Meatyorologist Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Phil said: We’ll see. The new ECMWF weeklies do offer some hope for those wanting a legitimately cool start to summer in the PNW. The subsidence that develops between 150E-dateline (basically over the eastern IPWP) is strongly correlated to warm season -PNA. It was a hallmark of the 2008-12 era. Great, now it's guaranteed to torch! 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 Here’s how the EPS has been trending. Still farther west with the ridge than the GFS/GEFS. 3 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 Brrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 17 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Brrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!! Snowmen get cold too? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said: It looks increasingly likely that we will be seeing very potent Spring airmasses two months in a row. That late season SSW sure did shake things up quite a bit, because we've rapidly flipped the script from 2012-2022 +EPO/+PDO to a 2011 style progression. Who saw this coming? This one isn't the same magnitude. This upcoming one is probably a once every 2-3 years event prior to 2013, and it doesn't look to last too long. April's was a true freak event. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 That is one amazing GFS run tonight. Incredibly cold trough and much drier. Kind of getting a 1950s look recently. 1 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said: Kind of have a gut feeling for next winter being all or nothing. Either an at-least 2008-tier monster, or a dud. Not feeling an in-between outcome. We are in a cold mode right now. Great prospects for the next year if you like below normal temps. I'll be damn sorry to see El Nino come when it does. It still remains to be seen if we can get the hot summer monkey off our backs though. This year will probably be our best shot for a while. Other than that I think the next year will be solidly cold overall. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 4 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 Going through some other -ENSO Mays, this event stands out remarkably in terms of SSTAs. Here’s a gif, running 2022 vs 2021, 2017, 2012, 2011, 2008, 2007, 2001, 2000, and 1999. 2022 is next-level. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 The only satellite-era La Niña that was moderate or strong during boreal summer was 1988. That one was just getting started but did so well ahead of climatology. Most fitting derivative since both 2022 and 1988 strengthen into/through boreal spring. Global SSTAs were much colder in the 1980s, so given that context you could argue 2022 is even more impressive. 4 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 20 minutes ago, Phil said: The only satellite-era La Niña that was moderate or strong during boreal summer was 1988. That one was just getting started but did so well ahead of climatology. Most fitting derivative since both 2022 and 1988 strengthen into/through boreal spring. Global SSTAs were much colder in the 1980s, so given that context you could argue 2022 is even more impressive. The following February was pretty kold! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Phil said: The only satellite-era La Niña that was moderate or strong during boreal summer was 1988. That one was just getting started but did so well ahead of climatology. Most fitting derivative since both 2022 and 1988 strengthen into/through boreal spring. Global SSTAs were much colder in the 1980s, so given that context you could argue 2022 is even more impressive. So. Much. Red. Heartbreaking to see. Though in a very ironic sense it is exactly as blue now (or even more so) than it was in 1988 in the precise locations where it counts for cooler than normal weather in the PNW. 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 06z GFS vs 06z Euro, 78hrs out. Still substantial differences. I think the GFS is going to adjust further on its 12z run. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 14 hours ago, Meatyorologist said: That’ll happen when your soil has zero moisture left and is effectively a massive heating blanket. That’s how the dust bowl worked in the 20s and 30s. I’ve been reading up on the dustbowl in this area and it’s freaking insane. In all my time living here I’ve never experienced blowing dust (except for very localized stuff). Yet it was somehow a regular occurrence during the spring months in the 1930s. A bonafide haboob roared into downtown DC on March 21st, 1935. Can’t fathom such a thing happening today. This is a real, unedited photo of the Lincoln memorial that day. http://mallhistory.org/items/show/167 6 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 The 30-day averaged SOI is more positive now than it was at any time during the winter. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 Still raining 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Still raining Why does our weather always SUCK? 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: Why does our weather always SUCK? So Jesse can be happy. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 14 hours ago, Deweydog said: 50 days until sun angles start DECREASING. snow by August 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Kayla Posted May 3, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 Very heavy rain mixing with snow here this morning. Already 0.65" on the day. Currently 35F. Starting to think we might actually kick most of this Northwest drought (barring southern OR) by mid month with SWE snowpack in the region sitting at average to well above average now with a whole lot more moisture to come over the next ~10 days. 18 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 just a bit different. I think GFS needs to sit down and read a nice book 3 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 17 hours ago, Deweydog said: 50 days until sun angles start DECREASING. Ugh. Can we at least wait until the first heat wave before posting about this again? 6 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 No summer in sight!! 2 3 2 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 2 hours ago, Kayla said: Very heavy rain mixing with snow here this morning. Already 0.65" on the day. Currently 35F. Starting to think we might actually kick most of this Northwest drought (barring southern OR) by mid month with SWE snowpack in the region sitting at average to well above average now with a whole lot more moisture to come over the next ~10 days. Saw it is supposed to be 70 there Thursday. Bet that'll feel amazing after the Spring you've had. 4 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post SouthHillFrosty Posted May 3, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 Nice day in Redding so far 13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: No summer in sight!! We all got used to Hitler’s Birthday being the new 5th of July 2 1 4 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 51 in Tacoma after a low of 47. 51 here on the island as well and cloudy. It’s a little chilly but I think I’ll still go out and kayak anyways later today. 6 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 58 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: just a bit different. I think GFS needs to sit down and read a nice book To be fair... the 12Z ECMWF is wildly different than its 00Z run for Thursday night and Friday morning as well. I think part of the issue is just the volatility of the pattern. New 12Z run on top... and 00Z run on the bottom. Huge difference for the ECMWF within 3 days. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 38 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said: Saw it is supposed to be 70 there Thursday. Bet that'll feel amazing after the Spring you've had. Yes, can’t wait! After today’s soaking the vegetation should really start popping these next couple of warm days. I’m really looking forward to getting some yard work done and getting the garden prepped before the next push of moisture moves in over the weekend. 2 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Moist 2 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 6 1 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, Phil said: With the exception of March, this spring has been a throwback to 2008-2012. 2 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 6 hours ago, Phil said: The 30-day averaged SOI is more positive now than it was at any time during the winter. Larry Cosgrove is still somehow convince that we go weak el nino by late summer.we will see 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 1 hour ago, BLI snowman said: No summer in sight!! Depends where you live. I think I’m gonna get death-ridged. 2 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, weatherfan2012 said: Larry Cosgrove is still somehow convince that we go weak el nino by late summer.we will see I’ll eat a bug and post the video here if that happens. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Phil said: Depends where you live. I think I’m gonna get death-ridged. Can’t have troughs without ridges. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, Phil said: I’ll eat a bug and post the video here if that happens. Agreed lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 Some steady rain here the past hour or so. 29 days with measurable rain since the beginning of April at Shawnigan Lake. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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