May Winter Continue 2022 PNW

[MossMan]

53/36 on the day. 
Currently 42.

.27” on the day. 2.84” for the month. 
Mowed late this afternoon and left some muddy tracks in places but I knew I would not have time this week to do it. We could really use a few dry days in a row. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

31 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Except for today... not quite far south enough for a -10 departure.

So we’re just incredibly unlucky then? Why weren’t we as cold relative to normal here compared to all the other spots in the PNW? What makes this location unable to achieve double-digit negatives as often?

[Kayla]

Just measured another 7" this evening since this second wave hit about 3 hours ago. 11" on the day now and absolutely pouring snow still. The first wave that brought 4" of snow this afternoon melted down to 0.51" of liquid so this system is once again packing some serious moisture.

Garden boxes are just about buried again...

[Kayla]

If anyone wants to follow along it is also dumping in town.

https://www.americanbankmontana.com/bozeman-webcam

[TigerWoodsLibido]

40F with some steady rain. Nice, chilly evening. What were we forecast to get to today? We got up to 54F so still well below normal.

[Omegaraptor]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

40F with some steady rain. Nice, chilly evening. What were we forecast to get to today? We got up to 54F so still well below normal.

Corvallis forecast was I think 50. Eugene's was probably the same or maybe a degree or two warmer.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Omegaraptor said:

Corvallis forecast was I think 50. Eugene's was probably the same or maybe a degree or two warmer.

Dang, was hoping we could keep it under the forecast high. I'll try to make a note of the next time it happens.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

If any year is going to break the streak of warmer than normal Mays..it’s gonna be this one. 

Downtown LA had below normal Mays in 2015, 2016, 2018 and 2019.

[Omegaraptor]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Dang, was hoping we could keep it under the forecast high. I'll try to make a note of the next time it happens.

Eugene Mahlon only maxed at 52. CVO maxed at 50.

[Deweydog]

Latest sub-53 degree max at PDX since 2003 when they managed a 52 and 51 on the 16th and 17th.

To put that in perspective, Shia LaBeouf was starring at that time as a pubescent scofflaw in the movie Holes. IT’S BEEN A LONG TIME.

[Meatyorologist]

34 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

So we’re just incredibly unlucky then? Why weren’t we as cold relative to normal here compared to all the other spots in the PNW? What makes this location unable to achieve double-digit negatives as often?

It's just physics. The further you stray from the poles, the more moderated Arctic airmasses will be, and warmer airmasses will be less of a moderation from average. These two inherent facts make living at a lower latitude produce less anomalous weather, especially on the west coast.

Also, using NWS mapping, Springfield topped out around 51°F at the warmest. Most stations topped out in the upper 40s. Good for -15 to -20 on the day. That makes more physical sense than a -7 departure given the trajectory of this upper level system. A departure of -7 would imply a high temp in the low 60s, more than 10 degrees warmer than the rest of the Springfield area, and more akin to what was observed in Redding, CA today. No, I am not comparing to Mahlon Field.

The bad news is that your sensor ran wayyyyyy warm today. Might have to move it out of the sun. The good news is that in actuality your area got a -15 on the day, at the warmest! 

[Phil]

41 minutes ago, MossMan said:

53/36 on the day. 
Currently 42.

.27” on the day. 2.84” for the month. 
Mowed late this afternoon and left some muddy tracks in places but I knew I would not have time this week to do it. We could really use a few dry days in a row. 

You need to re-seed.

[Phil]

00z GFS looking better. Three systems plow through over the next 9 days, verbatim.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

33.3 moderate snow. lol 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

33.3 moderate snow. lol 

haha wow

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

33.3 moderate snow. lol 

Holy s**t man.

[Cascadia_Wx]

23 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Latest sub-53 degree max at PDX since 2003 when they managed a 52 and 51 on the 16th and 17th.

To put that in perspective, Shia LaBeouf was starring at that time as a pubescent scofflaw in the movie Holes. IT’S BEEN A LONG TIME.

They hit 53.

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

33.3 moderate snow. lol 

Trying not to litter this topic with recc posts but this needs to go up there

[Cascadia_Wx]

Also, for the record, PDX had a ridiculously late 50 degree max on 5/22/13

[The Blob]

45 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Downtown LA had below normal Mays in 2015, 2016, 2018 and 2019.

It was cooler in SoCal for 2015. We got married on the 16th. Kept watching the weather go from almost 90s to being in the 50s. It was still snowing in the mountains even after getting married, then June hit and it just got hot and stayed hot.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Also, for the record, PDX had a ridiculously late 50 degree max on 5/22/13

I think we can beat that this year if things break right. End of the month has potential to be intriguing.

