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May 2022 Observations & Discussions


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6 hours ago, Tom said:

I just heard on the news that they are sending armed guards to protect the food in places in Iowa?  Any confirmation? 
 

Edit: Its in Des Moines

Which news source? my in laws live in Des Moines and they haven’t seen anything 

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7 hours ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Next Marginal Risk coming up (tomorrow) covers all of KY. We're nearing the end of Spring and I have not experienced any really frequent lightning so far at my new location.

But at least I have reached the double digits on thunder days!

Same bro. Been a sucky start for the mid-Atlantic.

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We might approach 100 degrees Saturday.

Disturbingly early for this s**t. At least humidity won’t be too bad. Dewpoints only in the 60s.

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6 hours ago, BMT said:

Can't confirm this personally - but i work down by the Airport in CR where local National Guard is located, and i've seen many convoys on the move in the last week or so.  

I'm going to play really dumb here.  Protect food from what?  I haven't seen anything at all and I work right next to the Eastern Iowa Airport.  There has been no presence at all at the local grocery stores where I live.  I'm completely out of the loop on this one I guess.  

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Season Snowfall: 0.00"

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19 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

I'm going to play really dumb here.  Protect food from what?  I haven't seen anything at all and I work right next to the Eastern Iowa Airport.  There has been no presence at all at the local grocery stores where I live.  I'm completely out of the loop on this one I guess.  

Oh I agree.  No clue!  Just thought it’s been odd with all the activity as of late.  Just sharing an observation.  Could be totally normal and I’ve just never witnessed it.  

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2 hours ago, Phil said:

We might approach 100 degrees Saturday.

Disturbingly early for this s**t. At least humidity won’t be too bad. Dewpoints only in the 60s.

Well the low humidity is probably why. And it’s not that concerining…. You holding the same latitude as the desert SW plus low humidity in mid May…. No surprise given any appreciable ridging. No guarantee that will hold into the Summer.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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34 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Well the low humidity is probably why. And it’s not that concerining…. You holding the same latitude as the desert SW plus low humidity in mid May…. No surprise given any appreciable ridging. No guarantee that will hold into the Summer.

Oh low humidity definitely won’t last. Lol. A summer without humidity here is analogous to Seattle having subfreezing highs every day for an entire winter.

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

Oh low humidity definitely won’t last. Lol. A summer without humidity here is analogous to Seattle having subfreezing highs every day for an entire winter.

I meant the 100°F weather ;)

Also bad analogy, given 2022-23

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Boy, I'm really digging what the 0z EPS is serving up to close out May, but esp wrt MDW weekend.  After what will be a very chill weekend into the middle part of next week, the stout SW ridge will fire up and blow some of that Summer Sizzling heat into the Plains/MW just in the nick of time for nearly everyone on here to celebrate the unofficial start to Summer with a warm/hot welcome (depending on your local).  What a well-timed warm up!

image.gif

 

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Texas will see another hot 98* day.  
However Sunday will bring us a 4 day stretch in the 80’s with Sunday in the high 70’s and possible rain ! 
 

We’re seeing an early summer in the southern plains and with the power company howling at us to turn up our thermostats, It’s going to be a long-a** summer.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 67/46. With a departure of -3.1 that brought a end to the 8 days in a row of above average days at Grand Rapids. The overnight low both here at my house and at GRR was 45. When the clouds moved in it did warm up it 50 and with the rain now started it is at 49. So far here at my house I have recorded 0.06" of rain fall. It still looks like a brief warm up on Friday with some storm chances and then down to below average for the weekend and at least the start of next week. So far May's mean at Grand Rapids of 60.3 is +3.5. At Muskegon their mean of 61.1 is +5.5 At Lansing there mean of 60.8 is +4.8 and at Holland their mean of 60.1 is +4.3. May so far has been well above average at this point.

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Storms last night produced a lot of thunder and lightning but not much rain I picked up .55in, the heavier rainfall was just off to my south and west.

I’m shocked you didn’t get more rain last night as we did. It was pretty neat seeing the curling ball on radar move right over Topeka and Lawrence. 

we got A LOT of heavy rain with the cells moving over us causing a flash flood warning for a couple hours. My weather app says only 1.5 inches but That’s wrong as we got that easily in the first hour. 

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I picked up 0.16" of rain this morning, enough to fill the rain barrel.  We did get our first light rumble of thunder of the entire month.  Our next chance of rain is light showers behind the strong front Saturday, so we won't hear thunder again for a while.  I sure hope storm action in June is not as pitiful as May.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I picked up 1.68" overnight in MBY.

