Clinton Posted April 17, 2022 Report Share Posted April 17, 2022 I wanted to group these storms together due to the size of the forum and how close they are together. The first of the 2 could be a significant severe weather producer for eastern Nebraska and points south and east. The GFS has this for storm #1 Storm # 2 is more exciting as the drought areas could get their best precipitation event in over 6 months. 10 day precip total for the GFS and Euro. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 17, 2022 Report Share Posted April 17, 2022 2 hours ago, Clinton said: I wanted to group these storms together due to the size of the forum and how close they are together. The first of the 2 could be a significant severe weather producer for eastern Nebraska and points south and east. The GFS has this for storm #1 Storm # 2 is more exciting as the drought areas could get their best precipitation event in over 6 months. 10 day precip total for the GFS and Euro. Great work Clinton. Last decent rain event here was late September. Local paper says a little over 1.0” of precipitation total from November 1- April 16. Just really unbelievable. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 17, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: Great work Clinton. Last decent rain event here was late September. Local paper says a little over 1.0” of precipitation total from November 1- April 16. Just really unbelievable. The first of the 2 will likely split ya but the second storm should give you some good rain. It will take more than 1 storm to end the drought but I'm hoping this will maybe start an improving trend. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 17, 2022 Report Share Posted April 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, Clinton said: The first of the 2 will likely split ya but the second storm should give you some good rain. It will take more than 1 storm to end the drought but I'm hoping this will maybe start an improving trend. We are so many inches behind, it will take months to make up. It is never good going into to planting season in a major deficit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted April 18, 2022 Report Share Posted April 18, 2022 Very colorful 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 18, 2022 Day 5 severe risk should kick off a very active stretch. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 18, 2022 Report Share Posted April 18, 2022 Thanks Clinton...wrt to the Winter side of things, it looks like Minot, ND will be riding the fine line with this one but just W & N get rocked. The Glacier will continue to build up that way....just incredible... @Clinton...you'll need a canoe the next 10 days...and that goes for KC and MW crew.... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 18, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 18, 2022 19 minutes ago, Tom said: Thanks Clinton...wrt to the Winter side of things, it looks like Minot, ND will be riding the fine line with this one but just W & N get rocked. The Glacier will continue to build up that way....just incredible... @Clinton...you'll need a canoe the next 10 days...and that goes for KC and MW crew.... Models are really showing big rain totals for mby. Severe weather will really crank up this weekend. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 18, 2022 Report Share Posted April 18, 2022 Models not looking good around here, broken record, for any significant moisture. Our church will have a prayer vigil tomorrow night to pray for rain. People are realizing this is going to be a devastating situation for a region that relies 100% on agriculture. This will impact all business. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 18, 2022 Report Share Posted April 18, 2022 12 hours ago, Tom said: Thanks Clinton...wrt to the Winter side of things, it looks like Minot, ND will be riding the fine line with this one but just W & N get rocked. The Glacier will continue to build up that way....just incredible... @Clinton...you'll need a canoe the next 10 days...and that goes for KC and MW crew.... I get oofed as well Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted April 18, 2022 Report Share Posted April 18, 2022 3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said: Models not looking good around here, broken record, for any significant moisture. Our church will have a prayer vigil tomorrow night to pray for rain. People are realizing this is going to be a devastating situation for a region that relies 100% on agriculture. This will impact all business. Awwww this is so awful. I can’t believe how bad it’s getting there. Isn’t May/June usually your best months though for precip? Hope you know everyone in here is rooting for you!! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 18, 2022 Report Share Posted April 18, 2022 4 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said: Models not looking good around here, broken record, for any significant moisture. Our church will have a prayer vigil tomorrow night to pray for rain. People are realizing this is going to be a devastating situation for a region that relies 100% on agriculture. This will impact all business. It really seems like that were going back into the 1930s, when the weather was COMPLETELY against us. Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 18, 2022 Report Share Posted April 18, 2022 42 minutes ago, Jaycee said: Awwww this is so awful. I can’t believe how bad it’s getting there. Isn’t May/June usually your best months though for precip? Hope you know everyone in here is rooting for you!! Thanks for the kind words. March usually has a big storm or two. April- June typically are the best. July can deliver with large thunderstorms or totally dry. We’ve had dry stretches before, but never that I can remember going on 6 months 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 19, 2022 Little bit of a battle going on with the models as to how much precip falls on the western side of the forum. 0z Euro 0z CMC 6z GFS sucks for Neb. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 19, 2022 @CentralNebWeatherare you here much from your office about this set-up for Friday? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 19, 2022 Report Share Posted April 19, 2022 I may get drenched next week, NWS-Tulsa is thinking 3-4 inches of rain when it's all set & done Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 19, 2022 Report Share Posted April 19, 2022 2 hours ago, Clinton said: @CentralNebWeatherare you here much from your office about this set-up for Friday? They think it stays east. They’re pretty pessimistic that if we don’t get something Friday, we’ll not get anything in April. It would be one of the driest April’s in history following record dry November, December, January, February, and March in this area. NWS says the dreaded dry slot looks to plague us once again. Even the most optimistic people I know are concerned about the impact this drought will have. #drought2022 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 19, 2022 12z GFS has a stalled or slowly sinking cold front over mby for the weekend. It could bring several chances for severe weather and way to much rain. Completely screws Nebraska, just unbelievably terrible. