Iceresistance Posted April 24, 2022 Report Share Posted April 24, 2022 The models are going crazy with the next system, the thermodynamics are very favorable for Supercells in Oklahoma, Kansas, & maybe Nebraska, the WPC is saying that a good portion of Nebraska will get over an inch of rain. The CIPS analogs are suggesting that the highest instability is in Central Oklahoma (Of course) 3 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 25, 2022 Report Share Posted April 25, 2022 SPC already looking at Day 5 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 25, 2022 Report Share Posted April 25, 2022 The models are going bonkers with this storm system and I love tracking these slow moving bowling balls. Man, you gotta hand it up to mother nature bc when the blocking up in the arctic sets up it really delivers the goods for our Sub. @Clinton, what is Gary thinking for the summer season? Good amount of rain? I think so. Should be a good growing season, but I'm more worried about W TX up through W KS/CO. This area will see storms, esp when the Monsoon kicks in July/Aug. It should be a banner year for the SW...I'm really interested to see how that develops later in the Summer. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 25, 2022 Report Share Posted April 25, 2022 16 minutes ago, Tom said: The models are going bonkers with this storm system and I love tracking these slow moving bowling balls. Man, you gotta hand it up to mother nature bc when the blocking up in the arctic sets up it really delivers the goods for our Sub. @Clinton, what is Gary thinking for the summer season? Good amount of rain? I think so. Should be a good growing season, but I'm more worried about W TX up through W KS/CO. This area will see storms, esp when the Monsoon kicks in July/Aug. It should be a banner year for the SW...I'm really interested to see how that develops later in the Summer. I haven't heard his summer forecast if he gave it I missed it. I know he thinks May will be well above average rainfall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 25, 2022 @OKwx2k4 & I are under a Slight Risk for Severe storms Friday. But I won't be in Oklahoma on Friday, I'm going to be in Florida for nearly 2 weeks. It's just out of range for @Andie Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 25, 2022 Goodness, this sounding is over OKC on the 12z GFS for Friday 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted April 25, 2022 Report Share Posted April 25, 2022 That’s fine with me. We got a good rain. We’ll drop down to 50* tonight and it’s April 25th! Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 25, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 25, 2022 13 minutes ago, Andie said: That’s fine with me. We got a good rain. We’ll drop down to 50* tonight and it’s April 25th! Down to 42°F for OKC expected tonight. Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 26, 2022 Report Share Posted April 26, 2022 The risk area for Friday has been expanded. Our area has been quiet on the severe front the last few years it may be about to get going. An upper trough will extend from the northern Intermountain region to the southern Rockies Friday morning. The strongest mid/upper flow associated with trough is expected to be on the back side of the wave as it slides eastward into the Plains. With time, a closed upper low is forecast to develop over the northern/central Plains, though forecast guidance varies on when/where the closed low evolves. This is resulting in some uncertainty as this will impact where strong large-scale ascent is focus, as well as where stronger vertical shear will be located. Nevertheless, a favorable low-level pattern will emerge across the central/southern Plains as a lee cyclone deepens and shifts east across western KS, with another low developing along the NE/SD border. A surface dryline will extend southward from central KS into central TX by 00z. Ahead of the dryline, mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place as far north as central KS, with low 60s F dewpoints extending into eastern NE. Strong heating and steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization. Given uncertainty in where stronger large-scale ascent will be focused, thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain. But, at least isolated supercells are expected across eastern/central KS/OK and perhaps north Texas. All severe hazards will be possible with these storms. Further north toward northeast KS and eastern NE, a cold front will surge east/southeast during the late afternoon/evening while a warm front resides across the lower MO Valley. Additional convection is expected to develop near the surface low and along the warm front in strong warm advection from eastern NE into western MO. Storm mode may quickly become messy in this regime, but potential for all severe hazards may exist. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 26, 2022 Report Share Posted April 26, 2022 Rainfall amounts through the weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 26, 2022 Report Share Posted April 26, 2022 I thought this was a fun run off last nights 0z GFS...."Choo-Choo!" #wavetrain...follow the leader... 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 26, 2022 Report Share Posted April 26, 2022 This storm and the one behind it look to deliver a good deal of rainfall for mby. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted April 26, 2022 Report Share Posted April 26, 2022 5 hours ago, Tom said: I thought this was a fun run off last nights 0z GFS...."Choo-Choo!" #wavetrain...follow the leader... "Fun run" from sunny AZ. This can stay away from mby. Sure don't need the moisture and dbl don't need more cloudy days. Got those coming out our tailpipe so far this spring. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 26, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 26, 2022 @CentralNebWeatherThe WPC is showing a statewide rainfall event next week (Day 6) for Nebraska, some parts could get 2 inches before it's all set and done. 2 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted April 26, 2022 Report Share Posted April 26, 2022 Day 6. LOL @ hour 6 I'd be worried 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 26, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 26, 2022 Look at this! Guess I may need to extend the storm chances to May. 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 26, 2022 Report Share Posted April 26, 2022 Right now, local forecasts call for 70-80% chance of rain and thunderstorms Friday, Friday night, into Saturday morning. We host our annual high school track meet beginning at 1 PM Friday. Would hate to see another meet cancelled, as three so far have been lost to wind and dust. I don't think there would be too many complaints if we get rain Friday. