Jump to content

April 27th- May 9th | Tornado Outbreak Sequence


Iceresistance

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

20 miles south of me in Alma. 2” hail and torrential downpours. I’m getting some nice rain here as things keep developing. Very thankful for the moisture 

It appears that the Convective Feedback did the trick for Holdridge to get rainfall.

  • Like 2

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I’ve had some little pingers of hail, but nothing too bad. Nice showers keep developing and moving through. We actually have puddles. Honestly, we haven’t had this since October. Probably 0.25” so far as it continues. 

I did not see any puddles from Summer 2021 to April 2022, I was excited to see them again!

  • Like 1

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

It appears that the Convective Feedback did the trick for Holdridge to get rainfall.

You are 100% correct. Our HS soccer team was hosting their final regular season game, and it looks like lightning and heavy rain will end the game at halftime, according to my son who was watching it and now he is running to his vehicle. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

The sky to the south of me is black. 

Could you take a Picture of the Supercell or a video of the lightning inside of it?

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

It is too far south now, and other storms are now moving through obscuring a good picture. 

Makes sense now that the others are obscuring it from a good view.

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Here is the best I can do from my front porch. Another cell is just coming through. What an evening.5A66ACE2-70F4-41C7-B5AC-2A8525E620D7.thumb.jpeg.ef23040f87130c678a1e749862b6004d.jpegE45994B6-7680-43C7-B2CA-382D1109F082.thumb.jpeg.3f63c619506d13e7e282322f1f1b39d0.jpeg9ED73657-5040-466F-934A-BC67AE1BBE09.thumb.jpeg.18eba38a0b4fd796141a7fc9e00cb4ca.jpeg

That thing looks mean even from that distance, I've also noticed the amount of Green Grass that is popping up as well.

  • Like 2

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

That thing looks mean even from that distance, I've also noticed the amount of Green Grass that is popping up as well.

Some yards are starting to look good. Mine has a ways to go with some yellow still showing up. The next week looks to really green things up. Some trees are also just starting to bud out. Probably will be a couple more weeks at least to see all trees leaf out. Behind the averages. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

KLNK has already picked up 0.67". Just <0.05" and a lightning show in SE Lincoln. We'll see if the stuff to the NW is far enough east in a couple hours. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The enhanced risk area for today was expanded further east.  A tornado outbreak after dark for Kansas, Oklahoma and possibly southern Nebraska is possible.   Not a fan of this don't want anyone to get hurt.  For mby a squall line with strong winds looks likely. 

image.png.ae17a87d56b89a5f6320430958086ec7.png

   Early this morning, slow-moving MCS has propagated into southeast NE
   with scattered convection trailing west, just north of the KS
   border. This activity is expected to gradually wane/shift east by
   daybreak. Stronger-forced convection is now responding to the short
   wave over the NE Panhandle and this activity should gradually spread
   east through late morning. Latest thinking is low-level moisture
   should hold across southern NE, just north of the surface low as
   easterly boundary-layer component in the wake of the ongoing MCS
   will persist across this region. With upper 50s/lower 60s surface
   dew points expected into portions of northwest KS, supercells should
   readily develop ahead of the approaching short wave by early
   afternoon. An expanding corridor of scattered supercells should
   spread along the NE/KS border within a strongly sheared environment
   characterized by MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings
   strongly suggest very large hail, in excess of 3 inches may be noted
   within this steep lapse-rate environment. Additionally, a few
   tornadoes appear likely with this activity, possibly even a strong
   tornado.

