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May Winter Continue 2022 PNW


The Blob

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This might be the source of the model instability. Coherent CCKW/MJO crossing the Pacific.

That subsidence over the dateline/WPAC returns quickly afterwards, though. Haven’t seen this type of look since 2011.

C1805554-1A8A-493F-8312-4D7D2D90D085.png

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23 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Some steady rain here the past hour or so.  29 days with measurable rain since the beginning of April at Shawnigan Lake. 

About the same here.   

Using 2011 as a guide... there was only 5 dry days in April that year then 15 dry days in May and 20 dry days in June.    Using that benchmark we should start seeing some improvement soon.    At least it might stop raining almost every day.  

Going beyond June... there was 26 dry days in July, 29 in August, and 25 in September in 2011.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Still socked in with low clouds…53 in Tacoma. Cloud deck seems to be thinning a bit…but there’s still high cloud cover too so filtered sunshine at best. Decently chilly day for early May. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

About the same here.   

Using 2011 as a guide... there was only 5 dry days in April that year then 15 dry days in May and 20 dry days in June.    Using that benchmark we should start seeing some improvement soon.    At least it might stop raining almost every day.  

Going beyond June... there was 26 dry days in July, 29 in August, and 25 in September in 2011.    

2011-12 was a pretty wet water year here. January and March being the two wettest months. Snowy too. 

September 2011 was very mild. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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We had 25 days with measurable rainfall in April. Quite the contrast to the last couple years with long dry spells. I’ll have to look when I get home but we might’ve had more precip days this April than 2021 and 2020 combined. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Dribbles and 49 currently. 
.09” so far on the day. 

 

We had drizzle and fog this morning... but the cloud deck lifted and drizzle stopped around 10 a.m.     Its been partly sunny at times since and the deck is dry.    Currently 55 in North Bend.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Sunday looking remarkably chilly in southern Oregon. Could see some daily records fall. The frats have a trip to Shasta Lake this weekend… Sunday might not break out of the 50s there.

Hopefully all the kids make it back alive this year. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

About the same here.   

Using 2011 as a guide... there was only 5 dry days in April that year then 15 dry days in May and 20 dry days in June.    Using that benchmark we should start seeing some improvement soon.    At least it might stop raining almost every day.  

Going beyond June... there was 26 dry days in July, 29 in August, and 25 in September in 2011.    

Feels like we are about to turn the corner after early next week.  Perhaps wishful thinking.  Muddy tire tracks behind the lawn mower every day gets  old. 

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34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My wife just picked the last of the tulips.  They can bloom a long time when the weather stays cool.

20220503_142735.jpg

That’s some nice masonry.

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Topped out at 53 today. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

Sunday looking remarkably chilly in southern Oregon. Could see some daily records fall. The frats have a trip to Shasta Lake this weekend… Sunday might not break out of the 50s there.

Which frat are you in? I'm a phi psi alum.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Super Niña coming?

 

Never had a Super La Nina before, this might enhance the Southern Plains Cockroach Death Ridge.

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Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible!

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Super Niña coming?

 

The summer of 1975 was not all doom and gloom either.    SEA hit 80 for the first time on May 9th.     May, June and July of 1975 were all drier than normal at SEA.   It was 89 degrees at SEA on the 4th of July... and July even finished slightly warmer than normal.    

There was a very wet period during the second half of August... but summer came back in September.   

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36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The summer of 1975 was not all doom and gloom either.    SEA hit 80 for the first time on May 9th.     May, June and July of 1975 were all drier than normal at SEA.   It was 89 degrees at SEA on the 4th of July... and July even finished slightly warmer than normal.    

There was a very wet period during the second half of August... but summer came back in September.   

June 1955 was remarkable here. Not a single 70+ low. Basically unheard of now. Of course July and August turned nasty, but at least there was variability.

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I've been pimping the 1955 analog for a while now...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, MossMan said:

Having taco soup for dinner on this cold damp winter night. 

C2940171-095C-44EA-91E1-4A581C38A304.jpeg

How dare you post that while I’m low carbing. 😡

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4 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Which frat are you in? I'm a phi psi alum.

Not in a frat. Won’t have time for that stuff going into sophomore year and after as I will probably work part time as well. But have many many friends in frats.

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00z GFS cuts the ridging short and drops another potent airmass down around D8.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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GFS would deliver a shot of snow up here Sunday morning...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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53/41 with 0.08” of rain today. Really nice evening, cleared out around 5pm. Currently down to 42. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

GFS would deliver a shot of snow up here Sunday morning...

Saw that. How often does it snow in May for you?

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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13 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Saw that. How often does it snow in May for you?

Not often. I saw snow fall during the cold trough around May 20,2013, didn’t stick though. People  who have lived up here all their lives say it has definitely happened before, in terms of sticking in May. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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No wind and the skies have cleared out a bit. 48 in Tacoma…feels chilly got into the upper 50s this afternoon with a couple sunbreaks in the evening. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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