May Winter Continue 2022 PNW

[Chewbacca Defense]

9 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Actually Stampede.    Just west of Costco.

Oh the humanity....

 

We always talk about having a forum get together, I'm thinking it needs to happen at Stampede Pass while Phil is out here for one of his fishing trips. 

[Phishy Wx]

9 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS is not making the same mistake again... it narrowly avoids the hand off up near Alaska next week and instead goes with a strong ridge up there which results in another cold trough diving right into the PNW.     The 00Z ICON is doing what the GFS was originally doing for this weekend and beyond and completing the hand off up north which in turn builds a ridge over the PNW.      The GFS is not always totally goofy... although I really wish some of its goofy solutions would work out.  

 

 

Early Tropical Wx off the Carolinas?

[Dave]

Holy shitt. It stopped raining. and why have the fonts exploded into a thousand megatons. I had to use my phone just read the forum.

[BLI snowman]

34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Using the ONI values... 1975 is one of the rare examples in which a Nina was strengthening during the mid to late spring and into summer.   Ninas almost always develop/strengthen during the late summer and fall.    

Years like 1950, 1956, 1971, 1976, 1985, 1989, 1996, 1999, 2001, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2018, and 2021 had Nina springs like this year but the ENSO regions were slowly warming through the spring.  

What is happening this year is very unusual using the last 70 years as a guide.     Maybe it happened more frequently before 1950... not sure.    Phil might have some insight on that.   

1955 as well. 1999 also held on pretty strong in spring.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

1955 as well. 1999 also held on pretty strong in spring.

1999 was definitely going downward though... from -1.5 to -1.0 during the spring into early summer.   

1955 was basically flat from January through early fall.  

[AlTahoe]

3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Euro Seasonal going for a CFS-style country wide blowtorch JJA, really nailing the west. If you were going by recent climo, this would very likely be how it plays out.

thats a 1988 repeat! oh wait we had a 1988 repeat last summer. expect the opposite 

[MossMan]

.07” so far on the day, 2.08” for the month. 
ITS NOT RAINING AT THE MOMENT! 

[AlTahoe]

42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Using the ONI values... 1975 is one of the rare examples in which a Nina was strengthening during the mid to late spring and into summer.   Ninas almost always develop/strengthen during the late summer and fall.    

Years like 1950, 1956, 1971, 1976, 1985, 1989, 1996, 1999, 2001, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2018, and 2021 had Nina springs like this year but the ENSO regions were slowly warming through the spring.  

What is happening this year is very unusual using the last 70 years as a guide.     Maybe it happened more frequently before 1950... not sure.    Phil might have some insight on that.   

1975 was the start of the great Pacific climate shift. Also the start of the two driest back to back years in California. Hopefully this one turns out differently 

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Looking at the radar, it sure seems like today is going to bust to the north. Models had us pegged with steady rain at this time. Good for Washingtonians, bad for Oregonians.

Not so!  You’ll get your rain, whether you like it or not lol

[Jbolin]

11 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

We adopted him.   And he is our long term global indices expert so he is quite valuable to the discussion.  

I wonder if Phil would be willing to air b&b his stampede pass home during winter? 

[Meatyorologist]

@Joshua Lake OswegoGFS says things get fun real quick. Environment follows the wet adiabat all the way up to 400mb and ceiling's around 300mb. Small increases in temp/DP produce large changes in CAPE. A substantial period of clearing could mean a good risk for thunderstorms, and some ornery ones at that.

Me thinks @Tyler Mode may get nailed. That whole area is a magnet for outstanding convection.

[TacomaWaWx]

Rain has begun again. 

[Meatyorologist]

It seems the NAM's entire basis for its gaudy CAPE values is entirely contingent on a random 3-5°F increase in DP's in the central sound around 4pm. Also some stellar sun heating. Not sure how this one works out, buddy. 

[Jbolin]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It seems the NAM's entire basis for its gaudy CAPE values is entirely contingent on a random 3-5°F increase in DP's in the central sound around 4pm. Also some stellar sun heating. Not sure how this one works out, buddy. 

It doesn't 

[Jbolin]

16 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It seems the NAM's entire basis for its gaudy CAPE values is entirely contingent on a random 3-5°F increase in DP's in the central sound around 4pm. Also some stellar sun heating. Not sure how this one works out, buddy. 

(In the voice of John Madden)

Now, what you gotta do, is get the ball to RB, then get the LG to open up a hole near the left tackle, then you gotta increase the LFC to within the LCL, once that happens, you've got a great shot down the sideline, stopping of course at the 32 yard line for some nachos and a beer. 

Then you're going to circle back behind the opponents sideline, give the finger to Mike Ditka, then pull a Forrest Gump and run laterally back towards your sideline, give a 19 sec interview to ABC's Wide World of Sports, continue the rush past Lawrence Taylor and BOOM, "Tough Actin' Tinactin".

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 hours ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Looking at the radar, it sure seems like today is going to bust to the north. Models had us pegged with steady rain at this time. Good for Washingtonians, bad for Oregonians.

