Coming Economic/Markets Crash

[Anti Marine Layer]

On 3/17/2023 at 11:46 AM, Iceresistance said:

First Republic bank needs to be watched, it could also fail.

 

Dow Jones is taking a nosedive again...

Some say it's a plan by the Dems to make us use digital currency. 

[Iceresistance]

Just now, Mr Marine Layer said:

Some say it's a plan by the Dems to make us use digital currency. 

Well, even digital currency is having problems with this. Silvergate was a Crypto Bank.

[roadtonowhere08]

4 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

What should it be called then?

A California pothole.

[Iceresistance]

The Fed is insane, another rate hike, highest since 2007.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

On 3/18/2023 at 1:59 PM, Front Ranger said:

Don't call it a crash.

Hasn’t gone down nearly that much in metro Vancouver. Yet.

A bloodbath would personally benefit me. Unless, of course, it triggers a wider contagion.

[Front Ranger]

9 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

The Fed is insane, another rate hike, highest since 2007.

They are stuck between a big rock and a very hard place. Inflation is far from tamed yet, and so they believe they have to raise rates until it is, even if leads to a more significant financial/credit crisis than we've already seen (it will).

[Iceresistance]

9 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

They are stuck between a big rock and a very hard place. Inflation is far from tamed yet, and so they believe they have to raise rates until it is, even if leads to a more significant financial/credit crisis than we've already seen (it will).

The fuse for a Nuclear Economic recession is lit. When it blows, it's not going to be pretty.

[Iceresistance]

Bed Bath & Beyond has filed for Bankruptcy

[Anti Marine Layer]

Wow, this is still here.

[Iceresistance]

Ow!
US economic growth slowed significantly at start of 2023 (msn.com)

[Stormy]

On 4/26/2023 at 7:55 AM, Iceresistance said:

Bed Bath & Beyond has filed for Bankruptcy

Budweiser up next?  Fox News is being Budweisered as well.

[roadtonowhere08]

On 3/9/2023 at 1:57 PM, Andie said:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/stock-market-crash-60-days-best-selling-author-lehman-collapse

I suppose it’s anybody’s guess.  
Place your bets.  

Perhaps it will slow the flood into Texas and Florida.  It’s messing us up.  I mean come on New York and California,  fix your own house.  

So we are coming up on the 60 day mark.  How does everyone feel about their bets?  I feel great about mine.

[Andie]

Can anyone say they’re genuinely excited about things.? 

[Reg]

4 hours ago, Andie said:

Can anyone say they’re genuinely excited about things.? 

I find this very interesting - most Americans, of all political backgrounds and affiliations, find this country's economic future to be very bleak no matter what the situation - the main differences being who to blame for the current situation...

[Andie]

Lots of folks to blame most likely.  
But a lack of real understanding of economics and a lot of folks despondent about the state of society may be a contributing factor.   
I’m just not seeing a great deal of enthusiasm over the future.  
The inflation rate will increase as will interest rates, costs of goods. What is there to say?  
Blame will happen.  Just not noisy enough yet.  

[Iceresistance]

First Republic Bank is likely doomed

First Republic Bank to be taken over by FDIC: Report | Fox Business

[Andie]

Dominoes?…..

“First Republic’s fate was set when the bank revealed that it lost $100 billion in deposits after SVB’s collapse led to panic among wealthy clients. Its stock plummeted 75 percent last week. 

It’s unclear whether First Republic Bank is the final domino to fall in the recent banking crisis. That could hinge on whether depositors will pull their money from other institutions.”

-The Hill  5/1/23

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A lot of reasons to be extremely concerned about the economy right now. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

A lot of reasons to be extremely concerned about the economy right now. 

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

That’s ridiculous. I don’t see gas going over $35/gallon any time soon.

[Andie]

And this won't help.....

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/summerfuels.php

We expect more U.S. consumption of gasoline and higher prices this summer compared with last summer. We forecast that the retail price of regular-grade gasoline in the United States will average $3.84/gal during the summer of 2022. Last summer’s average price was $3.06/gal. In 2022, we expect real retail gasoline prices for the summer to be the highest since 2014. We forecast that U.S. gasoline consumption will average 9.2 million barrels per day (b/d), up 0.8% from last summer

The consequences of Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine, along with increasing global economic activity that contributes to more oil consumption throughout this summer, results in our expectation of high crude oil prices

[roadtonowhere08]

22 minutes ago, Andie said:

And this won't help.....

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/summerfuels.php

We expect more U.S. consumption of gasoline and higher prices this summer compared with last summer. We forecast that the retail price of regular-grade gasoline in the United States will average $3.84/gal during the summer of 2022. Last summer’s average price was $3.06/gal. In 2022, we expect real retail gasoline prices for the summer to be the highest since 2014. We forecast that U.S. gasoline consumption will average 9.2 million barrels per day (b/d), up 0.8% from last summer

The consequences of Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine, along with increasing global economic activity that contributes to more oil consumption throughout this summer, results in our expectation of high crude oil prices

I paid $7 a gallon up by San Francisco early last summer, so that's the price to beat. 

[roadtonowhere08]

3 hours ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

I didn't know Chicken Little had a newspaper.

[Anti Marine Layer]

9 minutes ago, roadtonowhere08 said:

I didn't know Chicken Little had a newspaper.

He's had them the last 50 years

https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/50-years-of-failed-doomsday-eco-pocalyptic-predictions-the-so-called-experts-are-0-50/

[Andie]

40 minutes ago, roadtonowhere08 said:

I didn't know Chicken Little had a newspaper.

