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May 2022 Observations & Discussions


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5 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Euro has really dried out for most C and E IA for this late week system.

The large MCS activity down south has completely stolen our Thursday/Friday rain system.  All models have now removed nearly all rain for most of Iowa.  Instead of a two-day 1-2" soaker, models are showing scattered very light rain and drizzle totaling 0.1" at most.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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After this storm passes things might dry out in the KC area for a week.  I say might because the Euro is nasty muggy, my grass will be ripping.  Hopefully the Euro is overdone but check out the Heat Index values forecasted for mid week.

0d40d5_ae7fb4af88a944daaf560fd4f1831fc6~mv2.webp

It will be interesting to see what happens next weekend when a very strong storm meets all of this energy.

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It's going to get toasty here tomorrow and Sat as the valley will likely top 100F both days.  The avg date for the 1st 100F day is May 2nd so right about on schedule.

The Euro has backed off on the Heat into later next week/weekend over the eastern Sub.  It has a couple of Hot days for Tue/Wed but then more reasonable temps in the 70's/80's.  I'm really curious if the DP's surge into the 70's even without any vegetation blooming.

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I see a LR signal that the 2nd half of May is going to turn very wet across the ag belt which is a concern for the farmers.  Impacts for the Memorial Day weekend at this time is somewhat wet and seasonal except up near the GL's where it looks drier...signs that a SER will begin to build, esp over FL, where I predict HEAT for those folks over the MDW holiday week.

JMA week 3-4 mirrors the idea...

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Temps overall look seasonal...

Y202205.D0412_gl2.png

 

 

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The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 62/42 and for a change there was 80% of possible sunshine. The official overnight low was 40, here at my house the low was 39. For one of the few this in recent days the low at Lansing was colder than at Grand Rapids the official overnight low at Lansing was 36. At he current time there is hazy sun and a reading of 49 here at my house.
It now looks like there will several days of summer like temperatures starting next week. That will cause a great leap in the the green up of much of Michigan. The latest runs of the CFSv2 show a kind of up and down look for the rest of May.

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Spring has been very cold in KC!!! Over 3 degrees below average since March 20th. Next week's heat will get our attention. I'm also 3 inches below average on moisture since April 1st. Had some good moisture this week in my part of KC, but nothing big, just .69 inches. KC south certainly had more.  We were actually very dry before Friday's rain hit late in the evening.  Some of the fescue yards are just now coming out of dormancy and growing. Cool season grasses(blue and rye grass have been growing, especially the last 2 weeks)Vegetation has been very slow to get going, next week should send it into overdrive.

 

I welcome the warmth, I have been in winter attire every weekend for baseball tournaments. I kept saying, did we sign up for winter league....miserable to coach baseball when its cold. Finally, baseball forecast for this weekend, 75 Saturday and 85 Sunday, let's go!!

64 days ago, the LRC cycle length, we had a very warm start to March, that is cycling through next week. Following that very warm start March 1st-5th, we had 8 days well below average and (2) snow storms. So, look for another cool down next weekend per the LRC with storm systems in the nations mid-section. Should be plenty dry starting tomorrow through next Friday or so...

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Looks like the storm and hail jumped over me!   And the headache is easing.  
Crazy.  
 

 

F6AEBDBE-5ED8-4629-B2D8-38A01837F93D.png

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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It seems like this system is kind of a dud, definitely not looking like 1-1.5". And we're going to quickly flip to hot and dry, relying on storm chances for precip. I'm going on a trip to Cancun on the 18th, so at least the temperature shift shouldn't be much of an adjustment by then 😂

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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17 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Some of the roads there need maintenance outside of the big city I should probably mention too.

It's not as bad as I-65 in Alabama! The road condition there is terrible! Especially at and south of Birmingham.

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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Hello from New York City. Been here since last Monday for pleasure and a little business. Weather is not bad. Temps are mostly in the 60s and 70s. Although, yesterday was a cool dreary day w temps in the 50s. 