Lol

[Timmy Supercell]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Hey @hawkstwelve... you are heading into a pattern that is warm and humid with lots of thunderstorm chances.   You are going to love it... unlike anything you have probably ever experienced in May.    

T'storm season has officially kicked my door down. Hitting double digit days for the year very soon.

Though western KY is a lot different, counting Dec/Jan storms, they're probably well over 20 days by Paducah's region. Or even Louisville. Some of the earlier events died down by the time the storms hit northeastern Kentucky. The 2 times my county has been in a Tornado Watch both flopped, whereas I think every Watch so far in western KY has been verifying. 

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Using the ONI values... 1975 is one of the rare examples in which a Nina was strengthening during the mid to late spring and into summer.   Ninas almost always develop/strengthen during the late summer and fall.    

Years like 1950, 1956, 1971, 1976, 1985, 1989, 1996, 1999, 2001, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2018, and 2021 had Nina springs like this year but the ENSO regions were slowly warming through the spring.  

What is happening this year is very unusual using the last 70 years as a guide.     Maybe it happened more frequently before 1950... not sure.    Phil might have some insight on that.   

Going by this page (https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php) 2010 started with solid Nino in January-Feb, then cooled into a Nina signature in late Spring. I don't see many years doing that either. 

[Timmy Supercell]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

I already saw more lightning with a storm back at the end of March than I did in years in the PNW. And that was outside of the main 'thunderstorm season' here.

Definitely looking forward to the warmth and at least partially the humidity, if only because it helps foster an environment for better severe storm development. Next week definitely has some potential in that regard.

I'm flying back to Seattle the following week for a business trip so hopefully any more thunderstorm development holds off through that week. Knowing my luck we will get a couple rumbles next week and then a storm with crazy lightning, baseball hail, and wicked straight line winds while I'm gone. Good thing I've trained my family to provide min-by-min updates and videos anytime interesting weather starts happening! 

Haven't had real frequent lightning so far; but I definitely now live in an area with more lightning density. 

[LowerGarfield]

I had 0.22 overnight so I had .5 over the last day which is nice for my semi-arid location. Chance tstorms later.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wasn't raining when I got up this morning, but we had already had 0.47" since midnight, so on track for another wet day. 1.44" yesterday. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Raw morning again…46. Rain let up for a bit but now it’s coming down again. 0.15” this morning should be over 1” this month by noon. 

[FroYoBro]

Just walked through a pretty impressive downpour. The plants are so green and happy. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well, the 12z GFS is pretty much wet through the end of the run. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Partly sunny and been dry all morning in Salem. JOSHUA WAS RIGHT.

[BLI snowman]

Should be some decent t-boomer action this afternoon. Mid 50s dewpoints creeping into the area now. Very moist and istability should get going very quickly with any sunbreaks. Some decent shear aloft too, so can't rule out a funnel.

[Phil]

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Using the ONI values... 1975 is one of the rare examples in which a Nina was strengthening during the mid to late spring and into summer.   Ninas almost always develop/strengthen during the late summer and fall.    

Years like 1950, 1956, 1971, 1976, 1985, 1989, 1996, 1999, 2001, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2018, and 2021 had Nina springs like this year but the ENSO regions were slowly warming through the spring.  

What is happening this year is very unusual using the last 70 years as a guide.     Maybe it happened more frequently before 1950... not sure.    Phil might have some insight on that.   

1988 was another anomaly. 1st year event, so not technically the same thing, but it was already heading into moderate territory by summer. The 1987/88 Niño collapsed unusually early such that the transition to La Niña was already well underway.

And of course there’s 1955.

[The Ms. Anthrop]

17 hours ago, MossMan said:

This event still tops my all time November winter events! 1985 a close second. 

 

Oh man, seeing that date stamp + snow has brought back some serious feels... I was in the middle of my first deployment to Iraq during that storm. Things were freaking brutal. We had been getting mortared for the most of the month and I was running on little to no sleep. That night I ended up under a desk with my laptop for company because it was just non stop. As I'm sitting there, stewing with anger/fear and waiting nothing more than some dang sleep, my mom sends this lovely chatty email with pictures of the family over thanksgiving and then of the storm. You know the kind of pictures I'm talking about, the whole family at the dinner table, my beloved dog frolicking in the snow, the neighborhood looking all perfect and peaceful under a cover of white... I have never been so homesick in my life. Poor mom, I lost it bad and sent a pretty mean email back ("why are your torturing me with all these pictures!?!?! whinnnnnnnne!"). Anyhoo, I finally got some r&r a couple of weeks later, had sleep, and called to apologize. She promptly send me more pictures of the snow.

I say all that to say, I would be thrilled for 2006 repeat as I missed it on the first go around. LOL although I just bought plane tickets to Munich for a week and half in November, so my luck it will snow while I am gone again.  

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

1988 was another anomaly. 1st year event, so not technically the same thing, but it was already heading into moderate territory by summer. The 1987/88 Niño collapsed unusually early such that the transition to La Niña was already well underway.

