May Winter Continue 2022 PNW

[Phishy Wx]

 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, T-Town said:

Right. Because we all know that beer does not taste great. 

FYP

[Phishy Wx]

Just had another Hail storm, some marble sized

[Phil]

Nice improvement in the 12z EPS for week-2. 

[TT-SEA]

Partly sunny here now... all the c-zone activity is now focused to the north.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Nice improvement in the 12z EPS for week-2. 

I prefer the control run!

Could be a situation where the mean trough position retrogrades just offshore which would definitely be warmer and less stormy and more spring-like.    

[Meatyorologist]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I prefer the control run!

Could be a situation where the mean trough position retrogrades just offshore which would definitely be warmer and less stormy and more spring-like.    

That would open the door to some more substantial convection. I could deal.

[Chewbacca Defense]

2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

It’s been like watching 2 brick walls arguing with eachother for weeks now. 

Yea but it seemed to really escalate the past 24 hours or so...LOL!

[TT-SEA]

Heading up to Bellingham now... going from sunny conditions here to sunny conditions there but with some major c-zone action in between around Everett.    

[TacomaWaWx]

53 here. Really breezy but a nice day. Might be another week before we crack 60 degrees again. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

42 and cloudy. 

[Omegaraptor]

Thought I’d come back to post this. 11” of new snow at Timberline so far and it’s going hard. Deep snow warnings on the website. Have no reason to believe it’s not powder. Spring passholders getting some real value!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

40 with a hail shower. 0.92” on the day, 5.07” on the month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 38 now, low for the day so far. Best dynamics with the trough going a little south of here, so we may be just to far north for snow. Central Oregon Coast  Range and Lane County foothills under a winter weather advisory above 1500’.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Down to 38 now, low for the day so far. Best dynamics with the trough going a little south of here, so we may be just to far north for snow. Central Oregon Coast  Range and Lane County foothills under a winter weather advisory above 1500’.

That is coooooold!  

[FroYoBro]

Breezy. 

[TT-SEA]

Quite lovely at my parents house in Bellingham.   Sunny and 56 with just a light breeze.   

[NWbyNW]

Since I woke up to the moment I typed this, it has rained non-stop all day.  Heavy rain and normal rain.  Even hail!  It has been raining almost non-stop since Friday and it's wonderful!  Here are some heavy rain and hail vids. Second one has hail pounding the sunlight window. 

Absolutely pouring!  I can't believe that this amount of rain is coming down!  It feels and looks like late fall or winter!  45F!! also had two instances of rolling thunder!  It was very loud and rumbled a long time.  

 

 

[NWbyNW]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Quite lovely at my parents house in Bellingham.   Sunny and 56 with just a light breeze.   

It looks quite nice on the Bham Webcam! 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Moving forward temps look to remain cool, but I think we are done with the constant deluges. 

[TT-SEA]

20 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Since I woke up to the moment I typed this, it has rained non-stop all day.  Heavy rain and normal rain.  Even hail!  It has been raining almost non-stop since Friday and it's wonderful!  Here are some tiny heavy rain and a vid of hail pounding the sunlight window. 

Absolutely pouring!  I can't believe that this amount of rain is coming down!  It feels and looks like late fall or winter!  45F!! also had two instances of rolling thunder!  It was very loud and rumbled a long time.  

 

 

 

We drove through it... and was going to mention that I hope you were getting rain since it never rains there!   It went from 58 and sunny in Bellevue to 46 in Bothell and 42 in downtown Everett with torrential rain.   The sun came out again right when we passed Randy's "office".   

[TacomaWaWx]

54/46 0.46” of rain. Pretty decent to get a sub 55 high even with some sunshine this afternoon. 4th sub 50 high this month. 

[MossMan]

It was lovely earlier today when the sun came out for 15min! Had a high of 50!! 
Currently 47 and cloudy!! 

[Phil]

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I prefer the control run!

Could be a situation where the mean trough position retrogrades just offshore which would definitely be warmer and less stormy and more spring-like.    

Thankfully the control run is an outlier. Maybe we’ll finally get a summer without western death ridges.  

