May Winter Continue 2022 PNW

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS is disappointingly dry for a couple days later next week.     I am sure that will change.      Its not like Seattle and Portland average 200+ dry days per year.    Oh wait... they do.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Nov 55 hammered Spokane.  would take

That winter was a lot more than just November though... 

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

January 1956 wasn't terrible. Also one of the wettest we've seen. Got pretty cold with lowland snow at the end of the month.

That was a really wet active winter, storm train got going early too. 

New CanSIPS also gets the storm track started early, FWIW. Mid/late August verbatim. Not sure I believe that but anything is possible.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

New CanSIPS also gets the storm track started early, FWIW. Mid/late August verbatim. Not sure I believe that but anything is possible.

Very rare for that to happen this far south. Salem hasn't had an August with 2"+ of rain since 1983. 

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Very rare for that to happen this far south. Salem hasn't had an August with 2"+ of rain since 1983. 

An entire week of systems bringing lowland snow in April is pretty rare as well... but it just happened.

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

New CanSIPS also gets the storm track started early, FWIW. Mid/late August verbatim. Not sure I believe that but anything is possible.

2015 of all years did that. Big windstorm in late August, then the most recent genuinely chilly September followed.

An aberration from what would otherwise become a terrifically hot year, the hottest in Seattle’s history.

[BLI snowman]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS is disappointingly dry for a couple days later next week.     I am sure that will change.      Its not like Seattle and Portland average 200+ dry days per year.    Oh wait... they do.    

Frustration slowly taking hold. Acceptance stage still a few weeks away....

[BLI snowman]

16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That winter was a lot more than just November though... 

1/26/1956 totally NAILED the PDX metro, Andrew. 1/10/2017 style with some convective banding. Week plus of deep snowcover and arctic temps followed.

[TacomaWaWx]

53/44 today…rain let up for a bit…now it’s back and getting breezy. 0.40” on the day and 0.77” this month. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Frustration slowly taking hold. Acceptance stage still a few weeks away....

Not any more than anyone else.   I have already accepted that the weather will be crap until July.   Anything else is just a little bonus so I can only be pleasantly surprised.      

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Not any more than anyone else.   I have already accepted that the weather will be crap until July.   Anything else is just a little bonus so I can only be pleasantly surprised.      

Hmm, definitely due for a wet July. Looks like Cedar Lake's last 4 incher was way back in 1999.

For historic perspective, they also did it in 1997, 1993, 1986, 1983, 1974, 1972, 1963, 1955, 1948, 1939, 1932, and 1916. So now 6 years over the previous longest gap.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Hmm, definitely due for a wet July. Looks like Cedar Lake's last 4 incher was way back in 1999.

For historic perspective, they also did it in 1997, 1993, 1986, 1983, 1974, 1972, 1963, 1955, 1948, 1939, 1932, and 1916. So now 6 years over the previous longest gap.

I don't even care that much.   We will be in Minnesota for half of July this year.    I assume that will be when its absolutely gorgeous here though.    Side note... wet summer months can also come in just a few days so its not really a gauge of how nice or crappy it is.    If July is crappy then August and September will be nice.  

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not any more than anyone else.   I have already accepted that the weather will be crap until July.   Anything else is just a little bonus so I can only be pleasantly surprised.      

There will be sunnier, drier days during troughing this time of year. Not even that microclimate of yours can prevent that.

Genuine washout days like today are growing exceptionally rarer with time now. Hard to say the weather will be ‘crap’.

[FroYoBro]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't even care that much.   We will be in Minnesota for half of July this year.    I assume that will be when its absolutely gorgeous here though.    Side note... wet summer months can also come in just a few days so its not really a gauge of how nice or crappy it is.    If July is crappy then August and September will be nice.  

HE SAID HE DOESN’T EVEN CARE THAT MUCH

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

HE SAID HE DOESN’T EVEN CARE THAT MUCH

I prefer crappy weather here when we are out of town. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1/26/1956 totally NAILED the PDX metro, Andrew. 1/10/2017 style with some convective banding. Week plus of deep snowcover and arctic temps followed.

Just looked up PDX, pretty impressive. A little more widespread than 1/10/17 too it appears. The sub-freezing highs didn't start until the 31st in a lot of places so I'm guessing that was another push of arctic air? 

Silver Falls had single digit lows every month November-February and recorded snow depth January 24-March 15th. For comparison we have not had a single digit low since December 2013. 

