May Winter Continue 2022 PNW

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

We looked at 1999, 2008, and 2011 as recent analogs to this year.   Maybe another nasty Nina spring like this one is 2 or 3 years away... or 20 years away.    But its no longer due.   

Technically true.

But these patterns often cluster together intra-decadally. There’ll be an El Niño one of these next few years, and it’ll produce a warm summer in the West like 2009, then probably be followed by another multiyear La Niña. We’re in the intra-decadal cycle where the IPWP is retracted, and it should continue until sometime around solar maximum.

[BLI snowman]

35 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Being stoic does not mean having no preferences.   I prefer nicer weather... but totally accept that this was due.    Not much else to say.     And there are many pre-2013 summers that I would prefer compared to what we have seen recently.   I am not a fan of extreme heat or smoke.     My preferences are much more nuanced than you like to pretend. 

No snow after MLK Day plz 

[FroYoBro]

[TacomaWaWx]

60 degrees here for just the 3rd time this month…and 8th time since 4/1. 

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

No snow after MLK Day plz 

Valentines Day.

[TT-SEA]

Lovely afternoon now.  

[Omegaraptor]

3 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

why can't we get these persistent trough setups in January when it matters?

Might be a more productive and interesting topic than preference wars - but realistically, what would mid-April’s cold airmass have looked like in January? Is there any way of knowing given how different the wavelengths and general atmospheric setup is?

I asked Phil this but maybe it would produce some interesting discussion here too.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Might be a more productive and interesting topic than preference wars - but realistically, what would mid-April’s cold airmass have looked like in January? Is there any way of knowing given how different the wavelengths and general atmospheric setup is?

I asked Phil this but maybe it would produce some interesting discussion here too.

If it still had the onshore flow component it probably would have looked like December 2021, down this way at least. Now if we had gotten the late February setup in early January, that could have been something. 

[Deweydog]

So who won???

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

So who won???

Nature.    Always.

[Blizzard777]

3 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Classic anvil shaped thundercloud visible from Columbia Hills state Park this fine afternoon

So cool looking!!! Awesome shot Jesse

[Anti Marine Layer]

35 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

So who won???

Troughing

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

Might be a more productive and interesting topic than preference wars - but realistically, what would mid-April’s cold airmass have looked like in January? Is there any way of knowing given how different the wavelengths and general atmospheric setup is?

I asked Phil this but maybe it would produce some interesting discussion here too.

That’s a really tough comparison due to the fact that at some point in March we cross a threshold where maritime air masses become the driver when it comes to cold and offshore flow becomes an increasing inhibitor for low level cold advection. This was really apparent during the April event.  

[TacomaWaWx]

60/39 today…mean temp this month so far is 50.0 degrees. 

[T-Town]

Bella gives today’s weather a passing grade. 

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

So who won???

[TT-SEA]

Got the boat de-winterized today... latest ever for that event.    Might as well be ready if nature ever decides to throw us a 75-degree day.

I have a mobile boat service come to the house.    We have been using the same guy for years and he is so responsive and thorough.    Of course he mentioned the late start this year because it impacts his business... but he also told me about a great spot on the Snake River just east of the Tri-Cities that is very popular with Seattle area boaters.   I guess the Snake River is much warmer and cleaner than the Columbia and there are several state parks and campgrounds and its packed with boaters on summer weekends and there are lots of sandy beaches to pull up on with a boat.   He said they stay in a hotel in Richland or Pasco and boat during the day.    I told him never to mention the Tri-Cities to me again... its dirty and rundown and he should be embarrassed for even driving through there to get to the Snake River.   Did I do good Andrew?    

[Anti Marine Layer]

La Nina is the reason for the messed up seasons. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Beautiful evening 

[MossMan]

44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Got the boat de-winterized today... latest ever for that event.    Might as well be ready if nature ever decides to throw us a 75-degree day.

I have a mobile boat service come to the house.    We have been using the same guy for years and he is so responsive and thorough.    Of course he mentioned the late start this year because it impacts his business... but he also told me about a great spot on the Snake River just east of the Tri-Cities that is very popular with Seattle area boaters.   I guess the Snake River is much warmer and cleaner than the Columbia and there are several state parks and campgrounds and its packed with boaters on summer weekends and there are lots of sandy beaches to pull up on with a boat.   He said they stay in a hotel in Richland or Pasco and boat during the day.    I told him never to mention the Tri-Cities to me again... its dirty and rundown and he should be embarrassed for even driving through there to get to the Snake River.   Did I do good Andrew?    