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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2 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

It seems like this system is kind of a dud, definitely not looking like 1-1.5". And we're going to quickly flip to hot and dry, relying on storm chances for precip. I'm going on a trip to Cancun on the 18th, so at least the temperature shift shouldn't be much of an adjustment by then 😂

NWS Hastings with a huge swing and a miss.  We were in the 1-2" range just 24 hours ago.  Their forecast had us move our track meet from today to tomorrow and many schools moved activities.  We got 0.10".   Hard to miss it that badly.  It has been in the low 50's with no rain. Would have been a perfect day for a track meet.  Our AD and track coaches couldn't believe how nice today turned out to be.  I will say the GFS was spot on again, never showing much rain at all here.  I kept wondering where Hastings was getting these large, forecasted amounts.  Fortunately, we got our rain earlier this week, but hate to miss out when we are still in drought conditions.

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I’m thinking the severe weather threat for this weekend into next week is really starting to diminish.

The ridge in the east has nearly stopped any advance of the west trough keeping all the good upper level flow well west of where the heat, humidity, and CAPE are forecast to be. Have to hope for some small scale shortwave trough to kick out of the big trough and be timed correctly otherwise no bueno for severe storms.

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53 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I’m thinking the severe weather threat for this weekend into next week is really starting to diminish.

The ridge in the east has nearly stopped any advance of the west trough keeping all the good upper level flow well west of where the heat, humidity, and CAPE are forecast to be. Have to hope for some small scale shortwave trough to kick out of the big trough and be timed correctly otherwise no bueno for severe storms.

Also factoring the trough uncertainty since it's slowing down.

Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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Bowling ball ULL will make for a cool, wet weekend here.

Thunderstorm chances look decent tomorrow night. Severe weather not out of the question along and south of the WF.

Strong E/NE fetch off the cool water over the weekend will keep us in the clouds with highs in the low 50s and plenty of rain showers. Need the rain badly, so this is welcome.

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11 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

It seems like this system is kind of a dud, definitely not looking like 1-1.5". And we're going to quickly flip to hot and dry, relying on storm chances for precip. I'm going on a trip to Cancun on the 18th, so at least the temperature shift shouldn't be much of an adjustment by then 😂

Well I guess we got lucky. We’ve picked up 0.75” in the past several hours just from a random band of moderate rain training over Lincoln. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Happy Friday!  #TGIF....It does appear to me that the C Plains/MW region will experience a Summer-like storm pattern as the S Plains ridge builds and storms could fire up on the periphery of the ridge.  This should spark some "Ridge Riders" or even a nocturnal MCS next week.  The Op models are starting to sorta hint at this pattern but its to far out.  I would imagine as we get closer in time that the CAM's start sniffing this out.  

The 0z Euro is still suggesting DP's well into the 70's next TUE providing the juice to fire up any storm development.  I'd say the Tue pm-Thu period is the one to watch for areas near E NE/IA/MO/IL.

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CAPE values from both the EURO/GFS are rather high...

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Looks like the storm and hail jumped over me!   And the headache is easing.  
Crazy.  
A real taste of summer hits this week with temps in the mid to high 90’s   
I'm just not ready for this   
 

☺️☺️☺️ But it’s 56* now!! 🙌

 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The last 2 days produced 1.5 inches of rain and I received 3.15 inches over the last 7 days.  Big rainfall totals over SW MO and Oklahoma.  Temperatures look to go from mid March to mid July over the next 4 days, it's going to be a shock.

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60-61 and thunderstorm a few miles away in Ashland. The airport isn't reporting thunder. SMH ;)

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Yesterday was yet another cool day. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 59/40. The overnight low here in MBY was 50 and at the current time there is light rain falling and I have a reading of 51. After what looks to be a nice spring weekend it still looks like we swing into some summer like weather. The current forecasted highs in the upper 70's to low 80's will be very welcomed. While at the current time spring growth is behind  schedule we will catch up rapidly next week. While the highs next week will be well above average at this time it looks like they will be below record levels. And as for using the term "heatwave" or "blowtorch" will I guess that is up to ones perspective. As stated it will be warmer than average but do you really want to call temperatures in the low 80's a heatwave? If so then the cold we had a week or so ago should have been called a "cold wave" 

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Light rain is still falling here and the current temperature is stuck at 51. Officially at GRR there is light rain falling and they are reporting a temp of 49. You do not have to go very far to the north to find clear skies as it is clear at Big Rapids and north. It also warmer to the north today and at Ironwood it is even in the low 60's with clear s sky.