[TT-SEA]

I

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

There will be sunnier, drier days during troughing this time of year. Not even that microclimate of yours can prevent that.

Genuine washout days like today are growing exceptionally rarer with time now. Hard to say the weather will be ‘crap’.

Exactly... assume it will be nasty and then be pleasantly surprised when it's not.   

[MossMan]

Sneak peek of November 2022! 

Edited May 6, 2022 by MossMan

[BLI snowman]

38 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just looked up PDX, pretty impressive. A little more widespread than 1/10/17 too it appears. The sub-freezing highs didn't start until the 31st in a lot of places so I'm guessing that was another push of arctic air? 

Silver Falls had single digit lows every month November-February and recorded snow depth January 24-March 15th. For comparison we have not had a single digit low since December 2013. 

Yeah, the big snowstorm on the 26th was from a little shortwave that got out ahead of the main push of cold, which was decidedly back door in nature a few days later. Somewhat similar to the evolution in late January 1996.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The last decade has delivered pretty much nothing worthwhile in November. Historically it's not a great month for us as our winters tend to be pretty back loaded, but historically there have been some pretty legit November events here. Seems like the 70s had a lot of pretty decent November events, so maybe it's kind of a cyclical thing too. 

[Skagit Weather]

59 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Hmm, definitely due for a wet July. Looks like Cedar Lake's last 4 incher was way back in 1999.

For historic perspective, they also did it in 1997, 1993, 1986, 1983, 1974, 1972, 1963, 1955, 1948, 1939, 1932, and 1916. So now 6 years over the previous longest gap.

I'm trying to think if an unpleasant July (as compared to most other places) is even possible here. Sure, for the people who don't like heat maybe 2009 was bad with a SEA average high of 87F, but many other places in the US that wouldn't be too bad and I personally loved it. Yeah, and it know people down south didn't like last year, but it was gorgeous around the Sound with only very slightly above average temps.

Maybe 1993 could be the candidate for an objectively unpleasant July. July 1993 at SEA had 13 days of precipitation (a record) even if it only added up to 1.27" (12th wettest July) and an average high of 68.7F (coldest only behind the 68.6F of 1955, average is 77.4F). There were only 11 days that made it above 70F (fewest on record, average is 24) and the high for the month was 78F.

I assume many people across the country would trade their hell-hole July's for those stats, but if that was the only taste of summer we got here it might be pretty disappointing. Fortunately August 1993 was beautiful and only slightly below average with only 5 days of measurable precipitation.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, the big snowstorm on the 26th was from a little shortwave that got out ahead of the main push of cold, which was decidedly back door in nature a few days later. Somewhat similar to the evolution in late January 1996.

Amazing to think about that and then what happened the following January. 

[MossMan]

This event still tops my all time November winter events! 1985 a close second. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That town is a total dump. 

Pun intended?

[Deweydog]

Breezy!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

59F and rainy. 0.67" today and 1.05" for the month so far.

[NWbyNW]

10 hours ago, Phil said:

EPS actually made a troughier shift D11-15.

I don't mean to be nosey or rude.  I don't have a long history here so I don't know everyone's backstories, but I have to ask @Phil; why are you so interesting in Pacific Northwest weather when your profile says you live in Maryland?  Is there just more people to talk to in this part of the forum?  Did you used to live here? I am legitimately curious.   Thanks for answering if you choose to do so. 

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

I don't mean to be nosey or rude.  I don't have a long history here so I don't know everyone's backstories, but I have to ask @Phil; why are you so interesting in Pacific Northwest weather when your profile says you live in Maryland?  Is there just more people to talk to in this part of the forum?  Did you used to live here? I am legitimately curious.   Thanks for answering if you choose to do so. 

I post in all the subforums. I’ve known the people in this one for longer, though, so I’m sure I post in here more frequently.

Roughly half of my extended family also lives in the Seattle area and I’m very close with them, so that’s another reason I follow the weather up there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

35 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Pun intended?

Yes, lol. But it’s also a pretty rundown town. 

[Phil]

1964 listed thrice.

[BLI snowman]

46 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Amazing to think about that and then what happened the following January. 

The whole 1953-57 stretch was incredible for cold anomalies outside of a few short stretches . Starting with the often-overlooked frigid summer of 1953 and ending with the very chilly summer of 1957.  And bookended by two legitimately craptastic winters in 1952-53 and 1957-58.