Topeka is officially at 6.51" in May as of 5/17 and received additional rain after midnight. That is +3.77" for the month and now +1.48" for 2022. We've done pretty well considering how dry it has been elsewhere.

 

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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Cold front trending slower across guidance.

Sunday now looks like another day in the mid-90s. The way the Bermuda High is building in reminds me so much of 2010 and 2011. Gonna be a brutal summer, I think.

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Currently at 51F w rain. Radar looks very impressive to my west. That is some really hvy rain coming.

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Final Snowfall as of today June 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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4 hours ago, tStacsh said:

What a terrible spring.  Going to get cold and rainy for a long time as wel

I would tend to agree with you on that. We have had one week of summer like weather and the rest of the spring has been cold and wet.

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

The total rain fall here in my area was just 0.25" but that was better than no rain.

True.

Also, the back edge of the rainfall is now alomost starting to approach my area. Rain should finally tapor off in a couple of hours. My area looks like it picked up near .50", give or take. Like you said, better some rain then no rain. 

Big cooldown after Fridays severe weather and warmth. Lows could be dropping in the 30s for some.

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Final Snowfall as of today June 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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Send us some of that cool rain guys!! 

I know it’ll dip Sunday, but we need about 3 weeks of it.  It’s 97 out the wind blowing like crazy.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Well, summer was nice. Lasted longer than expected too. Strangest compressed spring in memory. Some still have Daffodils in bloom (can be as early as March), while most Lilacs are also in full bloom (often a June thing). 😐 😶

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 hour ago, Niko said:

True.

Also, the back edge of the rainfall is now alomost starting to approach my area. Rain should finally tapor off in a couple of hours. My area looks like it picked up near .50", give or take. Like you said, better some rain then no rain. 

Big cooldown after Fridays severe weather and warmth. Lows could be dropping in the 30s for some.

How's autumn treating ya bud??

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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34 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Temperatures are fluctuating on the East Coast too. This time of year is so fickle. 

Yup. Gonna torch this weekend and we might not get any convection to show for it.

Next week looks interesting, but still a ways off.

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Looking ahead for my area, today and then the next 48 looking like a warm punch before a striking reminder its still May down here.

In terms of volatility and dynamics, this has been the most extreme, windy and bi-polar the weather has been in at least 25 years here.

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Just now, OKwx2k4 said:

Looking ahead for my area, today and then the next 48 looking like a warm punch before a striking reminder its still May down here.

In terms of volatility and dynamics, this has been the most extreme, windy and bi-polar the weather has been in at least 25 years here.

That seems to be the theme for many of us on here since last Autumn.  I'm really curious and interested to see if this will continue into next year.  

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It was a chilly, dreary, cloudy day yesterday which has been all to common this Spring.  I fought hard not to, but in the end, I had to turn the Furnace On to get some warmth in the house.  It won't be the last time this season I'll be turning it on bc the forecast calls for some chilly nights ahead this weekend into mid next week.  Before then, however, after the fog burns off this morning we will be seeing temps jump into the 80's today and tomorrow.  Summer returns, storm chances return....then, back to chilly and damp weather for the weekend!   Ugghh!  Don't worry, bc just like in 2019, Sudden Summer returns for the MW/GL's.  

I'm glad to see the 0z GEFS turn much warmer for the MDW and pretty much agreeing with the EPS.  The 0z Euro showing what is likely to happen as the HEAT and HUMIDITY Surge into the majority of our Sub to close out MAY.  

 

1.gif

 

What a wild swing for CO and the PanHandle.....From Winter to Instant Summer in a span of a few days...

1.png

 

 

Finally, the modeling mostly agree that we will finish off met Spring with one last GL's cutter mid next week from KC to Chicago to GRR....another eastern ag belt soaker is in the works...

2.png

 

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Hang in there folks, bc the pattern in the extended is something I had been pondering on from a few weeks ago when I was in AZ analyzing the pattern.  What will be a "Central CONUS Chill"....it will eventually Flip to the "Summer Sizzle" theme for JUNE....Mother Nature has her way of balancing extremes....

image.gif

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The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 54/44 the mean of 49 was -11 below average for the date. That high of 54 was the 7 coldest for any May 18 at GR. The average H/L at Grand Rapids is now 71/50. At Lansing the average H/L is now 70/48, at Muskegon it is 69/48 and at Holland it's 69/49. There was 0.26" of rain here at my house and the official rain fall for GRR was 0.23" At Muskegon there was only 0.11" at Lansing there was 0.23 and at Holland 0.27" so not a lot of rain just a kind of cool wet damp day. The overnight low both here at my house and at GRR was 52 and at this time it is cloudy and 53 here.