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I've had rain but not this much! 

This is Huntington, West Virginia today. They're 15 miles from here.

280135054_10159348135349702_785392055024628388_n.jpg

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Off-and-on downpours and the occasional rumble of thunder today. Very dark/grey outside since midday…thick cloudcover with a low base. Temp has been hovering around 60°F.

Downpours could intensify overnight with some elevated convection possibly making it into the area. We’ll see.

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46 minutes ago, Phil said:

Off-and-on downpours and the occasional rumble of thunder today. Very dark/grey outside since midday…thick cloudcover with a low base. Temp has been hovering around 60°F.

Downpours could intensify overnight with some elevated convection possibly making it into the area. We’ll see.

Never had any clearing here, stayed in the mid-60's and pretty drippy day. 

Radar looks active but its hard to keep any of the reds going over Boyd County. 

  • Weenie 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Hit a high of 87 today.  
Then 4 days of 95-97!!!!!!

Its summer-ish.  😎

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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More rumbles again, and rain picking up a little heavier.

64 degrees

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Wind randomly started roaring here. 40-50mph from the E/NE. Some sort of speed max on the backend of the precip shield.

Should be calming down shortly. At least temporarily.

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The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 60/44. I live just NW of Grand Rapids and I was on the NW edge of the rain fall yesterday and I recorded 0.09" of rain while the airport had 0.17" of rain while areas to the south received more such as Kalamazoo were 0.60" fell. There will be a chance of some frost on Sunday morning but then it looks to be the start of the 2022 growing season.

We are in the 2022 growing season. Well let’s  hope we are done with killing frost for this year different areas have much different planting times. In Michigan we have cold winters and sometimes late springs, depending on which part of the state you live in. Timing for warm-season, cool-season, and tender crops in a Michigan varies greatly and relies heavily on soil temperature and frost dates.

For the start of the growing season we have to know what date on average do you have the last 32° reading. Here is a list of some of the last 32 days in our area with the average date, the earliest date and the latest date.  Grand Rapids May 1st April 6, 1925, latest June 4th 1945. Lansing average May 11th April 8, 1886, July 15, 1863. Since 1900 the dates are May 8, April 12, 1952 and June 11, 1972. At Muskegon the average in May 4th the earliest is April 9, 1987 and the latest is June 22, 1992. At Holland the dates are May 6th April 13,1916 and June 11, 1972. At Kalamazoo the dates are May 3rd April 8,1896 and May 27, 1993. So for the most part we are now past the average last 32 date and way past the earliest. 

Not all vegetable crops require the same season or temperatures to grow. Warm-season crops are those that grow best during the warmer parts of the season. These include sweet corn, cucumbers, tomatoes, peppers, and melons. All of these are tender crops that are susceptible to frost damage or even death by frost.

Cool-season vegetables, on the other hand, prefer the cooler temperatures of fall and spring. Many are frost-tolerant, some to temperatures as low as 20. Onions, peas, spinach, leafy lettuces are all cool-season vegetables.

Many cool-season vegetables can handle planting times as early as the soil thaws and is workable, usually late March through early April in southern Michigan and three weeks later in the most northern parts. Tender, warm-season crops, however, require much warmer soil temperatures and must wait until the danger of frost has passed. Planting on Memorial Day is a good rule of thumb, but frost dangers occur frequently throughout much of Michigan in spring. If you plant around mid to late May, keep an eye on the weather forecast and cover your seedlings or transplants. If there is a low below 40 in the forecast or a frost advisory is issued.

Checking the soil temperature helps ensure your ground is ready for various types of seeds. Different crops grow best at different soil temperatures. Tomatoes and corn need a soil temperature of 55 or better. Cold-tolerant crops will germinate and grow at a soil temperature of around 45 degrees.

We will have a rapid leaf growth in the next week and by next weekend we should have most trees fully leaf out. The rest of the month we will have to keep a eye on any nights that are clear and cool

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I'm looking at perfect weather today with sunshine and light winds and a high of 72.  Another nice day tomorrow and then the heat is on next week, near record highs are possible Tuesday through Thursday with highs in the low 90s.

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