And I actually forgot that 2021 set the record for 80+ days at PDX with a ridiculous total of 90. For comparison, here were their annual totals from 1953-57:

1953: 30

1954: 10

1955: 27

1956: 38

1957: 31

And the last 9 years by comparison:

2021: 90

2020: 63

2019: 64

2018: 73

2017: 79

2016: 71

2015: 88

2014: 77

2013: 67

I happen to think the 80+ statistic probably captures the extension of our warm seasons better than any other. It's crazy to think that there is now an 80 day range between the two extremes for PDX. It's like two different climates.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Happy Cinco de Mayo. Even if it feels more like Uno de Enero. 

[MossMan]

1.08” on the day, 1.97” for the month. Still raining. 

[GHweatherChris]

So much passive aggressive complaining on here pretending like "it is what it is, I have accepted it, it can't last forever" but only after saying 'more days have had rain than not" over and over and over again, we get it, no need to repeat it over and over and over again, "some" are annoyed by the current regime, get over it ffs.

[TacomaWaWx]

0.42” today. 

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

So much passive aggressive complaining on here pretending like "it is what it is, I have accepted it, it can't last forever" but only after saying 'more days have had rain than not" over and over and over again, we get it, no need to repeat it over and over and over again, "some" are annoyed by the current regime, get over it ffs.

Chris is back!   He is only happy if he can pick on me or Phil... we literally live inside his head forever.    

And yes Chris... I always track weather and always post regardless of what I like or dislike about the current weather.   And it is what it is.    It doesn't bother me nearly as much as it did 10-15 years ago.    Maybe getting older and having freedom to travel and now having parents on both sides of our family who are dying changes one's perspective on life.    But I will talk about what is happening... because the weather is always happening and we are here to talk weather. 

You seem to have only one interest on here and that is personal conflict.   You express shear boredom when moderators tamp down debates or keep people in line.    That is what drives you... so enjoy!    

[GHweatherChris]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Chris is back!   He is only happy if he can pick on me or Phil... we literally live inside his head forever.    

And yes Chris... I always track weather and always post regardless of what I like or dislike about the current weather.   And it is what it is.    It doesn't bother me nearly as much as it did 10-15 years ago.    Maybe getting older and having freedom to travel and now having parents on both sides of our family who are dying changes one's perspective on life.    But I will talk about what is happening... because the weather its always happening and we are to talk weather. 

You seem to have only one interest on here and that is personal conflict.   You express shear boredom when moderators tamp down debates.    That is what drives you... so enjoy!    

Ummm, ok.  It isn't just narrowed down to just you and Phil fyi overall, but to be honest, you have been driving the narrative lately about how wet it has been and trying really hard to make it seem like it is no big deal to you but if others are really being honest with themselves, they see what I see, unfortunately there is noone that will tamper anything now, although someone should. So keep pretending you are really not bothered, yet you really are.  I really want to enjoy this forum year round, but reasons on this forum make it impossible.

Peace.

Edited May 6, 2022 by GHweatherChris

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, GHweatherChris said:

Ummm, ok.  It isn't just narrowed down to just you and Phil fyi overall, but to be honest, you have been driving the narrative lately about how wet it has been and trying really hard to make it seem like it is no big deal to you but if others are really being honest with themselves, they see what I see, unfortunately there is noone that will tamper anything now. So keep pretending you are really not bothered, yet you really are.  I really want to enjoy this forum year round, but reasons on this forum make it impossible.

Peace.

So you would enjoy this forum more if I faked some rantings against nature and anyone who likes rain?       

So pointless.   No one on here is causing anything to happen and people like what they like.  It is definitely fun and interesting to point out some of the statistical anomalies... but it actually has not been that wet up here.   Its been unusually persistent in true Nina fashion... but not that wet overall.    The more impressive stats are to the south where it was really needed.

[TacomaWaWx]

6 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Ummm, ok.  It isn't just narrowed down to just you and Phil fyi overall, but to be honest, you have been driving the narrative lately about how wet it has been and trying really hard to make it seem like it is no big deal to you but if others are really being honest with themselves, they see what I see, unfortunately there is noone that will tamper anything now, although someone should. So keep pretending you are really not bothered, yet you really are.  I really want to enjoy this forum year round, but reasons on this forum make it impossible.

Peace.

Hope to see you back in November hopefully man take it easy. 

[TT-SEA]

Only .29 at SEA today.

A very inefficient way to pick up a little more than a quarter of an inch of precip with rain the entire day.    Phil can pick up .29 in under a minute and have sunshine the rest of the day.