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Big storms possible over Iowa today with a decent threat of tornadoes over northern Iowa.

day1otlk_1200.gif

day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

From the SPC:

Upper Midwest...
   An upper-level low will move eastward across southern Saskatchewan
   today as west-southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the northern
   Plains and Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will advance
   southeastward across the Dakotas as a low deepens ahead of the
   front. A warm front attendant to the low will advance northward
   across southern Minnesota. Surface dewpoints along and south of the
   front will be in the 60s F, which will result in moderate
   instability by afternoon across much of the moist sector.
   Surface-based thunderstorms are most likely to develop along the
   warm front during the afternoon from southeastern Minnesota
   east-southeastward into western and central Wisconsin. As the cold
   front advances southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley during the
   early evening, thunderstorm coverage is forecast to expand
   southwestward across much of Iowa into far eastern Nebraska. MCS
   development appears likely across parts of the Upper Midwest during
   the evening into the overnight period.

   RAP forecast soundings at 21Z, from the warm front in southeast
   Minnesota southwestward across the moist sector into northern and
   central Iowa, show an impressive thermodynamic environment. MLCAPE
   is forecast to be in the 2500 to 4000 J/kg range with 700-500 mb
   lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This combined with 0-6 km shear around 50
   knot will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of
   greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more
   intense supercells. By late afternoon, 0-3 storm relative helicity
   along this same corridor is forecast to be in the 350 to 450 m2/s2
   range. Hodographs are long and curved suggesting that tornadoes will
   be likely with the more intense supercells. A strong tornado or two
   will be possible along the western edge of the low-level jet during
   the late afternoon and early evening from far western Wisconsin into
   west-central Iowa. Wind damage will also be possible with the
   stronger cells, especially if an MCS can become organized during the
   evening.
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15 hours ago, jaster220 said:

How's autumn treating ya bud??

It feels awkward being this chilly when we are approaching late May amigo. Hopefully mother nature will cooperate down the road.

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Final Snowfall as of today June 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Big storms possible over Iowa today with a decent threat of tornadoes over northern Iowa.

day1otlk_1200.gif

day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

From the SPC:

Upper Midwest...
   An upper-level low will move eastward across southern Saskatchewan
   today as west-southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the northern
   Plains and Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will advance
   southeastward across the Dakotas as a low deepens ahead of the
   front. A warm front attendant to the low will advance northward
   across southern Minnesota. Surface dewpoints along and south of the
   front will be in the 60s F, which will result in moderate
   instability by afternoon across much of the moist sector.
   Surface-based thunderstorms are most likely to develop along the
   warm front during the afternoon from southeastern Minnesota
   east-southeastward into western and central Wisconsin. As the cold
   front advances southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley during the
   early evening, thunderstorm coverage is forecast to expand
   southwestward across much of Iowa into far eastern Nebraska. MCS
   development appears likely across parts of the Upper Midwest during
   the evening into the overnight period.

   RAP forecast soundings at 21Z, from the warm front in southeast
   Minnesota southwestward across the moist sector into northern and
   central Iowa, show an impressive thermodynamic environment. MLCAPE
   is forecast to be in the 2500 to 4000 J/kg range with 700-500 mb
   lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This combined with 0-6 km shear around 50
   knot will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of
   greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more
   intense supercells. By late afternoon, 0-3 storm relative helicity
   along this same corridor is forecast to be in the 350 to 450 m2/s2
   range. Hodographs are long and curved suggesting that tornadoes will
   be likely with the more intense supercells. A strong tornado or two
   will be possible along the western edge of the low-level jet during
   the late afternoon and early evening from far western Wisconsin into
   west-central Iowa. Wind damage will also be possible with the
   stronger cells, especially if an MCS can become organized during the
   evening.

The threat zone has grown a bit since yesterday. Hopefully it will clear off soon so we can get some destabilization. Cloudy right now but definitely feels humid. Had a light shower during the night.

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Gorgeous day outside w plentiful sunshine and temps trying to warm up. Atm, 64F. Highs should make it in the 70s.

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Final Snowfall as of today June 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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The storm events out here are a bit more fickle than I realized. I was only just barely outside of the slight risk area, and got completely left out of any thunder/lightning yesterday. A few tornado warnings were issued in SE Kentucky but none confirmed so far. Some hail up to 1.5".

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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