   Farther south along the dryline, intense surface heating should lead
   to minimal CINH by 21z and isolated supercells are expected to
   develop across KS into northern OK where mid-level height falls are
   expected. Models continue to suggest low-mid 60s surface dew points
   will be noted immediately ahead of the dryline which will result in
   a narrow corridor of 3000 J/kg SBCAPE. While model guidance produces
   minimal/no precipitation along the dryline south of I40 over OK into
   TX, low-level convergence along the boundary may prove adequate for
   sustained updrafts at lower latitudes. This portion of the outlook
   is highly conditional, but if storms develop they will be severe
   with very large hail (3-4 inch possible) along with a threat for
   tornadoes
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

The enhanced risk area for today was expanded further east.  A tornado outbreak after dark for Kansas, Oklahoma and possibly southern Nebraska is possible.   Not a fan of this don't want anyone to get hurt.  For mby a squall line with strong winds looks likely. 

image.png.ae17a87d56b89a5f6320430958086ec7.png

   Early this morning, slow-moving MCS has propagated into southeast NE
   with scattered convection trailing west, just north of the KS
   border. This activity is expected to gradually wane/shift east by
   daybreak. Stronger-forced convection is now responding to the short
   wave over the NE Panhandle and this activity should gradually spread
   east through late morning. Latest thinking is low-level moisture
   should hold across southern NE, just north of the surface low as
   easterly boundary-layer component in the wake of the ongoing MCS
   will persist across this region. With upper 50s/lower 60s surface
   dew points expected into portions of northwest KS, supercells should
   readily develop ahead of the approaching short wave by early
   afternoon. An expanding corridor of scattered supercells should
   spread along the NE/KS border within a strongly sheared environment
   characterized by MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings
   strongly suggest very large hail, in excess of 3 inches may be noted
   within this steep lapse-rate environment. Additionally, a few
   tornadoes appear likely with this activity, possibly even a strong
   tornado.

   Farther south along the dryline, intense surface heating should lead
   to minimal CINH by 21z and isolated supercells are expected to
   develop across KS into northern OK where mid-level height falls are
   expected. Models continue to suggest low-mid 60s surface dew points
   will be noted immediately ahead of the dryline which will result in
   a narrow corridor of 3000 J/kg SBCAPE. While model guidance produces
   minimal/no precipitation along the dryline south of I40 over OK into
   TX, low-level convergence along the boundary may prove adequate for
   sustained updrafts at lower latitudes. This portion of the outlook
   is highly conditional, but if storms develop they will be severe
   with very large hail (3-4 inch possible) along with a threat for
   tornadoes

Yikes!  This could be a dangerous situation....buckle up, things are going to get real bumpy over the next 5-7 days! 

The storm setting up for Mon could be even worse across KS and has that signature of a barreling squall line.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2.53" fell at LNK overnight, basically doubling the YTD total of 2.68". Yeah it's been dry lol. Lesser amounts in SE Lincoln, around 1" has fallen so far. 

  • Like 5

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

I’m concerned with the amount of cloud cover and morning storms that won’t make this evening activity not so active. We will see if we are able to clear out by noon 

Same, it's completely cloud-covered over I-40 near Okemah.

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

I’m concerned with the amount of cloud cover and morning storms that won’t make this evening activity not so active. We will see if we are able to clear out by noon 

Looks like the cap is building in, still plenty of time to warm up.  This last line of storms coming through my area are strong.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

I’m concerned with the amount of cloud cover and morning storms that won’t make this evening activity not so active. We will see if we are able to clear out by noon 

Sun is out here. Gonna be an interesting day for sure; I'm anxious to see if storms can stay discrete in my neck of the woods. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm fully in the cross hairs for significant severe weather later today, but I do think the most likely outcome for MBY is a severe wind and/or hail threat from a squall line in the 9 PM-1 AM time frame.

That said, the 12z FV3 does show a tornadic supercell moving through my area around 7 PM so I would be concerned about any discrete storms that form nearby primarily from 6-9 PM. Just something to keep an eye on.

If nothing else maybe I'll get my first tornado watch in almost three years.

  • Like 1

23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Happy hunting! This afternoon and evening looks interesting... and this looks like the spot to be in. 

Not saying it's gonna happen but that cell matches up very well with where two of the strongest tornadoes happened in Nebraska history. Jim Flowers also showed a similar path in his video today with what was shown in the models. 

Screen Shot 2022-04-29 at 2.10.00 PM.png

mar13tors2.png

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 5769

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    2. 5769

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    3. 5769

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    4. 5769

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

×
×
  • Create New...