[TT-SEA]

47 minutes ago, Phil said:

Thankfully the control run is an outlier. Maybe we’ll finally get a summer without western death ridges.  

That run looked to me like a normal 3 or 4 day break in the rain.   You realize that happens even in Nina years?  Even in the foothills?   Even in 1955?    Not every 3 day break in the rain in WA will be a death ridge.   It's going to happen many times Phil.  How does that even happen if every time there is no cold troughing it's considered a "death ridge".   

That is a serious question by the way.  

 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

54/46 0.46” of rain. Pretty decent to get a sub 55 high even with some sunshine this afternoon. 4th sub 50 high this month. 

Pretty wild. Has to be one of the coldest first weeks of May in awhile.

Pretty chilly year to date so far for much of the country.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Pretty wild. Has to be one of the coldest first weeks of May in awhile.

Pretty chilly year to date so far for much of the country.

 

I meant to type sub 55 by the way not sub 50 lol. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I meant to type sub 55 by the way not sub 50 lol. 

Still cold for sure.   

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Still cold for sure.   

Don’t think we will manage a sub 50 high this month…haven’t pulled one off since 2017. 

[Phil]

20 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Pretty wild. Has to be one of the coldest first weeks of May in awhile.

Pretty chilly year to date so far for much of the country.

 

I’m in the yellow.

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Still cold for sure.   

We almost had a sub-50 high today. Failed at the very end. 

[Phil]

34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That run looked to me like a normal 3 or 4 day break in the rain.   You realize that happens even in Nina years?  Even in the foothills?   Even in 1955?    Not every 3 day break in the rain in WA will be a death ridge.   It's going to happen many times Phil.  How does that even happen if every time there is no cold troughing it's considered a "death ridge".   

That is a serious question by the way.  

 

Obviously it can’t (and won’t) be troughy 24/7. But it doesn’t look like ridges will persist very long in this system state.

Progressive ridges in between troughs should become more common as wavelengths shorten heading into summer.

I don’t think we’ll many “blocking” ridges that stay in one place for days or weeks on end. At least not until later in the summer.

[Phil]

There was a report of pea sized hail in North Bend today.

[Anti Marine Layer]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

Obviously it can’t (and won’t) be troughy 24/7. But it doesn’t look like ridges will persist very long in this system state.

Progressive ridges in between troughs should become more common as wavelengths shorten heading into summer.

I don’t think we’ll many “blocking” ridges that stay in one place for days or weeks on end. At least not until later in the summer.

So it will be very wavy. However we have had some years with strong troughing well into June (2003 and 2009) and the summers ended up pretty hot, at least in California. 

[TT-SEA]

51 minutes ago, Phil said:

There was a report of pea sized hail in North Bend today.

So like most days this spring?

 

[Phil]

30 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

So like most days this spring?

 

Most days? D**n you get some sick weather up there. Haven’t seen hail here since June 2020.

[The Swamp]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Obviously it can’t (and won’t) be troughy 24/7. But it doesn’t look like ridges will persist very long in this system state.

Progressive ridges in between troughs should become more common as wavelengths shorten heading into summer.

I don’t think we’ll many “blocking” ridges that stay in one place for days or weeks on end. At least not until later in the summer.

Are you going to finish college some day and get a job as a meteorologist? 

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, The Swamp said:

Are you going to finish college some day and get a job as a meteorologist? 

If all goes to plan, by next spring/summer.  

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Most days? D**n you get some sick weather up there. Haven’t seen hail here since June 2020.

Pea sized hail?   Happens quite frequently in the spring.    Happened on probably 15 days in April alone.   I don't even pay attention to it.  Never does damage or bother anything.   It's always pea sized and happens when it's cold.  Can't ever remember any hail when it was warm and humid even when we get a rare thunderstorm in the summer.    That is always when I saw hail growing up in MN... on warm summer days.

[Omegaraptor]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Most days? D**n you get some sick weather up there. Haven’t seen hail here since June 2020.

Hail is pretty common in spring but it’s usually very very small hailstones. Last year I think it happened like 9 times in March in western Portland metro where I was. Anything bigger than pea size is very rare though.