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 19, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 19, 2022 CMC does better for Nebraska Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 19, 2022 Report Share Posted April 19, 2022 26 minutes ago, Clinton said: CMC does better for Nebraska Unfortunately, the CMC has usually been wrong around here. GFS has almost always been correct, though badly, for us. Until I see a consensus, I'd probably side with the GFS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 19, 2022 Report Share Posted April 19, 2022 This is basically the last 6 1/2 months of what has transpired if you just look at this one model. The 12Z UKIE with another kick in the shorts. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted April 19, 2022 Report Share Posted April 19, 2022 It looks like the only chance for appreciable precip is in the far eastern edge of the state, even east of Lincoln. The past several years has been a string of dry Aprils at LNK, but previous years were not already as a dry as a bone. May almost always comes in clutch, so if the dry pattern continues though then we're probably extra screwed. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 19, 2022 Report Share Posted April 19, 2022 52 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said: It looks like the only chance for appreciable precip is in the far eastern edge of the state, even east of Lincoln. The past several years has been a string of dry Aprils at LNK, but previous years were not already as a dry as a bone. May almost always comes in clutch, so if the dry pattern continues though then we're probably extra screwed. My father in law and brother in law farm east of town. They have about 3000 acres of corn and soybeans along with 150 head of cattle. They don't know how a crop with be able to come out of the ground unless they turn on their irrigation systems. They begin planting next Monday. They are very concerned about costs and will they get a crop that can make any money. Also putting off any equipment purchases for the foreseeable future. That then affects local agricultural businesses relying on farmers to purchase equipment. Bad news everywhere. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 19, 2022 Report Share Posted April 19, 2022 The WPC has 4-6 inches of rain for Oklahoma & Missouri, but almost nothing in Nebraska, stupid dry slot! 2 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 19, 2022 Report Share Posted April 19, 2022 21 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: The WPC has 4-6 inches of rain for Oklahoma & Missouri, but almost nothing in Nebraska, stupid dry slot! I saw that. We've been dry slotted some over the years, but I don't remember anything like this year. How long has it been since we've had a low come out of SE Colorado and travel across KS to the St. Joseph MO area. That is our perfect moisture scenario path. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 19, 2022 Report Share Posted April 19, 2022 30 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: I saw that. We've been dry slotted some over the years, but I don't remember anything like this year. How long has it been since we've had a low come out of SE Colorado and travel across KS to the St. Joseph MO area. That is our perfect moisture scenario path. Best one was in 2019, but there must be a certain pattern that is refusing to break. 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 20, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 20, 2022 Severe weather risk crank up a notch tomorrow as the warm front lift north. How far north will it lift? Day 3 Day 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 20, 2022 Report Share Posted April 20, 2022 The storms tried to fire off, but they're dying. Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 20, 2022 Report Share Posted April 20, 2022 First 90°F day of 2022 today at my house 1 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 21, 2022 Report Share Posted April 21, 2022 Good call on keeping it going until the 28th, Saturday has some potential. Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 21, 2022 Report Share Posted April 21, 2022 What could possibly go wrong? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 21, 2022 46 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: What could possibly go wrong? 3KM NAM has a nice line developing, fits with the SPC forecast. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 21, 2022 Enhanced risk issued tomorrow, hope it translates into some rain for Nebraska. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 21, 2022 Temps will rise to around 80 in my area Saturday and will create my best chance of severe weather so far this spring. SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday through Saturday night in a corridor from parts of the Upper Midwest into the southeastern Great Plains. This may include a risk for tornadoes, in addition to hail and strong wind gusts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 21, 2022 Report Share Posted April 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Clinton said: Enhanced risk issued tomorrow, hope it translates into some rain for Nebraska. NWS Hastings mentions wind and hail primarily. Local forecast says maybe 0.25-0.50”. I’d error on the low end during a drought, and hope for more. Going on close to 7 months of this, I remain pessimistic until a major pattern change occurs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 21, 2022 Report Share Posted April 21, 2022 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 21, 2022 50 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: Short range models looking better for your area. 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 21, 2022 Report Share Posted April 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Clinton said: Short range models looking better for your area. That would be wonderful. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 21, 2022 12 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: That would be wonderful. FV3 coming around, hopefully it's not a broken line of storms where some get missed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 21, 2022 Report Share Posted April 21, 2022 You ready @hawkstwelve Looks like your first legitimate severe threat of severe of the season. I always like being downstream from convective initiation. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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