 2022 SPC focused the 10% hatched down to western Iowa and talks about lack of convection further south. Much shorter drive for me at least! Here’s the updated graphic from Omaha 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 11, 2022 Report Share Posted April 11, 2022 As the severe weather and blizzard are going on, we will have temps from 85-90 tomorrow, humidity around 10%, and winds gusting over 50 MPH. Please make it stop. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 11, 2022 The NWS-Springfield Radar is dead, Lightning struck it & blew up some parts, they're trying to get replacement parts back in as fast as possible, but the restoration time is unknown 2 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 11, 2022 Report Share Posted April 11, 2022 All models have moved up the Wednesday frontal passage to first thing in the morning for my area. Most models also show the Tuesday night storms crapping out before reaching here. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted April 11, 2022 Report Share Posted April 11, 2022 Dickinson, ND is looking like the place to be for this big winter storm. After this storm, lows in the single digits in April. 3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted April 11, 2022 Report Share Posted April 11, 2022 I'm a little concerned about tomorrow's severe weather. SPC seems to think it'll be rocking and rolling in Iowa, but reading AFD casts some doubt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted April 11, 2022 Report Share Posted April 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bellona said: I'm a little concerned about tomorrow's severe weather. SPC seems to think it'll be rocking and rolling in Iowa, but reading AFD casts some doubt. Yep. Here it is from DMX- Following with and behind the theta-e surge will be a band of low stratus that will lift north and then northeastward per the 00z/12z HREF. It looks like there will be clearing in the warm sector over at least southwest Iowa as the warm front lifts into Iowa with greater uncertainty in clearing farther northeast. From here, there appear to be at least two possible outcomes in the afternoon. The first are the models with the faster surface low progression. The HRRR is the farthest east by 00z with the surface low with the RAP and GFS lagging just a bit farther west closer to Sioux City. With these models being farther east with the low compared to the NAM and ECMWF, they pull the warm front 30 to 60 miles farther northeastward up towards Highway 20. HRRR and RAP forecast soundings at FOD show the elevated warm layer eroding with any inhibition breakable as the warm front reaches a location. Surface based CAPE will be around or in excess of 3000 J/kg and with the surface low`s closer proximity to north central Iowa, backed surface winds are helping to increase the storm relative helicity. Deep layer shear over 60 knots and 0- 1km SRH values are in excess of 300 m2/s2 and hodograph curvature in the low levels are showing a model environment favorable for supercells capable of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts and hail would also be hazards. This is not certain and will depend on the low and warm front position and enough forcing to break the lingering cap with the more likely time for stronger forcing toward and after dark. The other solution of the NAMNest, NAM, and ECMWF shows the low pressure moving slower with it over eastern Nebraska at 00z. Thus, the warm front is farther south in Iowa and with the low farther west there is a lack of forcing to overcome the inhibition. Thus, with forcing lacking, inhibition would not be overcome leading to less if no convection. So, the afternoon is far from set on the possible outcome and will need to watch the low and warm front positions tomorrow as well as incoming guidance over the next 18 to 24 hours. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 11, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 11, 2022 What if the Triple Point is a Cap bust & Kansas southward gets all the storms? Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted April 11, 2022 Report Share Posted April 11, 2022 26 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: What if the Triple Point is a Cap bust & Kansas southward gets all the storms? Triple points are almost never a cap bust. You have the max amount of forcing there, plus the upper level cooling with main energy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted April 11, 2022 Report Share Posted April 11, 2022 Various helicity tracks for tomorrow off of the 18Z CAM's. I'm thinking Sioux City if the warm front/triple point makes it that far north. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 12, 2022 Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 I find the high rez FV3 does really well inside 48 hours and it's showing a nasty line coming through here on Wed around dinner time. We'll need the sun to come out to get all the dynamics to come together. Confidence is growing that N IL could be under a real good threat for the 1st time this season. The 0z RGEM showing a bowing line.... 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 12, 2022 Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 It's looking like my area won't get much out of this system. The most bullish models show a decaying line moving through around midnight. Wednesday is out now because the front has sped up so much. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 12, 2022 Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 The cap is going to kill any real chance of thunderstorms for mby tonight. I fear there will be a huge tornado outbreak tomorrow over the lower Mississippi Valley up through the Ohio Valley, the same areas that had a deadly tornado outbreak already. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted April 12, 2022 Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 How often do 2 major cities in Arkansas both get hit with supercells in one evening? I notice both Fort Smith and northern part of Little Rock (AFB?) had tornadoes within an hour or two. 2 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 12, 2022 Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 Up to slight risk here. Hail looks to be my biggest threat. Given last year's absolute dud of a severe season, I'll take anything. Thankfully I have a garage. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 12, 2022 Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 30 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said: How often do 2 major cities in Arkansas both get hit with supercells in one evening? FTFY. I can't even think of a time where two major cities in general have been rocked in one night. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted April 12, 2022 Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, MSP_Weather said: FTFY. I can't even think of a time where two major cities in general have been rocked in one night. After opening that up to any state, Fort Smith might not be considered major with a pop under 100k, but it is the 2nd most populous in AR. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 11 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 The CINH is weakening rapidly over Oklahoma, fell from -200 to -75 (Generally) in some spots in the last 2 hours. That wind though, it's CRAZY! 2 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted April 12, 2022 Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 No biggie. Just possible long track strong tornadoes and baseball sized hail 4 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted April 12, 2022 Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 I've noticed that an outrageous spring blizzard in the Dakotas has become almost a yearly tradition. Bismarck and western ND currently getting crushed, multiple stations reporting 0.15 mi visibility. I couldn't imagine a map looking like this for eastern Nebraska: 6 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 Supercell in Western Texas right now 2 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted April 12, 2022 Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 Hearing my first rumbles of thunder since last September. 56°F. 6 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 12, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 Just now, MSP_Weather said: Hearing my first rumbles of thunder since last September. 56°F. There's a Severe storm near Red Wing, MN with Ping Pong ball sized hail. 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 12, 2022 Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 54 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: I've noticed that an outrageous spring blizzard in the Dakotas has become almost a yearly tradition. Bismarck and western ND currently getting crushed, multiple stations reporting 0.15 mi visibility. I couldn't imagine a map looking like this for eastern Nebraska: You just hope that some winter we could have something close to this. Been so long, you start to lose hope. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 12, 2022 Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 Tornado watch about to go out. Seems a little further west than predicted this morning. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted April 12, 2022 Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 I'm assuming this is the dry line showing up on the radar?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 12, 2022 Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 @Andie a tornado watch coming your way also. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 12, 2022 Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, gabel23 said: I'm assuming this is the dry line showing up on the radar?? Yep. Humidity of 14% and a dew of 29. Hello Vegas and Phoenix. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted April 12, 2022 Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said: Yep. Humidity of 14% and a dew of 29. Hello Vegas and Phoenix. Figured it was that or a darn Haboob forming!!! We made it up to 88 so far, will see if storms fire before the dryline pushes through my area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted April 12, 2022 Report Share Posted April 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: Yep. Humidity of 14% and a dew of 29. Hello Vegas and Phoenix. Actually might be blowing dust after all being picked up. BLOWING DUST ADVISORY NWS HASTINGS NE 328 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2022 KSZ006-007-018-019-NEZ039>041-046>049-061>064-074>077-084>087-130000- /O.EXA.KGID.DU.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-220413T0000Z/ 328 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2022 Smith KS-Jewell KS-Osborne KS-Mitchell KS-Valley NE-Greeley NE-Nance NE-Sherman NE-Howard NE-Merrick NE-Polk NE-Buffalo NE-Hall NE-Hamilton NE-York NE-Kearney NE-Adams NE-Clay NE-Fillmore NE-Franklin NE-Webster NE-Nuckolls NE-Thayer NE- ...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Visibility between one quarter mile and one mile in blowing dust. * WHERE...Portions of north central Kansas and central, east central and south central Nebraska. * WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Hazardous driving conditions due to reduced visibility. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A plume of blowing dust has been moving from southwest to northeast across the eastern part of the Hastings forecast area this afternoon with several reports of lowered visibility. Southwesterly winds ahead of a cold front will shift to the northwest over the next few hours. This will push the dust from northwest to southeast. Be prepared for rapidly changing visibility due to blowing dust. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.