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May 2022 Observations & Discussions


Iceresistance

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Its really coming down. Temp is at 55F. Very raw day today, weatherwise. Feels like October!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

The total rain fall here in my area was just 0.25" but that was better than no rain.

True.

Also, the back edge of the rainfall is now alomost starting to approach my area. Rain should finally tapor off in a couple of hours. My area looks like it picked up near .50", give or take. Like you said, better some rain then no rain. 

Big cooldown after Fridays severe weather and warmth. Lows could be dropping in the 30s for some.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Send us some of that cool rain guys!! 

I know it’ll dip Sunday, but we need about 3 weeks of it.  It’s 97 out the wind blowing like crazy.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Well, summer was nice. Lasted longer than expected too. Strangest compressed spring in memory. Some still have Daffodils in bloom (can be as early as March), while most Lilacs are also in full bloom (often a June thing). 😐 😶

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

True.

Also, the back edge of the rainfall is now alomost starting to approach my area. Rain should finally tapor off in a couple of hours. My area looks like it picked up near .50", give or take. Like you said, better some rain then no rain. 

Big cooldown after Fridays severe weather and warmth. Lows could be dropping in the 30s for some.

How's autumn treating ya bud??

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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34 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Temperatures are fluctuating on the East Coast too. This time of year is so fickle. 

Yup. Gonna torch this weekend and we might not get any convection to show for it.

Next week looks interesting, but still a ways off.

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Looking ahead for my area, today and then the next 48 looking like a warm punch before a striking reminder its still May down here.

In terms of volatility and dynamics, this has been the most extreme, windy and bi-polar the weather has been in at least 25 years here.

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Just now, OKwx2k4 said:

Looking ahead for my area, today and then the next 48 looking like a warm punch before a striking reminder its still May down here.

In terms of volatility and dynamics, this has been the most extreme, windy and bi-polar the weather has been in at least 25 years here.

That seems to be the theme for many of us on here since last Autumn.  I'm really curious and interested to see if this will continue into next year.  

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It was a chilly, dreary, cloudy day yesterday which has been all to common this Spring.  I fought hard not to, but in the end, I had to turn the Furnace On to get some warmth in the house.  It won't be the last time this season I'll be turning it on bc the forecast calls for some chilly nights ahead this weekend into mid next week.  Before then, however, after the fog burns off this morning we will be seeing temps jump into the 80's today and tomorrow.  Summer returns, storm chances return....then, back to chilly and damp weather for the weekend!   Ugghh!  Don't worry, bc just like in 2019, Sudden Summer returns for the MW/GL's.  

I'm glad to see the 0z GEFS turn much warmer for the MDW and pretty much agreeing with the EPS.  The 0z Euro showing what is likely to happen as the HEAT and HUMIDITY Surge into the majority of our Sub to close out MAY.  

 

1.gif

 

What a wild swing for CO and the PanHandle.....From Winter to Instant Summer in a span of a few days...

1.png

 

 

Finally, the modeling mostly agree that we will finish off met Spring with one last GL's cutter mid next week from KC to Chicago to GRR....another eastern ag belt soaker is in the works...

2.png

 

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Hang in there folks, bc the pattern in the extended is something I had been pondering on from a few weeks ago when I was in AZ analyzing the pattern.  What will be a "Central CONUS Chill"....it will eventually Flip to the "Summer Sizzle" theme for JUNE....Mother Nature has her way of balancing extremes....

image.gif

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The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 54/44 the mean of 49 was -11 below average for the date. That high of 54 was the 7 coldest for any May 18 at GR. The average H/L at Grand Rapids is now 71/50. At Lansing the average H/L is now 70/48, at Muskegon it is 69/48 and at Holland it's 69/49. There was 0.26" of rain here at my house and the official rain fall for GRR was 0.23" At Muskegon there was only 0.11" at Lansing there was 0.23 and at Holland 0.27" so not a lot of rain just a kind of cool wet damp day. The overnight low both here at my house and at GRR was 52 and at this time it is cloudy and 53 here.

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Big storms possible over Iowa today with a decent threat of tornadoes over northern Iowa.

day1otlk_1200.gif

day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

From the SPC:

Upper Midwest...
   An upper-level low will move eastward across southern Saskatchewan
   today as west-southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the northern
   Plains and Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will advance
   southeastward across the Dakotas as a low deepens ahead of the
   front. A warm front attendant to the low will advance northward
   across southern Minnesota. Surface dewpoints along and south of the
   front will be in the 60s F, which will result in moderate
   instability by afternoon across much of the moist sector.
   Surface-based thunderstorms are most likely to develop along the
   warm front during the afternoon from southeastern Minnesota
   east-southeastward into western and central Wisconsin. As the cold
   front advances southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley during the
   early evening, thunderstorm coverage is forecast to expand
   southwestward across much of Iowa into far eastern Nebraska. MCS
   development appears likely across parts of the Upper Midwest during
   the evening into the overnight period.

   RAP forecast soundings at 21Z, from the warm front in southeast
   Minnesota southwestward across the moist sector into northern and
   central Iowa, show an impressive thermodynamic environment. MLCAPE
   is forecast to be in the 2500 to 4000 J/kg range with 700-500 mb
   lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This combined with 0-6 km shear around 50
   knot will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of
   greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more
   intense supercells. By late afternoon, 0-3 storm relative helicity
   along this same corridor is forecast to be in the 350 to 450 m2/s2
   range. Hodographs are long and curved suggesting that tornadoes will
   be likely with the more intense supercells. A strong tornado or two
   will be possible along the western edge of the low-level jet during
   the late afternoon and early evening from far western Wisconsin into
   west-central Iowa. Wind damage will also be possible with the
   stronger cells, especially if an MCS can become organized during the
   evening.
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15 hours ago, jaster220 said:

How's autumn treating ya bud??

