May Winter Continue 2022 PNW

[Deweydog]

If we had a deck it would be wet right now.

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pea sized hail?   Happens quite frequently in the spring.    Happened on probably 15 days in April alone.   I don't even pay attention to it.  Never does damage or bother anything.   It's always pea sized and happens when it's cold.  Can't ever remember any hail when it was warm, humid even when we get a rare thunderstorm in the summer.    That is always when I saw hail growing up in MN... on warm summer days.

Yeah that type of weather is completely foreign to me. Hail in general is rare here. Giant sleet pellets on the other hand..that’s a typical winter thing but it’s usually during a transition away from snow, so…meh.

Largest hail I’ve ever experienced was lacrosse ball size in June 2010.  Then didn’t see any hail again until July 2014. Then waited until June 2020 to see it again.

I remember it used to happen a lot more often back in the late 1990s/early 2000s. But it’s a fickle beast..can show up in a garden variety thunderstorm but has been absent in all of the the most severe storms we’ve had.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah that type of weather is foreign to me. Hail in general is rare here. Giant sleet pellets on the other hand..that’s a typical winter thing but it’s usually during a transition away from snow, so…meh.

Largest hail I’ve ever experienced was lacrosse ball size in June 2010.  Then didn’t see any hail again until July 2014. Then waited until June 2020.

I remember it used to happen a lot more often back in the late 1990s/early 2000s. But it’s a fickle beast..can show up in a garden variety thunderstorm but has been absent in all of the the most severe storms we’ve had.

Would the next level be pickle ball size?

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Pretty wild. Has to be one of the coldest first weeks of May in awhile.

Pretty chilly year to date so far for much of the country.

 

California has been nice.

[Kayla]

Under a Winter Weather Advisory here. Expecting 6-12" of snowfall from tomorrow morning through Monday morning. Trees/shrubs are still completely dormant so thankfully we shouldn't have any sort of damage. Our grass is officially awake and green again though!

Lows look to drop into the teens on Tuesday morning. Records are in the low 20's next week so definitely possible that some record lows could fall. 

Snowfall bullseye looks to be centered right over Gallatin County.

 

[MossMan]

Major dumpage and 39 degrees. Merry Christmas! 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

Major dumpage and 39 degrees. Merry Christmas! 

The wide c-zone around Everett has been crazy persistent.    Its still dumping in the same places we drove through about 10 hours ago.

[smerfylicious]

Been through several rounds of hail today. Started around 9 am, had another a few hours later, then had another around 4. Very active day, and I don't think we reached 45.

[Phil]

Good chance tomorrow is my last day in the 50s until Nov.  

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Been through several rounds of hail today. Started around 9 am, had another a few hours later, then had another around 4. Very active day, and I don't think we reached 45.

How common are sub-45 highs there in May?

Thats our average high in January.  

[smerfylicious]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

How common are sub-45 highs there in May?

Thats our average high in January.  

Not sure. Didn't have one last year, that's for sure. 

We also didn't have any snow left on the low mountains in May in my area, and there's still plenty on Mt. Stickney.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

How common are sub-45 highs there in May?

Thats our average high in January.  

So far I think our May has been colder than what our January was. 

[NWbyNW]

Tornado in Spokane Valley?  Surprised no one has been talking about this event here. 

 

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Major dumpage and 39 degrees. Merry Christmas! 

A picture is worth 1000 words.

I'm dreaming of a white Mother's Day.

[Phil]

The CMC ensemble continues to look awesome in the longer range. Only mention it because it was the first to pick up on the current pattern, before the EPS (and WELL before the GEFS).

Hopefully it’s right again.  

[Phil]

I just found some very interesting predictive  behaviors when cross checking analogs. Will divulge once I make sense of it.

[MossMan]

Down to 37. 

[Phil]

I’ve taken a hipnotic sleep drug so I’m 100% how coherent I am right now, but if what I’ve found is true, then 2011 and 2008 might not be ideal summer analogs after all. The low frequency Hadley/Walker intensity ratio/z-fields over the North Pacific are much closer to that of 1955, 1974, 1975, 1980, 1988 and 1999 than any of the 21st century years.

[Phil]

Ignore the noise, the NPAC ridge structure is what I’m trying to match here.

