May Winter Continue 2022 PNW

[Cascadia_Wx]

Low of 37 here this morning despite mostly overcast skies. Pretty impressive 

[Meatyorologist]

13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Keeps getting better

[Meatyorologist]

13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Low of 37 here this morning despite mostly overcast skies. Pretty impressive 

A stellar May airmass.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z gfs was comically wet.

[TacomaWaWx]

Low of 38 this morning…coldest May low in 9 years. 

[AlTahoe]

36 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Your Sierra climate is really cool. If it weren't for it being so drought-prone I'd consider living there.

The drought periods def suck. But at the same time we have had 100"+ snow months 4 out of the last 6 years during a mega drought. The 80's drought didn't feature a single one. So it is way more feast or famine currently. 

[AlTahoe]

It always amazes me how big of difference there is in early or late season heat waves at elevation. For example the Euro shows Sacramento at 100-105F next Tuesday. While we are only going to get upper 60's to low 70's. In July or Aug when Sacramento hits 100F we are in the upper 80's to near 90F. 

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

It always amazes me how big of difference there is in early or late season heat waves at elevation. For example the Euro shows Sacramento at 100-105F next Tuesday. While we are only going to get upper 60's to low 70's. In July or Aug when Sacramento hits 100F we are in the upper 80's to near 90F. 

Very good reflection on how delayed upper level warming is compared to sea level. A solid one month or so seasonal lag between the two, on top of an already present 20-50 day lag at sea level.

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Didn't realize that was a thing. It doesn't seem like temps at high elevation sites in, say, the Inter-mountain West change more slowly as the seasons progress than temps at lower sites. They're colder overall, but change at about the same rate. Does the increased seasonal lag you're describing apply more to regions nearer the coast?

Good question, I'm not entirely sure myself, though I do have a good idea why ground observations in the intermountain west don't have as much of a lag. These stations are at ground level surrounded by similar or more prominent high elevation terrain, so there is lots of surface heating. A city like Denver for instance is going to be receiving air from upstream deserts where 100s of miles of high elevation terrain have warmed the 800-400mb column to the dry adiabat. This effect tracks most prominently with sun angles, thereby offsetting the upper level seasonal lag by few weeks.

An influx of monsoonal moisture may play a significant role as well, since it comes in right around or just after the solstice, and lowers max heating potential considerably, especially in AZ, UT, and NV.

I'd imagine prominent peaks along the coast such as Whitney or Shasta or Rainier max out in temperatures around August since they are consistently exposed to unmodified high altitude marine air. Pikes Peak in CO on the other hand may top out earlier, but I'm not sure.

[Kayla]

Ended up with 14" here in about 12 hours with a low of 27F this morning. If we can hold onto a good chunk of the snowpack today we could see some pretty impressive low temps tonight.

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Ended up with 14" here in about 12 hours with a low of 27F this morning. If we can hold onto a good chunk of the snowpack today we could see some pretty impressive low temps tonight.

gahdamn, intermountain west showing up big this morning!

[Phishy Wx]

 

[Phishy Wx]

 

[Phishy Wx]

 

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

@Phil wowwwww

[Phil]

27 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

@Phil wowwwww

Of course the cool anomalies underperformed said climo here. Ended up near average.  

Totally subjective but it feels like the heat monster is just waiting to get a foothold out here, and once it does we’ll be stuck with it until November. Goodnight Irene.

[ShawniganLake]

Cherry blossoms are starting to show their Colors here.  Seems a little late. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

40 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

But you're saying that all things being equal, temps at the 700mb level tend to warm more slowly in the spring than they do at the 1,000mb level, for example? It's just interesting to me, as I hadn't heard about that effect before.

There’s lots of factors but I’ve always been under the impression that the atmosphere is generally warmed from the bottom up. Which is short answer why places with elevation are colder overall. So the lag thing makes sense since it would take longer for heat to propagate up through the atmosphere, on top of the existing seasonal lag that even the surface experiences

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like Hillsboro just barely missed a freeze with a low of 33. Corvallis and McMinnville both got to 34.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

Looks like Hillsboro just barely missed a freeze with a low of 33. Corvallis and McMinnville both got to 34.

Six hour lows come out around 11am

[AlTahoe]

54 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

But you're saying that all things being equal, temps at the 700mb level tend to warm more slowly in the spring than they do at the 1,000mb level, for example? It's just interesting to me, as I hadn't heard about that effect before.

I never knew about it having grown up at sea level. Once I moved to Tahoe it became very apparent. That's why most residents of Tahoe get sick of the cold in May. Lower elevations are having pool parties and what not, and we still have to scrape ice off our windshields. I am headed to Vegas on Sunday were it will be 100F - 105F. Cant wait. 