It feels awkward being this chilly when we are approaching late May amigo. Hopefully mother nature will cooperate down the road.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Big storms possible over Iowa today with a decent threat of tornadoes over northern Iowa.

day1otlk_1200.gif

day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

From the SPC:

Upper Midwest...
   An upper-level low will move eastward across southern Saskatchewan
   today as west-southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the northern
   Plains and Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will advance
   southeastward across the Dakotas as a low deepens ahead of the
   front. A warm front attendant to the low will advance northward
   across southern Minnesota. Surface dewpoints along and south of the
   front will be in the 60s F, which will result in moderate
   instability by afternoon across much of the moist sector.
   Surface-based thunderstorms are most likely to develop along the
   warm front during the afternoon from southeastern Minnesota
   east-southeastward into western and central Wisconsin. As the cold
   front advances southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley during the
   early evening, thunderstorm coverage is forecast to expand
   southwestward across much of Iowa into far eastern Nebraska. MCS
   development appears likely across parts of the Upper Midwest during
   the evening into the overnight period.

   RAP forecast soundings at 21Z, from the warm front in southeast
   Minnesota southwestward across the moist sector into northern and
   central Iowa, show an impressive thermodynamic environment. MLCAPE
   is forecast to be in the 2500 to 4000 J/kg range with 700-500 mb
   lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This combined with 0-6 km shear around 50
   knot will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of
   greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more
   intense supercells. By late afternoon, 0-3 storm relative helicity
   along this same corridor is forecast to be in the 350 to 450 m2/s2
   range. Hodographs are long and curved suggesting that tornadoes will
   be likely with the more intense supercells. A strong tornado or two
   will be possible along the western edge of the low-level jet during
   the late afternoon and early evening from far western Wisconsin into
   west-central Iowa. Wind damage will also be possible with the
   stronger cells, especially if an MCS can become organized during the
   evening.

The threat zone has grown a bit since yesterday. Hopefully it will clear off soon so we can get some destabilization. Cloudy right now but definitely feels humid. Had a light shower during the night.

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Gorgeous day outside w plentiful sunshine and temps trying to warm up. Atm, 64F. Highs should make it in the 70s.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The storm events out here are a bit more fickle than I realized. I was only just barely outside of the slight risk area, and got completely left out of any thunder/lightning yesterday. A few tornado warnings were issued in SE Kentucky but none confirmed so far. Some hail up to 1.5".

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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1 hour ago, Timmy Supercell said:

The storm events out here are a bit more fickle than I realized. I was only just barely outside of the slight risk area, and got completely left out of any thunder/lightning yesterday. A few tornado warnings were issued in SE Kentucky but none confirmed so far. Some hail up to 1.5".

Well you’ve been moved into the slight risk for today. 🤞 

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Wow.  
89* at 1pm. Awesome.
This is more normal. Although they’re forecasting 96* high at 5pm.  Remains to be seen.  
Lower temps are on the horizon.  
I’m going to grab it and enjoy while I can.   

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The HRRR continues to show nothing in Iowa later today.  Other models still show storms developing.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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34 minutes ago, Phil said:

Well you’ve been moved into the slight risk for today. 🤞 

But now that I'm outside the Enhanced Risk maybe that means no thunder for the lesser again! 😜

Maybe I'll get something this time though. 

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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2 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

But now that I'm outside the Enhanced Risk maybe that means no thunder for the lesser again! 😜

Maybe I'll get something this time though. 

At least you have a chance at something. 😝

Nada again here today.

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Well that started up quicker than yesterday. 

KJKL_loop (11).gif

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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First real ride of the warm season last Sunday. Parks-n-Rec region due west of me has a nice linear biking pathway. Just a random rest break along the way ended up being a reminder that I was traversing the region of Michigan's last strong twister. Iirc, 32 years separated this EF3 from it's predecessor "F3" in Kalamazoo. Ignore that they used the old F3 scale for the winds. Interesting that one decade later you wouldn't have clue of the amount of trees lost in that aerial photo! I didn't know until I saw the marker.

 

IMG_20220515_190545072.jpg

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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3 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Well that started up quicker than yesterday. 

KJKL_loop (11).gif

And apparently it died faster too.

Wtf is up this year? 😂

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First heatwave of the summer a cometh. Low 90s likely tomorrow, while upper 90s to near 100°F are possible over the weekend.

Unfortunately convection looks capped/confined mostly to the high terrain. Sucks.

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56 minutes ago, Phil said:

And apparently it died faster too.

Wtf is up this year? 😂

If I get a storm, will have to be nocturnal. We should be at that time of year now where the sun going down doesn't really harm these much.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Well here in Southeast Iowa  we are marching towards  the driest May in my 15 yrs here! We are sitting at .90  but  most of that fell first few days! Basically  over 2 weeks and no significant  rain is rare here in May. I had come to trust May for  weekly rain more than all other months. Theres still some  moisture  few inches down. But seeds and plants are beginning  to show stress!  We have been watering  the garden for  10 days now.  These wild swings in precip in midwest  drive me crazy!   Ive researched it and the bermuda triangle of Ottumwa  Kirksville  to Peoria  has the  most extreme  swings in precip as anywhere in midwest. 

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34 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

If I get a storm, will have to be nocturnal. We should be at that time of year now where the sun going down doesn't really harm these much.

Yeah the seasons are changing quickly now. Instability is rarely a problem by late May/early June. An “average” summer day is something like 1000 SBCAPE, lol.

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