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April 22nd-25th back to back storms with a potential blizzard, severe weather and drought relief.


Clinton

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5 hours ago, Clinton said:

Temps will rise to around 80 in my area Saturday and will create my best chance of severe weather so far this spring.

image.png.8246c44de2f0cea4776f6c025245e21a.png

SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday through Saturday night in
   a corridor from parts of the Upper Midwest into the southeastern
   Great Plains.  This may include a risk for tornadoes, in addition to
   hail and strong wind gusts.

I get some action as well

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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18 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I've been on the fringes the past couple rounds. Nice to see the action closer to home.

Crossing my fingers!

Latest ECMWF maxes out the flash rate with the line coming through tomorrow evening.

8B2EC09C-D66F-438F-A6B3-335DEDB49B00.png

  • Storm 2
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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Lots of wind headed your way.  Could have some supercells in your area.

I know! The Dew Points are higher than normal right now, it feels like June outside.

 

One of the storm systems will overperform here, but which one?

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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16 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Life just isn't fair this year.  We are just hoping for a little rain.

There's an Enhanced risk of Severe Storms for your area tomorrow, so maybe?

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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Yeesh!

BLIZZARD TO IMPACT NORTHEAST WYOMING TO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
THIS WEEKEND...

.A robust spring storm will bring heavy snow accumulations and
very strong winds this weekend to portions of northeastern
Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota, including the northern
Black Hills. Heavy snow of 10 to 18 inches is expected across
northeast Wyoming, along with northwest wind gusts over 65 mph.
Heavy snow and wind gusts to 75 mph are expected across northwest
South Dakota. This will result in white out conditions across
these areas and the northern Foothills. The northern Black Hills
will see significant snowfall of up 20 inches with locally higher
amounts, but winds will be weaker than across the surrounding
plains.
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  • Snow 1
  • scream 1
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44 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Yeesh!

BLIZZARD TO IMPACT NORTHEAST WYOMING TO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
THIS WEEKEND...

.A robust spring storm will bring heavy snow accumulations and
very strong winds this weekend to portions of northeastern
Wyoming and northwestern South Dakota, including the northern
Black Hills. Heavy snow of 10 to 18 inches is expected across
northeast Wyoming, along with northwest wind gusts over 65 mph.
Heavy snow and wind gusts to 75 mph are expected across northwest
South Dakota. This will result in white out conditions across
these areas and the northern Foothills. The northern Black Hills
will see significant snowfall of up 20 inches with locally higher
amounts, but winds will be weaker than across the surrounding
plains.

Man, I’d give a finger to experience conditions like that here.

Well, maybe…

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2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

The elevated showers and storms forecasted for tonight have already rapidly developed. They're already putting down pea sized hail with the brief downpours.

The storms forecasted for tonight aren't supposed to hit until 130-330

 

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

00z 3km NAM develops a line over NW Nebraska/Kansas, then it completely fizzles out by the time it hits central SD, and then another line forms over Iowa/Minnesota. 

That would be a little frustrating if it actually works out like that.

82ee67eb-9f4b-4712-aa85-0e62ee956907.gif

3km NAM is atrocious with convection 90% of the time out here. The other 10% it nails it perfectly. No in between. :lol: 

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No significant changes from the SPC.  Good luck to @CentralNebWeatherI hope you can get a nice line to blow through.  Looks like some violent storms will be possible. 

image.png.ead8f24051602ad85e2e32dea6b44b03.png

 

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of the
   Great Plains into Upper Midwest Friday from late this afternoon
   through tonight. Supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe
   hazards, including tornadoes and very large hail, are possible,
   particularly from the Texas Panhandle into north-central Nebraska.
   ...Northern Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest...
   An upper-level trough will quickly move eastward through the Desert
   Southwest today as a 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet moves through the
   base of the trough. Moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear
   will be in place by afternoon, making conditions favorable for
   organized severe storms. At the surface, a low will rapidly deepen
   across northeastern Colorado today, and move north-northeastward
   into western Nebraska. A warm front extending eastward from the low
   will advance northward across Nebraska this afternoon and into
   southern South Dakota this evening. As low-level convergence
   increases near and to the north of the surface low during the late
   afternoon, convection will likely initiate and move
   north-northeastward across northwestern Nebraska and southwestern
   South Dakota. Convective coverage is expected to rapidly increase
   across the northern Plains during the evening as the exit region of
   the mid-level jet moves into the area from the southwest. The
   current thinking is that a line of strong to severe storms will move
   eastward through western Nebraska and western South Dakota during
   the evening, with supercells developing ahead of the line further to
   the east.

   NAM Forecast soundings at Valentine, Nebraska near the peak of
   instability early this evening have a loaded gun profile with MLCAPE
   in the 2500 to 3000 J/kg range. This along with lapse rates
   approaching 8.0 C/km in the 700 to 500 mb layer will be favorable
   for supercells with large hail. In addition, hodographs are long and
   looped with 0-3 km storm relative helicities near 400 m2/s2. This
   will be favorable for tornadoes as well with the more dominant
   cells, especially as the low-level jet ramps up quickly during the
   early evening. Wind damage will also be possible. The threat should
   persist through the evening and into the early overnight period as
   storms move east-northeastward into the eastern Dakotas late in the
   period.
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Shocker, the storms rode the river and stayed to the north of it. I ended up with .15". Reports of 1-3" of rain match up pretty nicely with the radar. The black line is the platte river; the evidence I'm gathering is remarkable with how that dang platte river plays a large part in the direction of storms. 

april 22, 2022.png

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17 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Shocker, the storms rode the river and stayed to the north of it. I ended up with .15". Reports of 1-3" of rain match up pretty nicely with the radar. The black line is the platte river; the evidence I'm gathering is remarkable with how that dang platte river plays a large part in the direction of storms. 

april 22, 2022.png

My goodness.  We have joked that our phenomenon is called the Phelps County Dome.  Amazing that the Platte can impact local weather so much.  

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19 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

My goodness.  We have joked that our phenomenon is called the Phelps County Dome.  Amazing that the Platte can impact local weather so much.  

I have a folder of images, snow reports, rain reports and radar images from the past 5 years and it's crazy how well they line up with that river! I'm hoping tonights storms can hold together and march east and give us all a little something. 

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Seems the lack of boundary layer moisture might be an inhibiting factor for convection with this system. Need to moisten up the biosphere with some rain.

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3 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Just saw they are evacuating a campground by Cambridge. 

There is a fast moving storm going over the fire, could that put it out or reduce it by a lot?

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Well tonight turned into a giant nothingburger and chances don't look too great for here tomorrow.

On to the next one.

Have you found a permanent place of residence yet?

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