[Skagit Weather]

As unusual as the weather has been this spring (and as snowy in the mountains), we have a ways to go until we get to the craziness of 2012. The graph below is from Easy Pass which is just above 5,000' in the North Cascades. The graph shows snow depths for the last 13 years where the black line is the current year, and the highest purple line is 2012. The snow depth up there which normally peaks in late April, peaked on June 3, 2012. There were also three separate sets of storms in late May/early June that year that added at least 10" of snow water equivalent to the snowpack. It's also pretty amazing that 125" of SWE on June 18th had completely melted out only 40 days later.

Meanwhile 2011 had the latest melt out with snow lasting until August 13, 2011.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Good question, I'm not entirely sure myself, though I do have a good idea why ground observations in the intermountain west don't have as much of a lag. These stations are at ground level surrounded by similar or more prominent high elevation terrain, so there is lots of surface heating. A city like Denver for instance is going to be receiving air from upstream deserts where 100s of miles of high elevation terrain have warmed the 800-400mb column to the dry adiabat. This effect tracks most prominently with sun angles, thereby offsetting the upper level seasonal lag by few weeks.

An influx of monsoonal moisture may play a significant role as well, since it comes in right around or just after the solstice, and lowers max heating potential considerably, especially in AZ, UT, and NV.

I'd imagine prominent peaks along the coast such as Whitney or Shasta or Rainier max out in temperatures around August since they are consistently exposed to unmodified high altitude marine air. Pikes Peak in CO on the other hand may top out earlier, but I'm not sure.

I’ve thought about this sort of thing a lot my self. It seems like relatively isolated areas of elevation (a mountain range like the Cascades or Sierras) are much more subject to the lag than broad areas with elevation (like the Colorado plateau). Even though these areas are high they get heated a lot more evenly and act as the “surface”, albeit elevated. I’ve looked at 850mb temp charts for places like Denver or Santa Fe before and it’s interesting how well 850s track with the diurnal cycle in these locations, as opposed to their relative consistency in our area, decoupled from the surface 

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’ve thought about this sort of thing a lot my self. It seems like relatively isolated areas of elevation (a mountain range like the Cascades or Sierras) are much more subject to the lag than broad areas with elevation (like the Colorado plateau). Even though these areas are high they get heated a lot more evenly and act as the “surface”, albeit elevated. I’ve looked at 850mb temp charts for places like Denver or Santa Fe before and it’s interesting how well 850s track with the diurnal cycle in these locations, as opposed to their relative consistency in our area, decoupled from the surface 

Yeah that’s how you get those EMLs over the Plains. High terrain heats the air around it which is subsequently advected eastward.

I think upper level temps over the Pacific may warm more slowly because the Pacific itself warms more slowly (vs over land), and those cooler upper level temps are advected over the CONUS more readily at that altitude.

[bainbridgekid]

It's amazing how the default setting has been thicknesses around 534-538 for the last several weeks and even more amazing there is still no clear end in sight. Hopefully things flip in a real way the last 10 days of the month.

[Cascadia_Wx]

29 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

It's amazing how the default setting has been thicknesses around 534-538 for the last several weeks and even more amazing there is still no clear end in sight. Hopefully things flip in a real way the last 10 days of the month.

We’re way overdue for a washout Memorial Day weekend 

[Kayla]

23 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

It's amazing how the default setting has been thicknesses around 534-538 for the last several weeks and even more amazing there is still no clear end in sight. Hopefully things flip in a real way the last 10 days of the month.

Well there is a pattern shakeup on the horizon just not a dry one. It still looks like on the 14th the pattern changes to more of a Southwesterly flow as heights try to build in the four corners region which means warmer temps but of course still wet in the PNW.

An actual sustainable ridge doesn't look likely through this month IMO.

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

But you're saying that all things being equal, temps at the 700mb level tend to warm more slowly in the spring than they do at the 1,000mb level, for example? It's just interesting to me, as I hadn't heard about that effect before.

Thermal energy takes time to propagate upwards and out into space. IIRC the Mesosphere is completely dipole to the solstice, peaking in temperature during boreal Winter. Could be wrong on that one though.

Avg temperature at 850mb+ peaks around August simply because thermal energy reserves both in the atmosphere and in the hydrosphere peak then. During late June through August, sun angles are decreasing, yet energy is still being added to the system. Sun angles fall behind that equation in Sept and don't look back until early Mar.

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Yeah that’s how you get those EMLs over the Plains. High terrain heats the air around it which is subsequently advected eastward.

I think upper level temps over the Pacific may warm more slowly because the Pacific itself warms more slowly (vs over land), and those cooler upper level temps are advected over the CONUS more readily at that altitude.

Yep. No high desert in the west, no cap over the plains, no severe thunderstorms. It's incredible how interconnected our country's weather is and even more incredible how much of a severe weather machine the plains are.

