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May Winter Continue 2022 PNW


The Blob

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

We’ll see. The new ECMWF weeklies do offer some hope for those wanting a legitimately cool start to summer in the PNW.

The subsidence that develops between 150E-dateline (basically over the eastern IPWP) is strongly correlated to warm season -PNA. It was a hallmark of the 2008-12 era.

A822C25C-3F57-4E6B-9151-EB60B7DA2582.jpeg

Great, now it's guaranteed to torch! 🔥🔥🔥

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

It looks increasingly likely that we will be seeing very potent Spring airmasses two months in a row. That late season SSW sure did shake things up quite a bit, because we've rapidly flipped the script from 2012-2022 +EPO/+PDO to a 2011 style progression. Who saw this coming?

This one isn't the same magnitude. This upcoming one is probably a once every 2-3 years event prior to 2013, and it doesn't look to last too long. April's was a true freak event.

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That is one amazing GFS run tonight.  Incredibly cold trough and much drier.  Kind of getting a 1950s look recently.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

Kind of have a gut feeling for next winter being all or nothing. Either an at-least 2008-tier monster, or a dud. Not feeling an in-between outcome.

We are in a cold mode right now.  Great prospects for the next year if you like below normal temps.  I'll be damn sorry to see El Nino come when it does.

It still remains to be seen if we can get the hot summer monkey off our backs though.  This year will probably be our best shot for a while.  Other than that I think the next year will be solidly cold overall.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Going through some other -ENSO Mays, this event stands out remarkably in terms of SSTAs.

Here’s a gif, running 2022 vs 2021, 2017, 2012, 2011, 2008, 2007, 2001, 2000, and 1999. 2022 is next-level.

398D4E33-D9EB-4C90-AAAB-9532BD8083CD.gif

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The only satellite-era La Niña that was moderate or strong during boreal summer was 1988. That one was just getting started but did so well ahead of climatology. Most fitting derivative since both 2022 and 1988 strengthen into/through boreal spring.

Global SSTAs were much colder in the 1980s, so given that context you could argue 2022 is even more impressive.

22AC2F90-FA16-4D1E-8737-1EEDDFFDE346.png46823560-CBDE-4248-A571-F22F52AA5139.png

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20 minutes ago, Phil said:

The only satellite-era La Niña that was moderate or strong during boreal summer was 1988. That one was just getting started but did so well ahead of climatology. Most fitting derivative since both 2022 and 1988 strengthen into/through boreal spring.

Global SSTAs were much colder in the 1980s, so given that context you could argue 2022 is even more impressive.

22AC2F90-FA16-4D1E-8737-1EEDDFFDE346.png46823560-CBDE-4248-A571-F22F52AA5139.png

The following February was pretty kold!

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

The only satellite-era La Niña that was moderate or strong during boreal summer was 1988. That one was just getting started but did so well ahead of climatology. Most fitting derivative since both 2022 and 1988 strengthen into/through boreal spring.

Global SSTAs were much colder in the 1980s, so given that context you could argue 2022 is even more impressive.

22AC2F90-FA16-4D1E-8737-1EEDDFFDE346.png46823560-CBDE-4248-A571-F22F52AA5139.png

So. Much. Red. Heartbreaking to see.

Though in a very ironic sense it is exactly as blue now (or even more so) than it was in 1988 in the precise locations where it counts for cooler than normal weather in the PNW.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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06z GFS vs 06z Euro, 78hrs out.

Still substantial differences. I think the GFS is going to adjust further on its 12z run.

71853E9D-9111-4165-A248-83665DD89C38.gif

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14 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

That’ll happen when your soil has zero moisture left and is effectively a massive heating blanket. That’s how the dust bowl worked in the 20s and 30s.

I’ve been reading up on the dustbowl in this area and it’s freaking insane. In all my time living here I’ve never experienced blowing dust (except for very localized stuff).

Yet it was somehow a regular occurrence during the spring months in the 1930s. A bonafide haboob roared into downtown DC on March 21st, 1935. Can’t fathom such a thing happening today.

This is a real, unedited photo of the Lincoln memorial that day.

http://mallhistory.org/items/show/167

1146A299-35A9-4C97-9521-581B3893BEE6.jpeg

 

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Still raining 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 hours ago, Kayla said:

Very heavy rain mixing with snow here this morning. Already 0.65" on the day. Currently 35F.

Starting to think we might actually kick most of this Northwest drought (barring southern OR) by mid month with SWE snowpack in the region sitting at average to well above average now with a whole lot more moisture to come over the next ~10 days. 

 

 

Saw it is supposed to be 70 there Thursday. Bet that'll feel amazing after the Spring you've had.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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51 in Tacoma after a low of 47. 51 here on the island as well and cloudy. It’s a little chilly but I think I’ll still go out and kayak anyways later today. 

F01F19F0-E1E0-4C9D-B069-5167DF064B2D.jpeg

8DE9BB8D-B2D2-4B8D-8936-B55EE4BDDE47.jpeg

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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58 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

just a bit different. I think GFS needs to sit down and read a nice book image.png.af68e944ed404655fc5da6e1c4a11d94.pngimage.thumb.png.18ad29e8fb1396c13ed21db1b9dffeeb.png

To be fair... the 12Z ECMWF is wildly different than its 00Z run for Thursday night and Friday morning as well.    I think part of the issue is just the volatility of the pattern.   

New 12Z run on top... and 00Z run on the bottom.     Huge difference for the ECMWF within 3 days.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_1hr_inch-1827600.png

ecmwf-deterministic-nw-precip_1hr_inch-1827600 (1).png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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38 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Saw it is supposed to be 70 there Thursday. Bet that'll feel amazing after the Spring you've had.

Yes, can’t wait! After today’s soaking the vegetation should really start popping these next couple of warm days. I’m really looking forward to getting some yard work done and getting the garden prepped before the next push of moisture moves in over the weekend.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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8 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

image.thumb.png.1b0796456438b44ddca0e55fad57a888.png

Moist 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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12 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

With the exception of March, this spring has been a throwback to 2008-2012. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

No summer in sight!!

Depends where you live. 😒

I think I’m gonna get death-ridged.

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4 minutes ago, weatherfan2012 said:

Larry Cosgrove is still somehow convince that we go weak el nino by late summer.we will see

I’ll eat a bug and post the video here if that happens.

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