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1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

 

During our travels in Montana, last week, we stayed with my wife's cousin and his wife.  She is the HR Director for a very high end resort in Montana ($3,000/guest/day kind of place).  She said their guest list includes a "who's who among current movie stars and celebrities."  She could not say who specifically due to NDAs but she said a lot of actors filming in the region inevitably end up spending time there.  The resort offer about every outdoor experience you can have in Montana: riding, fishing, shooting, mountain biking...the works, and of course staff accordingly.

They pay extremely well to get the best of the best, ensure that their people are happy and honor the NDA's they have in place.  She said it is an absolute dream job that she loves.  All employees are encouraged to use the facilities during their days off so that they can relate with guests about the experiences there at the ranch.  They get free lodging, meals, etc.  The relative (HR director) even got sent to another resort located in the Caribbean owned by the same company for 6 weeks, all expenses paid.  It was intended to share/exchange ideas about the running of these resorts.

 

She targets college aged kids/recent college graduates.  Normally, she gets hundreds of applicants beating down their door for each position.  It includes people who "rode a horse once when they were 5" want to be wranglers and people who "shot a gun once with their pappy when they were 9" wanting to be gunsmiths.

This year....crickets....they are struggling to get enough applicants to fill the open positions, and she has been on a nationwide recruiting campaign, going to job fairs at universities all over the countries.  She said she has talked to recruiters for "the competition" and they are having the same problem.

 

That really highlights the issue...I could understand McDonald's or Home Depot struggling to find employees (to an extent), but my discussion last week was a real eye opener.  Hell, the only reason I didn't apply for a job there myself (in their finance department) was because it was my son's senior year an I was still in school myself.  I did not have the bandwidth to go through a relocation, and I did not want to be moving during my son's senior year.

 

Something that occurred to me as I am typing this:  Are there really *that* many people working in the gig economy doing Lyft, Uber, Door Dash, etc?  Up here in Bellingham, we recently started getting pretty much all of our deliveries directly from Amazon.  Driving towards Seattle in the morning, I often pass a massive parade of Amazon delivery vans headed towards Bellingham, Burlington and Mt. Vernon.  Is that where all of the workers have disappeared to?

 

I think you're on to something. Apparently more than a third of all workers are part of the gig economy now - up tremendously from just a few years ago: https://fortunly.com/statistics/gig-economy-statistics/#:~:text=More than one-third of,their primary or secondary jobs.&text=This number comprises around 59,actually an alternative work arrangement.

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3 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

 

During our travels in Montana, last week, we stayed with my wife's cousin and his wife.  She is the HR Director for a very high end resort in Montana ($3,000/guest/day kind of place).  She said their guest list includes a "who's who among current movie stars and celebrities."  She could not say who specifically due to NDAs but she said a lot of actors filming in the region inevitably end up spending time there.  The resort offer about every outdoor experience you can have in Montana: riding, fishing, shooting, mountain biking...the works, and of course staff accordingly.

They pay extremely well to get the best of the best, ensure that their people are happy and honor the NDA's they have in place.  She said it is an absolute dream job that she loves.  All employees are encouraged to use the facilities during their days off so that they can relate with guests about the experiences there at the ranch.  They get free lodging, meals, etc.  The relative (HR director) even got sent to another resort located in the Caribbean owned by the same company for 6 weeks, all expenses paid.  It was intended to share/exchange ideas about the running of these resorts.

 

She targets college aged kids/recent college graduates.  Normally, she gets hundreds of applicants beating down their door for each position.  It includes people who "rode a horse once when they were 5" want to be wranglers and people who "shot a gun once with their pappy when they were 9" wanting to be gunsmiths.

This year....crickets....they are struggling to get enough applicants to fill the open positions, and she has been on a nationwide recruiting campaign, going to job fairs at universities all over the countries.  She said she has talked to recruiters for "the competition" and they are having the same problem.

 

That really highlights the issue...I could understand McDonald's or Home Depot struggling to find employees (to an extent), but my discussion last week was a real eye opener.  Hell, the only reason I didn't apply for a job there myself (in their finance department) was because it was my son's senior year an I was still in school myself.  I did not have the bandwidth to go through a relocation, and I did not want to be moving during my son's senior year.

