Iceresistance Posted April 21, 2022 Report Share Posted April 21, 2022 5 hours ago, Clinton said: Temps will rise to around 80 in my area Saturday and will create my best chance of severe weather so far this spring. SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday through Saturday night in a corridor from parts of the Upper Midwest into the southeastern Great Plains. This may include a risk for tornadoes, in addition to hail and strong wind gusts. I get some action as well 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 21, 2022 Report Share Posted April 21, 2022 18 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: I've been on the fringes the past couple rounds. Nice to see the action closer to home. Crossing my fingers! Latest ECMWF maxes out the flash rate with the line coming through tomorrow evening. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 21, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 21, 2022 44 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: I get some action as well Lots of wind headed your way. Could have some supercells in your area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 21, 2022 Report Share Posted April 21, 2022 Another Blizzard Warning for Western North Dakota 2 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 21, 2022 Report Share Posted April 21, 2022 2 hours ago, Clinton said: Lots of wind headed your way. Could have some supercells in your area. I know! The Dew Points are higher than normal right now, it feels like June outside. One of the storm systems will overperform here, but which one? 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 21, 2022 Report Share Posted April 21, 2022 27 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Another Blizzard Warning for Western North Dakota Life just isn't fair this year. We are just hoping for a little rain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 21, 2022 Report Share Posted April 21, 2022 Just another potentially horrendous weather day. Too many of these to count. Fires and dust storms possible. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 21, 2022 Report Share Posted April 21, 2022 16 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: Life just isn't fair this year. We are just hoping for a little rain. There's an Enhanced risk of Severe Storms for your area tomorrow, so maybe? 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted April 21, 2022 Report Share Posted April 21, 2022 Yeesh! BLIZZARD TO IMPACT NORTHEAST WYOMING TO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND... .A robust spring storm will bring heavy snow accumulations and very strong winds this weekend to portions of northeastern Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota, including the northern Black Hills. Heavy snow of 10 to 18 inches is expected across northeast Wyoming, along with northwest wind gusts over 65 mph. Heavy snow and wind gusts to 75 mph are expected across northwest South Dakota. This will result in white out conditions across these areas and the northern Foothills. The northern Black Hills will see significant snowfall of up 20 inches with locally higher amounts, but winds will be weaker than across the surrounding plains. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 21, 2022 Report Share Posted April 21, 2022 44 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: Yeesh! BLIZZARD TO IMPACT NORTHEAST WYOMING TO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND... .A robust spring storm will bring heavy snow accumulations and very strong winds this weekend to portions of northeastern Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota, including the northern Black Hills. Heavy snow of 10 to 18 inches is expected across northeast Wyoming, along with northwest wind gusts over 65 mph. Heavy snow and wind gusts to 75 mph are expected across northwest South Dakota. This will result in white out conditions across these areas and the northern Foothills. The northern Black Hills will see significant snowfall of up 20 inches with locally higher amounts, but winds will be weaker than across the surrounding plains. Man, I’d give a finger to experience conditions like that here. Well, maybe… 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted April 22, 2022 Report Share Posted April 22, 2022 The elevated showers and storms forecasted for tonight have already rapidly developed. They're already putting down pea sized hail with the brief downpours. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 22, 2022 Report Share Posted April 22, 2022 2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said: The elevated showers and storms forecasted for tonight have already rapidly developed. They're already putting down pea sized hail with the brief downpours. The storms forecasted for tonight aren't supposed to hit until 130-330 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 22, 2022 Report Share Posted April 22, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted April 22, 2022 Report Share Posted April 22, 2022 Went from marginal risk with maybe some hail to a watch with risk up to 2” hail 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted April 22, 2022 Report Share Posted April 22, 2022 Currently 60° with a 61% relative humidity reading. It would be pretty disappointing if I don’t get something out of this line of storms moving off to the north east… 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 22, 2022 Report Share Posted April 22, 2022 1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said: 00z 3km NAM develops a line over NW Nebraska/Kansas, then it completely fizzles out by the time it hits central SD, and then another line forms over Iowa/Minnesota. That would be a little frustrating if it actually works out like that. 3km NAM is atrocious with convection 90% of the time out here. The other 10% it nails it perfectly. No in between. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 22, 2022 Report Share Posted April 22, 2022 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 22, 2022 No significant changes from the SPC. Good luck to @CentralNebWeatherI hope you can get a nice line to blow through. Looks like some violent storms will be possible. ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of the Great Plains into Upper Midwest Friday from late this afternoon through tonight. Supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes and very large hail, are possible, particularly from the Texas Panhandle into north-central Nebraska. ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest... An upper-level trough will quickly move eastward through the Desert Southwest today as a 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet moves through the base of the trough. Moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will be in place by afternoon, making conditions favorable for organized severe storms. At the surface, a low will rapidly deepen across northeastern Colorado today, and move north-northeastward into western Nebraska. A warm front extending eastward from the low will advance northward across Nebraska this afternoon and into southern South Dakota this evening. As low-level convergence increases near and to the north of the surface low during the late afternoon, convection will likely initiate and move north-northeastward across northwestern Nebraska and southwestern South Dakota. Convective coverage is expected to rapidly increase across the northern Plains during the evening as the exit region of the mid-level jet moves into the area from the southwest. The current thinking is that a line of strong to severe storms will move eastward through western Nebraska and western South Dakota during the evening, with supercells developing ahead of the line further to the east. NAM Forecast soundings at Valentine, Nebraska near the peak of instability early this evening have a loaded gun profile with MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range. This along with lapse rates approaching 8.0 C/km in the 700 to 500 mb layer will be favorable for supercells with large hail. In addition, hodographs are long and looped with 0-3 km storm relative helicities near 400 m2/s2. This will be favorable for tornadoes as well with the more dominant cells, especially as the low-level jet ramps up quickly during the early evening. Wind damage will also be possible. The threat should persist through the evening and into the early overnight period as storms move east-northeastward into the eastern Dakotas late in the period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 22, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 22, 2022 Lots of uncertainty with severe activity Saturday and Saturday night but Iowa and Minnesota could see some big storms near the triple point. If the dry line can ignite then many of us could see big storms further south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 22, 2022 Report Share Posted April 22, 2022 Make that 3. Our Middle School track meet for today has been cancelled due to the forecasted winds of 60 MPH and potential blowing dust. That is 3 track meets at our school cancelled this spring due to wind and dust. Never have seen this before. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted April 22, 2022 Report Share Posted April 22, 2022 Ended up with a whopping .10” of rain last night. Thankfully not a huge deal here since we’re doing ok for moisture right now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted April 22, 2022 Report Share Posted April 22, 2022 Shocker, the storms rode the river and stayed to the north of it. I ended up with .15". Reports of 1-3" of rain match up pretty nicely with the radar. The black line is the platte river; the evidence I'm gathering is remarkable with how that dang platte river plays a large part in the direction of storms. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 22, 2022 Report Share Posted April 22, 2022 17 minutes ago, gabel23 said: Shocker, the storms rode the river and stayed to the north of it. I ended up with .15". Reports of 1-3" of rain match up pretty nicely with the radar. The black line is the platte river; the evidence I'm gathering is remarkable with how that dang platte river plays a large part in the direction of storms. My goodness. We have joked that our phenomenon is called the Phelps County Dome. Amazing that the Platte can impact local weather so much. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted April 22, 2022 Report Share Posted April 22, 2022 19 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: My goodness. We have joked that our phenomenon is called the Phelps County Dome. Amazing that the Platte can impact local weather so much. I have a folder of images, snow reports, rain reports and radar images from the past 5 years and it's crazy how well they line up with that river! I'm hoping tonights storms can hold together and march east and give us all a little something. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 22, 2022 Report Share Posted April 22, 2022 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted April 22, 2022 Report Share Posted April 22, 2022 81 with a dewpoint of 66. Now this feels like spring! Too bad we get nothing out of the soup today though... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 22, 2022 Report Share Posted April 22, 2022 Looks like that Saturday's Setup for Oklahoma & Kansas is non conditional for now. Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 22, 2022 Report Share Posted April 22, 2022 Seems the lack of boundary layer moisture might be an inhibiting factor for convection with this system. Need to moisten up the biosphere with some rain. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted April 23, 2022 Report Share Posted April 23, 2022 @CentralNebWeather yet again another major going on. Just insane. Cambridge just missed but Bartley and Indianola being evacuated. Here it is on radar an hour ago! Radar down in Hastings. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted April 23, 2022 Report Share Posted April 23, 2022 No way stopping this. 1 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 23, 2022 Report Share Posted April 23, 2022 13 minutes ago, gabel23 said: @CentralNebWeather yet again another major going on. Just insane. Cambridge just missed but Bartley and Indianola being evacuated. Here it is on radar an hour ago! Radar down in Hastings. Just saw they are evacuating a campground by Cambridge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 23, 2022 Report Share Posted April 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said: Just saw they are evacuating a campground by Cambridge. There is a fast moving storm going over the fire, could that put it out or reduce it by a lot? Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 23, 2022 Report Share Posted April 23, 2022 18 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: There is a fast moving storm going over the fire, could that put it out or reduce it by a lot? Great question. I’m not finding much information about it yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 23, 2022 Report Share Posted April 23, 2022 29 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: There is a fast moving storm going over the fire, could that put it out or reduce it by a lot? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 23, 2022 Report Share Posted April 23, 2022 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 23, 2022 Report Share Posted April 23, 2022 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 23, 2022 Report Share Posted April 23, 2022 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted April 23, 2022 Report Share Posted April 23, 2022 Just checking out the models for tomorrow and it looks like I might head down towards SE Neb or NE KS tomorrow afternoon/evening. Most of the models show pretty nice looking soundings with TONS of low level CAPE. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 23, 2022 Report Share Posted April 23, 2022 1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said: Well tonight turned into a giant nothingburger and chances don't look too great for here tomorrow. On to the next one. Have you found a permanent place of residence yet? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 23, 2022 Report Share Posted April 23, 2022 By Cambridge Nebraska last evening. 1 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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