May Winter Continue 2022 PNW

[Phil]

Here’s the 18z GFS @ 96hrs vs 12z EPS valid at same time.

Only 4 days out. One of these will be wrong.

[FroYoBro]

A heavy shower has been training over my area for the last hour or so. Lots of nourishing rain. 

Edited May 2, 2022 by FroYoBro

[snow_wizard]

Wow!  The EPS PNA forecast has dropped from -1 to -2.5 over the past few runs for the early part of next week.  The EPO is also forecast to drop which could indicate a period of cool / drier weather.  Might be a frost opportunity coming up.

[snow_wizard]

Meanwhile another ridiculously cool day today with highs around 10 degrees below normal.

[Cascadia_Wx]

EPS is definitely an improvement over previous runs 

[Cascadia_Wx]

58/44 day here with widely scattered showers. Picked up .14” so far today 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well over an inch of rain today.

[Deweydog]

50 days until sun angles start DECREASING.

Edited May 3, 2022 by Deweydog

[TacomaWaWx]

56/47 today. Haven’t had any rain since this morning and looks doubtful we will get more. Heading out to the island now pretty decent evening 53 and cloudy. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

@Joshua Lake Oswego

[The Swamp]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Meanwhile another ridiculously cool day today with highs around 10 degrees below normal.

I sure hope not.  Got some of my garden planted and want it to actually live, thrive grow and it needs warm sunshine for that.

 

All we have now is slug weather.

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

50 days until sun angles start DECREASING.

CFS agrees. Phil does NOT

[BLI snowman]

57 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

@Joshua Lake Oswego

 

Yeah, huge difference today between here and there. Only 0.18" here today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1.29” here today.

[Deweydog]

31 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

CFS agrees. Phil does NOT

The ensemble mean is clearly smoothing over what will be some very dynamic sundial readings in the week two period.

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

50 days until sun angles start DECREASING.

Not much change in sun angle from June 14 to 28 expected this year. 

[LowerGarfield]

16 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

God is blessing us. 

This would be great for me as well. I'd be thrilled with even an abnormally dry at this point. Though Central Washington is struggling more than anywhere else in our state for rain, making my concerns minor in comparision.

[LowerGarfield]

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

50 days until sun angles start DECREASING.

I count the days until Aug 2nd or Aug 3rd which is the day in E. WA and North Central Idaho, after which daily average high temperatures start to drop.

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

@Joshua Lake Oswego

Unfortunately, I mainly missed out. I’m in extreme SW Lake Oswego. Watching the radar was extremely frustrating. 1 or so mile north of here got deluged. We finally got in on the action around 5pm when the band sagged south.

[smerfylicious]

Incredible. 

 

 

[LowerGarfield]

I had 0.26 inches of rain today and had a good downpour when the cold front passed this afternoon. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Yeah, huge difference today between here and there. Only 0.18" here today.

Getting a decent shower here now, should pad the totals for the day.

There is still a band of bright sky to the west while it’s raining which makes for kind of a cool scene 

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Getting a decent shower here now, should pad the totals for the day.

There is still a band of bright sky to the west while it’s raining which makes for kind of a cool scene 

Yeah, we had the same dynamic here shortly before sunset in a very narrow and slow moving shower. The beautiful contrasts we can see in the sky conditions is definitely one of the best things about our springs.

[Phil]

5 hours ago, Phil said:

That thing right there. 18z GFS erroneously absorbs it back into the Aleutian Low, similar to early last month.

And sure enough, the 00z GFS has made a significant correction inside day 4.

[Omegaraptor]

Impressively chilly in the southern Willamette and Umpqua valleys today.

High of 51 at Eugene is the coldest high on this date since 1963. Record is 50.

52 at Roseburg is a -16 departure, and the record for this date is 51.

So close, yet so far.

[Phil]

LOL..this is only 99hrs out. What a joke.  

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

LOL..this is only 99hrs out.  

It just came around to the ECMWF solution.    

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

LOL..this is only 99hrs out. What a joke.  

A night and day difference, highly predictable too. And this is where my tax dollars are going... 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It just came around to the ECMWF solution.    

I don’t understand why we can’t do better. The fact we can all spot+predict these errors via the naked eye is the scary part.

This is possibly worse than the old ECMWF bias of trapping ULLs in the SW US. Remember that? Ahh the good ‘ole days.

[Meatyorologist]

It looks increasingly likely that we will be seeing very potent Spring airmasses two months in a row. That late season SSW sure did shake things up quite a bit, because we've rapidly flipped the script from 2012-2022 +EPO/+PDO to a 2011 style progression. Who saw this coming?

[Phil]

I think it has farther to correct as well. The 18z EPS and control shifted further west with the ridge axis vs 12z. GFS/GEFS still a progressive/nudged-over outlier.

[Meatyorologist]

Typical May airmass, nothing to see here

[Meatyorologist]

Sub 522dm thickness off the OR coast at hr126. That's a serious airmass to be advecting onshore in March, let alone May.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Typical May airmass, nothing to see here

The coldest 850mb anomalies actually bypass WA state and dive into CA...

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The coldest 850mb anomalies actually bypass WA state and dive into CA...

Yeah the best jet dynamics slam into the OR/CA border and then that whole airmass advects southward with ease. It's like a time machine back to 2011.

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It looks increasingly likely that we will be seeing very potent Spring airmasses two months in a row. That late season SSW sure did shake things up quite a bit, because we've rapidly flipped the script from 2012-2022 +EPO/+PDO to a 2011 style progression. Who saw this coming?

Hopefully this is the anti-2013.

Recall the SSW in January 2013 is what set in motion the collapse of the multiyear -PDO/-PMM/-NAO regime we were in.

Though it could be SSW was simply the conduit through which the change manifested, as the solar maximum IPWP extension was due anyway. It’s the same reason I’ve been targeting the early 2020s for a strong multiyear Niña/-PDO since at least 2016. The primal source for this variability is external+resonant forcing(s) on the Indo-Pacific warm pool.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Hopefully this is the anti-2013.

Recall the SSW in January 2013 is what set in motion the collapse of the multiyear -PDO/-PMM/-NAO regime we were in.

Though it could be SSW was simply the conduit through which the change manifested, as the solar maximum IPWP extension was due anyway.

It’s the same reason I’ve been targeting the early 2020s for a strong multiyear Niña/-PDO since at least 2016.

If so, hopefully our decade long sabbatical of much warmer and drier than average warm seasons will end this year.

[Omegaraptor]

Kind of have a gut feeling for next winter being all or nothing. Either an at-least 2008-tier monster, or a dud. Not feeling an in-between outcome.

[smerfylicious]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hopefully this is the anti-2013.

Recall the SSW in January 2013 is what set in motion the collapse of the multiyear -PDO/-PMM/-NAO regime we were in.

Though it could be SSW was simply the conduit through which the change manifested, as the solar maximum IPWP extension was due anyway. It’s the same reason I’ve been targeting the early 2020s for a strong multiyear Niña/-PDO since at least 2016. The primal source for this variability is external+resonant forcing(s) on the Indo-Pacific warm pool.

I would prefer this to be the anti-1976, but i'll settle for 2013

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

If so, hopefully our decade long sabbatical of much warmer and drier than average warm seasons will end this year.

We’ll see. The new ECMWF weeklies do offer some hope for those wanting a legitimately cool start to summer in the PNW.

The subsidence that develops between 130E-dateline (basically over the eastern IPWP) in June (as modeled) is strongly correlated to warm season -PNA. It was one of the hallmarks of the 2008-12 era.