Iceresistance Posted April 25, 2022 Report Share Posted April 25, 2022 The GFS & GEFS is hinting that May is looking dangerous with Supercell action across Northern Texas, most of Oklahoma & Kansas for most of the days in the month, the GEFS has really taken note of it for most of the month. 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 26, 2022 Report Share Posted April 26, 2022 10 day GFS showing above average precipitation for most going through the first week of May. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 26, 2022 Report Share Posted April 26, 2022 I've been watching the EPS continue to trend wetter for our NE peeps and most of the central ag belt right when its prime time for our farmers. + Signs....#Bullseye 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 26, 2022 Report Share Posted April 26, 2022 CFSv2 suggesting one hellova blocking pattern....why don't you come back in DEC please??? 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 26, 2022 Report Share Posted April 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, Tom said: CFSv2 suggesting one hellova blocking pattern....why don't you come back in DEC please??? Lezak mentioned another frost possible in May. Where's the warmth uggg! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 26, 2022 Report Share Posted April 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, Clinton said: Lezak mentioned another frost possible in May. Where's the warmth uggg! Yup, def not what the doc ordered...outside of those down in TX/OK/NE and prob skirting your area and KC, real nice weather will be suppressed for the southern folks through mid MAY until it breaks down a bit and allow a warmer pattern later in May. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 27, 2022 Report Share Posted April 27, 2022 The LR signals I'm seeing during Week 2-3 is a major trough and very chilly temps shaping up for the season. Those trees will not be budding anytime soon (except those from KC on south). Man, what an ugly month this is looking for a lot of the eastern CONUS. I could see some peeps still experiencing Frost/Freeze advisories if what I see does happen. My target period is the Week of the 15th for a strong push of chilly air out of Canada along with a dominant NW Flow pattern. Let's see if that happens. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 27, 2022 Report Share Posted April 27, 2022 The next 9 days off the 0z EPS...boy, does that green paint bomb look beautiful for NE and the heartland... 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 28, 2022 Report Share Posted April 28, 2022 How do we open May??? We flip the script for NE peeps but continue the "cool" and sub normal pattern. With the good, comes the ugly....unfortunately, that's what your going to have to deal with in this pattern. Gosh, I could see Record cold highs for @CentralNebWeathercome May 2nd. Both GFS/EURO suggesting some accumulating snow in parts of NW NE as we open up May. 0z Euro loading it up....it could become to much of a good thing, however, so maybe ya'll should tell everyone to maybe cut back on the prayers?? I counted 4 troughs lining up like a symphony across the central ag belt region. Wouldn't this be a wonderful pattern next cold season? 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted April 28, 2022 Report Share Posted April 28, 2022 6z GFS lol. Summer not coming soon. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 28, 2022 Report Share Posted April 28, 2022 32 minutes ago, Tom said: How do we open May??? We flip the script for NE peeps but continue the "cool" and sub normal pattern. With the good, comes the ugly....unfortunately, that's what your going to have to deal with in this pattern. Gosh, I could see Record cold highs for @CentralNebWeathercome May 2nd. Both GFS/EURO suggesting some accumulating snow in parts of NW NE as we open up May. 0z Euro loading it up....it could become to much of a good thing, however, so maybe ya'll should tell everyone to maybe cut back on the prayers?? I counted 4 troughs lining up like a symphony across the central ag belt region. Wouldn't this be a wonderful pattern next cold season? Any moisture is welcome. Local forecasts call for multiple chances in the coming days. Dew Point of 52 this morning with dew on the cars. Don’t remember the last time I’ve seen that. Hopefully good moisture available for the storms tomorrow afternoon. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 28, 2022 Report Share Posted April 28, 2022 18 minutes ago, Clinton said: 6z GFS lol. Summer not coming soon. That's just cruel...if Chi see's any snow falling in May, you'll see plenty of social media meme's and rants! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 28, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 28, 2022 This is going to get a LOT of people excited! I've not seen anything like this in a while! @Andie@CentralNebWeather@snowstorm83@OKwx2k4@Tom @Hawkeye@hawkstwelve (Apologies in advance for those I've not listed, there's too many to list at once!) 6 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 28, 2022 Report Share Posted April 28, 2022 Ummmmm... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted April 28, 2022 Report Share Posted April 28, 2022 12z GFS storm parade through next week. Definitely good for Nebraska but gross overall pattern. No warmth in sight either. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted April 28, 2022 Report Share Posted April 28, 2022 The GFS and GDPS are brutal through the first week of May. The blocking will keep the cold dumping down into the midwest. 1 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 28, 2022 Report Share Posted April 28, 2022 Despite what guidance looks like at the moment, I’m more concerned about a very hot/dry summer than a cool/wet one. The tropical-ET relationships change significantly during mid-May. The low pass state that produces cool anomalies now ends up favoring a very warm outcome during the second half of May. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted April 28, 2022 Report Share Posted April 28, 2022 Sorry to those closer to the Lakes but we've had plenty of warm days out here so I'm looking forward to the cooler and wetter stretch Also the A/C in my car has been acting funny so that's fun. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 28, 2022 Report Share Posted April 28, 2022 Not that I believe day 15 of the GFS, but you can't help but laugh that it's showing 82 degrees in central Canada and low 60s in the midwest. Pretty much defies logic. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted April 28, 2022 Report Share Posted April 28, 2022 So many drought stricken areas would see significant relief if this pans out. Sure hope it does. Not that I like the pattern at all. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 29, 2022 Author Report Share Posted April 29, 2022 6 hours ago, bud2380 said: So many drought stricken areas would see significant relief if this pans out. Sure hope it does. Not that I like the pattern at all. Do I see DFW getting 7-10 inches of rainfall? 3 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted April 29, 2022 Report Share Posted April 29, 2022 The first 3 weeks are typically North Texas’s wettest. But this looks very good. Ranchers, farmers, gardeners will all celebrate. Lakes will fill for the summer. All really good news. After this past year it’s welcomed. 3 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted April 29, 2022 Report Share Posted April 29, 2022 4 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Do I see DFW getting 7-10 inches of rainfall? Looks like 6” per Buds post. Good nevertheless! Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted April 30, 2022 Report Share Posted April 30, 2022 When nature decides to "flip the script" for the Heartland of the Nation...this map will be noticeably different by June 1st east of the Rockies...W/C TX may be the exception, however.... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 30, 2022 Report Share Posted April 30, 2022 12Z Canadian with crazy amounts of precipitation here in the next 10 days. Nice. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted April 30, 2022 Report Share Posted April 30, 2022 NWS Hastings disco for the next week looks wet. Progressive flow will provide a series of waves for precip chances for the rest of the forecast. Shortwave ridging will help keep Sunday dry and warmer from today, but more rain is on the way late Sunday night/Monday with the next wave, and a closed low associated with it aloft. The surface low will track east, across central/southern Kansas, far enough south to keep any severe risk outside of the area. Conditions will be rather cool with plenty of cool air on the cold side of the system to give us highs in the 40s for Monday. With subsequent waves giving us rain chances on Wednesday through much of the rest of the week, cool and damp weather will prevail for most of this upcoming forecast. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted April 30, 2022 Report Share Posted April 30, 2022 May 1st 2021- KDSM high of 87F. Forecast high for May 1st at KDSM- 56F. Currently 50F and raw with drizzle and 40mph gusty SW winds-- that hard to do this late in the year. I heat my house with wood. Currently have a fire going. Only time later is May of 2013'. 7 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted May 1, 2022 Report Share Posted May 1, 2022 3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said: May 1st 2021- KDSM high of 87F. Forecast high for May 1st at KDSM- 56F. Currently 50F and raw with drizzle and 40mph gusty SW winds-- that hard to do this late in the year. I heat my house with wood. Currently have a fire going. Only time later is May of 2013'. I heated with wood 2009 to 2021.. many times into late april or may. So glad i dont now! Here in my area it would have been relentless work! I have only opened a window 2 times for few hours! Furnace runs daily! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted May 1, 2022 Report Share Posted May 1, 2022 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 1, 2022 Report Share Posted May 1, 2022 1 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted May 1, 2022 Report Share Posted May 1, 2022 9 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said: Nice to see this updated and mirrors what I've been thinking for quite some time. I'm glad to see this pattern flip on a dime for your region and others. Good luck this week! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 1, 2022 Report Share Posted May 1, 2022 Only got to 57 this morning, dark clouds and it has started sprinkling. That line was breaking up in this corner of the state not surprisingly. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted May 1, 2022 Report Share Posted May 1, 2022 Excessive rainfall possible in western MO this week will cause flooding with some rivers already swollen. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 1, 2022 Report Share Posted May 1, 2022 Just when I thought the t'storms were skipping around me, flash and boom just now! Raining pretty good out there. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted May 1, 2022 Report Share Posted May 1, 2022 Welcome to May!! Looking back at April it was indeed a cool and wet month. The mean at Grand Rapids was 43.6° that is -4.0 from the 30 year average mean. The high for the month was a very mild 82 on the 23rd and the low was 23 on the 2nd. Only 8 days all month were warmer than average and 22 where below average. There was a total of 5.19" of rain fall. There was just 0.4" of snow fall. It was also cooler and wetter then average at Muskegon with a mean of 44.1 and a departure of -2.7 they recorded 4.94" of rain and had 3.3" of snow fall. Lansing had a mean of 45.8 for a departure of -1.2 at Lansing there was less rain but they still had 3.53" and 0.5" of snow fall. The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 57/46 with some light rain and a east wind it felt colder then that. Overnight some heavy rain with thunderstorms moved in and here at my house a total of 1.12" of rain fell the official amount for GRR was 1.01" The overnight low here was 47 and at this time with blue sky to the west it is 53. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 1, 2022 Report Share Posted May 1, 2022 Other than a couple of highs near 90 last month, I would consider April to be a rather temperate month with lots of days not even breaking 70+ in there. I don't really know the averages well. And seems like KY is doing good on rainfall. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted May 1, 2022 Report Share Posted May 1, 2022 63 and 100% humidity. Things sure greened up nicely on this street. When it dries out we're hiring someone to keep up the property. The back section is very different from the other house otherwise I'd do it myself. 5 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted May 1, 2022 Report Share Posted May 1, 2022 The Monday night/Tuesday system had looked like 1+" of rain across much of Iowa, but models have been steadily trending south and lowering totals. There are still a couple models showing 1+" here, but now it's looking more like 0.25"-0.75" across the state. Here's the Euro Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted May 1, 2022 Report Share Posted May 1, 2022 7 hours ago, Clinton said: Excessive rainfall possible in western MO this week will cause flooding with some rivers already swollen. Yeah. Not going to be good down here in the Ozarks. That and the coupled threat of high priority severe threats of all types over the next 10 and it's not ideal. Thankful, very much, for the rainfall in Nebraska and TX specifically. Was getting to be a horrible situation and still is for many areas of Nebraska. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 2, 2022 Report Share Posted May 2, 2022 16 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said: Other than a couple of highs near 90 last month, I would consider April to be a rather temperate month with lots of days not even breaking 70+ in there. I don't really know the averages well. And seems like KY is doing good on rainfall. April is a cooler, more tolerable month than October. I usually lop it in with the “cool season” months (though it doesn’t always work that way). The way I think of seasons here: Warm season: roughly 5/15 to 10/1 Cool season: roughly 11/1 to 4/15. In-between/variable: 10/1 to 11/1 and 4/15 to 5/15. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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