 

Something that occurred to me as I am typing this:  Are there really *that* many people working in the gig economy doing Lyft, Uber, Door Dash, etc?  Up here in Bellingham, we recently started getting pretty much all of our deliveries directly from Amazon.  Driving towards Seattle in the morning, I often pass a massive parade of Amazon delivery vans headed towards Bellingham, Burlington and Mt. Vernon.  Is that where all of the workers have disappeared to?

 

Unfortunately entry level wages in the hospitality industry have always been on the very low side, usually just a cut above minimum wage even for front office positions. So for all intents and purposes a high end resort in Montana might as well be Home Depot or McDonalds if you are a recent college graduate. Cannot say that I am shocked that she is struggling to find people, it's just a difficult field for owners to offer competitive wages for what are traditionally high-turnover positions anyways. I work for Hilton and would say that 30-40% of our properties are still dealing with significant staffing issues, though that number has certainly come down some in the last year.

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I find it so difficult to imagine but I know all of you are right regarding staffing shortages.  
My husband retires in 1 1/2 yrs. I am pretty sure this problem will still be lingering about. 
They will likely beg him to stay.  No one can do his job in or out of the City.  
He’ll likely form a consulting firm and make a bundle as they’ll be so wanting of his rare experience.  
Even the 5 people he’s been training for the last yr to replace him won’t  touch his qualifications in another yr half.  The nation is bereft of valuable experience or initiative to learn.  
A tad bit terrifyingly, eh? 😳

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22 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

So you're saying the Republicans have been doing an EXCELLENT job!

 

Not that there was much in the way of expectations from this administration, but the level of partisan sabotage being exercised by McConnell and friends is pretty f*cking pathetic.

The Biden Administration’s domestic energy policy is unfathomably moronic. I was saying before he got elected that his energy proposals would render energy prices (and thus our entire economy) vulnerable to geological instability. Everything from manufacturing, to household income, to investment in alternative technologies, is affected by energy prices in the present.

Anyone stupid/incompetent enough to campaign on domestic fracking/drilling bans and phasing out nuclear has no business holding any position of power.

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Unfortunately entry level wages in the hospitality industry have always been on the very low side, usually just a cut above minimum wage even for front office positions. So for all intents and purposes a high end resort in Montana might as well be Home Depot or McDonalds if you are a recent college graduate. Cannot say that I am shocked that she is struggling to find people, it's just a difficult field for owners to offer competitive wages for what are traditionally high-turnover positions anyways. I work for Hilton and would say that 30-40% of our properties are still dealing with significant staffing issues, though that number has certainly come down some in the last year.

 

This is far from your average Hilton, or even "high end" Hilton.  Salaries transcend "Montana wages" as they are competing against other boutique resorts.  And Montana isn't that cheap any more.  I think my son was making $17/hr plus tips to sling pizza dough, and it went up quite a lot when he became a kitchen manager...both part time jobs.

As for the resort, they have free room and board on the property, and even folks who choose to live off property get $300/month stipend towards rent.  Those offsite folks also get a free tank of gas every week.  And then there are tips.  She said that one guest gave her $60,000 to distribute as tips, and I think there are about 75 employees.  That's about $800 per person from one guest.  They can accommodate up to 125 guests.  Another regular guest shows up with *CASES* of $1,000 tequila and hands them out to employees.  My relative said that working there has truly warped her sense of value for things.

They have no problem sending guests who are rude to employees packing, so....your employer has your back, you get to hunt, fish, mountain bike, ride/care for horses (whatever your experience/passion is) every day, *AND* get paid to do it.  Add in the tips, free room and board, and the opportunity to "rub elbows" with the biggest names in sports and Hollywood.... 

Not sure how that compares to a Hilton?

 

The only real downside is you have to abide by some pretty strict NDAs to protect the privacy of the guests.  She caught one employee taking a picture of a very famous guest, pulled him into her office, fired him on the spot and drove him straight to the airport as he was there on a J1 Visa.

