Phil Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 This might be the source of the model instability. Coherent CCKW/MJO crossing the Pacific. That subsidence over the dateline/WPAC returns quickly afterwards, though. Haven’t seen this type of look since 2011. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 23 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Some steady rain here the past hour or so. 29 days with measurable rain since the beginning of April at Shawnigan Lake. About the same here. Using 2011 as a guide... there was only 5 dry days in April that year then 15 dry days in May and 20 dry days in June. Using that benchmark we should start seeing some improvement soon. At least it might stop raining almost every day. Going beyond June... there was 26 dry days in July, 29 in August, and 25 in September in 2011. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 Still socked in with low clouds…53 in Tacoma. Cloud deck seems to be thinning a bit…but there’s still high cloud cover too so filtered sunshine at best. Decently chilly day for early May. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: About the same here. Using 2011 as a guide... there was only 5 dry days in April that year then 15 dry days in May and 20 dry days in June. Using that benchmark we should start seeing some improvement soon. At least it might stop raining almost every day. Going beyond June... there was 26 dry days in July, 29 in August, and 25 in September in 2011. 2011-12 was a pretty wet water year here. January and March being the two wettest months. Snowy too. September 2011 was very mild. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 We had 25 days with measurable rainfall in April. Quite the contrast to the last couple years with long dry spells. I’ll have to look when I get home but we might’ve had more precip days this April than 2021 and 2020 combined. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 Dribbles and 49 currently. .09” so far on the day. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: Dribbles and 49 currently. .09” so far on the day. We had drizzle and fog this morning... but the cloud deck lifted and drizzle stopped around 10 a.m. Its been partly sunny at times since and the deck is dry. Currently 55 in North Bend. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 Sunday looking remarkably chilly in southern Oregon. Could see some daily records fall. The frats have a trip to Shasta Lake this weekend… Sunday might not break out of the 50s there. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Phil said: I’ll eat a bug and post the video here if that happens. What kind of bug? And just to clarify...."eating a bug" ≠ "smoking a roach" 4 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Sunday looking remarkably chilly in southern Oregon. Could see some daily records fall. The frats have a trip to Shasta Lake this weekend… Sunday might not break out of the 50s there. Hopefully all the kids make it back alive this year. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 Interestingly, PDX has seen an 80+ reading in May by the 8th in each year since 2011. Looking like we might comfortably breeze past that this year. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 My wife just picked the last of the tulips. They can bloom a long time when the weather stays cool. 8 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: About the same here. Using 2011 as a guide... there was only 5 dry days in April that year then 15 dry days in May and 20 dry days in June. Using that benchmark we should start seeing some improvement soon. At least it might stop raining almost every day. Going beyond June... there was 26 dry days in July, 29 in August, and 25 in September in 2011. Feels like we are about to turn the corner after early next week. Perhaps wishful thinking. Muddy tire tracks behind the lawn mower every day gets old. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: My wife just picked the last of the tulips. They can bloom a long time when the weather stays cool. That’s some nice masonry. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 I think Tim took over my work computer! It keeps flashing “Humid” 4 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 Topped out at 53 today. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 6 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 Super Niña coming? 4 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted May 3, 2022 Report Share Posted May 3, 2022 2 hours ago, Omegaraptor said: Sunday looking remarkably chilly in southern Oregon. Could see some daily records fall. The frats have a trip to Shasta Lake this weekend… Sunday might not break out of the 50s there. Which frat are you in? I'm a phi psi alum. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 Had a visitor. A party animal! Stay away from my garden! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Hopefully all the kids make it back alive this year. Claritin says "It's the most wonderful time of the year", all Christmas, winter, spring, summer and fall. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, NWbyNW said: Had a visitor. A party animal! Stay away from my garden! Easter bunny is confused 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Phil said: Super Niña coming? Never had a Super La Nina before, this might enhance the Southern Plains Cockroach Death Ridge. 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Phil said: Super Niña coming? The summer of 1975 was not all doom and gloom either. SEA hit 80 for the first time on May 9th. May, June and July of 1975 were all drier than normal at SEA. It was 89 degrees at SEA on the 4th of July... and July even finished slightly warmer than normal. There was a very wet period during the second half of August... but summer came back in September. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 36 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: The summer of 1975 was not all doom and gloom either. SEA hit 80 for the first time on May 9th. May, June and July of 1975 were all drier than normal at SEA. It was 89 degrees at SEA on the 4th of July... and July even finished slightly warmer than normal. There was a very wet period during the second half of August... but summer came back in September. June 1955 was remarkable here. Not a single 70+ low. Basically unheard of now. Of course July and August turned nasty, but at least there was variability. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 I've been pimping the 1955 analog for a while now... 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 Having taco soup for dinner on this cold damp winter night. 4 2 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 Just now, MossMan said: Having taco soup for dinner on this cold damp winter night. How dare you post that while I’m low carbing. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 Currently 81 and blue skies. Life is rough 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 54/47 today. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Blob Posted May 4, 2022 Author Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Phil said: How dare you post that while I’m low carbing. Just cook some meat with taco seasoning. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 62/46 day here. Morning clouds and afternoon sun. Another really nice day. 2 1 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 4 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Which frat are you in? I'm a phi psi alum. Not in a frat. Won’t have time for that stuff going into sophomore year and after as I will probably work part time as well. But have many many friends in frats. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfan2012 Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 5 hours ago, Phil said: Super Niña coming? I asked steve his opinion on what Larry has been saying Steves weather page he said he agrees with Larry Cosgrove I just phil can not understand what it is that there looking at but I will kindly have my crow if there proven right. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 00z GFS cuts the ridging short and drops another potent airmass down around D8. 2 3 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 GFS would deliver a shot of snow up here Sunday morning... 2 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 53/41 with 0.08” of rain today. Really nice evening, cleared out around 5pm. Currently down to 42. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: GFS would deliver a shot of snow up here Sunday morning... Saw that. How often does it snow in May for you? Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 13 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Saw that. How often does it snow in May for you? Not often. I saw snow fall during the cold trough around May 20,2013, didn’t stick though. People who have lived up here all their lives say it has definitely happened before, in terms of sticking in May. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 4, 2022 Report Share Posted May 4, 2022 No wind and the skies have cleared out a bit. 48 in Tacoma…feels chilly got into the upper 50s this afternoon with a couple sunbreaks in the evening. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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