Analogs for April/May vs 4/1 - 5/5 in 2022 so far:

[Meatyorologist]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’ve taken a hipnotic sleep drug so I’m 100% how coherent I am right now, but if what I’ve found is true, then 2011 and 2008 might not be ideal summer analogs after all. The low frequency circulation/z-fields over the North Pacific are much closer to that of 1955, 1974, 1975, 1980, 1988 and 1999 than any of the 21st century years.

1955 Summer repeat is one hell of a big Phil claim. 2nd coldest summer on record at KSEA.

I'd beg for one!

[Phil]

Found the perfect climate for Mossman and Tim.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-95.34787265365895&lat=29.747148920396555#.Ynd3AaQpC_Y

[Meatyorologist]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Found the perfect climate for Mossman and Tim.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-95.34787265365895&lat=29.747148920396555#.Ynd3AaQpC_Y

2/15/1895 was the deciding factor for Mossman

[Meatyorologist]

Me thinks cold troughing until the 13th, then a week of dirty ridging, then back to more troughing around the 20th.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

42F and partly cloudy out there. Nice night.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Washington is exempt 

[TacomaWaWx]

Low of 40 this morning and some sunshine. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like we may get a break from the troughing in the second half of the month. Euro shows us getting close to an inch of rain before then though. Will be interesting to see if we flip back into a troughy pattern later this month into June. 

[Blizzard777]

Federal Way 40* and 2.12 precipitation for the month.

Twin Falls Idaho light wet snow currently and 37*

Cold walk earlier…..yikes

[Blizzard777]

Snow coming down good now  

[Anti Marine Layer]

4 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Snow coming down good now  

Federal Way or Twin Falls?

[Blizzard777]

12 minutes ago, Jginmartini said:

Snow coming down good now  

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Jet stream is a'flowin. Find the shark.

[T-Town]

Nice morning. My phone says it will be raining for our Mother’s Day gathering.  Would be nice if the sun held on instead. 

[TacomaWaWx]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

Nice morning. My phone says it will be raining for our Mother’s Day gathering.  Would be nice if the sun held on instead. 

Shoulda done it early this morning lol. I get the feeling this afternoon might not be all that wet but we will see. 

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Nice morning. My phone says it will be raining for our Mother’s Day gathering.  Would be nice if the sun held on instead. 

I have been noticing the ECMWF showing some kind of c-zone down there this afternoon.

HRRR shows some activity down there as well... but not until around 4 or 5.

[Kayla]

Don't think I've ever seen this good of a chance and ingredients for thundersnow for this area. Going to be an exciting afternoon/evening!

 

[TT-SEA]

7 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

2/15/1895 was the deciding factor for Mossman

I was trying to fall back asleep last night and read a long article about that storm after seeing your post... from a meteorological standpoint and how people reacted in Houston.

Appears that people were absolutely obsessed with throwing snowballs!   At each other... at police officers... at judges leaving court.   Everywhere. 

https://spacecityweather-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/spacecityweather.com/houston-snow-1895-galveston/amp/?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%3D%3D#aoh=16520228634659&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From %1%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fspacecityweather.com%2Fhouston-snow-1895-galveston%2F

[Cloud]

A month’s worth of rain in a week. And more is probably on the way. 
 

 

 

[MossMan]

Had an intense shower around 12:30am or so, the temp dropped to 36 and it appeared to have positive splats in it. 
Anyway, currently 39 and cloudy. 
.07” so far on the day, 2.64” for the month. 
Sky has that “incoming snow” look about it right now. Just got done covering the hose bibs, and topped off the generator in case the snow load brings down branches. It’s coming!!! 
Oh and my yard color is definitely slightly delayed after looking at past pictures from this timeframe. My Rhododendrons are taking their time with fully blooming. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

12 hours ago, Kayla said:

Under a Winter Weather Advisory here. Expecting 6-12" of snowfall from tomorrow morning through Monday morning. Trees/shrubs are still completely dormant so thankfully we shouldn't have any sort of damage. Our grass is officially awake and green again though!

Lows look to drop into the teens on Tuesday morning. Records are in the low 20's next week so definitely possible that some record lows could fall. 

Snowfall bullseye looks to be centered right over Gallatin County.

 

Awesome.....we roll in to town Wednesday afternoon, I think I looked at Dark Sky and it showed next weekend being nice, but chances of rain (or snow I guess) through Friday.  My son is throwing a graduation/fairwell kegger Saturday at his house, so hopefully it is at least nice then.