I get that in general, the hospitality industry in struggling, but this place is typically the exception.  They have a core of year-round staff, but flex up significantly for the summer season.  She typically gets 150+ applications per position for those summer positions.  Not this summer, and that is truly perplexing....

 

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49 minutes ago, Andie said:

I find it so difficult to imagine but I know all of you are right regarding staffing shortages.  
My husband retires in 1 1/2 yrs. I am pretty sure this problem will still be lingering about. 
They will likely beg him to stay.  No one can do his job in or out of the City.  
He’ll likely form a consulting firm and make a bundle as they’ll be so wanting of his rare experience.  
Even the 5 people he’s been training for the last yr to replace him won’t  touch his qualifications in another yr half.  The nation is bereft of valuable experience or initiative to learn.  
A tad bit terrifyingly, eh? 😳

Good plan on the consulting gig.  That is actually pretty much the SOP in Japan.  Folks quit/retire/get laid off about 5-7 years before retirement then get hired right back as consultants making bank. 

Of course for your husband he will have a larger tax burden since he will be self employed, but I believe the rates he would be able to charge would more than cover that.

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21 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

 

This is far from your average Hilton, or even "high end" Hilton.  Salaries transcend "Montana wages" as they are competing against other boutique resorts.  And Montana isn't that cheap any more.  I think my son was making $17/hr plus tips to sling pizza dough, and it went up quite a lot when he became a kitchen manager...both part time jobs.

As for the resort, they have free room and board on the property, and even folks who choose to live off property get $300/month stipend towards rent.  Those offsite folks also get a free tank of gas every week.  And then there are tips.  She said that one guest gave her $60,000 to distribute as tips, and I think there are about 75 employees.  That's about $800 per person from one guest.  They can accommodate up to 125 guests.  Another regular guest shows up with *CASES* of $1,000 tequila and hands them out to employees.  My relative said that working there has truly warped her sense of value for things.

They have no problem sending guests who are rude to employees packing, so....your employer has your back, you get to hunt, fish, mountain bike, ride/care for horses (whatever your experience/passion is) every day, *AND* get paid to do it.  Add in the tips, free room and board, and the opportunity to "rub elbows" with the biggest names in sports and Hollywood.... 

Not sure how that compares to a Hilton?

 

The only real downside is you have to abide by some pretty strict NDAs to protect the privacy of the guests.  She caught one employee taking a picture of a very famous guest, pulled him into her office, fired him on the spot and drove him straight to the airport as he was there on a J1 Visa.

I get that in general, the hospitality industry in struggling, but this place is typically the exception.  They have a core of year-round staff, but flex up significantly for the summer season.  She typically gets 150+ applications per position for those summer positions.  Not this summer, and that is truly perplexing....

 

Now I want to go work there. No, but seriously I wish I had done something like that when I was younger. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

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45 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

 

This is far from your average Hilton, or even "high end" Hilton.  Salaries transcend "Montana wages" as they are competing against other boutique resorts.  And Montana isn't that cheap any more.  I think my son was making $17/hr plus tips to sling pizza dough, and it went up quite a lot when he became a kitchen manager...both part time jobs.

As for the resort, they have free room and board on the property, and even folks who choose to live off property get $300/month stipend towards rent.  Those offsite folks also get a free tank of gas every week.  And then there are tips.  She said that one guest gave her $60,000 to distribute as tips, and I think there are about 75 employees.  That's about $800 per person from one guest.  They can accommodate up to 125 guests.  Another regular guest shows up with *CASES* of $1,000 tequila and hands them out to employees.  My relative said that working there has truly warped her sense of value for things.

They have no problem sending guests who are rude to employees packing, so....your employer has your back, you get to hunt, fish, mountain bike, ride/care for horses (whatever your experience/passion is) every day, *AND* get paid to do it.  Add in the tips, free room and board, and the opportunity to "rub elbows" with the biggest names in sports and Hollywood.... 

Not sure how that compares to a Hilton?