[MossMan]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

You need to re-seed.

No I need it to stop raining for more than just 4 hours at a time. 

[MossMan]

Down to 38. 

[Omegaraptor]

27 minutes ago, Phil said:

00z GFS looking better. Three systems plow through over the next 9 days, verbatim.

Like how that trough sticks just offshore for a while. Good pattern if you want to see thunderstorms here. 2021 had about zero thunder activity.

Lol at that clown range 973mb low as well. Might as well tick off the windstorm box while we're at it!

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

No I need it to stop raining for more than just 4 hours at a time. 

I generally let the grass grow when conditions are very soggy. Absorbs moisture better and no damage from mower wheels.

[Phil]

This is a solid MJO/CCKW passage. In an ordinary year this would favor a substantial (albeit short lived) warm-up in the West.

But I guess this isn’t an ordinary year. For some reason these have been failing to stimulate a clean response in the middle latitude pattern.

Frankly I’m surprised. Both of the warm-ups I had anticipated over the last 3 weeks have failed.

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Also, for the record, PDX had a ridiculously late 50 degree max on 5/22/13

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Latest first 80 on record at PDX is June 12, 2010. Could be a record to watch?

34 sleeps to go…

[Omegaraptor]

Saw that John Day Basin snowpack was reported at 2617% of normal and just found out that those snowpack % numbers are based on the median, not the mean. Apparently the SWE median at that test site has fallen to 0, and they are at 1.4". So at this point any year above the median would output weirdly high snowpack percents.

The more you know!

[Cascadia_Wx]

29 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Latest first 80 on record at PDX is June 12, 2010. Could be a record to watch?

Also keeping a close eye on that record low annual max from 1954. It’s already May 8th. We’ve practically got it in the bag at this point.

[Meatyorologist]

30 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Latest first 80 on record at PDX is June 12, 2010. Could be a record to watch?

[Phil]

Today’s SOI was +34.57.

I think that’s the highest daily value yet. The persistence of this Niña background state is something to behold.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's just physics. The further you stray from the poles, the more moderated Arctic airmasses will be, and warmer airmasses will be less of a moderation from average. These two inherent facts make living at a lower latitude produce less anomalous weather, especially on the west coast.

Also, using NWS mapping, Springfield topped out around 51°F at the warmest. Most stations topped out in the upper 40s. Good for -15 to -20 on the day. That makes more physical sense than a -7 departure given the trajectory of this upper level system. A departure of -7 would imply a high temp in the low 60s, more than 10 degrees warmer than the rest of the Springfield area, and more akin to what was observed in Redding, CA today. No, I am not comparing to Mahlon Field.

The bad news is that your sensor ran wayyyyyy warm today. Might have to move it out of the sun. The good news is that in actuality your area got a -15 on the day, at the warmest! 

That station is up on Jasper Mtn at like 1000’ or so unless they updated it. I’ve no idea why it’s used erroneously in that location.

[Meatyorologist]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

This is a solid MJO/CCKW passage. In an ordinary year this would favor a substantial (albeit short lived) warm-up in the West.

But I guess this isn’t an ordinary year. For some reason these have been failing to stimulate a clean response in the middle latitude pattern.

Frankly I’m surprised. Both of the warm-ups I had anticipated over the last 3 weeks have failed.

In all fairness we will be warming by a substantial amount. From cold NPac airmasses to SW'lies and dirty ridging. May still bring slightly negative sfc departures under cloudcover, but these genuinely cold airmasses seem like they will be taking a break after the 13th.

[Meatyorologist]

KSEA down to 40°F, a bit ahead of where I thought they'd be considering yesterday morning cleared out better than last night despite a 40°F reading. Next hour or so could hit the 30s for the first time this May. Tomorrow night we get an arguably better shot to do so as clouds clear and heights gradually build aloft despite an absence of weather systems upstream.

[smerfylicious]

12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

KSEA down to 40°F, a bit ahead of where I thought they'd be considering yesterday morning cleared out better than last night despite a 40°F reading. Next hour or so could hit the 30s for the first time this May. Tomorrow night we get an arguably better shot to do so as clouds clear and heights gradually build aloft despite an absence of weather systems upstream.

When I left Gold Bar this morning, it was raining and 37. Cozy.

[snow maniac]

Brrr 32 and frosty this morning, my garden is not happy

[AlTahoe]

23F and windy this morning with 2.5" of snow on the ground. very impressive cold for May. 

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

23F and windy this morning with 2.5" of snow on the ground. very impressive cold for May. 

Your Sierra climate is really cool. If it weren't for it being so drought-prone I'd consider living there.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Keeps getting better