Coming Economic/Markets Crash

[Front Ranger]

29 minutes ago, Mercurial said:

Starting to look more like 2015 volmaggedon than 2008 to me

Long way to go to see how things play out.

We're finally seeing some of the lagged effects of the interest rate hikes from 18-24 months ago. So much money and debt has been sloshing around in the financial system. Unemployment rate has just started to accelerate up and yield curve has just started to un-invert.

History says the real "fun" won't really start until the Fed starts slashing rates. By Sep 2008, they had been cutting rates for over 9 months.

[Hoosier]

DJIA down about 1100 as we come up on close.

[Iceresistance]

Major rebound from Nikkei 225

[StormchaserChuck1]

Nasdaq and Russell2000 now almost even for the week 

It's still in a range where it could crash though. Volatility is still increasing if you look at the volume-times. But because of the election? I think it keeps rising this week.. at the very least, even. 4200 on the Nikkei to 3000 at the low is really a lot of volatility for small global events.

[StormchaserChuck1]

8/5/2024 had the Highest daily volume in the SP500 since 3/13/2023. 2nd highest volume since 1/24/2022. 

Highest volume x price since, well, it's close to #1 all time (SP futures). Sometimes the beginning of a sell-off will pose high volume, but it's not an organic drop so far.. All the books will tell you lower price + higher volume is neutral. 

The last 4 Septembers (20-23) have been down. MRCI says it's the strongest seasonal signal on the SP500, going back to the 1960s (down). I wonder if this is trying to be a Wave 1 to that.. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

Nikkei already up 5% today. Lots of volatility right now. 

[Front Ranger]

The 50 and 100 day moving averages are what to watch as far as if we're moving towards a bear market.

And of course, the next unemployment report will be huge. If it shows another jump, say up to 4.6%, it will be red alert time for recession. While that's a low number historically, one difference now is the the gig economy - so many people are working multiple part time jobs to get by.

Plus it's the rate of change that typically signifies an incoming recession.

 

[Iceresistance]

Stock market tumbling again

[StormchaserChuck1]

Pretty nice sell-off here.. even starting to see volume come down a bit

Can't imagine it doesn't get stuck at 5,000 though, if it keeps going down

[Deweydog]

Got kinda quiet in here

[StormchaserChuck1]

Big time rally.. up 3%+ from even before we had that big drop where the NKD was down -12%. Everyone here would have made money... we all said it would moderate. 

I have a down signal on it for the next 4-5 days, using indicators I use so it will be interesting to see if this can sustain.. this is the time where a wave 3 down would come (usually greater than wave 1), even though the chances of that are really low

[Iceresistance]

Keep an eye on the unemployment rate

[StormchaserChuck1]

VIX peaked at 65.73 when the market was falling (which was the 4th highest all time, going back to 1987), now it's down to 14.8! Odds are it will make some of that up this week. It's inversely correlated to the SP500 at 95-97%. I was saying when it was moving +300-500% of the market it was bullish (Futures-index market total investment). Now it's actually slightly bearish. Will be interesting to see if we get a Wave 3 out of this.. I don't think Trumps lower chances are the catalyst. 

[Andie]

Listened to a chat today about our next recession. Possibly here this fall.  
Buying opportunity, duck and cover?  Who knows.  
Keep your eyes peeled. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

The market is actually widening up, gaining some volatility like it did in 2006-7. Usually when it's near the top it moves slower, but this time we are actually swinging pretty good, while still being near the top. 

I would personally invest in Gold and Silver. Their charts look awesome.

[Iceresistance]

7 hours ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

The market is actually widening up, gaining some volatility like it did in 2006-7. Usually when it's near the top it moves slower, but this time we are actually swinging pretty good, while still being near the top. 

I would personally invest in Gold and Silver. Their charts look awesome.

I got some silver Canadian Dollars, 3 of them to be exact

[kokaneekidz]

2 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

I got some silver Canadian Dollars, 3 of them to be exact

High end loonies

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, kokaneekidz said:

High end loonies

Also a Silver Canadian Quarter and a Silver Egyptian coin (2 Qirsh from 1942 (1361))

[StormchaserChuck1]

Pretty nice drop today. >-3% on the Russel. We're just adding range, volatility, right now.. 

[Iceresistance]

41 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

Pretty nice drop today. >-3% on the Russel. We're just adding range, volatility, right now.. 

Dropping by 600 (not 6%) on the DOW

[StormchaserChuck1]

VIX again moved 10x the markets today, which is a bullish signal. I say the market goes up for the average of the next 6 trading days. 

[Iceresistance]

Nivida lost 9.5% of it's value today

[StormchaserChuck1]

That stock was doing close to $10 trillion/day for a while! 

I personally like Visa and Mastercard the best.. People are good at paying back debt. Americanexpress and Discover are good too. As long as unemployment remains low they should go up. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

On 9/3/2024 at 8:45 PM, StormchaserChuck1 said:

VIX again moved 10x the markets today, which is a bullish signal. I say the market goes up for the average of the next 6 trading days. 

SP500 +0.39%

Nasdaq +1.21%

DJIA -0.47%

[Iceresistance]

It's unpredictable now

[Deweydog]

Been a very profitable several weeks.

[iFred]

29 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Been a very profitable several weeks.

One of those "kicking myself in the face" moments. All of the comments from the fed meeting earlier this year pointed to the conditions needed for a rate cut. I can't think of an instance in recent history where a rate cut was met with a sell off, so had I actually bought some zero day options, I would have been sitting pretty. I did not do so and I am here, sitting ugly and slightly poorer.

Communist revolution now! Etc etc.

[RentonHill]

On 9/19/2024 at 10:56 AM, Deweydog said:

Been a very profitable several weeks.

Feels pretty 1998ish