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 27, 2022 Report Share Posted April 27, 2022 Friday continues to o look more interesting. NE/KS into the Lower MO Valley... Forecast guidance indicates a strong midlevel cap will erode by late afternoon amid increasing ascent and low-level moist advection. Backed low-level winds near the triple point will result in enlarged low-level hodographs with forecast effective shear magnitudes around 35-45 kt. Backed low-level flow will also enhance low-level shear, with SRH values increasing to greater than 250 m2/s2. This will be favorable for rotating supercells, and a few tornadoes are possible. Very steep midlevel lapse rates and MLCAPE as high as 2500 J/kg will support large to very large hail. Initial supercell activity may eventually grow into clusters as the cold front surges east during the evening, resulting in a potential transition toward damaging gusts and hail as convection spreads east/northeast into parts of the MO Valley 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 27, 2022 Report Share Posted April 27, 2022 I have questions whether it will warm up and create enough instability here on Friday for severe weather to cross the state line but rainfall continues to look impressive over the next week. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 27, 2022 Slight Risk madness through May 2nd now 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 27, 2022 Report Share Posted April 27, 2022 The Euro trends towards the GFS and the wave train "Choo Choo" appears to be tracking smack dab across the central ag belt. You can thank the blocking....the heavens will open up... 0z Euro next 10 days... 4 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 27, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 27, 2022 If Big Joe B is saying this, RUN! 4 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 28, 2022 Report Share Posted April 28, 2022 12 hours ago, Tom said: The Euro trends towards the GFS and the wave train "Choo Choo" appears to be tracking smack dab across the central ag belt. You can thank the blocking....the heavens will open up... 0z Euro next 10 days... GFS agrees the middle of the country is about to become a lake. 1 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 28, 2022 Report Share Posted April 28, 2022 This mornings GFS still looks good for Nebraska over the next 7 days. Best part is that it doesn't all come at one time. The ground should be able to take most of it. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted April 28, 2022 Report Share Posted April 28, 2022 This is the best display of streak lightning I have seen in at least 2 years. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 28, 2022 Report Share Posted April 28, 2022 29 minutes ago, Bellona said: This is the best display of streak lightning I have seen in at least 2 years. No attachment... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 28, 2022 Report Share Posted April 28, 2022 2 hours ago, Clinton said: This mornings GFS still looks good for Nebraska over the next 7 days. Best part is that it doesn't all come at one time. The ground should be able to take most of it. Wow. That would be tremendous. Our church has continued prayer vigils for rain. Hallelujah. 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2022 2 inches of rain is expected for parts of Nebraska tomorrow. @CentralNebWeather may get up to 1 inch with a Marginal Risk of Flooding. 4 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted April 28, 2022 Report Share Posted April 28, 2022 12Z HRRR shows storms forming over/near Omaha this evening and lasting for several hours. In fact it shows nearly 7" of rainfall in northern Douglas County (where I live) under the "O" and the "M" on the map. Maybe some good lightning picture opportunities as I am floating away to the Missouri River..... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 28, 2022 Report Share Posted April 28, 2022 Noisy storms moving over right now, should continue through the afternoon. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2022 Goodness! This is the Days 1-7 Rainfall from the WPC 3 2 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2022 Most of Nebraska is under a Marginal Risk of severe storms, a Slight Risk does show up for Western Nebraska. 1 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted April 28, 2022 Report Share Posted April 28, 2022 I'll be out chasing tomorrow. Still not totally sold on a big day, but any day chasing is better than a day working. I'm feeling lucky and am tentatively planning on chasing the dry line down into Kansas vs staying closer to home near the warm front. Storms are more likely up here but feel they will get messy right away. Hoping something pops the cap down south and is isolated and puts on a great show out in the fields of Kansas. Then on my way home I will probably run into the squall line that will form along the crashing cold front, so maybe some good nighttime lightning opportunities. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 28, 2022 Report Share Posted April 28, 2022 10 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said: I'll be out chasing tomorrow. Still not totally sold on a big day, but any day chasing is better than a day working. I'm feeling lucky and am tentatively planning on chasing the dry line down into Kansas vs staying closer to home near the warm front. Storms are more likely up here but feel they will get messy right away. Hoping something pops the cap down south and is isolated and puts on a great show out in the fields of Kansas. Then on my way home I will probably run into the squall line that will form along the crashing cold front, so maybe some good nighttime lightning opportunities. I'm worried the cap may keep storms from forming until after dark in Kansas. If they pop earlier the Topeka down to Wichita area will be explosive. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2022 19 minutes ago, Clinton said: I'm worried the cap may keep storms from forming until after dark in Kansas. If they pop earlier the Topeka down to Wichita area will be explosive. Also factor Oklahoma, one Mesoscale model had a Supercell over the OKC Metro 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2022 It appears that May 2nd could become another big one, GEFS is trending upwards. 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 28, 2022 Report Share Posted April 28, 2022 32 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: It appears that May 2nd could become another big one, GEFS is trending upwards. It looks good for Oklahoma City to have some big storms then especially if the timing can hold. Looks like a lot of rain up my way with that storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Clinton said: It looks good for Oklahoma City to have some big storms then especially if the timing can hold. Looks like a lot of rain up my way with that storm. I'm going to be in Orlando when that happens, but never worry! I'll be watching from afar! 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2022 BIG Supercell south of Holdrege, NE Flood Advisory for that storm 2 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted April 28, 2022 Report Share Posted April 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Clinton said: I'm worried the cap may keep storms from forming until after dark in Kansas. If they pop earlier the Topeka down to Wichita area will be explosive. SPC almost seems certain the cap will break but I don’t like seeing pretty much none of the models having any storms along the dry line 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.