  Surprise!!!

[Front Ranger]

https://www.newsweek.com/credit-crunch-coming-opinion-1799542

[roadtonowhere08]

12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

https://www.newsweek.com/credit-crunch-coming-opinion-1799542

Great article and great points:

"Hopefully, after the smoke clears on the coming credit crunch we can raise questions about how the Fed and other central banks behave. Are their experimental monetary policies actually helpful? Or do they just encourage wasteful capital allocation and economic instability? Should the Fed even be attempting to steer the economy at all? Or should it just concern itself with the stability of the banking system and providing the economy with a fair rate of interest?"

[Deweydog]

Oh wow… a compromise incoming on the debt ceiling. Imagine that!

[Andie]

So, I’m curious as to why the US  is letting China lock up the global mineral markets. 
You know, little things like Lithium, Uranium, Cobalt and such.  They’re buying up African and Australian resources and here in the US they’re buying up our land like drunken sailors.  
So, we’re losing on the advanced manufacturing race and national protection of sovereignty and most likely our national stability and security.  

Meanwhile, Biden helicoptered to Camp David for a rest this weekend.

 

[roadtonowhere08]

The economy's doomsday clock has been reset

Wall Street's fearmongers were totally wrong about a recession

https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-recession-stock-market-crash-calls-wrong-economy-housing-2023-6

Thoughts anyone?

[Andie]

Well, I know the prognosticators have said Fall/Winter would bring us a recession.  If they’re backing off from that then I’m really pleased.  
Just don’t need that right now.  
On any level. 

[roadtonowhere08]

1 hour ago, Andie said:

Well, I know the prognosticators have said Fall/Winter would bring us a recession.  If they’re backing off from that then I’m really pleased.  
Just don’t need that right now.  
On any level. 

I'd wager the pandemic was the stress test and blow off that a recession would cause.  We are in recovery and thriving mode.

[SnarkyGoblin]

A lot of the posts on this thread sure aren't aging well.  Especially the ones about about how the BBB bill was going to wreck inflation havoc.

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

A lot of the posts on this thread sure aren't aging well.  Especially the ones about about how the BBB bill was going to wreck inflation havoc.

It did cause a huge jump in inflation, over 9% in June 2022 after the bill was signed by Biden

[Iceresistance]

Interest rates are still too high, we are not out of the woods because it could suddenly happen.

 

Some of the worst of the economic failures (Stock market crashes) are the very unexpected ones.

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

It did cause a huge jump in inflation, over 9% in June 2022 after the bill was signed by Biden

This is silly. The inflation train was three miles down the track once that bill was signed. Wasn’t a good look politically, but over the long term it’s a drop in the bucket. Good ol’ supply and demand is the big driver, and unfortunately for the pundits it’s something that transcends politics.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Actually the USA isn’t doing to shabbily in the post-COVID economic department. Best growth and lowest inflation of any G7 country.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Post-COVID, workers at the bottom end of the wage scale have recovered 25% of what they lost due to four decades of growing economic inequality.

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w31010/w31010.pdf

[Andie]

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

This is silly. The inflation train was three miles down the track once that bill was signed. Wasn’t a good look politically, but over the long term it’s a drop in the bucket. Good ol’ supply and demand is the big driver, and unfortunately for the pundits it’s something that transcends politics.

Supply and demand factor in as well and many people I know are not buying anything new. They’re making due and taking care of what they have.  Cost of food is up and that bad enough but with everything else factored in it’s lousy. 

[Deweydog]

SP500 closes over 4.5k for the first time since 4/1/22…

[SnarkyGoblin]

On 7/12/2023 at 9:27 AM, Deweydog said:

This is silly. The inflation train was three miles down the track once that bill was signed. Wasn’t a good look politically, but over the long term it’s a drop in the bucket. Good ol’ supply and demand is the big driver, and unfortunately for the pundits it’s something that transcends politics.

Not to mention it's only now funds are slowly starting to be spent.

[Iceresistance]

On 4/27/2023 at 3:59 PM, Stormy said:

Budweiser up next?  Fox News is being Budweisered as well.

Aged like milk

[Iceresistance]

If this is true...

The US economy is in for rollercoaster inflation and could be headed for an ultra-rare 'full employment recession,' BlackRock says (msn.com)

[Deweydog]

2 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

Confirmed Hate Speech and promoter of violence.

Trans Activist Called on Crowd to Punch TERF Women in the Face During Hate Inciting Speech (msn.com)

This is going to seriously tank the housing market!

[Iceresistance]

52 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

This is going to seriously tank the housing market!

Fooey! I posted that on the wrong topic!

[Iceresistance]

Some are still insisting it's coming, but it is going to come just before Election Day 2024?

Recession at least a year away, economists now say (msn.com)

[Iceresistance]

Since April 2020, TRILLIONS were wiped out.

A $5.5 trillion savings wipeout is raising risks for the US economy (msn.com)

 

[Andie]

17 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

If this is true...

The US economy is in for rollercoaster inflation and could be headed for an ultra-rare 'full employment recession,' BlackRock says (msn.com)

I’ve been saying for a long time. Recession by end of this yr.   Fell on deaf ears. 

[Iceresistance]

7 minutes ago, Andie said:

I’ve been saying for a long time. Recession by end of this yr.   Fell on deaf ears. 

We are also likely in for a nasty surprise.

 

People keep forgetting that the inflation is only settling at the higher prices, and the high inflation will eventually get replaced with high (or hyper) deflation, where (this is only my opinion) we could deflate over 20-30 years worth of inflation!

[Front Ranger]