Haven’t even thought about the boat yet, and probably won’t until June when we go east for a week. Being an outboard there really is no de-winterizing other than cleaning the mouse poop out and going for it. 
Or I might just leave it there for the mice to finish it off since it could be a cruel summer coming…

Anyhow .06” on the day, 2.91” for the month. 
58/41

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Haven’t even thought about the boat yet, and probably won’t until June when we go east for a week. Being an outboard there really is no de-winterizing other than cleaning the mouse poop out and going for it. 
Or I might just leave it there for the mice to finish it off since it could be a cruel summer coming…

Anyhow .06” on the day, 2.91” for the month. 
58/41

Should be good timing... go east in June and it will be perfect over the there.   And then should be really nice over here from July-Sept.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

-5 departure at PDX and SLE today.

[RentonHill]

21 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Haven’t even thought about the boat yet, and probably won’t until June when we go east for a week. Being an outboard there really is no de-winterizing other than cleaning the mouse poop out and going for it. 
Or I might just leave it there for the mice to finish it off since it could be a cruel summer coming…

Anyhow .06” on the day, 2.91” for the month. 
58/41

Oooh nice sandpiper!!

[MossMan]

10 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Oooh nice sandpiper!!

You want it? It’s my half brother in laws and they are selling it. Been stored at my place for years since they have no parking for it at their place. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Creek is full of life.

[T-Town]

51 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Haven’t even thought about the boat yet, and probably won’t until June when we go east for a week. Being an outboard there really is no de-winterizing other than cleaning the mouse poop out and going for it. 
Or I might just leave it there for the mice to finish it off since it could be a cruel summer coming…

Anyhow .06” on the day, 2.91” for the month. 
58/41

Bananarama!  

[Cascadia_Wx]

61/39 back at home with partly to mostly sunny skies and some big puffy clouds. Real stunner of a day.

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z EPS was still showing a nice troughy period next week 

Mean rises a bit toward average after that but there are still plenty of cool and wet members in the mix 

[Phil]

Monthly GEFS says everyone roasts except the PNW. Y’all will probably be considering yourselves lucky come July.

Poor Jared..that looks awful down there.

[Phil]

The SOI hit +41 today.  

[Thunder98]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

The SOI hit +41 today.  

I wish the SOI would be at -69 instead.

[Phil]

In fact, that SOI reading set a new all time record for the month of May.

Old record was from 1998, which was the start of a 4 year Niña/-ENSO regime.

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Monthly GEFS says everyone roasts except the PNW. Y’all will probably be considering yourselves lucky come July.

Poor Jared..that looks awful down there.

The GEFS has a monthly? Can’t imagine it being much better than the CFS

[snow_wizard]

Finally managed to dip below 40 here last night, and tonight is looking really good for a repeat.  Might even see some light frost if it remains clear all night.  Meanwhile the month to date average for SEA is currently at 49.9.  Very chilly indeed!

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The GEFS has a monthly? Can’t imagine it being much better than the CFS

I wasn't aware of that either.  I would think it might have better skill than the CFS due to higher resolution.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Finally managed to dip below 40 here last night, and tonight is looking really good for a repeat.  Might even see some light frost if it remains clear all night.  Meanwhile the month to date average is currently at 49.9.  Very chilly indeed!

Clearing skies and DPs in the 30s here. Tonight seems like our best shot at a frost with this trough, at least for this location. I know outlying areas have seen scattered areas of frost the last few nights.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

In fact, that SOI reading set a new all time record for the month of May.

Old record was from 1998, which was the start of a 4 year Niña/-ENSO regime.

Just looked at the current Nino 3.4 anoms.  -1.0 which is really robust for this time of year.  Also a full blown -PDO signature.  The best scenario for NW cold in a long time.

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I wasn't aware of that either.  I would think it might have better skill than the CFS due to higher resolution.

Not sure resolution matters much when you're talking monthlies.

[TacomaWaWx]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Finally managed to dip below 40 here last night, and tonight is looking really good for a repeat.  Might even see some light frost if it remains clear all night.  Meanwhile the month to date average for SEA is currently at 49.9.  Very chilly indeed!

39 here this morning and 38 yesterday morning. 54 and mostly clear here currently DP 40. 

[ShawniganLake]

We were blessed with an absolutely stunning day today. Mostly sunny and 61F with a nice breeze.  Thank you lord.