 

The only real downside is you have to abide by some pretty strict NDAs to protect the privacy of the guests.  She caught one employee taking a picture of a very famous guest, pulled him into her office, fired him on the spot and drove him straight to the airport as he was there on a J1 Visa.

I get that in general, the hospitality industry in struggling, but this place is typically the exception.  They have a core of year-round staff, but flex up significantly for the summer season.  She typically gets 150+ applications per position for those summer positions.  Not this summer, and that is truly perplexing....

 

It's not just keeping up with the wages that are a struggle, though I would still imagine that's a major part of it. Particularly in remote MT where home availability simply isn't going to be a realistic long-term option for many, which dramatically reduces the range of applicants.

It's also, increasingly since the pandemic, simply the lifestyle (and general lack of benefits, literal and otherwise) associated with working in the service industry that has led to it struggling to catch up. Across the board, not just in hospitality. Employers increasingly are having to resort to things like signing bonuses for entry-level positions to try to reel people in. The irregularities in work scheduling and then the cascading domino effect of stress that understaffing/supply chain issues puts on existing staff has led to many people simply opting out of the field altogether. And then the increased reliance on WFH options and the gig economy since Covid has certainly helped to solidify that. Whether it's a permanent change or not remains to be seen, but it will be interesting to see how the service industry's model conforms to the increasingly digitized and automated work force going forward.

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16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Now I want to go work there. No, but seriously I wish I had done something like that when I was younger. 

I'm not kidding when I say I regret not pursuing the finance position.  It was the right decision at the time, but man the timing sure sucked. 

This relative is always posting pictures of the amazing activities she gets to do, and she is a city girl.  She grew up near San Francisco and then moved to Portland for a while.  Now she rides horses, fly fishes, and does all kinds of outdoorsy things.

I just found out that she is going to be changing jobs, but its not without a lot of hesitation.  She is basically going to work for a competitor will allow her to work 100% remote.  She is a Rancher's wife, and her current job does not allow for her to support the ranch that much.  In her interview for the new job, she told them that she was a "Rancher's wife" and part of the reason for the career change and desire to work from home was so that she could spend more time helping out with ranch operations.  Calving, haying, and cattle drives are "all hands on deck" affairs, and she has not been able to help.  Her new employer said "no problem"

Her responsibilities at her current employer don't really allow her to work remotely.  She said it has been a tough decision, but something she needs to do to support the family business.

 

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6 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Good plan on the consulting gig.  That is actually pretty much the SOP in Japan.  Folks quit/retire/get laid off about 5-7 years before retirement then get hired right back as consultants making bank. 

Of course for your husband he will have a larger tax burden since he will be self employed, but I believe the rates he would be able to charge would more than cover that.

And our CPA is our lawyer so this’ll set up easily and he’s very good.  Randy deserves to make what he’s worth.  About darn time!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

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5 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

After a solid increase on Monday, they’ve almost slumped again yesterday. (Somehow ended nearly flat on the positive side.)

Nasdaq was down big, though. Anyone who kept their portfolio heavy in tech/growth stocks has been slaughtered in 2022. I know people down 40-50% just this year.

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Prices jumped 0.3% in the one-month period from March. On a monthly basis, average hourly earnings dropped 0.1% in March, when accounting for the inflation spike. On an annual basis, real earnings dropped 2.6% in April," the report explained.

Economists recently told the Federal Reserve Bank in Philadelphia they now think the GDP will grow 2.5% for all of 2022, but that's down from the 4.2% estimates from just months ago.

The report said, the Congressional Budget Office is warning consumers inflation will stay high, at least for the next year or longer.

Economists are warning that Biden's policies are likely to lead to a recession.

Wnd.com

BUCKLE UP!

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The future is apparently going to have staffing and economic issues.  

USA birth rate has been below min sustainable levels for ~50 years. 

 

103020E3-D812-4863-B438-BB312A32ABF9.jpeg

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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2 hours ago, Andie said:

The future is apparently going to have staffing and economic issues.  

USA birth rate has been below min sustainable levels for ~50 years. 