Literally every ingredient comes together on a regular basis due to topography. The high desert for an energy building/storing EML, the warmest body of water on Earth between 20-30°N in the Gulf of Mexico, the highly active Pacific jet at 200mb ejecting and exiting over the plains, right where these prime ingredients meet. Nowhere else on earth do these ingredients come together as frequently and efficiently, and you'd probably be hard pressed to find a similar climate from a palaeoclimatological/palaeometeorological perspective.

[Meatyorologist]

6 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Thanks, good explanation.

I could go on all day about this stuff! I love these questions that get me thinking. Every time I do, I end up making another important insight on meteorology that I'd never considered before, and realize just one step further just how much I don't know... Which of course is one of the sweetest fruits of life

[Omegaraptor]

Lol. My mom just texted me complaining about how cold it is. Apparently their indoor temp dropped to 62 overnight. Joking at this rate we might be skiing on Bachelor for the Fourth instead of enjoying the sun in Sunriver. Then again last summer was a big aberration with highs in the 90s every day I was there. Sunriver is usually known in Oregon for the cold, rather than the heat.

[Phishy Wx]

45 just had a graupel shower.  graupelling like crazy the last few days

[Omegaraptor]

50 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

It's amazing how the default setting has been thicknesses around 534-538 for the last several weeks and even more amazing there is still no clear end in sight. Hopefully things flip in a real way the last 10 days of the month.

Worth noting this current airmass isn’t even a coldest case scenario. Several model runs a few days ago were showing an even colder outcome. 

[Meatyorologist]

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

There’s lots of factors but I’ve always been under the impression that the atmosphere is generally warmed from the bottom up. Which is short answer why places with elevation are colder overall. So the lag thing makes sense since it would take longer for heat to propagate up through the atmosphere, on top of the existing seasonal lag that even the surface experiences

Yep. Air doesn't absorb visible or infrared light. Ground does, it absorbs the heat then gives it to the air. Lifted dust, ash, smoke, condensation, ect. of course do the same but aloft.

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’ve thought about this sort of thing a lot my self. It seems like relatively isolated areas of elevation (a mountain range like the Cascades or Sierras) are much more subject to the lag than broad areas with elevation (like the Colorado plateau). Even though these areas are high they get heated a lot more evenly and act as the “surface”, albeit elevated. I’ve looked at 850mb temp charts for places like Denver or Santa Fe before and it’s interesting how well 850s track with the diurnal cycle in these locations, as opposed to their relative consistency in our area, decoupled from the surface 

Yeah it seems the high desert creates its own "bubble" within its mixed layer, which is admittedly very deep during the warm season. In that bubble, annual temperature trends are more dependent on sfc heating and sun angles than whatever airmasses wander in at that altitude above sea level. Above the mixed layer you get to the environmental temperature which reflects more on atmospheric temp budget. The more prominent the peak, and the higher up it is, the more dependent your warming is on that budget. Whatever proportion a location there is dependent on either thermal system is probably a linear relationship favoring elevation, given how relatively linear the dry adiabat transgresses across the isotherms.

In other words, the desert floor will be within the mixed layer nearly all the time from when the sun first shows. Mt. Elbert on the other hand, standing proud at a cool 14,439', may only be within the mixed layer, oh I don't know, on the order of ~5% of the time? Maybe less? I don't have an exact figure, but I can guarantee it is much, much less than what you'd see in the Mojave desert. Therefore, the desert floor pretty much always warms based on sun angles, while Mt. Elbert is only affected by direct sfc warming (and consequently sun angles) ~5% of the time, therefore making it 5% dependent on sun angles and 95% dependent on temp budget. 100% and 0% for the desert floor respectively.

[Meatyorologist]

3rd wettest start to May at KSEA. Top three are all since 2009, though there are a few wet ones way back. Seems entirely random (shocker!)

[Skagit Weather]

35 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

We’re way overdue for a washout Memorial Day weekend 

The wettest day I've ever recorded remains May 28, 2010 which was the Friday before Memorial Day. I picked up 2.24" of rain on Friday and 3.25" from Friday-Monday that weekend. My high on Friday was 51, Saturday was 50, Sunday was 57, and Monday was slightly redeemed with 64. I was out in the San Juans Islands that weekend and it was a complete washout. It would be hard to have worse weather for Memorial Day weekend than that.

[Omegaraptor]

30” storm total at Timberline

[Meatyorologist]

Average high temperatures to start the month are the lowest since 2002. Completely adjacent to what we've seen in the last decade. Something has fundamentally changed this Spring.

[TT-SEA]

Really nice out right now.   Glad the models were wrong last week about snow here today.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like we got down to 36F. Nice night. Was anybody above that?