And of course there’s 1955.

Yeah... as I mentioned earlier it looks like 1955 was basically flat for most of the year until the Nina strengthened in the fall.

[FroYoBro]

15 minutes ago, The Ms. Anthrop said:

 

Oh man, seeing that date stamp + snow has brought back some serious feels... I was in the middle of my first deployment to Iraq during that storm. Things were freaking brutal. We had been getting mortared for the most of the month and I was running on little to no sleep. That night I ended up under a desk with my laptop for company because it was just non stop. As I'm sitting there, stewing with anger/fear and waiting nothing more than some dang sleep, my mom sends this lovely chatty email with pictures of the family over thanksgiving and then of the storm. You know the kind of pictures I'm talking about, the whole family at the dinner table, my beloved dog frolicking in the snow, the neighborhood looking all perfect and peaceful under a cover of white... I have never been so homesick in my life. Poor mom, I lost it bad and sent a pretty mean email back ("why are your torturing me with all these pictures!?!?! whinnnnnnnne!"). Anyhoo, I finally got some r&r a couple of weeks later, had sleep, and called to apologize. She promptly send me more pictures of the snow.

I say all that to say, I would be thrilled for 2006 repeat as I missed it on the first go around. LOL although I just bought plane tickets to Munich for a week and half in November, so my luck it will snow while I am gone again.  

Crazy story. No one should have to go through that. Glad you made it out! 

[TT-SEA]

27 minutes ago, The Ms. Anthrop said:

 

Oh man, seeing that date stamp + snow has brought back some serious feels... I was in the middle of my first deployment to Iraq during that storm. Things were freaking brutal. We had been getting mortared for the most of the month and I was running on little to no sleep. That night I ended up under a desk with my laptop for company because it was just non stop. As I'm sitting there, stewing with anger/fear and waiting nothing more than some dang sleep, my mom sends this lovely chatty email with pictures of the family over thanksgiving and then of the storm. You know the kind of pictures I'm talking about, the whole family at the dinner table, my beloved dog frolicking in the snow, the neighborhood looking all perfect and peaceful under a cover of white... I have never been so homesick in my life. Poor mom, I lost it bad and sent a pretty mean email back ("why are your torturing me with all these pictures!?!?! whinnnnnnnne!"). Anyhoo, I finally got some r&r a couple of weeks later, had sleep, and called to apologize. She promptly send me more pictures of the snow.

I say all that to say, I would be thrilled for 2006 repeat as I missed it on the first go around. LOL although I just bought plane tickets to Munich for a week and half in November, so my luck it will snow while I am gone again.  

Big time thank you for your service!

 

[Meatyorologist]

37 minutes ago, The Ms. Anthrop said:

 

Oh man, seeing that date stamp + snow has brought back some serious feels... I was in the middle of my first deployment to Iraq during that storm. Things were freaking brutal. We had been getting mortared for the most of the month and I was running on little to no sleep. That night I ended up under a desk with my laptop for company because it was just non stop. As I'm sitting there, stewing with anger/fear and waiting nothing more than some dang sleep, my mom sends this lovely chatty email with pictures of the family over thanksgiving and then of the storm. You know the kind of pictures I'm talking about, the whole family at the dinner table, my beloved dog frolicking in the snow, the neighborhood looking all perfect and peaceful under a cover of white... I have never been so homesick in my life. Poor mom, I lost it bad and sent a pretty mean email back ("why are your torturing me with all these pictures!?!?! whinnnnnnnne!"). Anyhoo, I finally got some r&r a couple of weeks later, had sleep, and called to apologize. She promptly send me more pictures of the snow.

I say all that to say, I would be thrilled for 2006 repeat as I missed it on the first go around. LOL although I just bought plane tickets to Munich for a week and half in November, so my luck it will snow while I am gone again.  

Sorry you had to go through that. You above all else here deserve a good November snap!

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Sorry you had to go through that. You above all else here deserve a good November snap!

But we need to time it right! 

[Deweydog]

Snovember all of the sudden has a lot of pressure on it. 11/1 00z in 4,254 hours 18 minutes…

[T-Town]

5 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Man that's crazy, its like you are channeling John Madden from the other side

Not really weather related but some good John Madden here. 

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Not really weather related but some good John Madden here. 

1985

[TacomaWaWx]

Wet. 0.33” and at our high of 47 today.  Rains starting to turn more showery. 

[T-Town]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

1985

Oh. Right. And November is football season. 

[Phishy Wx]

15 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS is not making the same mistake again... it narrowly avoids the hand off up near Alaska next week and instead goes with a strong ridge up there which results in another cold trough diving right into the PNW.     The 00Z ICON is doing what the GFS was originally doing for this weekend and beyond and completing the hand off up north which in turn builds a ridge over the PNW.      The GFS is not always totally goofy... although I really wish some of its goofy solutions would work out.  

 

 

 

Early Tropical Wx off the Carolinas?

[Phishy Wx]

Showery and 53

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Raining now in Salem. Will this ever end?!