 

103020E3-D812-4863-B438-BB312A32ABF9.jpeg

I did my part. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
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I’ve read that new builds and buys are slowing.   Maybe the market has reached its peak for now.  

Hope so. I’m sick of the building around me.  All our pastures are vanishing.  I can’t stand it.  
 

Edit:  

The White House is in an all scramble mode to mop up after Biden complains about inflation.  
First truly honest comment I’ve heard   Now…what will they do?  
Make it better or dig a deeper fox hole?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/white-house-scrambles-on-inflation-after-biden-complains-to-aides/ar-AAXWha1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

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Okay Janet Yellen, you’re officially a historic benchmark AKA: Epic Failure. 
 

On inflation being transitory: "I was wrong then about the path that inflation would take. As I mentioned, there have been unanticipated and large shocks to the economy [...] that I, at the time, didn't fully understand." trib.al/DqWmX50


 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

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I mean, really??!!  WTF?  What planet is this man on?!
 

BIDEN: "Since I took office, families are carrying less debt, their average savings are up...more Americans feel financially comfortable..."

 

 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

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6 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

The national average of gas already almost $5 a gallon, and really close to $6.40 in California

There are still a few holdouts, but the number of gas stations here in the Inland Empire under $6 is getting thinner and thinner. I'd be surprised if there are any left that aren't Costco and Sam's Club in LA County.

Thankfully I'm living with family here so I don't have to worry about expenses besides anything having to do with my car or school, but I canNOT imagine how anyone manages to live here anymore. You're lucky to find an apartment under $2000 at this point. Not to mention gas prices and the highest income tax in the nation.

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2 hours ago, IMoveALot_Weather said:

There are still a few holdouts, but the number of gas stations here in the Inland Empire under $6 is getting thinner and thinner. I'd be surprised if there are any left that aren't Costco and Sam's Club in LA County.

Thankfully I'm living with family here so I don't have to worry about expenses besides anything having to do with my car or school, but I canNOT imagine how anyone manages to live here anymore. You're lucky to find an apartment under $2000 at this point. Not to mention gas prices and the highest income tax in the nation.

Make California Golden again. 

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12 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

The national average of gas already almost $5 a gallon, and really close to $6.40 in California

Even here in usually cheap Colorado most stations are around $4.75 now. Really glad I work from home half the time.

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6 hours ago, IMoveALot_Weather said:

There are still a few holdouts, but the number of gas stations here in the Inland Empire under $6 is getting thinner and thinner. I'd be surprised if there are any left that aren't Costco and Sam's Club in LA County.

Thankfully I'm living with family here so I don't have to worry about expenses besides anything having to do with my car or school, but I canNOT imagine how anyone manages to live here anymore. You're lucky to find an apartment under $2000 at this point. Not to mention gas prices and the highest income tax in the nation.

Some counties in Eastern California are above $7 a gallon!

 

EDIT: Wrong side of the state, lol. 

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2 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Some counties in Eastern California are above $7 a gallon!

 

EDIT: Wrong side of the state, lol. 

The one notoriously expensive gas station off I-40 between Needles and Barstow was over $8 when I drove through there a month and a half ago. It has to be way more now.

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My husband is the Fleet Manager for Ft Worth and Fuel Manager.   
Wouldn’t you love to have his job?!  
 

And he’s actually running for the Retirement Board.  Real glutton  for punishment! 🫶…Or a saint. 
 

We can get Regular for $4.69 so far at QT.  
Holding our breath.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

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On 6/10/2022 at 10:37 AM, Front Ranger said:

CPI surprise to the upside, 8.6% YOY. Inflation has not peaked, which means higher chance of more and larger rate hikes by the Fed.

Gonna be an ugly summer for the economy.

To make matters worse, national average for gas just hit $5 a gallon

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3 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

To make matters worse, national average for gas just hit $5 a gallon

Fuel prices are a huge catalyst for the fact inflation can’t yet seem to stabilize or recede, despite supply beginning to stabilize. Everything has to be shipped…

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Ford just announced F150 stands for how much it costs to fill up their work horse truck. 😵💫

😂👍

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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